Marry, Cheat, Dump Week 16
Sometimes fixing problems in a relationship is a lot easier than winning your fantasy football league.
In this weekly column, PigksinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is going to dis
cuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (people you should trade away or drop).
This is it…week 16. Fantasy Championship week for many leagues. If you’ve made it this far, congratulations. You are the cream of the crop in your league. If not, better luck next year. For this week’s article, I’m going to focus on those flex level players that may make it or break it for you this week as sneaky plays.
QBs (Tony Romo, Sam Bradford, Eli Manning)
Marry – Sam Bradford
I talked about Bradford in last week’s article as a potential fill in for an injured RG3. If you listened you plugged him in for a nice 27 fantasy point day that hopefully supplanted your team into the fantasy championship.
This week Bradford faces a struggling Buccaneers secondary that has allowed 9 passing TDs and 930 passing yards over the last 3 games. Over these three games they’ve given up an average of over 26 points per game to the opposing QBs. One of those QBs was Nick Foles!
I expect the Rams to throw in this game as the Bucs run defense is actually pretty good. Bradford should have a nice day with my projections being 275 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT for a solid 18 fantasy points.
Cheat – Tony Romo
Tony Romo has quietly thrown for either 300+ yards or 2 or more TDs in 7 of his last 8 games.
DeMarco Murray is helping defenses stay honest and a juicy game against a terrible Saints secondary at home is a prime matchup for your fantasy championship.
In a previous Marry, Cheat, Dump article I talked about how Dez Bryant was statistically much better at home this year on turf than in away games (Away: 363 yards 4 TDs, Home: 724 yards 6 TDs). But what about Jason Witten? On the road this year Witten has 360 yards and 0 TDs. At home in the new Cowboys Stadium… 563 yards and 2 TDs.
The Dallas receivers are just much better at home, on the turf, then on the road. Given that this is a game against the Saints I fully expect this to be a shootout game where the Cowboys will throw a lot to keep up.
Start Tony Romo and don’t think twice.
Dump – Eli Manning
Speaking of Home/Road splits… I give you Eli Manning.
In Away games this year Eli has 68 fantasy points, good for less than 10 per game. In Home games, 118 points for almost 17 points per game! Only once this year has Manning either thrown for over 300 yards or more than one TD in an away game. By the way, that game was 12 weeks ago!
Stay away from Manning! I beg you! For the sake of your fantasy championship!
RBs (Michael Turner, Mikel Leshoure, Darren Sproles)
Marry – Darren Sproles
Can you believe I'm recommending you to Marry a RB that has not had over 7 carries in one game all year? Can you believe I am telling you to start him with confidence during the biggest game of your fantasy season? You betcha!
Despite not getting the carries, Sproles has been getting a lot of touches this year... especially in the Red Zone where he becomes their go-to-guy! In games that Sproles has played in he has the most Red Zone touches of anyone else on the Saints! In fact it’s not even that close! He has over 30% more touches in the Red Zone than each of the next two closest Saints players (Colston and Pierre Thomas)!
Cheat – Michael Turner
On the surface, there’s not much to like about Michael Turner. He hasn’t had over 16 carries since week 9, has been losing snaps to Jacquizz Rodgers, and is only averaging 3.7 YPC this year.
I’ll admit, I’m not a Turner fan. He gets burnt out every year in the second half of the season and this year is no different. He needs a TD to be fantasy relevant and I hate relying on guys like this as TDs are so unpredictable. That is unless you are Michael Turner…
Turner has a rushing TD in each of his last 5 games and 6 out of his last 7. When the Falcons get in close, they pound the ball with Turner. This week the Falcons face a Lions run defense that has allowed 8 rushing TDs in the last 4 games! 8! In those 4 games fantasy RBs have scored a total of 93 fantasy points!
Let’s assume a 65/35 split between Turner and Rodgers. Let’s assume they can continue the trend of those previous 4 games. This would mean Turner should score around 15 fantasy points while Rodgers chips in with another 8 or so. I’ll take a 15 fantasy point day from a RB all day during the fantasy playoffs and definitely in the championship.
Dump – Mikel Leshoure
Yet another TD dependent RB. Leshoure has only had 1 game over 100 yards rushing all year. That game was exactly 100 yards and happened way back in week 2. 4 of his last 5 games have gotten you double digit points but that is also because 4 of those 5 games had a rushing TD.
This week he faces an Atlanta run defense that has really stepped up the last two weeks. Atlanta’s allowed only 55.5 yards per game rushing the last two games to starting RBs. Leshoure’s season average is 57.9 yards per game. You can see where this is going.
I expect 50-60 yards rushing and 0 TDs for Leshoure this weekend.
WRs (TY Hilton, Brandon Lloyd, Larry Fitzgerald)
Marry – TY Hilton
In the beginning of the year Andrew Luck locked in on his first read (Reggie Wayne) and threw it his way all game, every game. In the first 12 games of the year Wayne only had 1 game with less than 6 receptions. Since then, Wayne has had 2 out of 3 games with less than 6 receptions. It’s easy to see that Luck is developing as an elite NFL QB and is beginning to look around more and spread the ball out.
One of the big recipients has been TY Hilton. 4 out of his last 5 games he’s scored double digit fantasy points. He has 361 yards and 4 TDs in those 5 games. This could be a preview of things to come for next year. If you extrapolate these last 5 games out over a 16 game season you’d have 64 receptions for over 1,150 yards and 13 TDS!
By the way, did I mention the Colts are playing the Chiefs this week? This matchup should produce fantasy gold for Hilton owners this week!
Reggie Wayne is not getting any younger and Andrew Luck is only going to get better.
Start Hilton this week and watch him as a great sleeper pick next year in your draft.
Cheat – Brandon Lloyd
Gronk should be back this week or next but I think his time away, and the injury to Edelman, has opened the door for Brandon Lloyd.
His fantasy owners have been waiting for this type of production all year! Now that he’s producing it, these same owners are scared to put him in their lineups because of the chance that he could go back to disappointing them.
Fear not! The Patriots face the hapless Jaguars this week. I expect Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley to be in Bill Belichick’s doghouse after their fumbling problems Sunday night. This means lots of Danny Woodhead. Woodhead looked good Monday night but I’ll be the first to tell you that he is more of a passing down RB then a runner. I know he put up great rushing numbers Sunday night, but that’s not his style of play.
But this article is not about Woodhead, it’s about Lloyd you say? Well with Woodhead in the backfield, I expect lots of passing situations from the Patriots. Belichick wants to prove that they are the team to beat after getting embarrassed on national TV by losing at home in what was at one point a blowout.
Lloyd has 25 targets in the last 2 games and is averaging over 8 targets per game. Brady really started throwing the deep ball to him more in the San Francisco game and they really appear to have a connection going now.
Dump – Larry Fitzgerald
Sigh… Larry Fitzgerald has to be one of the biggest, non-injury disappointments of the year. He’s got the elite talent but his QBs are just terrible. Kolb is now on IR so any chance of a “competent” QB throwing him the ball this year is over.
He hasn’t had a TD reception or over 35 yards receiving in a game since their bye week. Yes, you read that right…35 yards. To give you an idea of how bad 35 yards is…Braylon Edwards has caught for more than 35 yards in a game this year for 2 different teams!
About the Author - Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. He recently joined the team of featured writers at PigskinBoss.com. If you need help with your fantasy football relationships – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin
Fantasy Football Playoffs Favorables/Unfavorables Week 15
http://wp.me/p28Q2V-2HG
Dusty Bottoms is going to beat #FreeOcho
Count it
Week 15 TE & DST Plays
Ben Watson-Great wire pickup if you're looking for some points at TE this week. Watson has put up respectable numbers over the last 4 weeks and he's going against a Redskins defense that has been gene
rous to the tight end position as of late. I like him if you're looking for moderate numbers, but don't expect him to set the world on fire. PLAY
Vernon Davis-He's basically been removed from everyone's fantasy radar the last month, but I think Davis gets back on track against the Pats this week. They've consistenly allowed points to the TE, and Davis is still a top-5 TE when he sees targets. I think Harbaugh and co. will go out of there way to get Davis back in their offensive involvement and he'll score a TD for your team.
Bengals DST-I like the Bengals this week if you've been plug and playing defenses to the playoffs. The Eagles under Foles are pretty thin at offensive production and the Bengals will be highly motivated to make the playoffs. Expect them to force multiple turnovers and allow less than 21 points.
Rams DST-The Rams are not a team that typically jump off the page at you when you look for any fantasy options, but they're quitely trying to sneak into the wildcard. They play great at home in their dome and will force the Vikings to turn the ball over. I expect multiple sacks an interception and no more than 24 points allowed on the high end. Nice play on DST this week.
Fantasy Football: Outside the Box Volume 4
Fantasy Football: Outside the Box – Volume 4
By: Joel DePalma (@FFAdvisorapp)
12/11/2012
It’s week 15 and one round of the playoffs are in the books. Whether you are reading this to gra
b some insight for this week’s playoff game, or you are preparing your roster for your DYNATSY/KEEPER off-season, we have a unique perspective that you are unlikely to find elsewhere. Unlike what most “experts” will tell you, there is still ample opportunity to improve your team. For example, in one of my expert leagues, I started Knowshon Moreno and Vick Ballard as my 2 starting RBs. Needless to say, I bounced that other “pro” out of the playoffs and am gaining momentum at the perfect time. Whatever your unique angle is, here are few tips that most of your competitors will not be expecting:
CHASE THE MATCHUP.
Just about all of the experts I follow tell you to “trust your studs” come playoff time. In fact, I’ve given that same advice in the past. However, this year has turned out very different. Week after week, players are being plucked off of the waiver wire & contributing significantly to the owners that decided to roll the dice. To give you a few examples, players like Bryce Brown, Danario Alexander, Colin Kaepernick, T.Y. Hilton, Moreno and Ballard have all been counted on this post-season. Don’t be afraid to jump on the band wagon! If you “trusted your studs” and decided to roll with Ryan Matthews, Larry Fitzgerald, Ahmad Bradshaw or Marques Colston, chances are you aren’t still in the game. When the arrow is trending down on one of your veterans, switch it up and roll with the hot hand. This time of year you have to go with the points you can count on, you don’t have the luxury to wait and see.
DO NOT LEAVE POINTS ON THE TABLE.
This is not the first time I’ve written about this; it warrants the extra attention. TOO many owners are complacent this time of year and stick with the “what got here” approach. While that is all fine and dandy, don’t overlook easy areas to gain a few extra points. For example, if you own the 49ers or Bear’s D, you have likely set it and forget it all year. This week they are playing the Pats and Packers respectively and neither should be started. Also, DO NOT overlook the importance of kickers. In another league, I decided to roll with Matt Prater against my competitor who was starting Peyton Manning. While I admit it’s mostly luck, Prater almost matched Manning’s point total for the week and all but negated my opponent’s best player. Start a Defense playing a weak team & start a kicker playing in an expected high scoring affair.
SNEAKY WAIVER WIRE
As I alluded to earlier, there is still talent available in most leagues that you can pick up and use this week. Excluding the obvious (DeAngelo Williams, Colin Kapernick, and Knownson Moreno) players like Bilal Powell, Jacquizz Rodgers and Joique Bell are quietly on gaining larger slices of their offense. Other players like Jason Avant, Alshon Jeffrey (assuming Cutler is in the lineup), and Montell Owens are all showing a little flash and would be worth a shot if you don’t have anyone you can trust this week. If you need a player, all of these players are decent options this week.
Marry, Cheat, Dump Week 15
Sometimes fixing problems in a relationship is a lot easier than winning your fantasy football league.
In this weekly column, PigksinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is going to dis
cuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (people you should trade away or drop).
QBs (Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford)
Marry – Tom Brady
All home town biases aside, Tom Brady may arguably be the best fantasy QB this year; even better than RG3 and Drew Brees. Okay, maybe there’s a little bias in there, but man has he been good.
He continues to have a crazy 29 TD to 4 INT ratio and is on pace for a 4,700 yard passing season despite New England having a renewed focus to the run.
Here’s my case for him being the best fantasy QB this year…
Many people point to RG3 and Drew Brees, but one thing you want from a QB, especially in the fantasy playoffs, in consistency. Brady is the ONLY QB in fantasy that has not had a single digit fantasy game this year. Everyone, including Brees and Griffin, have had at least one disappointing game in the single digits that may have lost you a game that week. Just ask the Brees owners in week 13 when they may have been fighting their last chance at a playoff spot.
Many will speak to Griffin and Brees’ big game potential as another factor. Did you know that Brady has had as many 18 fantasy points or more games as RG3(8) and just 1 less than Brees(9).
To sum it up, Brady has been the most consistent QB all year, and still puts up the big game potential.
Cheat – Sam Bradford
I’m diving in deep this week for the Cheat QB. I get it. He’s not the sexy name you were expecting. And, if you’re still reading this, you are firmly entrenched in the fantasy playoffs and must have had better options to get you this far. But, if you are a RG3 owner worried about his health status for this upcoming week, you could do a lot worse than Bradford.
Again, when I’m in the playoffs I want consistency. I can’t afford a bomb of a week like Andrew Luck had last week. Bradford had 9 straight weeks of double digit points and faces 2 really bad pass defenses the next two weeks.
First up are the Vikings in St. Louis. I expect Amendola to be back for this game and the Vikings have allowed 13 passing TDs in the last 6 games. Amendola will be open for the underneath passes which will help draw the defense in for the deep passes to Chris Givens.
I expect 250 yards and 2 TDs which will get you a comfortable 18 fantasy points in a fill in role for RG3.
Dump –Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco is arguably the most consistent, inconsistent QB in fantasy.
At first glance his ups and downs are all over the place. He’ll throw for 300+ yards one week and follow it up with a 150 yard stinker the next. Fortunately, for us, I think I’ve figured out the up and down roller coaster that is Joe Flacco.
Here’s the secret… are you ready… Joe Flacco is great at home and terrible on the road.
Here’s a breakdown of his home vs. away games this year…
Home
1,800 passing yards 11 TDs to 5 Turnovers
Averaging 300 yards per game and 16.4 fantasy points per game
Away
1,420 passing yards 7 TDs to 7 Turnovers
Averaging 203 yards per game and 10.1 fantasy points per game
He does have his next two games at home but he can just not be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Chances are, if you have him, you’re not even in the playoffs.
RBs (CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley)
Marry – Stevan Ridley
Let me be clear about Stevan Ridley. I hate him. He was in my Dump in last week’s article. I still don’t believe that he’s going to have big yardage games against any of the tough remaining run defenses he’ll face. So why would I now Marry him? Hmmmmm…
I am an active Patriots fan. I watch their games every week religiously. This past Monday night, I went to the game to cheer them on.
What I’ve noticed is that the Patriots make an effort to run the ball when they get in the Red Zone. This year the Patriots lead the league in RB touches in the Red Zone with 103. Next closest is the Texans with 95.
Of those 103 touches, Ridley has 56 of them. In the 3 weeks Gronkowski has been out, Ridley has 12 touches to Vereen’s 5. Even all of the Patriot’s receivers only combine for 11 touches in the Red Zone in the last 3 weeks (Welker 6, Hernandez 4, Lloyd 1). As a result, Ridley has a rushing TD in 6 straight games and 9 TDs in his last 10 games.
He’s not going to get the rushing yards, only 1 100+ yard game in the last 8, but you can bank on 70-85 yards and a TD each week.
Cheat – Alfred Morris
Hey! Mike Shanahan! You want to win games…right? Then feed Morris the ball!
In games where Morris has 20+ carries, the Redskins are 6-1. In games where Morris gets less than 20 carries, they are 1-5. In the 7 games where he got at least 20 carries he went over 100 yards rushing in 5 of them.
Morris has gone over 100 yards in each of his last 3 games and faces the Browns, Eagles and Cowboys in the upcoming 3 weeks to finish out the season. All of which can be run on!
Dump – CJ Spiller
It looks like Fred Jackson is going to be out for the year and Spiller will be the bell cow back for the Bills again. So why does he end up in the Dump section?
Don’t get me wrong. I love CJ Spiller! I think he is a beast when being the lead back. Next year I see the Bills cutting Fred Jackson and his $5 million dollar contract and rolling with Spiller as the main guy. I’ll have him easily in my top 7 RBs next year (Foster, Peterson, Lynch, Richardson, Rice, Spiller, Charles…in that order).
What I don’t like this year is his remaining schedule. This week he faces the 4th best run defense against opposing RBs (Seattle) then faces a Miami run defense which was the top ranked run defense for much of the season. Both games will be close games, Spiller will get work and has the big play ability to break one at any moment but those run defenses will just be too much for the Bills offensive line to handle.
WRs (Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace)
Marry – Andre Johnson
Johnson started off the year slow but has really been picking it up the last few weeks. I wrote about him in the Cheat section of week 13 and he is still going strong!
At least 8 catches in 6 of his last 8 games! While the TDs have not been there they will come. In the meantime, Johnnson is a PPR Beast and an every week must start! Only thing you need to worry about is the Texans shutting down their stars once they clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Cheat – Mike Wallace
Wallace has been in Mike Tomlin’s doghouse for a little while now. But nothing will get him back in Tomlin’s good graces than the big games he gets when Ben Roethlisberger is playing.
In games where Roethlisberger was the QB this year, Wallace has 47 receptions for 644 yards and 8 TDs (10.5 games). With Roethlisberger out, Wallace has 12 receptions for 84 yards and 0 TDs (3.5 games).
Expect more good things now that Roethlisberger is back.
Dump – Marques Colston
He’s got an elite QB and is on a pass first team that’s averaging over 41 pass attempts a game and just cannot get anything done lately.
Since their bye in week 6, Colston only has 2 double digit fantasy games and has not had a 100+ yard receiving day. Since the bye he is third on the Saints team in receiving yards.
It’s hard to believe that he is still somehow has the 13th most fantasy points among WRs this year.
About the Author - Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. He recently joined the team of featured writers at PigskinBoss.com. If you need help with your fantasy football relationships – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin
Marry, Cheat, Dump Week 15
Sometimes fixing problems in a relationship is a lot easier than winning your fantasy football league.
In this weekly column, PigksinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is going to dis
cuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (people you should trade away or drop).
QBs (Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford)
Marry – Tom Brady
All home town biases aside, Tom Brady may arguably be the best fantasy QB this year; even better than RG3 and Drew Brees. Okay, maybe there’s a little bias in there, but man has he been good.
He continues to have a crazy 29 TD to 4 INT ratio and is on pace for a 4,700 yard passing season despite New England having a renewed focus to the run.
Here’s my case for him being the best fantasy QB this year…
Many people point to RG3 and Drew Brees, but one thing you want from a QB, especially in the fantasy playoffs, in consistency. Brady is the ONLY QB in fantasy that has not had a single digit fantasy game this year. Everyone, including Brees and Griffin, have had at least one disappointing game in the single digits that may have lost you a game that week. Just ask the Brees owners in week 13 when they may have been fighting their last chance at a playoff spot.
Many will speak to Griffin and Brees’ big game potential as another factor. Did you know that Brady has had as many 18 fantasy points or more games as RG3(8) and just 1 less than Brees(9).
To sum it up, Brady has been the most consistent QB all year, and still puts up the big game potential .
Cheat – Sam Bradford
I’m diving in deep this week for the Cheat QB. I get it. He’s not the sexy name you were expecting. And, if you’re still reading this, you are firmly entrenched in the fantasy playoffs and must have had better options to get you this far. But, if you are a RG3 owner worried about his health status for this upcoming week, you could do a lot worse than Bradford.
Again, when I’m in the playoffs I want consistency. I can’t afford a bomb of a week like Andrew Luck had last week. Bradford had 9 straight weeks of double digit points and faces 2 really bad pass defenses the next two weeks.
First up are the Vikings in St. Louis. I expect Amendola to be back for this game and the Vikings have allowed 13 passing TDs in the last 6 games. Amendola will be open for the underneath passes which will help draw the defense in for the deep passes to Chris Givens.
I expect 250 yards and 2 TDs which will get you a comfortable 18 fantasy points in a fill in role for RG3.
Dump –Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco is arguably the most consistent, inconsistent QB in fantasy.
At first glance his ups and downs are all over the place. He’ll throw for 300+ yards one week and follow it up with a 150 yard stinker the next. Fortunately, for us, I think I’ve figured out the up and down roller coaster that is Joe Flacco.
Here’s the secret… are you ready… Joe Flacco is great at home and terrible on the road.
Here’s a breakdown of his home vs. away games this year…
Home
1,800 passing yards 11 TDs to 5 Turnovers
Averaging 300 yards per game and 16.4 fantasy points per game
Away
1,420 passing yards 7 TDs to 7 Turnovers
Averaging 203 yards per game and 10.1 fantasy points per game
He does have his next two games at home but he can just not be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Chances are, if you have him, you’re not even in the playoffs.
RBs (CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley)
Marry – Stevan Ridley
Let me be clear about Stevan Ridley. I hate him. He was in my Dump in last week’s article. I still don’t believe that he’s going to have big yardage games against any of the tough remaining run defenses he’ll face. So why would I now Marry him? Hmmmmm…
I am an active Patriots fan. I watch their games every week religiously. This past Monday night, I went to the game to cheer them on.
What I’ve noticed is that the Patriots make an effort to run the ball when they get in the Red Zone. This year the Patriots lead the league in RB touches in the Red Zone with 103. Next closest is the Texans with 95.
Of those 103 touches, Ridley has 56 of them. In the 3 weeks Gronkowski has been out, Ridley has 12 touches to Vereen’s 5. Even all of the Patriot’s receivers only combine for 11 touches in the Red Zone in the last 3 weeks (Welker 6, Hernandez 4, Lloyd 1). As a result, Ridley has a rushing TD in 6 straight games and 9 TDs in his last 10 games.
He’s not going to get the rushing yards, only 1 100+ yard game in the last 8, but you can bank on 70-85 yards and a TD each week.
Cheat – Alfred Morris
Hey! Mike Shanahan! You want to win games…right? Then feed Morris the ball!
In games where Morris has 20+ carries, the Redskins are 6-1. In games where Morris gets less than 20 carries, they are 1-5. In the 7 games where he got at least 20 carries he went over 100 yards rushing in 5 of them.
Morris has gone over 100 yards in each of his last 3 games and faces the Browns, Eagles and Cowboys in the upcoming 3 weeks to finish out the season. All of which can be run on!
Dump – CJ Spiller
It looks like Fred Jackson is going to be out for the year and Spiller will be the bell cow back for the Bills again. So why does he end up in the Dump section?
Don’t get me wrong. I love CJ Spiller! I think he is a beast when being the lead back. Next year I see the Bills cutting Fred Jackson and his $5 million dollar contract and rolling with Spiller as the main guy. I’ll have him easily in my top 7 RBs next year (Foster, Peterson, Lynch, Richardson, Rice, Spiller, Charles…in that order).
What I don’t like this year is his remaining schedule. This week he faces the 4th best run defense against opposing RBs (Seattle) then faces a Miami run defense which was the top ranked run defense for much of the season. Both games will be close games, Spiller will get work and has the big play ability to break one at any moment but those run defenses will just be too much for the Bills offensive line to handle.
WRs (Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace)
Marry – Andre Johnson
Johnson started off the year slow but has really been picking it up the last few weeks. I wrote about him in the Cheat section of week 13 and he is still going strong!
At least 8 catches in 6 of his last 8 games! While the TDs have not been there they will come. In the meantime, Johnnson is a PPR Beast and an every week must start! Only thing you need to worry about is the Texans shutting down their stars once they clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Cheat – Mike Wallace
Wallace has been in Mike Tomlin’s doghouse for a little while now. But nothing will get him back in Tomlin’s good graces than the big games he gets when Ben Roethlisberger is playing.
In games where Roethlisberger was the QB this year, Wallace has 47 receptions for 644 yards and 8 TDs (10.5 games). With Roethlisberger out, Wallace has 12 receptions for 84 yards and 0 TDs (3.5 games).
Expect more good things now that Roethlisberger is back.
Dump – Marques Colston
He’s got an elite QB and is on a pass first team that’s averaging over 41 pass attempts a game and just cannot get anything done lately.
Since their bye in week 6, Colston only has 2 double digit fantasy games and has not had a 100+ yard receiving day. Since the bye he is third on the Saints team in receiving yards.
It’s hard to believe that he is still somehow has the 13th most fantasy points among WRs this year.
About the Author - Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. He recently joined the team of featured writers at PigskinBoss.com. If you need help with your fantasy football relationships – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin
FFB Playoffs-Week 14 DST and TE Strategy
It's week 14, which for many of you means the start of the win or go home fantasy playoffs. The smart moves and waiver plays may mean the difference between advancing to the semi finals and getting el
iminated until next season. Tight ends can often be that difference that puts you over the edge (See Brandon Myers week 13 results). Plugging in a hot defense is often the way to gain an advantage as well. All bets are off in the playoffs and unconventional is often the path toward advancing and winning a championship.
Tony Scheffler-If you’re looking for a sleeper in week 14, Scheffler may be your guy. With Ryan Broyle’s getting placed on the IR, both Scheffler and Pettigrew will see plenty of targets. If you’re looking toward upside, I think TS puts up 5-7 grabs and 70-80 yards.
Martellus Bennett-Bennett finally came through Monday night with a solid performance. Eli will be throwing early and often against the friendliest defense against the pass in the Saints. I expect BIG things from Martellus, and he’s readily available in many leagues. If you’re a Vernon Davis owner looking for an alternative, I’d start Bennett all day over him.
Cleveland Browns DST-The Kansas City Chiefs had a nice game last week after the unfortunate incident surrounding Javon Belcher, but I think they will return to form this week against the Browns. Brady Quinn and co. will turn the ball over multiple times and score less than 17 points. Pick the Browns up if you need to fill the gap at DST.
Houston DST-Going against the Patriots coming off of an off-week type performance in week 13 does not bode well for one of the more consistently performing defenses of the year. I think you look toward safer alternatives this week rather than ride the safe hand. SIT Houston this week and grab other plays like CLE, STL or ARI, all of which I like over Houston this week.
Week 14 Marry, Cheat, Dump
Sometimes fixing problems in a relationship is a lot easier than winning your fantasy football league.
In this weekly column, PigksinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is going to dis
cuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (people you should trade away or drop).
QBs (Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton)
Marry – Andrew Luck
I wrote about how I loved Andrew Luck back in the Week 9 Marry, Cheat, Dump column. Hopefully you heeded my words and have been starting him! He’s been a stud!
It’s very possible that you drafted Luck to be your backup QB or part of a Quarterback by committee with either Rivers, Romo, or Roethlisberger. Here’s why you should start him throughout the rest of the year over these guys…
First, he faces the Titans this week. The Titans have given up multiple passing touchdowns in 9 out of 12 games this year. The Titans have arguably the worst pass defense in the league.
Next is the Houston Texans. While they have been known for their strong pass defense they have actually given up 1,128 passing yards in their last three games. That’s an average of 376 yards a game! That’s also considering that 2 of the 3 QBs were Chad Henne and Jake Locker! He faces the Texans again in week 17.
Week 16 he faces a soft Kansas City pass defense that has allowed multiple passing TDs in 11 of 13 games this year. QBs are averaging over 18 points a game against them.
Cheat – Cam Newton
He’s been in the Marry section of previous Marry, Cheat, Dump articles. He’s a stud.
He’s got easy matchups the remaining 4 weeks and has scored 28 points last week and 37 points the week before. Superman is back and just in time for your fantasy playoffs.
Dump –Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan has fallen from my good graces and fallen hard! In the last three weeks, against 2 reasonably easy pass defenses, Ryan have thrown 6 INTS and only 2 TDs and is averaging only 9 fantasy points.
Chances are if you have him, you’re starting him because you haven’t needed another QB up until now and don’t have a better option. If you had Luck on your bench, or a guy like Colin Kaepernick is somehow still available on your waiver wire, then get Ryan out of your lineup.
RBs (Jamaal Charles, Michael Turner, Bryce Brown)
Marry – Jamaal Charles
Another guy that I’ve been talking up all year in my Marry, Cheat, Dump.
His main concern this season has been his workload. Certainly the last 4 weeks have answered that call as he had 23, 21, 23, and 31 touches. He’s got an easy schedule and will be a lock for 100+ total yards each week if this workload keeps up.
Cheat – Bryce Brown
LeSean McCoy will be back this year and will be the bell cow when he does, but in the meantime, how about Bryce Brown? 372 total yards in the last two weeks, 51 touches and 4 TDs. Quite the performance! He has had fumbling problems, but with numbers like that who cares?!?
He’s an every week must start until McCoy returns.
Dump – Michael Turner
Turner hit the wall in the second half of last year and has hit it again this year.
Over the last 4 games he only has 1 game with more than 13 carries. He’s still getting more carries than Jacquizz Rodgers and the TDs have been saving your fantasy weeks but he only has 1 game over 50 yards in those 4 games and is averaging just 3.0 YPC during those 4 games. He just cannot be trusted throughout your fantasy playoffs.
WRs (Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, Chris Givens)
Marry – Chris Givens
You know that girl in high school that was never popular and never really got much attention, then 10 years later you find her on Facebook and she’s blossomed into this beautiful woman that you can’t believe you passed on? Meet Chris Givens.
He’s done consistently well all year. Exactly what you want during the fantasy playoffs…consistency. He has scored at least 8 fantasy points in all but 2 games he’s played in this year.
Since week 10, when the Rams suspended him for the game, he’s 16th in the NFL in targets and has more targets than the following notable players: Vincent Jackson, Hakeem Nicks, Marques Colston, Denarius Moore, Jimmy Graham, Miles Austin, and Victor Cruz.
He’s caught at least 3 passes in every game since week 6 and has had at least 63 yards in all of those games but one. If you’ve been ravaged by injury, you can do far worse than Chris Givens.
Cheat – Cecil Shorts
Chad Henne took over as the QB mid-way through the week 10 game vs. the Colts and Shorts has been Henne’s main target ever since. Many will point to Justin Blackmon’s breakout game in week 11 as Henne’s main squeeze but look at the numbers in all 4 games.
Shorts has out targeted Blackmon 38 to 30. He’s scored at least 13 points in each of those four games and has had 368 receiving yards and 4 TDs in those games. It should come to no surprise that the Jaguars will continue to be behind throughout much of their remaining games. Now on their 4th string RB, it’s quite evident that they will abandon the run even earlier allowing for more targets and more yards for Shorts.
Continue to monitor his concussion situation but if he’s in the game you must start him.
Dump – Denarius Moore
It should come as no surprise that Moore was benched during their week 13 game against Cleveland. In the last 3 games he’s caught just 4 of his 19 targets for just 60 yards. He’s been battling a case of the “dropsies” all year.
He’s elite talent with elite speed and could be a game changer in the NFL very soon, but for now he needs to regain his coach’s confidence and stop dropping balls. Until he does, he should remain on your bench too.
About the Author - Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. He recently joined the team of featured writers at PigskinBoss.com. If you need help with your fantasy football relationships – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin
Not just a fantasy - The 2013 Super Bowl
I'm new here but thought I'd get my profile kick started with a press release from a company I work for http://www.sb-tickets.com/ that was posted at http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013-super-bowl-tick
ets/sb-tickets/prweb10188197.htm. I thought some of the folks here might be going this year.
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Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings, Which Matchups to Exploit, Which to Avoid
Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings, Which Matchups to Exploit, Which to Avoid
Week 13 of Fantasy Football did not start off the way we all planned. Thursday night’s game between the Falcon
s and Saints let a lot of owners wishing for more this holiday season. In a game that featured two of the top seven quarterbacks, the league’s best tight end and a slew of top notch wide receivers, the person that leads scoring in week 13 so far is…Matt Bryant, the kicker from the Atlanta Falcons. Bryant ended the game with 14 points, that’s more than Roddy White (2), Drew Brees (3), Julio Jones (4) and Darren Sproles (4) combined!
Week 13 has “shoot-out” written all over it as several of the league’s top scoring offenses matchup against bottom ranked defenses. Some matchups that stand out are Denver facing Tampa’s generous passing game, Eli squaring off against the 3rd worst pass defense in the Redskins and Aaron Rodgers against the Vikings that have allowed 18 passing TDs on the season.
While the field generals have some nice matchups, several top tier running backs don’t fare as well. Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Stevan Ridley, Ray Rice, Alfred Morris, Chris Johnson and Marshawn Lynch all face defenses ranked inside the top 10 against the running back position. Lynch has the worst of these matchups vs. the Bears that only allow 13.6 points per game to opposing running backs while Martin has the best matchup of this group facing the Broncos that only give up15.5 points per game. Those are not generous numbers when you consider those are total running back points allowed to the position. That means 15.5 points allowed to all of Tampa’s running backs, Martin, Blount and Ware.
Look for some regression this week in the running back scoring and perhaps choose that wide receiver with a posh matchup over the top 20 running back as your flex spot. Let’s get into the matchups to determine which ones you should exploit, and which you should avoid.
QUARTERBACKS
Matchups to Exploit:
Eli Manning faces the Redskins this week that give up 307 yards a game and 22 touchdowns through 11 games. RGIII should be able to keep the Redskins in scoring position so Eli will have to keep up. Eli has had a rough season but last week after coming off his bye he threw for 249 yards and three touchdowns. Expect another good game this week as Eli gets back to a top 10 ranking.
Tony Romo squares off against the Eagles this week that have been torched their last two games by Cam Newton and RGII for a combined 506 yards and six passing touchdowns. The Eagles have allowed 20 passing touchdowns this season and only have 7 interceptions. Romo threw for 441 yards and three touchdowns in a favorable matchup last week, expect another solid performance.
Cam Newton plays the Kansas City Chiefs that rank 24th in defending the QB position. They allow 17.2 points a game to QBs. Cam has turned things on his last two games where he’s passed for a combined 558 yards, three touchdowns while adding 92 yards rushing and two rushing scores. Cam has slowly worked his way up to 6th in total QB points, look for him to keep that upward trend going.
Matchups to Avoid:
Phillip Rivers faces the Bengals that have only allowed 13 passing touchdowns through 11 games and have 8 interceptions. Rivers has only exceeded 17 points three times this season and he’s scored fewer than 15 points in 5 of his last 6 games. Don’t let your playoff hopes rest in this Chargers hands.
Colin Kaepernick has been a great find scoring over 20 points two weeks in a row. However, Kaepernick has a very tough matchup this week vs. the Rams that have 12 interceptions through 11 games. The Rams only give up 149 yards a game to wide receivers so if Kaepernick is going to succeed, it’s going to be with dump offs to Gore and with his own legs. This might be a good week to let Kaepernick ride the pine instead of hitting the well one to many times.
RUNNING BACKS
Matchups to Exploit:
Trent Richardson faces the Raiders that have been unable to stop running backs all season. They allow 164 yards a game and 14 rushing touchdowns through 11 games. Richardson has met or exceeded 85 yards rushing in his last four games and he’s averaging 131.5 yards a game over that span including his receiving yards. Richardson is a low end RB1 this week.
C.J. Spiller plays the Jaguars that rank 28th in defending the RB position. They give up 22.4 points per game to opposing RB’s and Chan Gailey is firmly on board with Spiller getting the majority of the carries. Spiller has eclipsed the century mark in yards from scrimmage for 6 straight games. Spiller has RB1 potential but his five touchdowns leave owners wanting a little more. Still the potential is off the charts and Spiller needs to be in your line up.
Jamaal Charles should excel this week facing a Panthers team that ranks 26th vs. running backs. Does the name Bryce Brown ring a bell? It should because Brown, a small, shifty running back similar in style to Charles, just rattled off 178 yards rushing with two touchdowns against this Panther defense last week. Look for Charles to break a couple long runs and have a big day.
Matchups to Avoid:
Steven Jackson faces the league’s best rushing defense in the 49ers this week. They allow 108 yards a game to RBs and have only allowed three rushing touchdowns all season. This should be a defensive battle and if Kaepernick is able to keep the 49ers in front, Jackson will be playing catch-up which is not his strong suit.
Matt Forte welcomes the Seahawks to town who have only allowed six rushing touchdowns on the season. Last week Forte left the game with a sprained ankle and while he’s been practicing this week, one bad hit and he could leave the game again. With the play offs on the line, don’t risk a roster spot on a player that’s underperformed all season (Forte currently ranks 20th in RB scoring) and is one hit away from being carted off the field.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Matchups to Exploit:
Demaryius Thomas faces Tampa Bay that gives up 224 yards a game to wide receivers. They allow 28.4 points a game to opposing wide outs and Thomas has emerged as Peyton Manning’s go to receiver. He’s scored in his last two games and ranks 10th in targets the last three weeks. Thomas and Decker should both have solid weeks against the Bucs. Thomas is a high end WR1 while Decker is a high end WR2.
Hakeem Nicks matches up against the Redskins that rank 31st defending the WR position. The Redskins have allowed 13 touchdowns through 11 games and Nicks is coming on strong after being out with a foot injury as he ranks 12th in targets over the last three weeks. Nicks has reached 75 yards receiving his last two games and scored last week.
Cecil Shorts is the hottest thing going lately as he ranks 5th in scoring the last three weeks averaging 15.7 points a game. Shorts has scored in three straight and eclipsed 80 yards receiving in each of those games. Cecil plays the Bills that rank 22nd vs. wide receivers giving up 192 yards a game. Shorts is a high end WR2 this week.
Matchups to Avoid:
Larry Fitzgerald has hit an all-time low. He ranks 4th in targets but only 31st in scoring on the season. It used to be said that it didn’t matter who Fitz’s quarterback was as he was just too skilled but Lindley has proven that’s not the case. Since taking over the reins Lindley connects with Andre Roberts much more than Fitzgerald. The last three weeks Roberts ranks 64th in points while Fitz ranks 96th. Fitzgerald has under 55 yards receiving in four of his last five games. This week Fitz faces the Jets that only allow 135 yards a game to wide receivers, make alternate plans.
Mike Williams hot streak seems to have run its course. He has not reached 70 yards receiving in six straight games and he has not scored in his last three. This week Williams faces the Broncos that rank 6th against wide receivers and have only allowed 8 touchdowns through 11 games.
TIGHT ENDS
Matchups to Exploit:
Owen Daniels faces the Titans this week that give up 66 yards a game to tight ends and eight touchdowns through 11 games. Daniels has scored in three of his last four games and reached 50 yards receiving in three of those four. Daniels only has two games under 46 yards receiving this year so he’s a solid, consistent play.
Anthony Fasano squares off against the Patriots that rank 31st against the tight end and allow 72 yards receiving a game. Miami should be down in this game and passing often to keep up. The Pats have allowed seven touchdowns through 11 games and while Fasano might not get in the endzone, he’s a good bet for a solid yardage day.
Matchups to Avoid:
Brandon Myers plays the league’s best defense against the tight end in the Cleveland Browns. They allow a paltry 5.4 points per game and less than 43 yards per game. Myers only has three scores on the season so yardage is his crutch. It doesn’t look like the yards are going to come this week so make other plans if you can.
Send me a tweet or leave a comment below and let me know if you agree or see things differently. If you know of an article you’d like to see, hit me up, I’m all ears.
For full position rankings including top 150 FLEX spots check out http://www.FantasyFootballCounselor.com
You can find me on twitter @FFCounselor and if you like what you see in the content and the site, help me out and give me a follow and a retweet now and then.
Feel free to shoot me start/sit questions or any other fantasy football questions, I’m always up for a good discussion and always answer my tweets. Good luck in week 13!
Below is the full line-up for week 13 matchups. The charts below read as follows: Players Rank vs. the defense they are facing at that position (QB, RB, WR, TE) Team Name, Opponent, Team Studs, and Matchups to watch.
A rank of 1 means the player has the best matchup and the defense gives up the most points to the position. A rank of 32 means the player is facing the best defense and they give up the fewest points to the position. I’ve mentioned it before but for all you new readers, I’m not ranking Brandon Weeden over Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning, it’s just that Weeden has better matchup due to the defense he’s facing.
Quarterbacks
1 - Saints vs. Falcons ---> Ryan
2 - Raiders vs. Browns ---> Weeden
3 - Redskins vs. Giants ---> Eli
4 - Eagles vs. Cowboys ---> Romo
5 - Vikings vs. Packers ---> Rodgers
6 - Titans vs. Texans ---> Schaub
7 - Buccaneers vs. Broncos ---> Manning
8 - Bills vs. Jaguars ---> Henne
9 - Chiefs vs. Panthers ---> Newton
10 - Jaguars vs. Bills ---> Fitzpatrick
11 - Patriots vs. Dolphins ---> Tannehill
12 - Colts vs. Lions ---> Stafford
13 - Chargers vs. Bengals ---> Dalton
14 - Dolphins vs. Patriots ---> Brady
15 - Browns vs. Raiders ---> Palmer
16 - Giants vs. Redskins ---> RGIII
17 - Packers vs. Vikings ---> Ponder
18 - Lions vs. Colts ---> Luck
19 - Rams vs. 49ers ---> Kaepernick
20 - Texans vs. Titans ---> Locker
21 - Jets vs. Cardinals ---> Lindley
22 - Cowboys vs. Eagles ---> Foles
23 - Panthers vs. Chiefs ---> Quinn
24 - Broncos vs. Buccaneers ---> Freeman
25 - Bengals vs. Chargers ---> Rivers
26 - Falcons vs. Saints ---> Brees
27 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Batch
28 - 49ers vs. Rams ---> Bradford
29 - Cardinals vs. Jets ---> Sanchez
30 - Seahawks vs. Bears ---> Cutler
31 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Flacco
32 - Bears vs. Seahawks ---> Wilson
Running Backs
1 - Bills vs. Jaguars ---> Jennings
2 - Saints vs. Falcons ---> Turner
3 - Raiders vs. Browns ---> Richardson
4 - Titans vs. Texans ---> Foster
5 - Jaguars vs. Bills ---> Spiller
6 - Jets vs. Cardinals ---> Wells
7 - Panthers vs. Chiefs ---> Charles
8 - Falcons vs. Saints ---> Thomas, Ingram
9 - Chiefs vs. Panthers ---> DWilliams
10 - Colts vs. Lions ---> Leshoure
11 - Rams vs. 49ers ---> Gore
12 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Dwyer
13 - Bengals vs. Chargers ---> Mathews
14 - Browns vs. Raiders ---> Reece, McFadden
15 - Packers vs. Vikings ---> Peterson
16 - Buccaneers vs. Broncos ---> Moreno
17 - Cowboys vs. Eagles ---> Brown
18 - Lions vs. Colts ---> Ballard, Brown
19 - Vikings vs. Packers ---> Starks
20 - Chargers vs. Bengals ---> BJGE
21 - Cardinals vs. Jets ---> Greene
22 - Patriots vs. Dolphins ---> Bush, Thomas
23 - Eagles vs. Cowboys ---> Jones, Murray
24 - Broncos vs. Buccaneers ---> Martin
25 - Redskins vs. Giants ---> Bradshaw
26 - Dolphins vs. Patriots ---> Ridley
27 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Rice
28 - Seahawks vs. Bears ---> Forte
29 - Giants vs. Redskins ---> Morris
30 - Texans vs. Titans ---> CJ1k
31 - Bears vs. Seahawks ---> Lynch
32 - 49ers vs. Rams ---> Jackson
Wide Receivers
1 - Buccaneers vs. Broncos ---> Thomas, Decker
2 - Redskins vs. Giants ---> Nicks, Cruz
3 - Saints vs. Falcons ---> White, Jones
4 - Patriots vs. Dolphins ---> Hartline, Bess
5 - Colts vs. Lions ---> Johnson, Broyles
6 - Giants vs. Redskins ---> Moss, Morgan
7 - Browns vs. Raiders ---> Moore, DHB
8 - Packers vs. Vikings ---> Simpson
9 - Bills vs. Jaguars ---> Blackmon, Shorts
10 - Jaguars vs. Bills ---> Johnson
11 - Titans vs. Texans ---> Johnson
12 - Raiders vs. Browns ---> Little, Gordon
13 - Texans vs. Titans ---> Britt, Washington
14 - Chargers vs. Bengals ---> AJ Green, Sanu
15 - Eagles vs. Cowboys ---> Bryant, Austin
16 - Cowboys vs. Eagles ---> Maclin, Avant
17 - Chiefs vs. Panthers ---> Smith, Lafell
18 - Dolphins vs. Patriots ---> Welker, Lloyd
19 - Lions vs. Colts ---> Wayne, Avery, Hilton
20 - Cardinals vs. Jets ---> Kerley
21 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Wallace, Brown
22 - Vikings vs. Packers ---> Nelson, Cobb, Jennings
23 - Rams vs. 49ers ---> Crabtree, Manningham
24 - Jets vs. Cardinals ---> Fitzgerald, Roberts
25 - Bears vs. Seahawks ---> Tate, Rice
26 - Panthers vs. Chiefs ---> Bowe
27 - Broncos vs. Buccaneers ---> Jackson, Williams
28 - 49ers vs. Rams ---> Amendola, Gibson, Givens
29 - Bengals vs. Chargers ---> Floyd, Alexander
30 - Falcons vs. Saints ---> Colston, Moore
31 - Seahawks vs. Bears ---> Marshall, Hester
32 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Smith, Boldin
Tight Ends
1 - Broncos vs. Buccaneers ---> Clark
2 - Patriots vs. Dolphins ---> Fasano
3 - Redskins vs. Giants ---> Bennett
4 - Titans vs. Texans ---> Daniels
5 - Lions vs. Colts ---> Allen
6 - Raiders vs. Browns ---> Watson
7 - Jets vs. Cardinals ---> King
8 - Bengals vs. Chargers ---> Gates
9 - Saints vs. Falcons ---> Gonzalez
10 - Vikings vs. Packers ---> Finley
11 - Falcons vs. Saints ---> Graham
12 - Texans vs. Titans ---> Cook
13 - Buccaneers vs. Broncos ---> Dreesen
14 - Seahawks vs. Bears ---> Davis
15 - Bills vs. Jaguars ---> Lewis
16 - Panthers vs. Chiefs ---> Moeaki
17 - Rams vs. 49ers ---> Davis
18 - Dolphins vs. Patriots ---> Hernandez
19 - Chiefs vs. Panthers ---> Olsen
20 - Giants vs. Redskins ---> Paulsen
21 - Jaguars vs. Bills ---> Chandler
22 - Bears vs. Seahawks ---> Miller
23 - Eagles vs. Cowboys ---> Witten
24 - Colts vs. Lions ---> Pettigrew
25 - Cowboys vs. Eagles ---> Celek
26 - Packers vs. Vikings ---> Rudolph
27 - Chargers vs. Bengals ---> Gresham
28 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Miller
29 - Cardinals vs. Jets ---> Keller
30 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Pitta
31 - 49ers vs. Rams ---> Kendricks
32 - Browns vs. Raiders ---> Myers
Messy Backfields and the Playoffs
Most of us have had to deal with lingering injuries to RB's and weekly waiver wire additions to fill the holes. It now seems some impact RB's will be returning this week or returning just in time for
a playoff run. Let's take a look at how to deal with these jumbled backfields and how it can effect your outcome toward your championship run.
Falcons-Michael Turner/Jacquizz Rodgers - We've been wondering if Rodgers would eventually take over for Michael "Murder" Turner or at least get the majority of the carries. Turner looked like his old self last night as he had 12 carries for 83 yards with a TD, compared to Rodgers who had 8 carries for 43 yards. Rodgers will get touches each week due to his explosiveness, but Turner is still the featured back for the Falcons, especially in the red zone. Stick with Turner from here on out and be hopeful he'll find the end zone at least once over the next few weeks.
Raiders-Darren McFadden/Marcel Reece - Reece has filled in very nicely in McFadden's absence. Since week ten Reece has a combined 37 fantasy points in standard league's and has topped the 100-yard mark on the ground once. However, McFadden will get his touches if ready to go in week thirteen, meaning Reece should only be considered a start in PPR formats. I'd personally steer clear of both players this week, and if McFadden shows this week he can contribute then he's a must start for the playoffs.
Cowboys-DeMarco Murray/Felix Jones - I am thrilled to hear Murray will be back this week and am hopeful he is healthy moving forward. Since going down week six in Baltimore, the Cowboys have been lost in the ground game. Since Jones took over for Murray he has scored 3 TD's on the ground, hasn't hit the century-mark for yards in a game, and has had less than ten carries twice in six starts. Murray will be a factor for the Cowboys and his presence may just be what Dallas needs to possibly win out and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Jaguards-Maurice Jones-Drew/Rashad Jennings - MJD has a good chance of returning in week fourteen. The Jacksonville Jaguars and the fantasy owners who have kept MJD on their bench will be thrilled to see him back on the field. This week will mark the sixth straight week MJD has been out with a foot injury, and the Jags have struggled mightily on the ground since his absence. Rashad Jennings has only topped 50 yards once in five starts and has just 2 TD's. Jalen Parmele had a good start against the Texans in week eleven but is now on season-ending IR.
Point is, when the starters are healthy they should be in your starting lineup. Turner, McFadden, Murray, and Jones-Drew are all must starts when they return to action. These players may make the differnce between a four point win or a four point loss in your playoff matchups. Good luck to everyone this week if you're jocking for a playoff position.
Fantasy Football: Outside The Box _ Volume 2
Fantasy Football: Outside the Box - Volume 2
By: Joel DePalma (@FFAdvisorapp)
We are entering week 10, it is time to put the petal to the floor and go all out. I’ve heard f
rom a lot of you this season; many of you are struggling with mediocrity and battling to stay above the .500 mark. Whether this is your situation or you are trying to maintain your momentum, this is the time to focus. As I have said each week: you are only as good as your next week, not last week’s win or loss. This is the last time to make a substantial change that will effect change in your league; here is what you should do:
TRADE ADRIAN PETERSON & RGIII.
This is the time to trade both of these studs. Let’s start with RG3. It’s easy to see the beginning of his decline in production. His talent jumps off the page, but the NFL season is longer and players are smarter than college. RG3’s production will continue to decline. To further emphasize this point; let’s examine how other top rookie QBs have performed in this part of their inaugural season. In 2011 and Cam Newton’s last 3 games, he didn’t throw for more than 175 yards and only rushed for 1 TD (remember the huge start to his season). In 2010 and Sam Bradford’s last 5 games, he threw 1 TD and 6 INTs and averaged 209 yards p/game. In 2009 and 5 of Matt Stafford’s last 6 games, he threw more INTs then TDs and didn’t exceed 225 yards. In 2008 and Matt Ryan’s last 4, he averaged 203 yards p/game and had a similar INT/TD ratio. No one doubts the skills of any of these QBs, but the fact of the matter is his fantasy production is more likely to recede then get better. Also, he was probably drafted as your #2 QB. Trade him for depth and roll with the QB1 you drafted.
Now let’s talk about AP. Wow did he look good in week 9 and his injury doesn’t seem to be a concern. The injury note that is more significant happened to Percy Harvin, arguably the most important player on that team. Without Harvin in the lineup for the next few weeks, defenses will have no reason to respect the outside game and will stack the box against AP. Also, look at his matchups over the next 5 games. He plays Chicago twice, Houston, and Detroit, all with ridiculous run defenses. Trade him now off of his big game and get the most you can, he can’t help you anymore.
START ANY PITT RB
3 weeks ago I was high on Jonathan Dwyer, he looked like a tank and rumbled his way to consecutive 100 yard games. It was the first time that had happened for a Pitt RB in years. With his injury, Issac Redman stepped in and looked even better. The fact of the matter is the young O-line has finally figured it out and Todd Haley’s system looks ideal for the talent they have. Their center Pouncey is playing great ball and having a Pro Bowl season. Whichever running back starts for Pitt, place them in your lineup and start them without concern.
USE YOUR ROSTER SPOTS WISELY
If you have any roster spots that you aren’t using or players on your bench that haven’t done anything for you; those spots can be valuable this time of year. Whatever spots you have, use to grab handcuffs before the games start that week. If an injury happens and you happened to grab the right handcuff; that player can be a valuable tool in the stretch run.
SURGING PLAYERS
Here are a few players you can likely grab on your waiver wire or pluck off someone’s bench that are surging. Dwayne Allen in Indy. Denarius Moore in Oakland, Pierre Thomas in NO. All of these players have seen increased opportunity due to injury and will take advantage of it. Grab these guys and put them right in your lineup.
PARTING NOTE
After this week, only 3 remaining teams have byes. Now is the time to sure up your starting roster. Trade your depth for better starting options and get ready for a final push. If you have any questions about your lineup, trade advice or players to target download our app “The Fantasy Sports Advisor” and send your questions in. Follow us on twitter @FFAdvisorapp and we can answer as many questions as possible. Good luck!
Fantasy Football: Outside The Box (Volume 3)
Welcome to another edition of Fantasy Football: Outside the Box, our weekly report on a unique approach to Fantasy Football strategy. Please check out our app, The Fantasy Advisor, that will answer a
ll of your individualized questions and give you customized advice and rankings based on your fantasy league. The app is .99 cents on iTunes and Google Play and will help carry you through your fantasy playoffs.
Happy Thanksgiving! Ideally, your holiday was packed with turkey, all the trimmings, and the Patriots Defense. It was another interesting weekend of fantasy football and several of the trends we predicted are continuing to come to fruition.
Here are a few more tips that will help you during the playoff push:
Cut Bait
It is time to stop hoping that struggling players turn it around; they have already revealed what they are going to be this year. Players like DeAngelo Williams, Daryl Richardson, Pierre Garcon, Tim Tebow and many others have wasted enough of your time and roster. They should not be counted on for any production. Other players like MJD, Kenny Britt and McFadden have crippled owners who have held out for their return. If you haven’t already, come up with a viable alternative to replace them. The past two weeks have revealed several potential alternatives; players like Knowshon Moreno, Marcel Reece, Beanie Wells have all seized their respective opportunity. We suggest you rely on those players that are performing and stop hoping other players will finally produce. Remember, it’s imperative to remove emotions from your decisions. Tis the season for playing matchups and following the momentum.
Target players on teams in the playoff hunt.
This has been an unusual season. We are heading into week 13 and two teams have a 4-game lead in their division (Broncos & Falcons) and three teams have 3-game leads (Patriots, Ravens and Texans). It’s not inconceivable to imagine that several of these teams will have very little incentive to play their star players in the coming weeks. Does everyone remember the 2009 season when Peyton Manning was benched in week 16 to rest him for the playoffs? The same thing happened in 2011 with Aaron Rodgers. To state the obvious, you should target players that will be playing for their post-season lives. Teams like the Cowboys, Saints, Buccaneers, and Colts all have favorable matchups during fantasy playoffs and will be fighting for everything.
Plan a week in advance
In our past couple issues, we have stressed the importance of planning ahead. With the playoffs looming and most owners focused on winning only the next game; take a look at your match-ups 2 or 3 weeks out. With this approach, you will likely be able to improve some weaker spots on your roster. Specifically, target Defenses that are playing teams that turn the ball over (i.e., Cardinals, Eagles, Raiders) and Kickers in potential shoot outs (i.e., Gostkowski, Janikowski, Lawrence Tynes). By looking weeks in advance, you will be the inevitable waiver scurry for these easy points.
This technique should not also be limited to only Defense or Kickers. In the past few weeks, I was able to secure Ronnie Hillman, James Starks and Beanie Wells just by speculating on their respective situations. By utilizing all of your roster spots, you can grab a player before anyone else wants them.
If you have any specific questions about how to get your roster ready, don’t hesitate to contact us on twitter @FFadvisorapp or check out our app, The Fantasy Advisor, on Google Play and Itunes.
DST/TE Week 13 Strategy
Often in fantasy football, we make all the right plays, trades and start/sits but still come up on the losing end of the matchup. If you're currently planning your strategy for the upcoming playoffs,
the old cliche "Defense wins Championships" may be your answer.
Unless you've got a consistent performer like Chicago,Seattle, Houston or San Fracisco, odds are you can gain a significant advantage by going the plug and play route with DST. The playoffs in fantasy are about obtaining any and every advantage you possibly can and I've known many owners who did it simply through their DST plug and play strategy.
JETS DST-Last week the St. Louis Rams defense scored TWO TD's because Ryan Lindley doesn't belong anywhere near a professional football field. Don't be surprised this week if the roller coaster Jets put up similar numbers at home this week against an offense that is firing on no cylinders.
Panthers DST- Brady Quinn, much like the forementioned Lindley, peaked at Notre Dame. He cannot and should not be anywhere near an NFL Field. He will turn the ball over against whichever D he's going against. Expect the Panthers to pick him at least twice and force a fumble or two.
Mercedes Lewis-Hard to believe I'm saying this, but with the emergence of Chad Henne, the Jags offense seems to have gotten on track. Shorts and Blackmon will see plenty of targets from the Bills secondary and I like Lewis a lot in this matchup. Expect 50-70 yards and a TD.
Dallas Clark-Once thought to be simply the product of Peyton Manning, Clark has finally gotten things in gear down in Tampa. He's going against a Bronco's D that has been very generous to the Tight End this season. I'd expect 4-6 snags for CLark and 65-80 yards.
Marry, Cheat, Dump Week 13
Share your knowledge aSometimes fixing problems in a relationship is a lot easier than winning your fantasy football league.
In this weekly column, PigksinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus
Katkin is going to discuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (people you should trade away or drop).
QBs (Andy Dalton, Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler)
Marry – Peyton Manning
What hasn’t there been to love about Peyton Manning this year. Coming off multiple neck surgeries and a year off, the expectations for Manning were that he’d be a top 10 QB, but not the elite QB we’d grown to love, and in some cases, hate.
At one point this year he had 5 straight games with 3 TDs. He’s thrown for 300 yards or 3 TDs in 8 of 11 games this year. His upcoming schedule is vs. Tampa Bay (26th vs. opposing QBs), at Oakland (31st), at Baltimore (6th), and vs. Cleveland (17th). Ride him throughout your fantasy playoffs… as if you were going to do anything but.
Cheat – Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton has scored at least 20 fantasy points in the last 3 games. In those games he has 9 passing TDs (10 total TDs) to 0 INTs.
He has a great schedule the next three weeks to keep the streak going. First at San Diego who just gave up 355 yards passing to Joe Flacco. Yes… Joe Flacco! Then, vs. Dallas who gave up 311 yards and 4 TDs to a rookie, RG3, last week. Finally, at Philadelphia who’s given up at least 2 passing TDs in each of the last 5 games!
Start him up until the tough game vs. a Pittsburgh pass defense that has only allowed an average of 6.5 points to opposing QBs over the last 6 games.
Dump –Jay Cutler
Cutler has been bad this year. I mean bad! He has more turnovers than TDs (13 to 15) and is on pace to throw for UNDER 3,000 yards this season! To put this in perspective, all 4 rookie QBs (Luck, RG3, Tannehill, and Wilson) are all on pace for more yards than Cutler this season. Terrible.
Look ahead to his upcoming schedule. Vs. Seattle (3rd vs. opposing QBs), at Minnesota (limited him to just 188 yards and 1 TD last week), vs. Green Bay (held him to 126 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs in week 2), and finally at Arizona (4th best against opposing QBs). Yikes!
RBs (Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw)
Marry – Ahmad Bradshaw
What a difference a few weeks make, huh? I had him in my dump column in my week 11. Andre Brown was coming on strong and Bradshaw was getting dinged up. During their bye week the Giants were trying out some golden oldies RBs (Joseph Addai, Kahlil Bell, Steve Slaton). Things were not looking good for Bradshaw’s injury and his week 12 availability. Ironically, it was Andre Brown that would break his fibula leaving Bradshaw as the new bell cow back.
There is some speculation that David Wilson will see some more carries with Brown out but I’m not buying it. He’s been in Grandpa Coughlin’s dog house since those fumbles the first couple weeks of the season and can’t seem to find his way out. I expect the Giants to go back to giving Bradshaw 20+ carries and to emphasize the passing game more (of which Bradshaw is also involved).
Cheat – Trent Richardson
This guy is a stud. No matter how bad the offense, Richardson gets his fantasy points. He currently makes up for over 30% of all the Browns offensive yards this season. He’s scored at least 13 fantasy points in 6 games this season and each of the last 4 games.
Take a look at his next two games… at Oakland (30th vs. opposing RBs) and vs. Kansas City (24th). Keep riding Richardson throughout your fantasy playoffs the same way the Browns will ride him to 20+ carries every game.
Dump – Ray Rice
On the surface Ray Rice looks like a solid fantasy RB. 4th highest RB in fantasy points so far this year. 8 double digit fantasy point games. 20+ carries each of the last 2 games. What’s not to like, right?
Whew! Look at that stinker of a schedule. Vs. Pittsburgh (6th best vs. opposing RBs), at Washington (8th), vs. Denver (9th), and vs. the New York Football Giants (4th). That’s 4 straight top 10 run defenses during the one time you want to see them the least; your fantasy playoffs. He’s got the talent but given these tough defenses, he may not get the opportunity as the Ravens may abandon the run and go the pass early.
WRs (Victor Cruz, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson)
Marry – Brandon Marshall
How can I want to dump Jay Cutler and yet want to marry Brandon Marshall you ask? It’s easy. Marshall is the ONLY guy Cutler throws to. This past week Marshall received 17 of Cutlers 31 targets. On the season Marshall has 124 targets. Next closest Bears receiver… Earl Bennett with 40. That’s right, Marshall has more than 3 times as many targets as anyone else on the team! It should come as no surprise that he has 15 red zone targets and the rest of the Bears wide receivers account for only 9!
He’s scored 9 or more fantasy points in 9 out of 11 games this year and has at least 7 receptions in 7 out of 11. He’s a stud. With Forte going down with an injury we could see a lot more of Cutler to Marshall in the upcoming weeks.
Cheat – Andre Johnson
Ring, ring…Hello? Yes, hi Texans? This is 2009 calling, just reminding you that you have an elite receiver and that you don’t always have to run the ball.
Andre Johnson is back ladies and gentlemen. In the last two weeks he’s had 23 receptions for an astonishing 461 yards (an NFL 2 game record). The next three weeks he plays pass defenses ranked in the bottom third of the league so don’t expect anything to change. Arian Foster will still get his work, but I think the Texans have realized they have another part of their offense back again.
Dump – Victor Cruz
Through week 7 Victor Cruz was the #1 overall Wide Receiver in fantasy. Since then, he’s averaging 3 receptions and 38 yards a game. Yeessh!
So what has caused the sudden decrease in production? Hakeem Nicks came back in week 6 but was not himself until about week 10. If last two weeks are any indication, Eli is now focusing on Nicks and not Cruz. From week 8 on, Nicks had 38 targets to Cruz’s 29. In those two weeks…Nicks had 27 to Cruz’s 10. The focus has definitely shifted off Cruz and so should your’s. If you have a late trade deadline, look to move him. If not, you’ve got to ride it out with him as talent does typically win out and we should see the targets get more evened out.
About the Author - Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. He recently joined the team of featured writers at PigskinBoss.com. If you need help with your fantasy football relationships – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin
Fantasy Football Playoff Boom or Bust Quarterbacks
http://tshq.co/2012/11/fantasy-football-playoff-boom-or-bust-quarterbacks/
Fantasy Football Playoff Boom or Bust Teams - Part 2
http://tshq.co/2012/11/fantasy-football-playoffs-boom-or-bust-teams-part-2/
Fantasy Football Playoff Boom or Bust Teams - Part 1
http://tshq.co/2012/11/fantasy-football-playoff-boom-or-bust-teams/
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 12
http://tshq.co/2012/11/fantasy-football-starts-and-sits-week-12/
Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings, Which Matchups to Exploit, Which to Avoid
Another wild week of Fantasy Football is in the books with some very interesting results. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson came alive with Schaub passing for 527 yards and two touchdowns. Andre Johnson
exceeded 90 yards receiving for only the third time this season but he went off for 273 and a score. In fact this week saw 67% of all touchdowns come from the pass. This just in, the NFL is a passing league. If you’re deciding between two flex guys, it’s time to put aside the notion that the RB is always the better start.
Week 12 is Thanksgiving weekend, that means three games on Thursday which could wreak havoc if you’re dealing with injuries as you may have to make that tough decision of starting Brandon Lloyd over Julio Jones simply because Jones isn’t practicing yet. Personally I take all factors into account but would always rather give myself a shot at 5-7 points rather than a goose egg. You’ll notice that in my analysis below and in my advice when you guys tweet for assistance.
Lastly, the games start at 12:30pm eastern on Thursday, NOT 1pm. Get your line ups set tonight or first thing tomorrow, you don’t want to have to deal with another possible outage by Yahoo!
Ok, enough of a lead-in, let’s get this party started…
QUARTERBACKS
Matchups to Exploit:
Andy Dalton has man’s real best friend, AJ Green. Green has been unstoppable this season and faces a Raiders team that has allowed the 2nd most passing touchdowns, 20, vs. only six interceptions. Green-Ellis punched one in from short yardage last week but Cincy also threw inside the five yard line proving they are not just a power run team at the goal line.
Andrew Luck had a down game last week, with three interceptions. Oh yeah, he also had 334 yards passing and two touchdowns, not bad for a ‘down game’. Luck has developed great rapport with his receivers and with TY Hilton stepping up; Luck has yet another weapon at his disposal. The Bills allow almost two touchdowns a game to opposing QBs, Luck will dink and dunk his way to a very nice fantasy day.
Matt Ryan had the worst game of his career last week throwing for five interceptions. Luckily the doctor ordered a perfect remedy, the league’s worst passing defense to cheer up Ryan’s spirits. Don’t get cute here; Ryan has been a stud all season and currently ranks 6th in QB scoring. The Bucs allow 323 yards a game to QBs, with or without Julio, Ryan will bounce back.
Peyton Manning just lost Willis McGahee for the season with a torn MCL. Enter Ronnie Hillman, a rookie out of San Diego State. This points to Denver passing the ball more and Manning has already been leaning on his receivers in the redzone, look for this to continue. Brandon Stokley is a sneaky play as Manning seems to be using him as a security blanket as of late.
Ryan Fitzpatrick had a pedestrian game last week as he allowed CJ Spiller to do most of the work. This week he’s going to have to keep up with Andrew Luck, the 7th best fantasy football quarterback. I could see the Bills getting behind in this game which is when Fitz tends to excel. The Colts have been generous to opposing passers allowing 18 touchdowns with only four takeaways.
Matchups to Avoid:
Joe Flacco was on the avoid list last week and he did not disappoint me. He threw for 164 yards with zero touchdowns. I mentioned it last week but I’ll say it again, Flacco plays great at home averaging almost 23 points a game. Away he doesn’t break the 10 point barrier. This week he plays AT San Diego. While I think he connects with Torrey Smith deep once for a score, I’m not sure he does much else.
Carson Palmer on the avoid list is almost like blasphemy for me yet I think Oakland will be able to run in Cincy. The Bengals rank 11th best vs. the pass allowing only 12 passing touchdowns through 10 games. However, the run defense ranks 22nd, look for Oakland to move the ball through Marcel Reece, not Palmer this week.
Josh Freeman has a similar situation to Palmer, the Falcons rank 10th best vs. QBs but 26th worst vs. RBs. Atlanta has allowed only 11 touchdowns through 10 games and opposing QBs average 13.7 points a game. Considering Tampa has a VERY capable running game with Doug Martin, look for them to pound this game out on the ground.
Below is the full line-up for week 12 matchups. The charts below read as follows: Defense Rank vs. Position (QB, RB, WR, TE) Team Name, Opponent, Team Studs, and Matchups to watch.
Defenses with a rank of 32 are the worst and give up the most points to the position. Defenses with 1 are the best and give up the fewest points to the position. I’ve mentioned it before but for you new readers, I’m not ranking Jason Campbell over RGIII or Stafford, it’s just that Campbell has better matchup due to the defense he’s facing.
32 - Saints vs. 49ers ---> Kaepernick (+)
31 - Vikings vs. Bears ---> Campbell
30 - Raiders vs. Bengals ---> Dalton (+)
29 - Bills vs. Colts ---> Luck (+)
28 - Buccaneers vs. Falcons ---> Ryan (+)
27 - Titans vs. Jaguars ---> Henne
26 - Redskins vs. Cowboys ---> Romo
25 - Jaguars vs. Titans ---> Locker
24 - Chiefs vs. Broncos ---> Manning (+)
23 - Patriots vs. Jets ---> Sanchez
22 - Browns vs. Steelers ---> Batch
21 - Colts vs. Bills ---> Fitzpatrick (+)
20 - Eagles vs. Panthers ---> Newton
19 - Rams vs. Cardinals ---> Lindley (-)
18 - Giants vs. Packers ---> Rodgers
17 - Chargers vs. Ravens ---> Flacco
16 - Dolphins vs. Seahawks ---> Wilson
15 - Lions vs. Texans ---> Schaub
14 - Packers vs. Giants ---> Eli
13 - Panthers vs. Eagles ---> Foles (-)
12 - Broncos vs. Chiefs ---> Quinn
11 - Bengals vs. Raiders ---> Palmer
10 - Falcons vs. Buccaneers ---> Freeman
9 - Texans vs. Lions ---> Stafford
8 - Jets vs. Patriots ---> Brady
7 - Cowboys vs. Redskins ---> RGIII
6 - Ravens vs. Chargers ---> Rivers
5 - Cardinals vs. Rams ---> Bradford (-)
4 - 49ers vs. Saints ---> Brees
3 - Steelers vs. Browns ---> Weeden
2 - Seahawks vs. Dolphins ---> Tannehill (-)
1 - Bears vs. Vikings ---> Ponder (-)
RUNNING BACKS
Matchups to Exploit:
Frank Gore faces the RB friendly Saints that rank 31st vs. the run allowing 192 yards a game and 5.1 yards per attempt. Kaepernick has just been named the starter, so Gore should see plenty of check downs as the Saints have allowed a league high 566 yards receiving to RBs.
Chris Johnson squares off against the Jaguars that rank 28th in defending the run. They allow 162 yards a game and 12 touchdowns through 10 games. Over the last four weeks CJ1k has 561 yards and 4 touchdowns, he should turn in another nice game this Sunday.
Doug Martin runs into the Falcons this week that rank 26th vs. the run. Opposing RB’s average 20.8 points per game and Martin is not your typical runner. Atlanta has only held two runners below 100 yards while Martin has eclipsed that mark three of the last four weeks.
CJ Spiller has been completely dominant in the game’s he started this season and even when sharing time with Fred Jackson, he’s produced. Chan Gailey has already named him the starter for Sunday vs. the Colts that give up 19.6 points per week to opposing RBs. Spiller has reached the century mark five games in a row through running and receiving, he’s a special talent.
Marcel Reece is on fire. He faces a Bengals team that gives up one touchdown a game to RBs and nearly 50 yards a game receiving. Reece has reached at least 95 yards from scrimmage three games in a row and last week went for 193 yards. He’s just too hot to be on your bench this week.
Matchups to Avoid:
Jamaal Charles is a simple formula, give him the ball and he produces. However this week KC faces the Broncos that rank 10th best in defending the run and only allow 121 yards a game. Add in that Denver can score at will and should get out in front and this game has all the writing of Jamaal getting Crennel’ed and only seeing 8-10 touches as the Chiefs play from behind. Oh, did I mention Quinn is starting over Cassel, this should not turn out well for KC.
James Starks has played his way into the starting role, or perhaps it’s more that Green played his way out of it. Starks is up against the Giants that have only given up four touchdowns to RB’s. The Giants give up 29 yards a game receiving to RBs and Starks will likely be used out of the backfield as a receiver more than a true power tailback which doesn’t bode well for this fantasy day.
Mikel Leshoure plays the 2nd best run defense in the land on Thanksgiving when he faces the Texans. Houston has yet to give up a rushing touchdown on the season and has only allowed ONE receiving touchdown. This should be a shootout through the air, not on the ground.
32 - Bills vs. Colts ---> Ballard, Brown
31 - Saints vs. 49ers ---> Gore (+)
30 - Raiders vs. Bengals ---> BJGE
29 - Titans vs. Jaguars ---> Parmele
28 - Jaguars vs. Titans ---> CJ1k (+)
27 - Chiefs vs. Broncos ---> Hillman (+)
26 - Falcons vs. Buccaneers ---> Martin (+)
25 - Colts vs. Bills ---> Spiller (+)
24 - Ravens vs. Chargers ---> Mathews
23 - Panthers vs. Eagles ---> Brown
22 - Bengals vs. Raiders ---> Reece (+)
21 - Browns vs. Steelers ---> Redman
20 - Jets vs. Patriots ---> Ridley (-)
19 - Rams vs. Cardinals ---> LSH
18 - Cowboys vs. Redskins ---> Morris
17 - Buccaneers vs. Falcons ---> Turner
16 - Eagles vs. Panthers ---> JStew
15 - Packers vs. Giants ---> Bradshaw
14 - Chargers vs. Ravens ---> Rice
13 - Vikings vs. Bears ---> Forte (-)
12 - Cardinals vs. Rams ---> Jackson, Richardson
11 - Patriots vs. Jets ---> Greene
10 - Broncos vs. Chiefs ---> Charles (-)
9 - Redskins vs. Cowboys ---> Jones
8 - Steelers vs. Browns ---> Richardson
7 - Dolphins vs. Seahawks ---> Lynch
6 - Giants vs. Packers ---> Starks (-)
5 - Lions vs. Texans ---> Foster
4 - Seahawks vs. Dolphins ---> Bush, Thomas
3 - Bears vs. Vikings ---> Peterson
2 - Texans vs. Lions ---> Leshoure (-)
1 - 49ers vs. Saints ---> Thomas, Ingram (-)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Matchups to Exploit:
Michael Crabtree has scored four times the last three games and this week plays the Saints that allow 206 yards a game to wide receivers. New Orleans is tied for last by allowing 15 touchdowns to wide outs this season. Even if the Saints get up early in this game, which is very possible, Crabtree should excel.
Roddy White should be shouldering the load again as Julio Jones looks doubtful for Sunday’s game. The Bucs allow 225 yards a game to wide receivers and 10 touchdowns to wide outs on the season. Over the last three weeks, White ranks 3rd in targets and 11th in scoring averaging 11.8 points a game, White will be just fine.
Randall Cobb should be involved in a high scoring affair against the New York Giants and their 26th ranked defense against wide receivers. The Giants have allowed 15 touchdowns to WR’s on the season and have a yards per attempt of 15.7 meaning Cobb could get deep. Cobb has given Rodgers lots of reasons to trust him, of his targets, he catches a league high 76% of them. By comparison Reggie Wayne only grabs 58% and Megatron only 61%.
Victor Cruz should get things going again vs. the Packers. They allow 188 yards and 24.2 points a game to wide outs. Cruz is 5th in targets on the season with 104 and ranks 8th on the season in points. Look for him to get back on track in a game where Vegas has the over/under set at 52.5 points.
Sidney Rice is fresh off a bye and facing a Miami defense that ranks 7th vs. the run. However the Fins ranks 22nd vs. wide receivers so look for Seattle to air it out while Marshawn struggles on the ground. Rice has been red hot lately scoring four times in the three games prior to his bye. Rice should continue to be a solid flex play.
Matchups to Avoid:
Larry Fitzgerald has not reached 100 yards receiving since week three. This week he draws the Rams defense that only allows 147 yards a game to wide receivers. The Rams have given up 9 touchdowns this season to receivers and their pressure on new quarterback Ryan Lindley should continue to have Fitz owners frustrated.
DeSean Jackson has a new quarterback in Nick Foles and let’s just say, be careful what you ask for. The Philadelphia faithful got their wish when Foles started last week however he only mustered 204 yards passing and gave up two interceptions with zero touchdowns. Jackson was held to 2 catches for 5 yards while Maclin didn’t have a single catch. This week Jackson faces the Panthers that only give up 149 yards a game and have a low 12.4 yards per attempt so it’s not likely they get beat deep. This team seems to have given up on the rest of their season and I suggest you do the same for this week.
Dwayne Bowe is battling a neck injury but that won’t matter come Sunday. Head coach Romeo Crennel has named Brady Quinn the starter, that’s not good news for Bowe owners. The last game Quinn started he went 22 for 38 with 180 yards passing and zero touchdowns. In that game Bowe had three catches for 21 yards. The Broncos have only given up 8 touchdowns to wide outs and have 12 interceptions. Don’t expect a big game from Bowe this week.
32 - Saints vs. 49ers ---> Crabtree, Manningham (+)
31 - Buccaneers vs. Falcons ---> White, Jones
30 - Redskins vs. Cowboys ---> Bryant, Austin
29 - Patriots vs. Jets ---> Kerley
28 - Colts vs. Bills ---> Johnson
27 - Browns vs. Steelers ---> Wallace, Brown
26 - Giants vs. Packers ---> Nelson, Cobb, Jones (+)
25 - Jaguars vs. Titans ---> Britt, Washington
24 - Packers vs. Giants ---> Nicks, Cruz (+)
23 - Bills vs. Colts ---> Wayne, Avery
22 - Dolphins vs. Seahawks ---> Tate, Rice
21 - Chargers vs. Ravens ---> Smith, Boldin
20 - Raiders vs. Bengals ---> AJ Green, Hawkins (+)
19 - Titans vs. Jaguars ---> Blackmon, Shorts (+)
18 - Eagles vs. Panthers ---> Smith, Lafell
17 - Lions vs. Texans ---> Johnson
16 - Chiefs vs. Broncos ---> Thomas, Decker
15 - Cardinals vs. Rams ---> Amendola, Gibson, Givens
14 - Texans vs. Lions ---> Johnson, Young, Broyles
13 - Ravens vs. Chargers ---> Floyd, Alexander
12 - Vikings vs. Bears ---> Marshall, Hester (-)
11 - Rams vs. Cardinals ---> Fitzgerald, Roberts
10 - Cowboys vs. Redskins ---> Moss, Morgan
9 - Bears vs. Vikings ---> Harvin (-)
8 - Panthers vs. Eagles ---> Jackson, Maclin
7 - Broncos vs. Chiefs ---> Bowe (-)
6 - Bengals vs. Raiders ---> Moore, DHB
5 - Jets vs. Patriots ---> Welker, Llyod
4 - 49ers vs. Saints ---> Colston, Moore (-)
3 - Falcons vs. Buccaneers ---> Jackson, Williams
2 - Steelers vs. Browns ---> Little, Gordon
1 - Seahawks vs. Dolphins ---> Hartline, Bess
TIGHT ENDS
Matchups to Exploit:
Tony Moeaki makes for an interesting play this week especially for those that just lost Gronkowski. The Broncos allow 68 yards a game to tight ends and this game should get out of hand early. Moeaki has eclipsed 65 yards receiving his last two games. With Bowe on the mend and Quinn at the helm, there should be plenty of short routes for Moeaki to fill and more than enough junk time to make him an effective fill in.
Brandon Myers has 30 targets and four touchdowns over the last three weeks. Myers is 7th on the season in scoring and will continue to be involved heavily when facing the Bengals that give up 61 yards a game and five touchdowns on the season to tight ends.
Matchups to Avoid:
Logan Paulsen is matched up vs. the Cowboys that only give up 40 yards a game to tight ends. That’s tied for 3rd best defending the TE position however they have surrendered 5 touchdowns which puts their overall rank at 14th. Paulsen only had one target for one catch last week though it went for a score. Look elsewhere, I don’t like having a TE that is touchdown dependent.
32 - Broncos vs. Chiefs ---> Moeaki (+)
31 - Titans vs. Jaguars ---> Lewis
30 - Redskins vs. Cowboys ---> Witten (+)
29 - Patriots vs. Jets ---> Keller
28 - Bengals vs. Raiders ---> Myers (+)
27 - Jets vs. Patriots ---> Hernandez
26 - Lions vs. Texans ---> Daniels
25 - Raiders vs. Bengals ---> Gresham
24 - Saints vs. 49ers ---> Davis
23 - Panthers vs. Eagles ---> Celek
22 - Falcons vs. Buccaneers ---> Clark
21 - Bills vs. Colts ---> Allen (+)
20 - Vikings vs. Bears ---> Davis
19 - Buccaneers vs. Falcons ---> Gonzalez
18 - Texans vs. Lions ---> Pettigrew
17 - Rams vs. Cardinals ---> King
16 - Giants vs. Packers ---> Finley
15 - Jaguars vs. Titans ---> Cook
14 - Cowboys vs. Redskins ---> Paulsen (-)
13 - Dolphins vs. Seahawks ---> Miller
12 - Chiefs vs. Broncos ---> Dreesen
11 - Seahawks vs. Dolphins ---> Fasano
10 - Ravens vs. Chargers ---> Gates
9 - Bears vs. Vikings ---> Rudolph
8 - Packers vs. Giants ---> Bennett
7 - Colts vs. Bills ---> Chandler
6 - Eagles vs. Panthers ---> Olsen
5 - Chargers vs. Ravens ---> Pitta (-)
4 - Cardinals vs. Rams ---> Kendricks
3 - Steelers vs. Browns ---> Watson
2 - 49ers vs. Saints ---> Graham
1 - Browns vs. Steelers ---> Miller (-)
Send me a tweet or leave a comment below and let me know if you agree or see things differently. Then check out my rankings including top 150 FLEX players at http://goo.gl/nYurG. If you know of an article you’d like to see, hit me up, I’m all ears.
You can find me on twitter @FFCounselor and if you like what you see, help me out and give me a follow.
Feel free to shoot me start/sit questions or any other fantasy football questions, I’m always up for a good discussion and always answer my tweets. Good luck in week 12!
Fantasy Football Starts and Sits Week 12
http://tshq.co/2012/11/fantasy-football-starts-and-sits-week-12/
My Fantasy Football Story
Since we are getting deep into the holiday season and stories are quite popular right now, I'd like to share my disaster story. Usually on this site I contribute a weekly RB waiver wire every Tuesday
. It has come to my attention however that another contributor has been doing the same thing and to keep from having conflicting articles I'm going to throw a curveball (baseball never ends for me).
Let me throw you a bone here. In one of my ESPN Standard Leagues I have DeMarco Murray, MJD, and Darren McFadden as my RB's. Each of these guys have missed significant time and has me on the edge with a 5-5-1 record. I did have C.J. Spiller to fill a hole (thank you C.J.) and up until now was juggling Daniel Thomas and Vick Ballard. How was I able to have all three of these guys? Prior to week 4 I traded Ray Rice and Antonio Brown for MJD and Murray. Seemed good at the time right?
My QB/WR/TE play wasn't strong enough to give me wins each week. Who are these guys you wonder? Matt Ryan, Marques Colston, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Hakeem Nicks, Gronk, and Owen Daniels were guys I was shuffling in and out. Last week I believe I made a move that will perhaps jump me into the playoffs despite a terrible record (the rest of the league is bad too). I proposed a trade that would send C.J. Spiller, Gronk, and Randall Cobb for Marshawn Lynch, Heath Miller, and the Broncos D. I was desperate for a healthy RB and a defense that could get me more than 3 points each week.
Trade was accepted prior to the Thursday Night Football game between the Bills and Dolphins. I cringed a bit seeing Spiller play as well as he did, but enjoyed his production one last time for my team. Sunday now rolls around, I cried because of Matty Ryan and was ecstatic for Gronk's and Cobb's performance to give me an eventual win. I hated to see Gronk leave my team, until I heard he broke his forearm and will miss at least 4 weeks. With the Packers receivers getting healthier each week I wasn't to upset to have Cobb leave my team either, I'll take Jordy Nelson all day in a standard league.
Has the injury curse finally left my team and gone to another? As of now I'll say yes due to what happened to Rob Gronkowski. This morning I made a move I will hopefully not regret, dropping MJD and picking up Fred Jackson. I know that Jackson will split with Spiller, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
So throw me your opinions, will I win out and get the 7 wins it appears I will need to snag a playoff spot? QB Matt Ryan, RB's Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, Darren McFadden, Daniel Thomas, DeMarco Murray, WR's Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks, Marques Colston, Torrey Smith, TE's Owen Daniels and Heath Miller, Broncos D, and Connor Barth.
Week 12-TE and DST Analysis
Rob Gronkowski broke his arm. There I said it. The next step is accepting it. Odds are, if you own Gronkowski (like me), you just lost the most important player on your fantasy team for the remainder
of the year (Fantasy Super Bowl, if we're lucky). The Tight End position has been relatively quiet this year aside from Gronk and Graham and Gonzo. If you lost Gronk, or if you simply have been doing the plug and play thing all season, don't worry--if you're team is sound elsewhere you can still win your leage. Let's look at viable options going forward at the TE position in the last quarter and most important part of the FFB season.
Jermichael Finley-I'm giving this guy ONE more chance to prove his worth. He finally had a decent game last week against Detroit, and I'm going out on a limb in saying that I think he and Aaron Rodgers might finally have gotten on the same page chemistry wise. If he's still out there on your wire, grab him first. He is a gamble, but I think it's worth the risk.
Brandon Pettigrew-After Houston's free-for-all against the Jags last week, they'll be flying into Detroit for the Turkey Game on tired legs. I expect their defense to be weak and Pettigrew sshould reap the benefits. Add to that the absence of Titus Young and there should be a fair amount of targets coming his way. I expect between 5-8 grabs and some paydirt for the Lions TE.
RAMS DST-I played the Rams defense last week and despite the fact that they let the Jets come into their dome and walk all over them, decent fantasy production happened. This week they're going against an Arizona Cardinal offensive line that has apparently decided that blocking the QB is not completley necessary to play football. The Rams defense will sack Lindley or Skelton, depending on who plays, at least 3 times and force a turnover or two. Grab them as a viable plug and play option.
Cardinals DST-As mentioned above, the Rams rely on their defense to keep them in ball games. The Cards only saving grace this season has been consistent defensive production. They'll want to break out of their six game slump and get a little revenge for their earlier loss to STL this year on Thursday Night Football. I don't see the Rams putting up much offense against AZ and turning over the ball numerous times. If they Cards are out there on your waiver wire, this is a great week to insert them into your lineup.
Marry, Cheat, Dump Week12
Sometimes fixing problems in a relationship is a lot easier than winning your fantasy football league.
In this weekly column, PigksinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is going to dis
cuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (people you should trade away or drop).
QBs (Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford)
Marry – Cam Newton
It’s been tough to love anything about Cam Newton this year. His inconsistent play has definitely hurt.
Ironically, Cam has actually performed reasonably ok, scoring double digit fantasy points in each of his last 5 games and at least 15 in 3 of the last 5.
His schedule the next couple weeks is very favorable; at Philly (allowing 20th most points to opposing QBs), at Kansas City (23rd), vs. Atlanta (9th), at San Diego (17th) and vs. Oakland (30th). While the 9th ranked Atlanta secondary may look like a bad matchup it really isn’t. You can run on Atlanta and Newton lit them up earlier this year for 86 rushing yards and 30 fantasy points. Just like the girls at final call, he may not be pretty but he’s a sure thing down the stretch.
Cheat – Tony Romo
For all the talk about how bad Romo is as a real life QB, he’s been very consistent for fantasy. He’s scored at least 14 fantasy points in each of his last 6 games. While he’s never scored over 20 during these games, this is the type of consistency you want from a QB through the playoffs. This week vs. a soft Washington pass D (25th), next week he’s against a Philly pass defense that has just phoned it in for the year (20th) then Week 16 against the Saints (32nd) defense that I could pass on. Spot start him in these 3 games and lock it in for at least 16-18 points with some upside.
Dump – Matthew Stafford
It’s very disappointing to see Stafford coming off his worst fantasy game of the year against Green Bay in what should have been a shootout. Combine this with his upcoming schedule vs. Houston (9th), Week 14 at the Frozen Tundra again against Green Bay, Week 15 at Arizona (5th) and Week 16 vs. Atlanta (9th). 3 top 10 pass defenses in the next 5 weeks and another game against Green Bay in their stadium will not bode well for Stafford. Trade him now before the deadline while you still can.
RBs (Stevan Ridley, LeSean McCoy, Ronnie Hillman)
Marry – Ronnie Hillman
How can I want to marry a rookie that has never had an NFL start? I must be crazy, right? Well Broncos running backs have had a total of 293 touches this year. That’s 29.3 per game. Assuming the split between Hillman and Lance Ball remains at 65/35, Hillman will get 16 carries and 3 receptions per game on average.
Combine these almost 20 touches a game with his upcoming schedule at Kansas City (27th vs. opposing RBs), vs. Tampa Bay (17th), at Oakland (30th), at Baltimore (24th) and vs. Cleveland (20th) and you’ve got fantasy gold. Go get him while you still can!
Cheat – LeSean McCoy
McCoy suffered a concussion on Sunday and his status for week 12 is uncertain. Depending on his fantasy owner’s record he may be looking to win now and dump him for pennies on the dollar.
Before his concussion, McCoy had 6 straight games with double digit fantasy points. Assuming he misses this week, his upcoming schedule is at Dallas (18th), at Tampa Bay (17th), and vs. Cincinnati (22nd). Great teams for him to run on and with a rookie QB they may rely on him more in the ground game and in check down passes.
Dump – Stevan Ridley
If I told you that there’s a running back that faces 3 top 6 run defenses all in consecutive weeks, and was potentially in a time share on a pass first team what would you do with him?
This may be a week too late, but get out from under Ridley while you still can. He’s the 7th ranked fantasy RB this season and can surely get you something of considerable value in trade. His almost equal split of carries with Shane Vereen and his incredible hard upcoming schedule is all you need to know to bail now!
He’s got an easy matchup this week at the Jets, but then he faces Miami (6th), Houston (2nd) and San Francisco (1st)!
WRs (Dez Bryant, Eric Decker, Percy Harvin)
Marry – Dez Bryant
Dez is back! After stinking up the place almost all season Dez has poured it on the last 2 weeks! In the last 2 weeks he leads all Dallas wide receivers in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns.
Not only does Dez have a very favorable schedule, but 4 of his next 5 games are at home where Dez is unstoppable! He loves the Dallas turf! Don’t believe me? Check out his per game average at home (7.75 receptions and 105.5 yards) vs. away (4 receptions and 52 yards). He thrives at home on the turf! And with those 4 out of 5 games at home you can bank on some more 100+ yard games coming up to cement himself in your fantasy playoff starting team!
Cheat – Eric Decker
Hard to trust Eric Decker when his last 2 games have yielded him 4 receptions and 38 yards…combined! He was a force to be reckoned with in the weeks leading up to these two disastrous games.
Nothing has changed though. Peyton is still Peyton, and Decker is still getting the Red Zone targets so no need to panic, he’ll turn it around.
He faces pass defenses that are 15th or worst in each of the next 5 games! With the addition of a rookie RB, the Broncos could see themselves actually throwing more resulting in more opportunities for Decker. Stick with him throughout his easy schedule. Decker is a boom or bust WR so you have to ride the ups with the downs. Just hold on tight and enjoy the ride!
Dump – Percy Harvin
Percy was a perennial top 5 WR through most of the season and now, sadly, he’s in my dump column.
Harvin is no stranger to lingering injuries. We all remember his battle with migraines his first few years in the league. You had to watch the inactive/active list each week to know if he was a go. It was very frustrating and nerve wrecking not knowing if he was going to be in your lineup until the last moment. Now, we are back to more of the same with his injured ankle.
His upcoming schedule is sure to cause havoc for an inept Christian Ponder and the Vikings passing game. In the next 5 weeks they face 3 top 10 pass defenses, the Packers at Green Bay and the Texans scary pass rush at Houston. If you thought Ponder was bad the first half of the season, you haven’t seen anything yet. We may get to see Joe Webb before the season is out.
About the Author - Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. He recently joined the team of featured writers at PigskinBoss.com. If you need help with your fantasy football relationships – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin
Week 12 pick ups
Week 12 pick ups
Qbs
Henne JAC (lit up Houston )
Kaepernick SF (take a flyer)
Rbs
Hillman DEN ( McGahee out )
Bryce Brown PHI ( McCoy concussion )
Par
mele JAC ( Jennings hurt/doghouse)
Powell NYJ ( seeing redzone carries if you're desperate)
Wrs
Blackmon JAC ( Henne making team better)
Hilton IND (Avery out )
Edelman NE (Lloyd in doghouse)
Lafelle CAR ( more targets of late)
Broyles DET ( young sent home)
TE
Greshem CIN ( if available )
Graham HOU ( if Daniels still out )
Watson CLE ( remember this guy? Becoming a red zone fav)
Allen IND ( highly targeted and hauling in passes )
Lewis JAC ( Henne)
Gronkowski out 4 to 6 Weeks, Which Patriots are Affected the Most
The Patriots routed the Colts 59 to 24 this Sunday but all fantasy football managers are going to remember is that Rob Gronkowski broke his arm late in the fourth quarter blocking on the Pat’s final e
xtra point. The initial timetable being discussed is four to six weeks which makes Gronkowski almost droppable in all formats.
This injury has far reaching ripples as the ‘Gronk’ was an integral part of the New England passing and rushing game. Even when Rob didn’t have a steller game, opposing teams had to game plan for him and roll coverage his way including double teams which opened up Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd for more catches.
The Patriots other tight end Aaron Hernandez has missed seven of New England’s 10 games this season but he should be back this coming week and it couldn’t possibly come at a better time. New England was questioned in the offseason for giving so much money to two tight ends but the strategy may very well pay off if Hernandez is able to suit up next week.
Throughout the 2012 season Gronkowski has dominated the targets and receptions among New England tight ends. The season stats stack up like this:
Gronkowski – 75 targets, 53 receptions, 748 yards, 10 touchdowns
Hernandez – 24 targets, 17 receptions, 143 yards, 2 touchdowns
Hoomanawanui – 3 targets, 2 receptions, 22 yards, 0 touchdowns
If for some reason Hernendez has been dropped in your league, stop reading this right now and go pick him up, he’s the most valuable waiver wire add of the season. The odds are pretty good however that Hernandez has been withering away on someone’s bench which means the add would be Hoomanawanui.
Hoomanawanui was originally drafted by the Rams in 2009 out of Illinois. In two years with St. Louis he produced only 20 receptions for 229 yards so New England will definitely see a down turn at the tight end position. The bigger question is how this will affect other positions such as Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd.
Tom Brady will need to find another goal line receiver and that’s were Wes Welker comes into play. Welker is inline to see the biggest increase in action as Brady looks to get the ball out quickly. Brandon Lloyd will certainly see an uptick as well but how much is a big question considering is yards per catch (YPC) is down considerably this year at 11.4 vs his 2011 YPC of 13.5 and an 18.8 YPC in 2010. This means Lloyd is catching the ball on shorter routes instead of playing the deep threat he was brought in to be.
Two other players should see there value changed by this injury and they would be Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley. I think Ridley will see a decrease in production as Gronkowski was a huge body that could dominate their run heavy blocking formations. Instead, look for Woodhead to have an increased role as the Patriots move to smaller sets and utilize Danny as a blocker in passing downs and a threat for the draw or check down play.
You can always find me on twitter @tmcdannell. If you like what you read here, help me out and give me a follow and share with a friend.
Week 12 Waiver Wire Adds
Week 11 is in the books except for Monday nights affair and there were several stand out performances worth taking notice of. Sunday saw several games with scores in the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s yet many
times the big name stars were not the reason for the high scores. Instead the defenses and some new names ruled this day. Sunday saw a total of 64 touchdowns scored, 43 via the pass, 13 via rushing and 8 by defenses or special teams. Lets take a look at the position players you need to consider adding two weeks before the playoffs start.
The following players have been listed in previous weeks waiver wire add columns and should be considered before the players below: Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitz Patrick, Sidney Rice, Marcel Reece, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Cecil Shorts, Danario Alexander, Greg Olsen, Brandon Myers.
Matt Schaub (owned 74%) The Houston Texans showed today that even if they can’t get their run game going, they are still a potent offense capable of big plays. Schaub threw for 527 yards and five touchdowns with two interceptions. Granted, this won’t be the every week line for Matt as they usually lean on the run but Schaub’s rest of season looks really nice, @Det, @Ten, @NE, Ind, Min. Detroit is the best defense of the group ranking 16th against opposing QB’s while the others rank 25th, 27th, 19th and 29th respectively. The schedule is there for Schaub to end the season on a very high note.
Chad Henne (owned 1%) Henne took over in the first quarter for an injured Blaine Gabbert and produced a career day. He threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns with no turnovers. Henne is a long shot here as the extent of Gabbert’s injury is not yet known but if Blaine misses time, Henne has a nice matchup next week as Jacksonville plays the Titans that rank 27th vs the pass. Justin Blackmon finally lived up to draft day value producing 236 yards and one score while Cecil Shorts continued his solid season hauling in 3 receptions for 81 yards and a score. The weapons are there and if you’re in a deep league, Henne is worth keeping an eye on.
Mark Ingram (owned 29%) Had another good day and eclipsed 65 yards rushing for the second straight week. Ingram lead the Saints in carries with 12 rushes for 67 yards and a score. Sproles was a surprise scratch for this game while Ivory and Thomas totaled eight and five carries respectively. Ingram was a powerhouse at Alabama and he’s starting to really show that form the last two weeks. As long as he continues to see 10-15 looks a week, he’s a solid flex play.
Jalen Parmele (owned 1%) Maurice Jones-Drew missed his fourth straight game and Jacksonville has struggled to run the ball ever since. Jacksonville had seen enough in back up RB Rashad Jennings who averaged 2.9 yards per carry on 61 attempts and benched him in favor of Parmele. Jalen made the most of his opportunity with 24 carries for 80 yards and three receptions for three yards (those PPR fans are still happy). Jacksonville is out of the playoff hunt and MJD doesn’t have the long-term contract he wants so odds are, he’s not coming back this year. Jennings can be dropped at this point and Parmele should be added in his place.
Justin Blackmon (owned 23%) Jacksonville fans and local media had been calling Blackmon out for not living up to his draft day value. Well, this past Sunday Justin decided to prove them all wrong, very, very wrong. After a switch at QB where Henne took over for Gabbert, Blackmon hauled in 7 receptions on 13 targets for 236 yards and one touchdown. This marks the first time Blackmon exceeded 70 yards in a game and only the second time he’s passed 50 yards. However, Blackmon has help to succeed with Cecil Shorts on the other side of the field drawing coverage. Blackmon should be viewed as a WR4 and is worth a look in deeper 10 team leagues.
TY Hilton (owned 22%) Reached the century mark for the third time this season with six catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Hilton was third on the team in targets with Wayne (18) and Allen (11) leading the way but Hilton produced better than both combined. New England held Avery in check with only three grabs for 34 yards but its becoming clear Luck has a plethora of talent at the wide out position and he’s going to spread the wealth. Hilton should be considered a WR4 or WR5 and has very high upside should Avery or Wayne get injured and the WR core get thinned out a bit.
Brandon Stokley (owned 1%) Scored for the second straight week and has 14 targets over the last three weeks. The yardage totals have been average over that span with 43, 54, and 55 but the scores make up the difference. There’s no doubt Stokley will always play third fiddle to Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker but Manning continues to look his way and he’s become his safety valve similar to the role he played in Indianapolis. Stokley is worth an add in deeper 10 team leagues and most 12 teams leagues.
Garrett Graham (owned 1%) Benefitted from an injured Owen Daniels and a spunky Jacksonville team that kept Sunday’s game close. Graham had not eclipsed 40 yards this season but there’s a good chance he can do it again next week. Daniels is nursing a hip injury and the Texans have a short week playing on Thanksgiving day against the Detroit Lions. Detroit ranks 7th vs the run and can light up the scoreboard. If Foster is held in check again, Houston will have to look to the air for answers. The Lions rank 27th vs defending the TE position so if Daniels is out or limited Thursday, Graham will benefit from the increased workload.
Michael Hoomanawanui (owned 0%) is in for an increased role with Rob Gronkowski out four to six weeks with a broken forearm. He failed to produce in two years with the Rams but for a full analysis of the Gronkowski injury check out our full article available here http://goo.gl/UPWr1
Harry Douglas (owned 1%) is this weeks 'fools gold' waiver wire add. Currently we don't know the extent of Julio Jones ankle injury but it doesn't look like he's going to miss time. That said, Douglas has never produced even before Julio was with Atlanta and Douglas shared the WR2 spot with Michael Jenkins. In 2010 when Douglas was opposite Roddy White he only mustered 294 yards receiving on 22 receptions. If Julio misses time, White, Gonzalez and Rodgers will see more action but Douglas will still be mediocre.
There were a couple other large injuries this weekend namely to LeSean McCoy and Willis McGahee. I didn't list their backups as adds and let me explain why.
McCoy has scored more than 13 points only once this season. He's getting plenty of work averaging 21.7 touches a game McCoy just isn't producing the touchdowns needed to move him into the next level of elite RB1's. Bryce Brown (owned 3%) would be the player to target if McCoy misses time but I doubt he'll match the production of LeSean who is a very special talent.
McGahee injured his knee in the second quarter and Ronnie Hillman (owned 10%) and Lance Ball (owned 1%) split carries in his absence. Hillman got more work with 11 carries to Ball's 5 and would be the preferred pickup. However, there is a better chance Denver leans on the pass as opposed to one of these guys stepping into fantasy relevance so I'm not sure either is worth adding.
***UPDATE*** Reports came out today that McGahee has a torn MCL and is out 4 to 6 weeks meaning he is droppable. Ronnie Hillman becomes a must own as he will be involved in both the running and passing game and will see the majority of the RB touches.
Good luck Monday night as we finish out week 11. You can always find me on twitter @tmcdannell. If you like what you read here, help me out and give me a follow and share with a friend.
Win Week 11
?10 tips to win week 11
#1 - Start your Raiders- playing against the Saints, at home they will be ppr gold.. In a shoot out look for them to all contribute...
#2- Start Cam Newt
on - i know hes been a huge bust this year but tampas pass defense is awful. Cam and Steve Smith should go off...
#3- Sit Philip Rivers - with his inconsistancy all year and facing a very quick and potent denver D, he will be knocked around all game.
#4- Start your Cowboy WRS - facing cleveland its very possible both Austin and Bryant combine for over 200 yards and 3 tds.. Look for Romo to put down Cleveland early and force them to throw the whole second half.
#5- Start Mike Williams - With this game expected to be a shootout i could see Mike Williams getting a ton of targets. Could have season best numbers this week or close to it.
#6- Sit Ryan Mathews - Neck injuries are no joke.. Didnt practice Wednesday or Thursday.. Limited friday.. even if he is active he doesnt produce when he is healthy.. so what do you think he will do below 100%?
#7- Sit Sproles - with the emergence of Ivory and a crowded backfield look for Sproles touches to be down.. coming off an injury i could see the Saints cutting back on his work load
#8- Sit your Steelers- With Big Ben out everyone takes a hit. The backfield is stufffed and no one knows whos going to get the ball. If Mendenhall starts and goes 2 rushes for 3 yards on the first series whos to say dwyer doesnt take over.. just a big mess right now..
#9- Start Greg Olsen- Cam has been looking his way recently in the red zone and with this game gearing up to be a shoot out i think he could have a nice day with a td and a bunch of catches..
#10- Start Felix Jones- could be a sweet rb2 this week.. with dallas bringing a nice lead into the 2nd half you could see him getting a ton of carries and producing this week..
these are just some of my opinions and tips... hopefully this helps at least one person and I have done my job...
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@mackfbb
Next Years Draft - Early Edition
Lets step into the future. Here is a 3 round mock draft that I recently completed. Maybe it will give a bit of insight into next years values, for those of you in keeper leagues. This draft is based o
n a 12 team, ppr league, with a QB. RB, RB, WR, WR, FLEX, TE, K, DST lineup.
1- Aaron Rodgers
2- Arian Foster
3- Adrian Peterson
4- Ray Rice
5- Drew Brees
6- Doug Martin
7- A.J. Green
8- Calvin Johnson
9- Chris Johnson
10- Marshawn Lynch
11- C.J. Spiller
12- LeSean McCoy
A few surprises here but nothing mind blowing. Doug Martin has been a versatile go to back, but its interesting to see him go ahead of some of the more established backs. Also Aaron Rodgers at #1 is no shock, despite getting off to a slow start he is still out scoring the whole league by more then 100 pts in some formats.
13- Trent Richardson
14- Tom Brady
15- Brandon Marshall
16- Matt Ryan
17- Jamal Charles
18- Robert Griffin III
19- Victor Cruz
20- Rob Gronkowski
21- Demaryius Thomas
22- Frank Gore
23- Wes Welker
24- Matt Forte
Wow, now this round got interesting. It appears as though Matt Ryan has final made the jump for quality mid round pick to a top pick, build your team around sorta guy. The eccentric Brandon Marshall gets the nod as the 3rd WR selected, its almost understandable. He has put up good numbers and is really the only receiving option on that team. I like the RG3 pick, taken over Peyton who has a few more points at this point in the season. Also with his upside I like seeing him go before the busts from this year Stafford, Newton, Romo, Vick and Eli.
Gronk drop a few spots from his ADP after a relatively slow start. Lastly, interesting to see Matt Forte last till end of the 2nd.
25- Darren McFadden
26- Willis McGahee
27- Percy Harvin
28- Steven Ridley
29- Reggie Bush
30- Roddy White
31- Ahmad Bradshaw
32- Jimmy Graham
33- Julio Jones
34- Alfred Morris
35- Ryan Mathews
36- Darren Sproles
Well well well, no Qbs taken in the 3rd. Another run on RBs, it will be interesting to see if Ridley can stay involved in an always liquid N.E. backfield. I wonder if the Mathews pick was made on name alone, he has been like fantasy herpes this year. Sproles is money in a ppr league but you gotta wonder whats happening with that injury. Also it seems like there was plenty of top notch WR talent available and still available in future rounds.
Id love to hear what you guys think of this 1st 2013 mock draft. Any picks you love/hate? Hit us here or on twitter @JoeGibbonsFBB @MackFbb @FntsyBllyBstrs
Check our Facebook out at http://www.facebook.com/FantasyBullyBustercom
Fantasy Football Week 11: Top Ten Players You Should Start
http://www.rantsports.com/fantasy/2012/11/17/fantasy-football-week-11-ten-players-you-must-start/
Week 11 Rankings, Which Matchups to Exploit, Which to Avoid
Week 11 has come and gone and we started to see mother nature get involved in several games namely the Houston vs. Chicago game and the Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh game. Both turned into wet, run heav
y games with no passer exceeding 155 yards. We have not had to worry about weather so far this season but it may be time to at least take a look before locking in those line-ups.
Another thing to take notice of was the yahoo outage, which started around 12pm eastern on SUNDAY. I’m not sure how many of you use yahoo leagues but I heard countless horror stories this week. I have two quick things on this, first, yahoo is the run away leader for fantasy football and I’m giving them a pass this one time.
If it happens again I’m jumping ship as I’ve got too much ‘invested’ in various leagues but I’m not leaving the best fantasy site on the net after one snafu. Number two, let this be a lesson to us all to make sure our lineups are set by Friday or sometime Saturday. I usually set my preliminary line up Tuesday or Wednesday especially with the Thursday games then come back Sunday morning to make any tweaks based on news/tweets. I’d suggest you take a similar approach to ensure you know you always have your best line up in play.
Off to the rankings!!!
QUARTERBACKS
Matchups to Exploit:
Carson Palmer has a great matchup vs. the Saints worst pass defense and he should take advantage. Don’t sit a stud like Peyton Manning or Stafford but if you are lucky enough to have Eli on a bye this week, Palmer should fill in just fine. The Saints allow 322 yards a game to QBs and Palmer has 106 attempts his last two games. This just in, Oakland likes to throw and odds are they’ll be playing catchup or at least keep up in this game.
Andrew Luck is hitting a nice stride and had his first solid game on the road last Thursday vs. the Jags. This week he gets the Pats who give up just under 300 yards a game passing. New England has allowed 19 passing touchdowns vs. only 10 interceptions. Luck has also proved he’s a threat to run for a score with five rushing touchdowns on the season.
Cam Newton should have a bounce back game vs. the Bucs that allow 331 yards passing and 20.1 points to opposing QBs. Tampa Bay ranks 4th on the season in points scored and Carolina has proven they have no ability to run the ball effectively so Cam will have to air it out to keep up.
Tony Romo looks primed for a nice game returning home and facing the Cleveland Browns. The Browns only allow 116 yards a game on the ground so Felix and company may struggle meaning Tony will have to throw to bring home the win.
Look out now, I’m throwing Colin Kaepernick in the mix and yes, he’ facing the vaunted Bears defense. Obviously this pick is based on Smith being out but if Colin plays, I think he’ll be just fine, from a fantasy perspective. He showed last week he has no problem pulling the ball down and running and I expect he’ll gain at least 50 yards on the ground. Excuse the comparison but think of Tebow, only faster and a more accurate passer.
The other point here is Chicago will be without Jay Cutler so their defense could spend a lot more time on the field if Campbell fails to move the ball. Jason could also provide a couple short field opportunities for Kap and the 49er’s. Kaepernick will have an interception or two but if he puts up 65 yards rushing, 150 yards passing with one rushing TD, one passing TD and one pick that’s good for 20.5 points, a very solid day for a back-up QB.
Matchups to Avoid:
Joe Flacco leads off this list as he has played horribly on the road this year. He averages almost 23 points a game at home but less than 10 points a game on the road. This week Flacco goes to Pittsburgh to play the Roethlisbergerless Steelers. I think this game is won on the ground and is low scoring.
Philip Rivers could struggle at Denver this week. Champ Bailey has been a shut down corner and the Charges just don’t have an elite wide receiver corps to make up the difference. The Broncos allow a low 6.5 yards per attempt so it could be dink and dunk for Rivers.
Matt Schaub may not have to do much work at home on Sunday as the Jags have the 30th worst run defense in the league. Schaub only had 95 yards passing last week and the Jags have only allowed 9 passing touchdowns through 9 games. This should be the Foster show we were expecting vs. the Bills two weeks ago.
Below is the full line-up for week 10 matchups. The charts below read as follows: Defense Rank vs. Position (QB, RB, WR, TE) Team Name, Opponent, Team Studs, and Matchups to watch.
Defenses with a rank of 32 are the worst and give up the most points to the position. Defenses with 1 are the best and give up the fewest points to the position. I’ve mentioned it before but for you new readers, I’m not ranking Nick Foles over Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, it’s just that Foles has better matchup due to the defense he’s facing.
32 - Saints vs. Raiders ---> Palmer
31 - Bills vs. Dolphins ---> Tannehill
30 - Redskins vs. Eagles ---> Foles
29 - Vikings -- BYE WEEK
28 - Raiders vs. Saints ---> Brees
27 - Patriots vs. Colts ---> Luck
26 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers ---> Newton
25 - Titans -- BYE WEEK
24 - Browns vs. Cowboys ---> Romo
23 - Chiefs vs. Bengals ---> Dalton
22 - Rams vs. Jets ---> Sanchez
21 - Dolphins vs. Bills ---> Fitzpatrick
20 - Giants -- BYE WEEK
19 - Colts vs. Patriots ---> Brady
18 - Jaguars vs. Texans ---> Schaub
17 - Chargers vs. Broncos ---> Manning
16 - Lions vs. Packers ---> Rodgers
15 - Packers vs. Lions ---> Stafford
14 - Bengals vs. Chiefs ---> Cassel
13 - Broncos vs. Chargers ---> Rivers
12 - Eagles vs. Redskins ---> RGIII
11 - Falcons vs. Cardinals ---> Skelton
10 - Panthers vs. Buccaneers ---> Freeman
9 - Jets vs. Rams ---> Bradford
8 - Cardinals vs. Falcons ---> Ryan
7 - Cowboys vs. Browns ---> Weeden
6 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Leftwich
5 - 49ers vs. Bears ---> Campbell
4 - Texans vs. Jaguars ---> Gabbert
3 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Flacco
2 - Seahawks -- BYE WEEK
1 - Bears vs. 49ers ---> Smith, Kaepernick
RUNNING BACKS
Matchups to Exploit:
Reggie Bush didn’t produce last week the way I’d expected but he gets the easiest matchup this week and should be considered a low end RB1 or high end RB2. The Bills have given up 16 touchdowns to RBs through 9 games, that’s 4 more than any other team. On average they allow opposing RBs to score 27.7 points a week, yes please!
Marcel Reece is poised for yet another big game, especially in PPR formats. I don’t buy that McFadden will be back this week so Reece against the Saints that give up 50 yards receiving to RBs and another 137 on the ground looks very juicy. Add the fact that this should be a high scoring affair and you’ve got yourself a solid RB2 this week.
Larod Stephens-Howling has a better matchup than you might think. The Falcons allow 156 yards a game to RBs and a 4.7 yard per carry average. LSH is playing for his job this week with Beannie Wells expected back next week. LSH will be playing inspired ball and the should see a couple extra looks as a receiver and Atlanta allows 48 yards a game receiving to RBs. LSH is a good flex this week.
Stephen Jackson may have just played his way back to a featured role. Look the trade deadline has come and gone and SJax is still a Ram. That said, he will not be a Ram next year so look for St Louis to use him more heavily down the stretch. The Jets give up 151 yards a game and 21.1 points to opposing RBs. SJax is a solid RB2 this week and a great flex.
CJ Spiller has a tough matchup vs. Miami’s 5th best run defense but it won’t matter. The Fins only allow 116 yards a game to RBs but with Fred Jackson sidelined with a concussion, Spiller will get a full workload. Chan Gailey reported he plans to give Spiller between 25 and 30 touches on Thursday. During the 2012 season Spiller is averaging over 8 yards per touch. Let’s see, 25 times 8, carry the 2, that’s 200 yards! I’m not saying he reaches that level but he should have a great day and is a top tier RB1.
Matchups to Avoid:
Ryan Mathews faces a middle of the road defense in the Broncos who rank 14th vs. the RB. However, Denver has had no trouble putting up points with both their defense and offense lately and that means San Diego could be playing from behind. Ronnie Brown seems to be the third down/passing RB of choice for the Chargers so I think we’ll see a lot more of him Sunday afternoon.
Frank Gore was my ‘exploit’ gut call last week and produced nicely in a bad matchup vs. St Louis but don’t expect that to happen again. Reports out of San Fran were that Gore was ‘very sore’ after the game so I expect Kendall Hunter will see more action this week as the 49er’s try to keep Gore somewhat fresh for a playoff run. There’s also the situation at QB with Smith possibly missing the game. If Kaepernick starts at QB, which I’m expecting, the Bears will probably put 8 in the box and force Colin to beat them with his arm.
Rashad Jennings production has trailed off in three consecutive weeks scoring 16, 10, 7 and 2 points over the last four weeks. Jennings faces the Texans who only give up 11.1 points a game to RBs and have still not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Jennings was the hottest waiver pickup after MJD went down but he’s borderline droppable at this point.
32 - Bills vs. Dolphins ---> Bush, Thomas
31 - Saints vs. Raiders ---> Reece
30 - Jaguars vs. Texans ---> Foster
29 - Raiders vs. Saints ---> Thomas, Ivory
28 - Titans -- BYE WEEK
27 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Redman
26 - Falcons vs. Cardinals ---> LSH
25 - Colts vs. Patriots ---> Ridley
24 - Chiefs vs. Bengals ---> BJGE
23 - Panthers vs. Buccaneers ---> Martin
22 - Jets vs. Rams ---> Jackson, Richardson
21 - Bengals vs. Chiefs ---> Charles
20 - Browns vs. Cowboys ---> Jones
19 - Rams vs. Jets ---> Greene
18 - Cowboys vs. Browns ---> Richardson
17 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers ---> JStew
16 - Eagles vs. Redskins ---> Morris
15 - Packers vs. Lions ---> Leshoure
14 - Broncos vs. Chargers ---> Mathews
13 - Chargers vs. Broncos ---> McGahee
12 - Vikings -- BYE WEEK
11 - Cardinals vs. Falcons ---> Turner
10 - Redskins vs. Eagles ---> McCoy
9 - Patriots vs. Colts ---> Ballard, Brown
8 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Rice
7 - Lions vs. Packers ---> Green
6 - Giants -- BYE WEEK
5 - Dolphins vs. Bills ---> Spiller
4 - Seahawks -- BYE WEEK
3 - Bears vs. 49ers ---> Gore
2 - Texans vs. Jaguars ---> Jennings
1 - 49ers vs. Bears ---> Forte
WIDE RECEIVERS
Matchups to Exploit:
Denarius Moore continued his hot streak with another touchdown this weekend, he’s scored in 4 of the last 5 games. This week he plays the Saints that allow 213 yards a game to opposing WRs. The Saints also allow the second highest yards per attempt average in 16.0 second only to the Chiefs so look for Moore or DHB to get deep. Moore is 12th in targets and 7th in WR points the last three weeks, I expect another nice game as a solid WR2.
Jeremy Maclin has a new quarterback and Nick Foles looked his way often last week after taking over for Vick. Maclin ended the game with 12 targets which he turned into eight receptions for 93 yards and a score. Foles and Maclin face the pass friendly Redskins that give up 221 yards and 29.3 points a game to opposing wide receivers. The Redskins also have a high 15.1 YPA but I think Maclin dominates this matchup, not Desean Jackson.
Steve Smith struggled as expected last week vs. Champ Bailey and only managed one catch for 19 yards. Lucky for Smith he gets a nice bounce back game vs. Tampa Bay that just allowed Danario Alexander 134 yards and a score. The Bucs give up 232 yards a game to opposing wide receivers and Smith ranks 3rd in targets over the last three weeks so you have to think he should be able to capitalize.
Wes Welker faces the Colts this week that only give up 12.6 yards per attempt. In other words, they can be beat with short passes out of the slot, exactly where Welker plays and exceeds. The typical knock on Welker is the lack of touchdowns though he dropped an easy seem pass Sunday that would have netted a nice 30 yard touchdown. Welker is 6th on the season in targets and 16th in wide receiver scoring, he’s a solid WR2 this week.
Marques Colston faces the Raiders this weekend in what I think should be a shoot out and with a current over/under of 54, Vegas seems to agree. Besides Jimmy Graham, Colston is Brees go to guy and is currently 11th in targets on the year. Oakland gives up 15.1 yards per attempt meaning they can be beat deep and I think Colston will take advantage.
Matchups to Avoid:
Brandon Marshall has a new quarterback and Jason Campbell is not known as a deep ball passer. He averages 6.7 yards per attempt. Here are some comparisons, Rodgers (8.1), Romo (8.0), Big Ben (8.0), Rivers (7.9). I think all this leads to fewer attempts down field as the Bears lean more heavily on the run and Matt Forte. It doesn’t help that he is facing the 49ers that rank 6th vs. wide receivers and have only give up four touchdowns to wide outs.
Mike Wallace also lost his quarterback last week and his situation is actually worse. Byron Leftwich has a career yards per attempt of 6.6 so I like Emmanuel Sanders more than Wallace this week. Add the fact that the Ravens only allow a low 12.7 yards per attempt to wide outs and I think Wallace is held in check this week.
Dwayne Bowe squares up against the Bengals that have only allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers this year. Bowe hasn’t eclipsed 80 yards or scored in five consecutive games. While Cassel back at QB did help the targets, the yards and scores just haven’t been there. Bowe remains a WR2 in PPR formats as he’s 8th in targets on the year but in standard leagues he’s a WR3 or flex.
32 - Saints vs. Raiders ---> Moore, DHB
31 - Redskins vs. Eagles ---> Jackson, Maclin
30 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers ---> Smith, Lafell
29 - Browns vs. Cowboys ---> Bryant, Austin
28 - Patriots vs. Colts ---> Wayne, Avery
27 - Colts vs. Patriots ---> Welker, Llyod
26 - Giants -- BYE WEEK
25 - Dolphins vs. Bills ---> Johnson, Jones
24 - Bills vs. Dolphins ---> Hartline, Bess
23 - Packers vs. Lions ---> Johnson, Young, Broyles
22 - Titans -- BYE WEEK
21 - Raiders vs. Saints ---> Colston, Moore
20 - Chargers vs. Broncos ---> Thomas, Decker
19 - Cardinals vs. Falcons ---> White, Jones
18 - Jaguars vs. Texans ---> Johnson
17 - Lions vs. Packers ---> Nelson, Cobb, Jones
16 - Eagles vs. Redskins ---> Moss, Hankerson
15 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Wallace, Sanders
14 - Chiefs vs. Bengals ---> AJ Green, Hawkins
13 - Vikings -- BYE WEEK
12 - Cowboys vs. Browns ---> Little, Gordon
11 - Rams vs. Jets ---> Kerley
10 - Bengals vs. Chiefs ---> Bowe
9 - Bears vs. 49ers ---> Crabtree, Manningham
8 - Panthers vs. Buccaneers ---> Jackson, Williams
7 - Texans vs. Jaguars ---> Blackmon, Shorts
6 - 49ers vs. Bears ---> Marshall
5 - Falcons vs. Cardinals ---> Fitzgerald, Roberts
4 - Broncos vs. Chargers ---> Floyd, Alexander
3 - Jets vs. Rams ---> Amendola, Gibson, Givens
2 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Smith, Boldin
1 - Seahawks -- BYE WEEK
TIGHT ENDS
Matchups to Exploit:
Brent Celek has the enviable task of facing the Redskins that have given up seven touchdowns to tight ends and allow 70 yards per game. With Nick Foles taking over the reigns of the offense, he’ll look to his first or second read mostly and keep the routes short to get the ball out quickly. I think Celek will outperform expectations Sunday.
Dustin Keller faces the Rams that give up 60 yards a game to the tight end position. Keller is 11th in targets the last three weeks and is definitely Sanchez’s security blanket. He should produce TE1 numbers this week.
Matchups to Avoid:
Logan Paulsen is matched up vs. the Eagles that have only given up two touchdowns to tight ends all year. RGIII seems to have hit a slump lately and with the Redskins coming off a bye, look for them to get back to the run game more and let RGIII manage a game instead of try to win it.
32 - Broncos vs. Chargers ---> Gates
31 - Redskins vs. Eagles ---> Celek
30 - Titans -- BYE WEEK
29 - Patriots vs. Colts ---> Allen
28 - Jets vs. Rams ---> Kendricks
27 - Bengals vs. Chiefs ---> Moeaki
26 - Falcons vs. Cardinals ---> King
25 - Bills vs. Dolphins ---> Fasano
24 - Raiders vs. Saints ---> Graham
23 - Lions vs. Packers ---> Finley
22 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers ---> Olsen
21 - Rams vs. Jets ---> Keller
20 - Vikings -- BYE WEEK
19 - Saints vs. Raiders ---> Myers
18 - Dolphins vs. Bills ---> Chandler
17 - Giants -- BYE WEEK
16 - Panthers vs. Buccaneers ---> Clark
15 - Ravens vs. Steelers ---> Miller
14 - Chiefs vs. Bengals ---> Gresham
13 - Seahawks -- BYE WEEK
12 - Packers vs. Lions ---> Pettigrew
11 - Texans vs. Jaguars ---> Lewis
10 - Steelers vs. Ravens ---> Pitta
9 - Eagles vs. Redskins ---> Paulsen
8 - Cowboys vs. Browns ---> Watson
7 - Cardinals vs. Falcons ---> Gonzalez
6 - Bears vs. 49ers ---> Davis
5 - Chargers vs. Broncos ---> Dreesen
4 - 49ers vs. Bears ---> Davis
3 - Browns vs. Cowboys ---> Witten
2 - Jaguars vs. Texans ---> Daniels
1 - Colts vs. Patriots ---> Gronkowski, Hernandez
So, you’ve checked out the article, what do you think? Leave a comment below and let me know if you like what you see or if you want to see something different. If you know of an article you’d like to see, hit me up, I’m all ears.
You can find me on twitter @tmcdannell and if you like what you see in the content, help me out and give me a follow.
Feel free to shoot me start/sit questions or any other fantasy questions, I’m always up for a good discussion and always answer my tweets. Good luck in week 11!
Fighting for the Last Playoff Spot
#fantasyfootball. Fighting for that final playoff spot
#Fantasyfootball
Fighting for that final playoff spot.... By now every team has an idea where they are at this season. Some teams are e
ither in or out of the playoffs by one or two games. This article is for those teams who can't afford to lose another game
The first thing I'm doing to assure victory here on out is I'm trading all my players in a bye week 11. Players on the Giants, Vikings, Seahawks, and Titans with any kinda value are on my trading block. Even if I have to take a hit in overall value I'm going to try to fill that week 11 void. For example I would move Peterson for a player like Rice, Martin, Lynch or Foster. All those guys ranked below Peterson but will be playing week 11.
The second thing I'm looking at is match ups. I'll be looking to trade any player on my team for players who appear to have softer schedules the rest of the way. I did a bit of research and these are the teams I feel have softer schedules to help your cause to win out. The Bills, Pats, Bengals, Texans, Colts, Broncos , Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Panthers and Buccs all look to be playing teams with weak defenses for the remainder of the year. When trading I would target guys on these teams.
Lastly if you have nothing left to lose, you need to move your stud players. Move Rice , Move Peterson, Move Megatron! Look to get those players on teams I mentioned above. Get a couple of them. Target winning teams in your league who have depth, Who can afford to lose some guys on the bench that could be helping your cause to bring home the trophy. It's now or never and you have to be in it to win it. Another loss and you will have 8 months to look at your 2012 draft list and realize all the mistakes you made. Keep the dream alive!
Rest of Season Strategy
Rest of Season Strategy
by Christopher Diaz with contributions from Anthony Mcelwee and Joe Gibbons
Since there are three weeks left in this fantasy football season, there are 3 possib
le scenarios. Teams playing for next year, Teams fighting for the playoffs and Teams getting ready for the playoffs.
Let`s first take those playing for next year.
If your out of it you should continue to set your lineups and try to field a competitive team until the season is over. Isn`t that what you would want from teams that we`re already eliminated, no one should have to get easy wins because an owner is not setting their lineups and such.
If your in keeper leagues you should be trading players you can not keep for players that are keeper eligible. Some young obtainable talent out there that i would highly recommend are
C J Spiller
Fred Jackson is not getting any younger and at this point of the season Spiller is averaging over 7 yards per carry. If the season ended today that would be the best season rushing average EVER. Plus with Jackson being 32 next year i can not see him being a lead back anymore. Spiller will be taking the lions share of this job for the future.
Randal Cobb
Greg Jennings is a free agent after this season i can`t see Green Bay bringing him back when they have a younger, cheaper and more explosive version of him in Cobb.
Daniel Thomas
Reggie bush is already losing time to Daniel Thomas and Bush is not getting any younger. the key thing is that Bush is a free agent next year and i can not see the Dolphins bringing him back since they used such a high pick on Thomas in last year NFL draft.
Josh Freeman
The young QB in his third year is having a very solid year and it looks like Greg Schiano has this Bucs team headed in the right direction. Freeman was drafted in most leagues as a back up and has to have a nice keeper status next year in all types of keeper leagues.
Teams fighting for that final playoff spot
The first thing I'm doing to assure victory here on out is I'm trading all my players on bye in week 11. Teams on bye are the Giants, Vikings, Seahawks, and Titans any players of value on these teams are on my trading block this week. Even if I have to take a slight hit in overall value I'm going to try to fill that week 11 void. For example I would move Peterson for a player like Rice, Martin, Lynch or Foster. All those guys ranked below Peterson but will be playing week 11 which makes them much more valuable to your team fighting to make the playoffs.
The second thing I'm looking at is the match ups for my players. I'll be looking to trade any player on my team for players who appear to have softer schedules the rest of the way. I did a little bit of research and these are the positions I feel that have softer schedules to help to try and win out. When trading I would target the following players for their positions.
QB`s to target
Andrew Luck @NE, BUF, @DET
Carson Palmer NO, @CIN, CLE
Peyton Manning SD, @KC, TB
RB`s to target
Jamaal Charles CIN, DEN, CAR
Willis Mcgahee SD, @CIN, TB
Doug Martin @CAR, ATL, @DEN
WR`s to target
Roddy White, Julio Jones ARI, @TB, NO
Demariyus Thomas, Eric Decker SD, @CIN, TB
Austin Miles, Dez Bryant CLE, WAS, PHI
TE`s to target
Brent Celek @WAS, CAR @DAL
Antonio Gates @DEN, BAL, CIN
Vernon Davis CHI, @NO, @STL
So now using the above players to target, try to trade your players on bye in week 11 and with difficult match ups for some of these player in this group in a one for one deal or maybe trading one for two of the players in this group. Remember if you don`t make the playoffs you can`t win the title. No ones gonna care if you had Adrian Peterson this year but they will always remember that you won the title!!!
Teams getting ready for the playoffs
If i know my team is in the playoffs or looking very good to make the playoffs i want to trade for players with great playoff matchups. The following list of players are players i would target to bring home the title and have great match ups for weeks 14-16.
QB`s to target
Carson Palmer DEN, KC, @CAR
Eli Manning NO, @ATL, @BAL
Peyton Manning @OAK, @BAL, CLE
RB`s to target
Jamaal Charles @CLE, @OAK, IND
Willis Mcgahee @OAK, @BAL, CLE
Doug Martin PHI, @NO, STL
WR`s to target
Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks NO, @ATL, @BAL
Roddy White and Julio Jones @CAR, NYG, @DET
Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker @OAK, @BAL, CLE
TE`s to target
Martellus Bennet NO, @ATL, @BAL
Brent Celek @TB, CIN, WAS
Antonio Gates @PIT, CAR, @NYJ
Good Luck and Win it all, even if its next year
Anatomy of a Trade
THE ANATOMY OF A DEAL. (Basics)
Its that time of the year were making a trade can pull you out of the cellar for epic comeback or maybe solidify your roster for a run to the glory land. Her
e are a few basic strategies involved in making a deal.
- Working the BLOCK-
Everyone should be using there leagues trading block regularly. First off, don't bother wasting anyone's time filling your block with bench players, kickers or any other players that you know you would never trade for. You need to find the valuable asset on your team that your willing to part with and put them on there with some comments about what your looking for and maybe throw in a little something about your guys value. Next, check out the blocks of all the other teams. You should be able to find a few guys that you are interested in. Now its time to cross reference those players with the record of the team that they are currently on. Looking at a teams record will give you a good idea how desperate they might be to make a deal. Or, if a team is doing well they might not have any interest in mixing things up.
- Making the offer
Here is all negotiations could come to a screeching halt before they even get rolling. If you send a low ball offer you risk having the other owner think your just a jerk who is trying to rip him off. Something you need to keep in mind here is, EVERYONE overvalues there own players. Its as if because they drafted them and believed in them before the season starts, they just cant let themselves believe that they were wrong in the projections of a guy. You need to do a little homework before you send and offer out. You have to find out the needs of the team your trading with. Whether is be a bye week replacement, a postion of need or maybe a complete overhaul because there team stinks but they have 1 player that you want. You also need to look in to future schedule especially if your sitting in a playoff spot right now. Finding guys on teams with easy games during fantasy playoff time is the difference between an early exit and a sweet sweet championship payday. Another issue you need to consider the ole stock market adage "buy low, sell high." Its very rare that you will find another owner who is willing give you something good for a guy who hasn't produced in weeks. In turn you need to stare into your crystal ball (doesn't every fantasy gm have one?) or you can just watch the games and find the guy that in undervalued on another team that you know is ready to blow up. When you do actually send an offer over, make sure you use the comment box to let the other know why you think this deal would be truly beneficial to both your squads. Also be sure to add something like " If this doesn't work for you, send me a counter offer. I'm sure we can work something out. "
I think that is a good lesson for the noob (gamer word for newbies). I know all of this is probably common practice for you fantasy veterans.
If you have any trade questions or need any help working out a deal we are here for you guys 24/7 @JoeGibbonsfbb @Mackfbb @fntsybllybstrs
Also, once we get the site up and running we will have a trade analyzer on there that will help out. Especially the commissioners who are dealing with tough choices to make on questionable trades.
Thanks everyone and please give us a retweet and like on Facebook, it would really help us out. I promise we wont disappoint you.
Week 11 TE and Defense Plays
This is the last of the bye weeks, but it's the first of the concussion weeks. A number of high profile QB's might be out indefinitely, and this is an opportunity to show true fantasy strategy by expl
oiting uncertain backup QB performances.
In the realm of Tight Ends, it appears the top-tier versus everyone else outcome that appears to be a weekly thing. Unless you've got a Graham Gronk or Gonzo, it's been about adequate numbers and a little bit of luck on your side, because the Tight End this year has been inconsistent and downright poor often times.
Greg Olsen-If you are rolling with Olsen all year, you've gotten fair production thus far. At home, he should be able to see plenty of targets from Cam and exploit a less than stellar Tampa secondary. I see eup at least 5 catches and a TD this week.
Dustin Keller-Keller has a decent matchup against St. Louis and has been pretty consistent over the last month. He's about the only Jet worth starting and if you're okay with accepting adequate at the TE position this week and going forward, Keller is definitely your 'he'll do' guy.
Cowboys DST-Cleveland is improving as of late, but they are very consistent at allowing sacks and turning the ball over. I expect Demarcus Ware to get to Brandon Weeden early and often. The Cowboys are entering their push phase of the season, and this week they'll continue their impressive defensive performance. I'd pick them up with high confidence if they're sitting our their on your waiver wire.
Rams DST-As mentioned above, the Jets offense outside of a few rare bright spots has been pretty much horrendous and difficult to watch. The Rams will force Sanchez to turn the ball over at least twice and I would not be surprised if he continues his pick six party. The Rams are a very nice play this week if you're doing the plug and play thing.
Out of Rounds Fantasy Football Week 11 Top Picks
Waiver Wire
Mike
Mohamed Sanu, WR, CIN
This is a deep waiver pick up for dynasty leagues. Sanu is a 23 year-old rookie WR with the Bengals. He's raw and athletic. I
've had my eye on him for the past few weeks as Cincy has been giving this guy more playing time in 3 receiver sets. With AJ Green a top playmaker and Greshem finally living up to his projections the last few weeks, Sanu receives single coverage and is a nice third option in the pass happy Bengals offense. Week 10 was by far Sanu's best game, being targeted 6 times (second only to AJ Green) and snagging 4 catches for 47 yards and 1 TD.
Rich
Donald Jones, WR, BUF
It's criminal how low the fantasy ownership is for Jones (a mere 13% in CBS leagues). In Week 7, he went 4 for 47 with a TD. In Week 9, he brought his lunchbox to work and went 6 for 65. And then this week against the Pats, he caught 6 balls for 74 yards and a TD. And he's sitting on 87% of league waiver wires!?! Fitzpatrick's a brainiac gunslinger. The Zach Galifianakis of football. And Jones is proving to be a solid receiver whom he trusts. Even if you're loaded at WR, Jones is still a good pickup to prepare for the playoffs.
"Don't Believe the Hype"
Mike
Chris Ivory, RB, NO
In week 2, I tabbed the entire Saints running back corp as over-hyped. I'll echo that this week and say avoid Chris Ivory. He went for 72 yards and a score, but much of the hype came off his 56-yard run, juking and stiff arming his way through the defense. Avoid this guy since he wont be starting material throughout the rest of the season. You'll have better luck picking the winning PowerBall numbers this week than picking which Saint's RB gets the lion share of carries and is actually able to do something with them.
Rich
Danny Amendola, WR, STL
Amendola, who just came back from a shoulder injury, caught 11 balls for 102 yards in Week 10. Not bad. In fact, it's real good. Bradford loves him and he'll continue to get many looks each game. But double-digit receptions and triple-digit yardage totals will be the exception, not the rule. Those that try to hype him up as a #1 WR will probably also tell you that Ochocinco's just misunderstood. Amendola's a solid WR, good for a big game every now and again.
Undervalued
Mike
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
Our readers know I'm on the Andrew Luck band wagon as the dynasty QB to own. Rich and I profiled Donnie Avery and TY Hilton, but Reggie Wayne may win the "Under-Appreciated Player of the Year" Award. He's just such a steady presence for Luck. Wayne is easily targeted 10 plus times a game and that usually nets him 6-8 catches and at least 80 yards. He only has 3 TD's on the year, and that's what's keeping him under-the-radar for most fantasy owners. The Colts are wining games and appear to be playoff bound. If Wayne starts getting in the end zone more, he's easily a #2 WR.
Rich
Cecil Shorts, WR, JAC
Last time I wrote about Shorts, he was my waiver wire pick and only owned in about 10% of fantasy leagues. Now that number's up to about 60% and it's still too low. His yardage totals for the last 4 weeks have been solid (between 56 and 116) and he's got 2 TD's in that span as well. He's emerged as the Jags' leading receiver, ahead of the much-heralded, yet-to-produce Justin Blackmon. Move on him while his value is still lower than it should be.
Be sure to check us out at www.outofrounds.com and Twitter @outofrounds.
25 Things You Need to Know as Your Fantasy Football Season Draws to a Close
Fantasy football has crossed the midseason point and is now racing down the stretch toward the playoffs. Trade deadlines are coming; soon fantasy owners’ only potential de facto trade partner will be
the waiver wire.
End-of-season schedules should be considered in add/drop and trading decisions. It’s important not to over-value them—trading Adrian Peterson straight up for Willis McGahee is not advisable just because Peterson plays the Chicago Bears twice and McGahee draws the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.
Peterson’s more consistent than McGahee. Furthermore, he’s matchup-proof.
The dude’s simply a beast.
In no particular order—because every fantasy owner’s specific priorities are different—here are 25 things that every fantasy owner should know:
1. Adrian Peterson's TD drought is gone.
2. C.J. Spiller's production without Fred Jackson
3. Steven Jackson is getting work in St. Louis.
4. Chris Johnson is a must-start.
5. Andre Brown is a must-own.
6. San Francisco 49ers run defense is no longer a fantasy red light.
7. The Houston Texans haven't allowed a rushing touchdown.
8. Running backs are successful vs. the Minnesota Vikings.
9. Indianapolis Colts aren't such a great matchup for fantasy RBs.
10. The Cleveland Browns are back to locking up fantasy WRs.
11. Aqib Talib is a New England Patriot.
12. The New Orleans Saints are winning, but its defense is still a great fantasy matchup.
13. The Tennessee Titans aren't so great for fantasy tight ends.
14. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the only team not to allow a receiving TD to a TE.
15. The Kansas City Chiefs are a great matchup for fantasy D/STs.
16. The Arizona Cardinals give up sacks in bunches.
17. Cam Newton should finish the season hot.
18. Eli Manning has a favorable end-of-season schedule.
19. Russell Wilson is legit at home.
20. Total double-digit tight end trends
21. Tight end fantasy scoring trends under real referees
22. Tight end fantasy scoring trends under replacement referees
23. Eric Decker has more TDs than Demaryius Thomas.
24. The most productive Green Bay Packers target
25. Go get Danario Alexander!
For detailed analysis on each point: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1407081-25-things-you-need-to-know-as-your-fantasy-football-season-draws-to-a-close
Week 11 RB Waiver Wire
The final bye week has finally approached, meaning there will be less of a scramble over the next few weeks on who to add and drop to set the optimal line-up every week. This week's bye sees CJ2K, Ah
mad Bradshaw, Marshawn Lynch, and AP taking a seat on the bench, let's see who you can replace these players with:
1. Rashard Mendenhall/PIT - Mendenhall hasn't played since week 6 when he suffered an Achilles injury at Tennessee. It was a toss-up whether he would play against Kansas City in week 10, but the chances of Mendenhall playing in week 11 is very high. Obviously you'll have to monitor his participation in practice, but he's the #1 RB option for Pittsburgh if he suits up against the Ravens.
2. Donald Brown/IND - Like Mendenhall, Brown's status for week 10 was uncertain right up until game time against the Jaguars. Despite splitting carries with Vick Ballard, Brown will get the upper edge in touches. Last week, Ballard had 12 carries compared to Brown's 14. He'll have 10 days of rest since the TNF match-up, giving us no doubt he'll be suiting up and being productive in week 11.
3. Marcel Reece/OAK - Darren McFadden is still in a walking boot as of Monday, meaning he's likely doubtful to suit up in week 11. Reece is a dual-threat out of the Raiders backfield, being able to run effectively and using his soft hands to make catches in check-down situations. The Saints moved up to 31st in run defense after allowing just 42 rushing yards to the Falcons last week. Until they can prove each week that they have improved that run defense, any RB against the Saints is a good option.
Jacquizz Rodgers/ATL - If you can snatch Rodgers in a PPR league, take a flyer on him. His production has gone up in recent weeks, and you can take advantage of his KR yards. Over the last three weeks Rodgers has 14 carries for 89 yards, and he's a dangerous threat to find the end zone if he gets the ball in the open field. After Michael Turner's 10 carry, 15 yard effort last week, maybe this will be a week where the Falcons want to see what Rodgers can bring with a heavier workload.
James Starks/GB - In week 9 against the Cardinals, Starks had 17 carries for 61 yards. Despite the Packers having a weak backfield with the absence of Cedric Benson and the lack of production from Alex Green, Starks has proven that he can step in and fill the role for the Packers before. I still think that Green will be involved in the running game, but I have to give the upper hand to Starks against Detroit. The Packers receiving corp is getting healthier as well, meaning the focal point for stopping the offense will be to shut down the passing attack.
Week 11 Waiver Wire Adds
With only one more game in week 10, its time to take a look at who stood out on Sunday and who has the potential to help you get to the playoffs. Keep in mind some moves may be for the short term but
considering we are only 2 to 3 games away from the playoffs, every win counts!
QUARTERBACKS
Carson Palmer (owned 58%) Palmer had another great game Sunday throwing for 368 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. Over the last three weeks Palmer has averaged 330 yards a game and has eight touchdowns vs five interceptions. With Palmer, there’s no getting past the turnovers so review how your league penalizes interceptions before making any pickups. That said, Palmer is on a pass first team where the two starting tailbacks have high ankle sprains and his best running back option is Marcel Reece (see below) who is better as a pass catcher, not a true halfback. Throw in a week 11 matchup vs the Saints that allow 311 yards a game to QBs and I’m all in on Palmer for at least another week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (owned 49%) Fitzpatrick lit up the Patriots as he always does for 337 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Ryan struggled last week against a tough Texans defense but the previous game vs the Titans he had 225 yards passing with three touchdowns and one interception. Fitz’ upcoming schedule is home Miami (27th vs the pass), at Indy (20th vs the pass), and at Jacksonville who allow 260 yards a game to QBs. Fred Jackson left Sunday’s game late in the fourth quarter with a concussion and Buffalo has a short week playing Thursday. Chan Gailey reported today Jackson is out for that game which means more CJ Spiller. The Bills like to get Spiller in open space whether it be short dump offs or lining him up as a wide out. Fitz has a nice three game stretch especially for you Eli owners before he runs into the Rams and Seattle defenses.
Joe Flacco (owned 71%) This week’s fool’s gold award goes to Joe Flacco. His game logs this year have been eerily predictable. If he’s home, start him, if he’s away, sit him. It’s that simple. In four road games Flacco has not eclipsed 13 points and averages just under ten points a game. In five home games he’s only scored less than 19 points once and his per game average sky rockets to 22.9 points. Baltimore’s next two games are on the road against Pittsburgh and San Diego, then he comes home to play the Steelers again. I suspect over that span Flacco will struggle to reach 12-15 points a game so don’t let his big day this past Sunday fool you. He’s better on someone else’s team.
If you’re looking for pure desperation plays, Nick Foles (owned 4%) and Colin Kaepernick (owned 1%) could become starters if Vick and Smith miss time due to the concussions they suffered Sunday. As of Monday afternoon ESPN is reporting they expect Foles to take over the reins at QB whether Vick is healthy or not. This alone puts him a notch above Kaepernick though Colin is the more intriguing pickup as his upside appears much higher. He’s a running quarterback ala Cam Newton and RGIII but you have to expect in San Francisco’s conservative offense, his upside could be limited. I’d stay away from both but if I’m picking one it’s Foles simply because of the weapons he has around him and the greater chance for a long term starting role.
RUNNING BACKS
Marcel Reece (owned 33%) I had Reece as an add last week as well yet his ownership is still very low. No know knows how long McFadden and Goodson will be out with their high ankle sprains but history tells us McFadden’s not coming back soon. In the two weeks Reece has taken over he’s totaled 199 yards from scrimmage, 15 receptions and one receiving touchdown. Reece is a PPR monster that should continue for at least another game or two. There was concern that Taiwan Jones would steal touches, well he did, three of them this past Sunday. One thing we all have to remember is teams will not play a running back if he can’t pick up the blitz and protect the quarterback. Clearly that’s a concern right with Jones so capitalize on this and grab Reece before he puts up 125 yards on the Saints this coming week.
Chris Ivory (owned 10%) Ivory has a short window of opportunity but he is on fire the last two games. Darren Sproles could be back next Sunday but the Saints seem to have realized they have something in Ivory. In both games Ivory exceeded 50 yards from scrimmage and scored in both. Ivory runs angry finishing every play with the intent on punishing a defender to make sure he gets every last yard. Mark Ingram doubled Ivory’s touches Sunday totaling 16 and he only produced 67 yards with that opportunity. Ivory had 8 touches and totaled 85 yards and a score. Again, the window is small here but next week the Saints face the Raiders in what will surely be a shoot-out.
Andre Brown (owned 60%) Brown has scored in four straight games and last week vs the Bengals he totaled 94 yards from scrimmage including 5 receptions. The receiving (29 yards) was a bonus as he only had 7 receptions on the year prior to this game so he’s no PPR king. However, the Giants seem clear that Brown is their goal line back. Browns value is tied to Ahamad Bradshaw, New York’s starting tailback, but that’s a good thing considering Bradshaw’s injury history. The Giants are headed into their bye week so this is simply a stash play but Eli has been completely unable to move the ball so there’s a good chance New York leans more on the run after their bye.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Darrius Heyward-Bey (owned 54%) The Raiders keep losing but they keep putting up points, 52 the last two weeks. Heyward-Bey is benefiting from the emergence of Denarius Moore on the other side of the field and over the last two weeks DHB has 10 receptions for 156 yards and one touchdown. Again, the Raiders are a pass first team by nature and even more so after losing their two starting tailbacks. DHB is no more than a WR3 in most leagues but as I mentioned above, the Saints come to town next week and they allow 210 yards a game to wide receivers. I think DHB exceeds 75 yards again and has a very good chance to score in week 11.
Cecil Shorts (owned 32%) Shorts has strung together 4 solid games where he’s scored twice and has totaled 356 receiving yards. Gabbert seems much more comfortable passing to Shorts than the short dump offs to Rashad Jennings as we’ve seen those decrease the last four weeks from 7, 6, 3 then zero this past week. Even more encouraging than Shorts production over this time are his targets. In the past four weeks he’s totaled 39 targets or roughly 10 per week. Shorts is not just a big strike guy though he’s shown capable of that with a 52 yard bomb this past Thursday. Shorts also had a long pass called back vs Indy where the refs called him out of bounds though he clearly got two feet in and had control of the ball. Shorts is a low end WR2 and well worth a pickup and even a play vs Houston where they could be playing catchup.
Danario Alexander (owned 4%) We only have a small sample size to evaluate Alexander but he has capitalized in the past two games. Norv Turner alluded to the fact that Alexander has played his way into a larger role and it appears he’s following through giving Alexander 7 targets which he converted into 5 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown. Granted 80 of those yards came on a bomb at the beginning of the game but that’s ok. The Charges brought in Robert Meachem to take over the void left by Vincent Jackson’s deep threat ability but so far Meachem has shown he is not up to the task. Enter Alexander the last two weeks who has 195 yards on 10 receptions. I’d like to see the targets increase so we’re not dependent on the deep touchdown pass but Alexander is certainly worth stashing on your bench to see if this trend continues.
TIGHT ENDS
Brandon Myers (owned 41%) He was in last week’s column but his ownership hasn’t even cracked 50% so I’m harping his tale again. Myers has been the model of consistency this year with only two games of fewer than four receptions and he only has one game with less than 40 yards. Through week 10, Myers ranks 11th in TE targets and 5th in receptions. He’d be higher in the scoring ranks but he only has two touchdowns on the year. Still, if you’re a Martellus Bennett or Jermichael Finley owner add Myers and you’ll be happy with his steady week in, week out production.
Greg Olsen (owned 58%) Olsen has come on strong the last two weeks as he had 48 yards receiving in week 9 and 102 in week 10 to go along with two touchdowns. Olsen is your standard big TE target at 6’5” 255 pounds but he’s quick and Cam Newton has been looking for him more lately as the offensive line breaks down. Olsen has 19 targets and 14 receptions the last two weeks so not only is he getting chances, he’s converting and QB’s like to see that. Olsen is worth a grab as he’s taken on the role of Brandon Pettigrew from two years ago in that he is subplanting the Panthers terrible running game with short receptions to keep the chains moving.
Good luck Monday night as we finish out week 10. You can always find me on twitter @tmcdannell. If you like what you read here help me out and give me a follow and share with a friend.
Marry, Cheat, Dump Week 11
Sometimes fixing problems in a relationship is a lot easier than winning your fantasy football league.
In this weekly column, PigksinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is going to dis
cuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (people you should trade away or drop).
QBs (Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning)
Marry – Carson Palmer
Carson has been the model of consistency this year. Like your High School sweetheart, he’s always there for you. Whether he’s there because you quote “needed a guy” to fill in for a bye week or a player that’s just not producing Carson has been your guy. With only 1 game this year with single digit fantasy points you can rely on him to get you 15-18 fantasy points without worry. He’s on pace for 4,800 yards this year which would be a career high and there’s no reason why he won’t reach it. From now until week 15 he faces some easy throwing matchups. First, the Saints (32nd against opposing QBs), then the Bengals (21st), Browns (24th), Broncos (13th), and Chiefs (26th). Those are some great matchups to exploit throughout your playoff run. If he’s still on your waiver wire you need to go pick him up!
Cheat – Russell Wilson
Josh Freeman 2.0 should be Russell Wilson’s new nickname. They are basically mirror images of each other. Young QBs on run first teams that somehow put up huge fantasy points despite not throwing the ball that much each game. In the last three games he’s thrown 7 TDs and has 51 fantasy points despite averaging less than 200 yards passing per game and only 26 pass attempts. His 51 points is more than Drew Brees over the last 3 games (50). He’s got a bye week this week but then faces a Dolphins defense that is one of the top run defenses in the league but also 22nd against opposing QBs. Expect them to slow down Marshawn Lynch and make Wilson throw on them. He’s got a very tough schedule after the Miami game so plan on this being one of your last chances to take advantage of him.
Dump – Eli Manning
Sigh. He was in the dump section of last week’s article too. But I know that some of us like a little abuse in our relationships and just can’t let him go. Stop being the victim in this relationship and let him go. Let go of what he did last season. Let go of how high you drafted him. Take all you pre-season notes on him and just put them in a small trash bucket and burn all the memories of a lost season with Eli. 3 straight weeks of 5 or less fantasy points. In fact Blaine Gabbert, yes… Blaine Gabbert, has outscored Eli almost 4 to 1 in the last 3 games (37-10).
RBs (CJ Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Felix Jones)
Marry – CJ Spiller
Did you know that despite splitting carries with Fred Jackson for the majority of the year CJ Spiller only has 2 weeks where he did not scored double digit fantasy points in standard scoring and one of those games was against a tough 49ers defense? Now it’s looking like Fred Jackson has a concussion and may miss some time. All Spiller did as the lead back this year is 364 total yards, 3 TDs and 50 fantasy points in those 2 games. He is dynamic and Jackson is not getting any younger (32 in February). Expect the Bills to use this injury to Jackson to feature Spiller again and his 7.3 YPC average this year. He’s got a tough matchup against the Dolphins this week but then hits gold in weeks 12-14 playing the Colts (27th most fantasy points allowed to RBs), Jaguars (30th) and Rams (19th). Do not be surprised to get Jamaal Charles like production out of him from here on out and all next year.
Cheat – Felix Jones
I’ve never liked Felix Jones. He could never handle a full workload, was always getting hurt and just could not be trusted. But then again, after enough drinks even the ugliest girl in the bar starts to look good, right? Well, Felix Jones is the new ugliest girl in the bar. You watched your buddies pick up the pretty girls (Vick Ballard, Andre Brown, Daryl Richardson) and you got stuck with the Cowboys backup RB. Well he’s averaging 10 points per game as the starter in Dallas and has been getting plenty of work in the passing game. He’s producing well, and with no timetable set for Murray, could remain the guy for another couple of weeks. Keep making Jones your weekly Sunday afternoon booty call until Murray returns to the lineup.
Dump – Ahmad Bradshaw
While the Giants continue to say that Bradshaw’s injury to his foot is nothing to be concerned with and that he’ll keep playing every Sunday, there are warning signs that say you should end it now while you still can. Bradshaw is missing more and more practices over the last couple weeks and more importantly, is seeing a decrease in carries each week. 22 carries in week 8, 15 carries in week 9, 10 carries in week 10. Also, he’s losing goal line carries to Andre Brown who now has at least 1 TD in all but 1 game he’s played in this year and is tied with Ray Rice, Doug Martin, and Adrian Peterson for 2nd most rushing touchdowns this year. This injury looks worrisome and you should look to deal him now while he still has value.
WRs (Denarius Moore, Torrey Smith, Brandon Lloyd)
Marry – Denarius Moore
As I mentioned above, palmer is throwing for more yards than ever before and someone has to be on the receiving end. Moore has quietly been producing quite while having scored a TD in 4 of his last 5 games and 5 of his last 7. He’s also had at least 4 receptions in 7 of 8 games this year. The only game he didn’t get at least 4 receptions was his first game back from his injury. As I mentioned with Palmer’s schedule, Moore will have pretty smooth sailing from here until week 15. He’s a cheap date that you should be able to pick up for a low end WR2 or RB2 and get good WR1 value.
Cheat – Sidney Rice
Man, I am taking the easy route this week with my WRs. Taking the top WR to my Marry and Cheat QBs I discussed above. Look at the TDs Rice has been putting up. 5 TDs in 5 weeks, scoring in 4 of his last 5 games. His only game without a TD was against a very tough 49ers defense. Can’t blame him there. While the yards haven’t been there for him, only averaging 55/game, he is getting the TDs.
Dump – Brandon Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd. Oh, Brandon Lloyd. You were supposed to play the Randy Moss deep-threat role for a high powered offense with a Hall of Fame QB. 2 Years ago you were the #1 fantasy WR for Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton throwing you the ball. What happened? Surely Tom Brady is an improvement over Tebow, right? RIGHT?!? What a disappointment you’ve been. Only 1 100+ yard game this year and only 2 games with a TD. Not exactly what you expected from your 5th or 6th round pick that was going to be on the field every snap with Tom Brady. Since week 4 he’s only averaging a little over 3 receptions per game for only 40 yards per game. 40! Lloyd is like the girl that you go on date after date with thinking, “Tonight’s the night. This is going to be it…” only to return home heart-broken with only a cold shower to console you.
About the Author - Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. He recently joined the team of featured writers at PigskinBoss.com. If you need help with your fantasy football relationships – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin
Fishing for Elite Fantasy Players: 3 Easy Steps to Make that Blockbuster Trade Happen
I learned two things from fishing with my grandfather as a kid:
1) You can't catch something if your line's not in the water
2) The more lines in the water, the better your chanc
es of eating that night
How does that apply to fantasy sports?
Well, for one, I hear from too many of my friends how badly their teams are doing this year.
I bust out my best impression of that goofy kid on the Coke Zero commercial and say "And?"
It seems like everybody accepts failure and forgets about getting off their asses and making some moves.
Don't be one of those people . . .
1.) Identify your targets
Start by asking yourself "What player would make a huge impact on my team right now?"
Go big here. Aim for the top of the fantasy heap.
Then go to your league's "Stats" page and find that player's total fantasy points for the season.
Now look at other players who have the same or similar point totals. Try to pick out about 6-8 of them.
These are the guys you'll be fishing for.
2.) Get your lines in the water
Now look at your roster for some decent bait and start getting those lines in the water.
Offer each of those owners of the 6-8 players a good deal (not great, good) that will get them thinking long and hard.
Your goal is not a long, drawn out negotiating session. You want a quick strike.
3.) Be Patient
This is the easiest and the hardest step: turn off your light and go to bed.
When you get up in the morning, check your inbox.
Don't be surprised if you see "Trade offer accepted" in the subject line.
And if you don't, you know what to do . . .
Get some more bait on those hooks and get those lines back in the water.
Sooner or later, you'll be haulin' in that Donkey!
Be sure to check us out at www.outofrounds.com and Twitter @outofrounds.
4 Quarters: The 4 Reasons Why Andrew Luck is the QB to Own in Dynasty Leagues
At Out of Rounds we love our dynasty quarterbacks. There are ongoing debates on who fantasy GM's should build their teams around. The top quarterbacks for years have been Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Dr
ew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. While Manning may have dipped a bit due to injury, the other three are still top tier.
The new emerging crop of QB's has owners salivating: Cam Newton and his rookie record-setting campaign, Matt Stafford emerging as a top QB with a potent offense and the best receiver in Calvin Johnson, and RG3 and the man crush many have on him…
But are you feeling Lucky?
Andrew Luck is the QB I’d bet the farm on and here are 4 reasons why:
1) He had the highest rating of any college QB entering the draft since John Elway. Draft pundits get us all excited each year with the next bumper crop of QB's and talent in general, but rarely do they compare talent entering the NFL to all-time greats. The same analysis used to rate Elway was used to rate Luck. Elway was the #1 overall pick back in 1983 and since his selection 65 quarterbacks have been taken in subsequent drafts, none of which were as highly-rated as Luck.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j20fBc9DJ68]
2) Luck is smarter than everyone else….well, almost everyone. The Wonderlic test is used for college QB's. If you’ve never taken one, it’s a cognitive tests used to assess aptitude where you answer 50 questions in 12 minutes. Luck’s score was 37, RG3's was 24. For reference, Peyton Manning’s score was 28. While the Wonderlic isn’t the ultimate predictor of success, you can’t argue that Luck, similar to Manning, is an intelligent QB with extreme skill. Lastly, going to Stanford doesn’t hurt either….
3) The Colts know how to build around franchise QB's. While Bill Polian, a long time NFL exec and builder of the Jim Kelly Buffalo Bills and the Colts that Manning played for, is no longer around, don’t think his disciples in Indy haven’t learned how to build winning teams around franchise QB's. Like with Manning, the Colts will draft talent to complement Luck each and every year. They already started in the same draft by taking Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen as TE's, borrowing from the Patriots' model.
4) So he’s in a great situation, he's smart….so what? Well, let’s not forget talent trumps all. Luck’s talent is off the charts. He can read defenses already as a rookie (thanks in part to running a pro-style offense in college for three seasons), can make all the throws from the pocket, and he can run. While not the 1000-yard rusher Mike Vick is, Luck is athletic, similar again to John Elway. Luck’s leadership, while not something easily scored, is present. His teammates already follow the rookie because they know what a winner looks like and know he’ll make them better players.
Fantasy Football Week 10 RB Platoon Rankings
In our Week 10 RB rankings, we discuss and rank the RB platoons of C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Marcel Reese, Taiwan Jones, Mike Goodson, Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell.
Mike gives projected
stats and rankings within the platoon and Rich gives position rankings.
Be sure to check us out at www.outofrounds.com and on Twitter @outofrounds and our Facebook page as well.
Mike's Rankings:
Mike Goodson/ Taiwan Jones/ Marcel Reese, OAK
Run DMC is out and the Raiders' backfield just got very crowded. Picking one of the remaining three backs will be more an art than a science. So let's run through these three.
3) Goodson is also expected to be out with McFadden as high ankle sprains are being handed out in camp. Goodson is actually the backup, but he shouldn't see the field this week against the Ravens. So consider him a "sit".
2) Marcel Reese is coming off his career game at age 27. He's a bigger, bruising-type back and actually caught 8 passes for 98 yards to do his damage. The question is do you think Reece benefits from another outing by Carson Palmer? Doubt that. My projection is he doesn't top 40 combined yards and makes his way quickly back to the waiver wire.
1) Taiwan Jones is a fast, scatback-type runner, and not a between-the-tackles back. I actually think he could rush for a few more yards by hitting the edges. He should also benefit from a few dump-offs by Palmer. Palmer has endorsed Jones big-time this week. Jones is the back to own, but he's still not a #1 option. I do think he goes for 70 combined yards, 4 catches and 1 TD.
CJ Spiller/ Fred Jackson, BUF
Actually I like both of these players...just not playing on the same team. Maybe one gets moved this off-season. But back to Week 10 and their match up with New England. The Patriots aren't giving up tons of yardage to backs. Under 90 per game. Now here's my take on each.
2) Jackson isn't having a great season and probably still isn't 100%. His rushing average is under 4 yards per carry compared to Spiller averaging over 7 yards per rush. He's moved into the back up role. Jackson is more durable, in my opinion, being a slightly bigger back. He's versatile too. But he won't do much in this game: 25 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving and 0 TDs.
1) Spiller is lightning-quick and I think poses the biggest threat to the Patriots between he and Jackson. I expect the Pats to light the Bills up and force Fitzpatrick into throwing a lot. This will limit both backs, but the Patriots will allow underneath passes, and Spiller will benefit from that. He goes for 35 yards rushing, 50 yards receiving, and 1 TD.
Mikel LeShoure/ Joique Bell, DET
This platoon in Detroit has turned strange. LeShoure carries the ball in the first half, Bell in the second half....and they are on a pass first team? The Lions face the Vikings' defense which isn't too bad. I'm not high on this platoon as I think the Lions fall back on Stafford this week.
2) Bell has been the second half back, and I think that holds true this week too. The only difference is Detroit won't be up by 21 points so they'll be throwing to Megatron...remember him? Bell gets 8 attempts, 25 yards and 0 TDs.
1) LeShoure is the better of the two backs, can score on short yardage and can also break off some long runs. He's coming off a 3 TD game and set a Lions record for RB's rushing for three scores in the first half. I think they feature LeShoure over Bell by a 2 to 1 margin. But I don't see LeShoure carrying the ball more than 12 times. He turns those attempts into 60 yards and 1 TD.
Rich's Rankings:
7) Mike Goodson, OAK
This much I know about high ankle sprains . . . they take weeks for players to recover from. Goodson sustained one last week which is tragic in that the guy he's been behind all year, McFadden, got one earlier in the same game. This would've been Goodson's week to shine. But it's not now, so keep him on your bench. He's a "sit" this week.
6) Marcel Reese, OAK
Here are two facts about Reese: he has one rushing attempt this year and he's dealing with a hamstring issue this week. So what does that mean? Don't expect him to suddenly carry the ball 20 times for over a 100 yards. He'll get receptions out of the backfield (he's got 26 on the year) and he might even snag a TD as well. But temper your expectations and you'll be happy. Look for Reese as nothing more than a flex option this week against a still-tough Baltimore defense.
5) Fred Jackson, BUF
Jackson's a grinder. In all aspects of his life, he's proved this. And while these kinds of RB's are great for your fantasy team if they're "the guy", Jackson isn't as he splits time with Spiller. He'll get you some yardage with some receptions mixed in, but he won't bust out the 75-yard TD run that would put your team over this week. Look at Jackson as no more than a flex option against New England this week.
4) Joique Bell, DET
There two ways to look at being your team's second half guy: 1) you're only getting one half to show what you've got or 2) your team's going to play ultra-conservative not wanting to blow a big lead which means you'll rack up the rushing yards. Bell obviously is thinking more along the lines of #2. His one half of play netted him the #8 RB total of Week 9. As good as that sounds, don't count on that kind of production every week. In fact, against Minnesota in Week 10, consider him only a good flex option.
3) Mikel Leshoure, DET
It stands to reason that if I called Leshoure as over-hyped this week, then I wouldn't expect him to do much in Week 10. He won't get three TD's this week against a decent Vikings D and his yardage will be solid but not triple digits. This will be a negative rebound week for Leshoure. Look for him to only be a flex option just like his backfield mate.
2) C.J. Spiller, BUF
Even though Spiller had a better game statistically than his teammate Jackson, they both had the same opportunities: six carries and five catches for both. Spiller just did more with his chances. But don't assume that will happen every game. The main factor in Spiller's corner is that he's 6 years younger than Jackson (25 to Jackson's 31). Which means he's less likely to get injured and more likely to bust open some big plays especially in the second half of games. Look for Spiller to be a high-end #2 RB this week against the Pats.
1) Taiwan Jones, OAK
Now here are two facts about Taiwan Jones: he was the fastest player at the 2011 combine running a 4.33 40-yard dash and he has one carry this year just like Reese. The difference between the two is that Jones can take it to the house on any play. Carson Palmer has called him "electrifying". Jones won't need that many carries (about 15) to make a difference for your team. Look for him to finally get his chance to show he belongs in the NFL and run like a #1 RB.
Rankings:
Quarterback- A #1 QB is ranked as a top 12 player in terms of fantasy points at this position for the week, #2 QB is ranked 13 through 18 for the week in terms of fantasy points scored
Running Back: A #1 RB is ranked as a top 12 player in terms of fantasy points at this position for the week, #2 RB is ranked between 13-24 for the week in terms of fantasy points scored
Wide Receiver: A #1 WR is ranked as a top 20 player in terms of fantasy points at this position for the week, #2 WR is ranked between 21-30 for the week in terms of fantasy points scored, and a #3 WR between 31-40 for the week in terms of fantasy points scored.
Flex Position- This is a running back and wide receiver that ranks outside of their standard position but may be worth a start in deeper leagues that use a flex starter spot in an active line up
Week 10 Rankings, Which Matchups to Exploit, Which to Avoid
I’m not going to mince words here; some of the week 10 matchups have me wiping the drool from my face. Some big name studs face the leagues worst defense against their respective position so we shoul
d see some nice numbers from some of the leagues elite. Of course not all matchups can be rosy vs. the worst defenses in the league and some studs face the toughest defenses, which could very well hurt their week 10 output. Lets look at each position and see who should benefit and could fail to meet expectations.
QUARTERBACKS
Matchups to Exploit:
Matt Ryan faces off against the leagues worst passing defense in the Saints. They allow 311 yards a game and 16 touchdowns on the season. Ryan almost reached 350 yards last week vs. a tough Eagles defense though he didn’t have any touchdowns, that will change this week.
Tom Brady fresh off a bye has the hard task of facing the second worst pass defense in the Bills #sarcasm. They give up 18.5 points a game to QBs and have also allowed 16 touchdowns on the season. Hernandez’ status is in question for this game but it should not matter, Brady will feast this weekend.
Stafford is getting back on track the last two weeks throwing for 637 yards and 3 touchdowns. This week he faces the Vikings that appear a far cry from the stout defense we saw the first 6 weeks. The Vikes have allowed 14 touchdowns on the year and only have 4 interceptions. Look for Staff and his trio of wide outs to light it up in the Minnesota.
Roethlisberger gets the Chiefs generous defense that gives up 8.9 yards per attempt meaning there’s a good shot for Wallace to get deep again. Ben has 5 touchdowns over the last two weeks and he should be looking at another 2+ TD day vs. KC that allows 2.1 TDs a game to QBs.
My last column was about Eli Manning and how I’m not sure he turns things around but this week he faces off against the 21st ranked Bengals and I think this game will be high scoring. No team has been able to contain AJ Green this year so Manning should be playing to keep his team in the game. The Bengals allow 260 yards a game and only have 5 interceptions on the year. If Manning can’t exploit this matchup, I’m officially worried for the rest of his season.
Matchups to Avoid:
Matt Schaub leads this list as he squares off against the leagues best pass defense. Through the 2012 season the Bears have allowed 6 passing touchdowns and have 17 interceptions. They allow a paltry 6.3 yards per attempt which means lots of underneath dink and dunk vs. the cover 2.
Michael Vick gets the Cowboys that just held Eli Manning to 125 yards passing and zero touchdowns last week. FYI, the Giants receivers are much better than the Eagles. Dallas only allows 12.4 points per game to QBs, I expect Vicks bad season will continue.
Jay Cutler’s matchup could go either way so I might get burned for putting him here but I think this game will be low scoring. The Texans rank 9th vs. the pass allowing only 222 yards a game and a low 6.2 yards per attempt. Both teams prefer to run so this game should be won and lost on the ground, not through the air.
Below is the full line-up for week 10 matchups. The charts below read as follows: Defense Rank vs. Position (QB, RB, WR, TE) Team Name, Opponent, Team Studs, and Matchups to watch.
Defenses with a rank of 32 are the worst and giving up the most points to the position. Defenses with 1 are the best and giving up the fewest points to the position. I’ve mentioned it before but for you new readers, I’m not ranking Ryan Tannehill over Stafford, its just he has better matchup due to the defense he’s facing.
32 - Saints vs. Falcons ---> Ryan (++)
31 - Bills vs. Patriots ---> Brady (++)
30 - Titans vs. Dolphins ---> Tannehill
29 - Redskins -- BYE WEEK
28 - Vikings vs. Lions ---> Stafford (+)
27 - Patriots vs. Bills ---> Fitzpatrick
26 - Chiefs vs. Steelers ---> Roethlisberger (+)
25 - Buccaneers vs. Chargers ---> Rivers
24 - Browns -- BYE WEEK
23 - Raiders vs. Ravens ---> Flacco
22 - Dolphins vs. Titans ---> Locker
21 - Bengals vs. Giants ---> Eli (+)
20 - Colts vs. Jaguars ---> Gabbert
19 - Rams vs. 49ers ---> Smith
18 - Chargers vs. Buccaneers ---> Freeman
17 - Packers -- BYE WEEK
16 - Giants vs. Bengals ---> Dalton
15 - Jaguars vs. Colts ---> Luck
14 - Lions vs. Vikings ---> Ponder (-)
13 - Broncos vs. Panthers ---> Newton
12 - Eagles vs. Cowboys ---> Romo
11 - Panthers vs. Broncos ---> Manning
10 - Falcons vs. Saints ---> Brees
9 - Texans vs. Bears ---> Cutler
8 - Cardinals -- BYE WEEK
7 - Jets vs. Seahawks ---> Wilson
6 - Steelers vs. Chiefs ---> Quinn
5 - Cowboys vs. Eagles ---> Vick (-)
4 - Seahawks vs. Jets ---> Sanchez
3 - Ravens vs. Raiders ---> Palmer
2 - 49ers vs. Rams ---> Bradford
1 - Bears vs. Texans ---> Schaub
RUNNING BACKS
Matchups to Exploit:
Stevan Ridley gets the best RB matchup of the week facing the worst run defense in the league. Brandon Bolden was just suspended four games which thins the backfield a little. The Bills have allowed 13 touchdowns on the season and a healthy 5.3 yards per attempt. Ridley’s usage can be hard to predict but the Pats should exploit this matchup.
Michael Turner faces the Saints that give up the most yards to RBs, nearly 200 yards a game. Atlanta has every intention of keeping Brees and the highflying Saints offense off the field so they should run the ball to slow the game and keep their own defense well rested. I think both teams will move the ball in this matchup and if the Falcons are up the fourth quarter, Turner will be a hell of a clock killer. The only concern here is if Ryan has too much success through the air but I suspect there will be enough to go around.
Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas face off vs. the leagues 29th worst run defense and what do we always say? Get your players in vs. the Titans! Tennessee allows 179 yards a game and 24.5 points a game to RBs. The issue here will be deciding which back is going to succeed. Per ESPN’s player profile page: “The past three Titans opponents have all gained at least 140 rushing yards with their running backs, and in all three cases, the leading runner was a speed back (C.J. Spiller, Donald Brown and Matt Forte) similar to Bush in running style.” Look for Bush to have a big day.
Willis McGahee faces a Panthers defense that has only allowed six touchdowns on the season but gives up 165 yards a game for an average 21.3 points to RBs. Carolina has allowed a rushing touchdown in their past two games and with Manning moving the ball so effectively, I see a short score in store for McGahee.
This ones a gut call, but I see Frank Gore having a nice game at home vs. the Rams. St. Louis has only allowed 7 touchdowns to RBs through 8 games but I think San Fran excels at home and Gore has another productive day.
Matchups to Avoid:
There are a lot of top tier RBs facing tough matchups but I’m not betting against the likes of Richardson, Foster or Peterson despite their bad matchups. However…
Matt Forte facing the Texans should be tough sledding. I’m not saying to bench Forte, he’s too good and could break one at any point but don’t expect big numbers against the Texans that only allow 109 yards a game and 1 touchdown through 8 games to RBs.
Jamal Charles has another bad matchup this time vs. the Steelers on Monday night football. The game is at Heinz field and the Steelers only allow 91 yards a game to RBs. Almost more important than any of this is Charles usage lately. In the past two weeks Charles has 12 rush attempts and 5 the week prior totaling only 43 yards rushing. I’m benching Charles in one league, and that’s hard to do with a guy that has as much talent as he does.
Mikel Leshoure gets a middle of the road matchup vs. the Vikings but many people will be swayed by his three-touchdown day last week. Since 2010 the Lions pass more than any other team in ‘goal to go’ situations at 60 percent of the time. Last week Leshoure’s touchdowns came from 8, 7 and 1 yard(s) out. While I expect them to continue running from the 1, don’t let last weeks longer runs fool you, this is a passing team and Leshoure only had 70 yards rushing, if he doesn’t score, he’s going to disappoint as the yardage won’t make up for it.
32 - Bills vs. Patriots ---> Ridley (+)
31 - Saints vs. Falcons ---> Turner
30 - Jaguars vs. Colts ---> Ballard, Brown (+)
29 - Titans vs. Dolphins ---> Bush, Thomas
28 - Raiders vs. Ravens ---> Rice (+)
27 - Colts vs. Jaguars ---> Jennings (+)
26 - Ravens vs. Raiders ---> Reece
25 - Chiefs vs. Steelers ---> Redman
24 - Panthers vs. Broncos ---> McGahee
23 - Jets vs. Seahawks ---> Lynch
22 - Bengals vs. Giants ---> Bradshaw
21 - Browns -- BYE WEEK
20 - Falcons vs. Saints ---> Thomas, Ivory
19 - Rams vs. 49ers ---> Gore
18 - Buccaneers vs. Chargers ---> Mathews
17 - Cowboys vs. Eagles ---> McCoy
16 - Broncos vs. Panthers ---> JStew
15 - Vikings vs. Lions ---> Leshoure
14 - Chargers vs. Buccaneers ---> Martin
13 - Packers -- BYE WEEK
12 - Eagles vs. Cowboys ---> Jones
11 - Cardinals -- BYE WEEK
10 - Redskins -- BYE WEEK
9 - Giants vs. Bengals ---> BJGE (-)
8 - Steelers vs. Chiefs ---> Charles (-)
7 - Seahawks vs. Jets ---> Greene (-)
6 - Dolphins vs. Titans ---> CJ1k (-)
5 - Lions vs. Vikings ---> Peterson
4 - Texans vs. Bears ---> Forte
3 - Patriots vs. Bills ---> FJax, Spiller
2 - Bears vs. Texans ---> Foster
1 - 49ers vs. Rams ---> Jackson, Richardson
WIDE RECIEVERS
Matchups to Exploit:
Roddy and Julio should have a field day against the Saints defense. They allow WRs an average of 31.8 points a game and 14 touchdowns through 8 games. Roddy and Julio rank 11th and 12th in WR scoring for the year and both have solid yards per attempt in 10.6 for Roddy and 9.7 for Julio.
Welker and Lloyd should continue to do well vs. the Bills that allow 166 yards and 25.6 points a game to WRs. Welker is 7th on the season in targets while Lloyd is quietly 17th. Surprisingly Lloyd has a short 6.9 yards per attempt but the Pats were giving him shots downfield two weeks ago and off the bye look for him to get open deep at least once.
AJ Green has almost been uncoverable this year. He’s scored in every game except week 1 when he faced the Ravens. Green’s yardage numbers haven’t always been there but the Giants allow 189 yards a game. Green is the top scoring wide out averaging 15.4 points a game, he’ll get his.
Mike Wallace has turned it on the last three weeks and that should continue vs. the Chiefs Monday night. KC allows 22.7 points a game to WRs and an outrageous 16.9 yards per attempt. Over the last three weeks Wallace is 7th in targets with 29 and with Antonio Brown out, Ben will have to lean on his speedy wide out even more.
Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams get a nice matchup vs. the Chargers and should be able to excel. The Bucs have leaned heavily on Doug Martin, the ‘muscle hamster’, for two straight weeks and they could look to give him fewer caries after a crazy two game workload of 61 touches. The Bolts allow 23.2 points a game to WRs and both Jackson and Williams are inside the top 15 in scoring the last three weeks (Jackson 3rd, Williams 14th).
Matchups to Avoid:
Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin go up against the Cowboys that only give 157 yards a game to WRs. Dallas has only allowed four touchdowns through 8 games to wide outs. Over the last three weeks, Jackson is ranked 50th in targets and Maclin is 58th, they can’t score if they aren’t getting the ball and Vick is spending too much time on his back.
Steve Smith has a hard task ahead of him facing shut down corner Champ Bailey and the Broncos. Denver gives 151 yards a game and only 6 touchdowns through 8 games. Smith is 3rd in targets the last three weeks but he’s 36th in scoring over that span. Carolina should be playing catchup but I don’t think Smith see’s paydirt this week.
Dez Bryant faces an average Eagles defense that ranks 16th vs. wide receivers giving 159 yards a game but Dez is playing hurt. He’s dealing with a hip issue and had only 1 catch for four yards last week. Dallas has too many other weapons in Austin and Witten for Romo to throw interceptions to, look for Dez to be outside the top 20 in scoring.
Here’s a bonus one: Percy Harvin is doubtful as I write this column but I’m not playing him even if he’s active. His foot is sprained in three places and the Vikings have their bye next week. Even if active, he’ll see a small workload as the Vikings try to rest him through their bye.
32 - Saints vs. Falcons ---> White, Jones (++)
31 - Redskins -- BYE WEEK
30 - Buccaneers vs. Chargers ---> Floyd, Meachem
29 - Patriots vs. Bills ---> Johnson
28 - Browns -- BYE WEEK
27 - Dolphins vs. Titans ---> Britt, Washington
26 - Bills vs. Patriots ---> Welker, Llyod (+)
25 - Colts vs. Jaguars ---> Blackmon, Shorts
24 - Giants vs. Bengals ---> AJ Green, Hawkins (+)
23 - Packers -- BYE WEEK
22 - Titans vs. Dolphins ---> Hartline, Bess
21 - Chiefs vs. Steelers ---> Wallace, Brown (+)
20 - Chargers vs. Buccaneers ---> Jackson, Williams (+)
19 - Lions vs. Vikings ---> Harvin (INJ)
18 - Jaguars vs. Colts ---> Wayne, Avery
17 - Cardinals -- BYE WEEK
16 - Eagles vs. Cowboys ---> Bryant, Austin
15 - Raiders vs. Ravens ---> Smith, Boldin
14 - Bears vs. Texans ---> Johnson
13 - Bengals vs. Giants ---> Nicks, Cruz
12 - Rams vs. 49ers ---> Crabtree, Manningham
11 - Ravens vs. Raiders ---> Moore
10 - Texans vs. Bears ---> Marshall, Hester
9 - Broncos vs. Panthers ---> Smith, Lafell
8 - Vikings vs. Lions ---> Johnson, Young, Broyles
7 - Cowboys vs. Eagles ---> Jackson, Maclin (-)
6 - Falcons vs. Saints ---> Colston, Moore
5 - Steelers vs. Chiefs ---> Bowe (-)
4 - Seahawks vs. Jets ---> Kerley
3 - Panthers vs. Broncos ---> Thomas, Decker
2 - 49ers vs. Rams ---> Gibson, Givens
1 - Jets vs. Seahawks ---> Tate, Rice
TIGHT ENDS
Matchups to Exploit:
Jermaine Gresham faces off against the Giants that allow 68 yards and 7.4 points a game to TEs. Gresham has 9 receptions on 13 targets his last two games and eclipsed the century mark last week.
Kyle Rudolph should see increased action with Harvin doubtful Sunday. The Lions allow 49 yards a game to TEs and Rudolph is a huge target standing 6’ 6”. Some one has to step up in Harvin’s absence and Ponder has developed a rapport with Rudolph.
Matchup to Avoid:
Jared Cook appears to have a decent matchup by the numbers. The Dolphins allow 73 yards a game to TEs but Cook ranks 18th in receptions the last three weeks and 17th in targets. Miami is stingy as far as TE scoring, they have not allowed a TE to score a receiving touchdown through 8 games.
32 - Titans vs. Dolphins ---> Fasano
31 - Redskins -- BYE WEEK
30 - Broncos vs. Panthers ---> Olsen
29 - Jets vs. Seahawks ---> Miller
28 - Bengals vs. Giants ---> Bennett (+)
27 - Patriots vs. Bills ---> Chandler
26 - Bills vs. Patriots ---> Gronkowski, Hernandez (+)
25 - Rams vs. 49ers ---> Davis
24 - Lions vs. Vikings ---> Rudolph
23 - Vikings vs. Lions ---> Pettigrew
22 - Buccaneers vs. Chargers ---> Gates
21 - Texans vs. Bears ---> Davis
20 - Panthers vs. Broncos ---> Dreesen
19 - Raiders vs. Ravens ---> Pitta
18 - Dolphins vs. Titans ---> Cook
17 - Giants vs. Bengals ---> Gresham
16 - Ravens vs. Raiders ---> Myers (+)
15 - Seahawks vs. Jets ---> Keller
14 - Chiefs vs. Steelers ---> Miller
13 - Falcons vs. Saints ---> Graham
12 - Packers -- BYE WEEK
11 - Eagles vs. Cowboys ---> Witten
10 - Steelers vs. Chiefs ---> Moeaki
9 - Bears vs. Texans ---> Daniels
8 - Cowboys vs. Eagles ---> Celek
7 - Cardinals -- BYE WEEK
6 - 49ers vs. Rams ---> Kendricks
5 - Saints vs. Falcons ---> Gonzalez
4 - Chargers vs. Buccaneers ---> Clark
3 - Browns -- BYE WEEK
2 - Jaguars vs. Colts ---> Allen
1 - Colts vs. Jaguars ---> Lewis (-)
As always, find me on twitter @tmcdannell and if you like what you see in the content, help me out and give me a follow. Feel free to shoot me start/sit questions or any other fantasy questions, I’m always up for a good discussion and always answer my tweets. Good luck in week 10, the playoffs are right around the corner!
Will Jamaal Charles Burst or Bust?
Heading into the 2012 season there were question marks surrounding the elite running backs coming off of major knee injuries. These injuries forced an ADP most likely outside of the first round for bo
th Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles. If you drafted AP, congrats...go grab a beer, sit back, and relax because this article is not for you. Charles had more than a year to recover from his devastating injury in 2011 that left fantasy owners cringing about losing their stud first round pick. Being the explosive runner that Charles is left people scratching their heads wondering if he'd be able to comeback with the same skill set prior to his injury.
Fast forward to Week 3 of this season and all worry and doubt was out the window. Charles exploded for 233 yards/1 touchdown on 33 carries along with 55 yards on 6 catches. All the doubters were silenced and this left fantasy owners licking their chops at the fact that they had perceivably stolen first round talent in rounds 2 or 3.
Jump ahead this week...analysts tearing apart the Kansas City Chiefs, and not only doubting Charles' RB1 ability but the simple matter of him even being trusted as a starter at this point. Some are even questioning his spot start ability based on match-up because of his 5 carry/4 yard performance against OAK 2 weeks ago.
This leads us to wonder...can he be trusted? Unless you play in a 8 team or less league or with a group of individuals with the football iq of a box of rocks...Charles is vital to the success of your team. Fantasy Football is a game of week to week match-ups, and 30 to 40 point explosions paired with sub 10 point duds aren't what you're looking for out of a RB1 potential player. Consistency relieves stress in the fantasy world and eliminates the need to pull your hair out every week deciding who to start and sit. Jamaal Charles' 2012 season has been everything we hate in a top tier fantasy player so far.
Lets break down his value moving forward looking at all the factors surrounding Charles. First and foremost the most vague factor, his team. The Kansas City Chiefs have easily looked like the worst team in the NFL as of late. They have no identity as a team, they have an abysmal passing game, and the running game has been nearly given up on. If Romeo Crennel was writing this article he'd simply just tell you to flip a coin each week to decide whether or not to play Charles. The play calling has been suspect, and the usage of their best player has been mind boggling. Don't bother asking Romeo why Charles doesn't get more touches, because he isn't sure either. This may be the easiest factor to blame on Charles up and down season.
The Chiefs have not had the lead for 1 second in regulation of a game this season and that will deplete any chance of a ground and pound game plan, but it is easy to tell they have a much greater chance of scoring when the rock is in Jamaal Charles hands. We aren't talking about Shonn Greene here, Charles is as lethal of a back out of the backfield in the passing game just as much as he is taking hand offs. Why the coaching staff continues to bring Shaun Draughn in on 3rd downs is beyond me. Along with Peyton Hillis the KC backfield has become a RBBC. They can't move the football, and even if they do somehow get into the redone here comes the vulture Hillis.
Charles has only accumulated 29 carries over the last 3 weeks while averaging a measley 2.9 YPC. It would be one thing if he usage was holding him back, but he's not even making the best of the minimal touches he's receiving. His 2 rushing touchdowns show the lack of goal line production, and even worse they came in weeks 3 and 4. Charles strives between the 20's and needs his touches and yardage to be a relevant top tier RB. He's cleared a 100 yards only twice this year. Take away the game against NO and he is averaging a whopping 57 yards per game. The bulk of his production this season came when Hillis was injured, but luckily Peyton is due to miss a game or two from menstrual cramps soon. Stats don't lie, and Charles just isn't producing.
Strength of schedule comes heavily into play when talking about the value of inconsistent players morning forward. Not many backs have as easy of a schedule as Charles weeks 13-16. We all know those are championship weeks in fantasy football. With the likes of CAR, CLE, OAK, and IND we should be able to assume if you can make it to the playoffs Charles is a sure start. That is if you can survive that long in your league with your RB1/RB2 performing like a mid-range defense. It's easy to fall in love with a players schedule but weeks 13-16 are irrelevant if you fail to stack W's in the weeks leading up to. Not to mention the fact that KC will more than likely make most if not all of these teams look playoff bound.
The moment of truth has come. Can you afford to keep starting Charles and rely on his burst/bust production, or is it time to part and get what you can? Depending on the intelligence level of your league peers there still may be heavily perceived value in Charles. Why not dangle him on the trade block and see what you are capable of getting in return? I was personally able to trade Charles for TRich 2 weeks ago, thankfully. If you can get back a solid RB or a solid starter at a position you are weak in if you have RB depth, do it. Charles may still be capable of a 30-40 point game this season, but I'm not counting on it. The Kansas City Chiefs are hopeless and sadly so is the glimpses of talent they still have left on the team. All Charles owners were lucky enough to still have an active player after last weeks crushing blow to the head/neck. Now go ease your worry and find a consistent starter before you find yourself with your own head injury after banging it against a wall watching the Chiefs "offense" try and keep your fantasy hopes alive in the coming weeks.
Week 10 rankings
QB
1. M Ryan @NO
2. T.Brady vs. BUF
3. P.Manning @CAR
4. D.Brees vs. ATL
5. M.Stafford @MIN
6. A.Luck @JAC
7. B.Roethlisberger vs. KC
8. E.Manning @CIN
/>9. C.Palmer @BAL
10. C.Newton vs. DEN
11. J.Freeman vs. SD
12. T.Romo @PHI
13. R.Fitzpatrick @NE
14. M.Vick vs. DAL
15. P.Rivers vs. TB
16. J.Flacco vs. OAK
17. R.Tannehill vs. TEN
18. J.Locker @MIA
19. A.Dalton vs. NYG
20. A.Smith vs. STL
21. R.Wilson vs. NYJ
22. B.Gabbert vs. IND
23. J.Cutler vs. HOU
24. M.Schaub @CHI
25. C.Ponder vs. DET
26. M.Sanchez @SEA
27. S.Bradford vs. SF
28. M.Cassell @PIT
RB
1. A.Peterson vs. DET
2. M.Lynch vs. NYJ
3. R.Rice vs. OAK
4. S.Ridley vs. BUF
5. L.McCoy vs. DAL
6. A.Foster @CHI
7. D.Martin vs. SD
8. F.Gore vs. STL
9. W.McGahee @CAR
10. M.Forte vs. HOU
11. R.Matthews @TB
12. M.Turner vs. NO
13. C.Johnson @MIA
14. J.Charles @PIT
15. A.Bradshaw @CIN
16. C.J. Spiller @NE
17. R.Bush vs. TEN
18. R.Jennings vs. IND
19. V.Ballard @JAC
20. M.Leshoure vs. MIN
21. B.Green-Ellis vs. NYG
22. F.Jackson @NE
23. I.Redman vs. KC
24. S.Greene @SEA
25. P.Thomas vs. ATL
26. J.Stewart vs. DEN
27. S.Jackson @SF
28. D.Thomas vs. TEN
29. F.Jones @PHI
30. J.Bell @MIN
31. M.Reece vs. BAL
32. J.Rodgers @NO
33. S.Vereen vs. BUF
34. A.Brown @CIN
35. M.Ingram vs. ATL
36. R.Brown @TB
37. D.Williams vs. DEN
38. D.Richardson @SF
39. K.Hunter vs. STL
40. M.Bush vs. HOU
WR
1. J.Jones @NO
2. C.Johnson @MIN
3. A.J.Green vs. NYG
4. V.Cruz @CIN
5. R.White @NO
6. M.Wallace vs. KC
7. B.Marshall vs. HOU
8. W.Welker vs. BUF
9. E.Decker @CAR
10. V.Jackson vs. SD
11. R.Wayne @JAC
12. M.Colston vs. ATL
13. D.Thomas @CAR
14. M.Austin @PHI
15. S.Johnson @NE
16. D.Moore @BAL
17. A.Johnson @CHI
18. M.Williams vs. SD
19. B.Hartline @TEN
20. T.Smith vs. OAK
21. M.Floyd @TB
22. B.Lloyd vs. BUF
23. L.Moore vs. ATL
24. S.Smith vs. DEN
25. D.Bryant @PHI
26. D.Jackson vs. DAL
27. P.Harvin vs. DET
28. T.Young @MIN
29. A.Boldin vs. OAK
30. D.Bowe @PIT
31. N.Washington @ MIA
32. M.Crabtree vs. STL
33. H.Nicks @CIN
34. E.Sanders vs. KC
35. S.Rice vs. NYJ
36. D.Hixon @CIN
37. J.Maclin vs. DAL
38. D.Bess @TEN
39. D.Avery @JAC
40. C.Shorts vs. IND
41. J.Kerley @SEA
42. D.Jones @NE
43. D.Amendola @SF
44. K.Britt vs. MIA
45. G.Tate vs. NYJ
46. Ty. Hilton @JAC
47. D.Heyward-Bey @BAL
48. J.Blackmon @IND
49. R.Broyles @MIN
50. K.Wright @MIA
TE
1. R.Gronkowski vs. BUF
2. J.Graham vs. ATL
3. J.Witten @PHI
4. T.Gonzalez @NO
5. H.Miller vs. KC
6. A.Gates @TB
7. O.Daniels @CHI
8. A.Hernandez vs. BUF
9. J.Gresham vs. NYG
10. G.Olsen vs. DEN
11. V.Davis vs. STL
12. B.Myers vs. BAL
13. M.Bennet @CIN
14. B.Pettigrew @MIN
15. D.Keller @SEA
16. D.Allen @JAC
17. B.Celek vs. DAL
18. J.Dreessen @CAR
19. S.Chandler @NO
20. J.Cook @MIA
21. K.Rudolph vs. DET
K
1. S.Gostkowski vs. BUF
2. S.Suisham vs. KC
3. J.Tucker vs. OAK
4. D.Carpenter vs. TEN
5. M.Bryant vs. NO
6. L.Tynes @CIN
7. D.Akers vs. STL
8. M.Prater @CAR
9. J.Hanson vs. MIN
10. D.Bailey @PHI
11. S.Hauschka vs. NYJ
12. B.Walsh @DET
13. A.Vinatieri @JAC
14. N.Novak @TB
15. G.Hartley vs. ATL
DST
1. 49ers vs. STL
2. Steelers vs. KC
3. Seahawks vs. NYJ
4. Texans @CHI
5. Giants @CIN
6. Bears vs. HOU
7. Dolphins @TEN
8. Broncos @CAR
9. Buccaneers vs. SD
10. Patriots vs. BUF
11. Cowboys @PHI
12. Lions @MIN
13. Colts @JAC
14. Ravens vs. OAK
15. Eagles vs. DAL
16. Jets @SEA
Week 10 rankings
QB
1. M Ryan @NO
2. T.Brady vs. BUF
3. P.Manning @CAR
4. D.Brees vs. ATL
5. M.Stafford @MIN
6. A.Luck @JAC
7. B.Roethlisberger vs. KC
8. E.Manning
@CIN
9. C.Palmer @BAL
10. C.Newton vs. DEN
11. J.Freeman vs. SD
12. T.Romo @PHI
13. R.Fitzpatrick @NE
14. M.Vick vs. DAL
15. P.Rivers vs. TB
16. J.Flacco vs. OAK
17. R.Tannehill vs. TEN
18. J.Locker @MIA
19. A.Dalton vs. NYG
20. A.Smith vs. STL
21. R.Wilson vs. NYJ
22. B.Gabbert vs. IND
23. J.Cutler vs. HOU
24. M.Schaub @CHI
25. C.Ponder vs. DET
26. M.Sanchez @SEA
27. S.Bradford vs. SF
28. M.Cassell @PIT
RB
1. A.Peterson vs. DET
2. M.Lynch vs. NYJ
3. R.Rice vs. OAK
4. S.Ridley vs. BUF
5. L.McCoy vs. DAL
6. A.Foster @CHI
7. D.Martin vs. SD
8. F.Gore vs. STL
9. W.McGahee @CAR
10. M.Forte vs. HOU
11. R.Matthews @TB
12. M.Turner vs. NO
13. C.Johnson @MIA
14. J.Charles @PIT
15. A.Bradshaw @CIN
16. C.J. Spiller @NE
17. R.Bush vs. TEN
18. R.Jennings vs. IND
19. V.Ballard @JAC
20. M.Leshoure vs. MIN
21. B.Green-Ellis vs. NYG
22. F.Jackson @NE
23. I.Redman vs. KC
24. S.Greene @SEA
25. P.Thomas vs. ATL
26. J.Stewart vs. DEN
27. S.Jackson @SF
28. D.Thomas vs. TEN
29. F.Jones @PHI
30. J.Bell @MIN
31. M.Reece vs. BAL
32. J.Rodgers @NO
33. S.Vereen vs. BUF
34. A.Brown @CIN
35. M.Ingram vs. ATL
36. R.Brown @TB
37. D.Williams vs. DEN
38. D.Richardson @SF
39. K.Hunter vs. STL
40. M.Bush vs. HOU
WR
1. J.Jones @NO
2. C.Johnson @MIN
3. A.J.Green vs. NYG
4. V.Cruz @CIN
5. R.White @NO
6. M.Wallace vs. KC
7. B.Marshall vs. HOU
8. W.Welker vs. BUF
9. E.Decker @CAR
10. V.Jackson vs. SD
11. R.Wayne @JAC
12. M.Colston vs. ATL
13. D.Thomas @CAR
14. M.Austin @PHI
15. S.Johnson @NE
16. D.Moore @BAL
17. A.Johnson @CHI
18. M.Williams vs. SD
19. B.Hartline @TEN
20. T.Smith vs. OAK
21. M.Floyd @TB
22. B.Lloyd vs. BUF
23. L.Moore vs. ATL
24. S.Smith vs. DEN
25. D.Bryant @PHI
26. D.Jackson vs. DAL
27. P.Harvin vs. DET
28. T.Young @MIN
29. A.Boldin vs. OAK
30. D.Bowe @PIT
31. N.Washington @ MIA
32. M.Crabtree vs. STL
33. H.Nicks @CIN
34. E.Sanders vs. KC
35. S.Rice vs. NYJ
36. D.Hixon @CIN
37. J.Maclin vs. DAL
38. D.Bess @TEN
39. D.Avery @JAC
40. C.Shorts vs. IND
41. J.Kerley @SEA
42. D.Jones @NE
43. D.Amendola @SF
44. K.Britt vs. MIA
45. G.Tate vs. NYJ
46. Ty. Hilton @JAC
47. D.Heyward-Bey @BAL
48. J.Blackmon @IND
49. R.Broyles @MIN
50. K.Wright @MIA
TE
1. R.Gronkowski vs. BUF
2. J.Graham vs. ATL
3. J.Witten @PHI
4. T.Gonzalez @NO
5. H.Miller vs. KC
6. A.Gates @TB
7. O.Daniels @CHI
8. A.Hernandez vs. BUF
9. J.Gresham vs. NYG
10. G.Olsen vs. DEN
11. V.Davis vs. STL
12. B.Myers vs. BAL
13. M.Bennet @CIN
14. B.Pettigrew @MIN
15. D.Keller @SEA
16. D.Allen @JAC
17. B.Celek vs. DAL
18. J.Dreessen @CAR
19. S.Chandler @NO
20. J.Cook @MIA
21. K.Rudolph vs. DET
K
1. S.Gostgowski vs. BUF
2. S.Suisham vs. KC
3. J.Tucker vs. OAK
4. D.Carpenter vs. TEN
5. M.Bryant vs. NO
6. L.Tynes @CIN
7. D.Akers vs. STL
8. M.Prater @CAR
9. J.Hanson vs. MIN
10. D.Bailey @PHI
11. S.Hauschka vs. NYJ
12. B.Walsh @DET
13. A.Vinatieri @JAC
14. N.Novak @TB
15. G.Hartley vs. ATL
DST
1. 49ers vs. STL
2. Steelers vs. KC
3. Seahawks vs. NYJ
4. Texans @CHI
5. Giants @CIN
6. Bears vs. HOU
7. Dolphins @TEN
8. Broncos @CAR
9. Buccaneers vs. SD
10. Patriots vs. BUF
11. Cowboys @PHI
12. Lions @MIN
13. Colts @JAC
14. Ravens vs. OAK
15. Eagles vs. DAL
16. Jets @SEA
Week 10 DST/TE Options
Brandon Myers-I hate to go beat a dead horse here, but if this guy is available in your league, go get him. He had his breakthrough game last week with two touchdowns and should only continue to rise
up the rankings. He's now arguably Carson Palmer's number one target and is catching everything thrown his way. I predict he'll finish the season with top 5 TE numbers. PLAY/ADD
Pittsburgh DST-You could probably get 15-30 fantasy points weekly if all you did was plug in the team playing the Chiefs. The Steelers will force multiple turnovers from their stagnant offense this week and I think a pick 6 is a fair possibility. If KC cracks double digits, it would be a crowning achievement. PLAY
Vernon Davis-Davis has left owners scratching their heads lately, but now would be a great buy low opportunity. He should have a bounce back week against St. Louis this week and I like his remaining schedule. If the right deal is out there go make a play for Davis sooner than later.
Dallas DST-After that abismal performance from the Philly offensive line Monday night, I'm sure Demarcus Ware is probably licking his chops for a chance to sack Mike Vick. He should do that at least once, if not multiple times. The Eagles are not protecting the Football and although both teams are in desparation mode, I think Dallas will perform, get the win and force multiple turnovers. They're a good play this week if you need defsenive help.
Week 10 - RB Waiver Wire
Injuries and bye weeks are the deadliest combination in fantasy football, just look at one of my ESPN standard leagues for proof. I have MJD, Run DMC, DeMarco Murray, and Donald Brown on one team! T
hankfully though, there was this thing created called the waiver wire that can hopefully save me this week, and your team as well.
1. Vick Ballard/IND: After week 8 Ballard was dropped by %12.3 of ESPN leagues due to the supposed return of Donald Brown. Now available in %45.2 of leagues and on a short week, the Colts will rely heavily on Ballard to thrash the 25th ranked run defense in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ballard has averaged 10.00 points per game the past three weeks despite not scoring a rushing TD, look for him to break the goose egg this week in Jacksonville.
2. Rashad Jennings/JAC: MJD has already been ruled out for week 10 and his status is still uncertain moving forward after this Thursday's game against the Colts. He's still available in %18.6 of ESPN leagues, despite being the go-to-guy for the Jaguars for now. He's only got 1 TD since taking the starting job, but you'd have to think he'll find the end zone before MJD returns from his injury.
3. Jonathan Stewart/CAR: It wasn't made public, but DeAngelo Williams got demoted three weeks ago. Where has Stewart been since then? Well he was facing Dallas and Chicago before this past week's match-up with Washington. Despite DeAngelo scoring the lone RB TD on Sunday, don't expect Stewart to take a step back in production. Remember, he's the best pass-catching option out of the backfield and can explode at any given time when he touches the ball.
4. Jonathan Dwyer/PIT: Before missing Sunday's game against the Giants, Dwyer put up back-to-back 100+ yard efforts. Mendenhall will miss Monday's game against the Chiefs, and despite Redman putting up a strong effort last week Dwyer will be just as much in the mix versus a horrid Chiefs D. Early and large leads lead to a lot of running.
5. Daniel Thomas/MIA: Thomas has slowly started to work his way back into the eye's of the fantasy football world. After a disappointing rookie season, the sophomore season is starting to turn around despite running behind Reggie Bush. He may not get the carries that Bush has, but he's a legitimate threat near the goal-line. He's got 3 rushing TD's on the year, and he'll look to increase that number against a terrible Titans defense. I'd be very surprised if Thomas doesn't get at least 12 touches this Sunday with at least one score to his credit.
If you're desperate, Daryl Richardson is still available in a lot of leagues. I had him on a few lists prior to the week 9 bye for the Rams, and despite Jackson being "the man" in St. Louis, that role will be changing hands next season. Richardson will get more carries as he transitions into the #1 back for the Rams in 2013.
Good luck to everyone this week! If you'd like you can follow me on Twitter, @JasonSaulter and @SFinHB.
Week 10 - Five Waiver Wire Pickups You Need to Make and One You Need to Avoid
Week 10 was another big week for injuries and disappointments with Jordy Nelson getting hurt on his first target thus netting a big zero in scoring for the week. Nelson is off in week 10 so hopefully
he’ll be back when Green Bay returns to action in week 11.
Then there was the injury we were all waiting for, Darren McFadden. McFadden however has already had his bye and was diagnosed with the dreaded high ankle sprain Monday after an MRI. Mike Goodson who took over for McFadden was also injured Sunday and he too has been identified to have a high ankle sprain. So, who should you be targeting in the Oakland backfield?
So far the consensus is Marcel Reece (4% owned) especially in PPR leagues. Reece is a big guy, 6’ 1” 255lbs so I can’t see him having a feature role, he’s just not shifty or fast enough out of the backfield but he is the preferred 3rd down back so he’s in line to get plenty of check downs. Taiwan Jones has the more prototypical running back size of 6’ 197lbs but is completely unproven in the pros.
I’m not going out of my way to grab either guy but if I have to choose one, it would be Reece. Oakland was already struggling to run the ball this season, McFadden had a 3.3 YPA average and Jones is not as talented as DMC so you have to assume the team average will drop even further. Add the fact that Oakland is a passing team and Reece is the guy you want. He ended Sunday with 8 grabs for 95 yards, that’s 17.5 points in a PPR league.
Let’s get on to the rest of the list, all players below are owned in 51% or less of yahoo leagues except the first guy Sidney Rice. I am in 6 very competitive leagues and he’s still available in 2 so I’m hoping he’s available in yours hence the addition to this week’s list.
Sidney Rice WR Seattle (72% owned) – Rice said this past week he felt healthier than he had in a long time and it’s showing in his play. He’s 17th in WR scoring over the last 5 weeks. He has scored in 3 of his last 4 weeks; the only miss came against a stout 49ers defense. In the other three games he had at least 4 receptions and eclipsed 50 yards receiving. Russell Wilson has developed a rapport with Rice which should continue to benefit fantasy owners down the stretch. He’s still a mid-level WR3 but with several WR’s out this week (Nelson Cobb, James Jones, Antonio Brown, Fitzgerald, Roberts) he’s worth a grab.
Brandon Myers TE Oakland (22% owned) – Myers has been the model of consistency this year then he broke out for 2 touchdowns this past Sunday vs. the Buccaneers. Myers is 6th in scoring among tight ends over the last 5 weeks and 2nd on the team in targets for the season with 50. By comparison, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin & Malcolm Floyd all have 50 or fewer receptions on the year. Myers has 18 receptions over the past 3 weeks, is in a pass first offense and is clearly Carson Palmers security blanket. Those of you that lose Finley or have been struggling with Chandler, Pitta or Bennett should snag Myers.
Joique Bell RB Detroit (19% owned) – Joique Bell’s value has been a bit of an enigma. The starter in Detroit seems clear in Mikel Leshoure but you can’t deny how much Bell has seen the ball recently. Two weeks ago Leshoure was essentially pulled for, “non-injury reasons”, in the fourth quarter and bell mustered 25 yards rushing along with 4 receptions for 33 yards. Last week vs. the Jaguars the Lions were comfortably ahead in the second half and Leshoure only saw 3 carries while Bell saw 13 for 73 yards. He added 36 receiving yards on 3 receptions and got a rushing touchdown. Bell has more value in PPR leagues as his use may be tied to the Lions being ahead but I’m all about a guy who’s on a potent offense that throws a lot and is in line for 5-10 carries along with 3-5 receptions a game.
Carson Palmer QB Oakland (50% owned) – So there’s a bit of a trend here, as you can tell I clearly think the Raiders are headed to the Super Bowl with all these ‘must-adds’, not so. However, due to injuries and Oakland’s style of play, Palmer had 61 pass attempts Sunday, I think Carson is another solid add. This is going to shock you but Palmer is actually 9th in QB scoring for the season. Over the past 3 weeks he’s FIRST in QB scoring averaging 2 points more per game than Rodgers and 7.5 more than RGIII. Palmer has eclipsed 297 yards passing five of eight games this season and is averaging 294 yards a game and a little over one and half touchdowns a game. Denarius Moore has been a great weapon deep and DHB seems to be back to himself after that ugly early season concussion. Palmer has a nice end of the season schedule facing four teams that rank in the bottom 12 against defending the quarterback in the Saints, Bengals, Browns and Chiefs.
Lastly, the one add that is tops on most peoples list but I think is purely Fools Gold…
Isaac Redman RB Pittsburgh (51% owned) – Redman stepped up this past Sunday and had a great game putting up 147 yards including a rushing touchdown. What’s not to like about that performance? Nothing, it was fantastic and owners that added him last week and used him are happy as hell. However, this performance came with Dwyer and Mendenhall both inactive coming into the game. You knew Redman was going to get the lion’s share of the carries and he delivered. That’s the problem going forward. There are already reports out of Steel city that Dwyer could be ready for this week’s game and it just happens to be a Monday night game. While I don’t think Mendenhall makes it back in time, if Dwyer’s healthy, he’s going to cut into Redman’s touches in a big way. I want no part of this situation given the late game and the fact there are clearly 3 players vying for time. Let someone else spend his or her FAAB dollars on Mr. Redman, then watch them not play him Monday night as well.
Best of luck in your pickups for week 10. Find me on twitter @tmcdannell and give me a follow. Shoot me some fantasy football questions anytime, I’m always up for a good discussion and answer all my mentions.
Marry, Cheat, Dump Week 9
In this weekly column I’ll discuss a few players that I would marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), cheat (players that I would start because of their recent production but feel dir
ty in doing so) and dump (people I would trade away or drop).
QBs (Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Josh Freeman)
Marry – Andrew Luck
The Colts running game has been inept to say the least. Their two leading RBs Vick Ballard and Donald Brown have combined for 585 yards on 151 carries this year. That’s a very pedestrian 3.8 YPC. Luck is on pace for 672 pass attempts and over 4,800 yards! He is on pace for 20 TDs which is only average for an NFL QB, but those yardage totals are sure to keep his numbers very consistent from game-to-game. Oh yeah, and did I mention he runs a lot better than you think? He has 148 yards and 3 rushing TDs on the year with a great 5.5 YPC!
Cheat – Josh Freeman
It’s not hard to argue that Freeman is on one of the hottest streaks of any QB in the NFL right now. In his last 4 games he’s amassed 1,257 yards, 11 TDs and only 1 interception! Over that span he’s averaging 23 fantasy points per game! That being said, it’s obviously not going to last. In those 4 games he played the Chiefs (27th against opposing QBs), the Saints (32nd), the Raiders (24th) and the Vikings (28th). He has one more good matchup left against the Chargers (23rd) but then faces the 4 straight weeks of a pass defense ranked 13th or better (Panthers 11th, Falcons 9th, Broncos 13th, and the Eagles 12th). Ride out the hot streak one more week then get out.
Dump – Eli Manning
When you drafted him, you were expecting another 4,800+ yard 30 TD season like he had last year. In the 6 full seasons he played leading up to his phenomenal season last year he averaged just 3,600 yards, 25 TDs and 17 INTs. This year, he is on pace for a 4,300 yard, 21 TD and 16 INT season. Looks a lot like his averages from his previous years, huh? Last year was definitely a great year for him but he’s not Drew Brees, he’s not Aaron Rodgers, he’s not Tom Brady. You couldn’t honestly expect another year like last year. You are getting his previous year’s production but over paid for it because of what he did last year. It’s time to break it off with him, only this time Eli, it is you…not me. For more info on Manning, read my fellow PigskinBoss.com writer, Todd McDannell’s column (http://bitly.com/Uc7Oyk) and follow him on Twitter (@tmcdannell).
RBs (Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles)
Marry – Jamaal Charles
Wait…what? You mean dump…right? Nope, I’m sticking with him. He has proven in the past that he is a top 5 RB when healthy. For much of this year, he’s been a top 3 RB in terms of fantasy points. The ups and downs are expected with Charles. They weren’t some big secret; they were there when you drafted him. He is still averaging 4.8 YPC and getting 20 touches a game. He’s actually getting more touches this year (20 per game) than he did during his amazing 2010 season (18.5 per game). He has one of the easiest schedules for a RB from here on out. He is a boom or bust play but sooner rather than later Romeo Crennel is going to realize that in order for them to win games, Charles must remain involved in the offense. If not, he is surely out after this year.
Cheat – Chris Johnson
CJ2K is another boom or bust player. Lately he’s been all boom! Over the last 4 games he has 526 yards rushing, 3 TDs and an average of 17 fantasy points per game! Problem is 2 of the 4 defenses he’s faced have been subpar run defenses (I’m looking at you Buffalo and Indianapolis). And the Bears stat line would have been 15 carries for 61 yards and 0 TDs had it not been for a late 80 yard garbage time TD run. He has another tough matchup this week against a Dolphins run defense that has not allowed more than 80 yards rushing to any single RB this year and is 6th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.
Dump – Matt Forte
Welcome to Marry, Cheat, Dump boom/bust edition! Truth be told, I’ve never bought into Matt Forte as a 1st round fantasy RB. He does get a lot of yards but always gets his TDs vultured. But you like Jamaal Charles? Aren’t they the same player in similar situations? They are and they aren’t. While Charles is also solely dependent on yards and gets his TDs vultured, his touches are actually moving in an upward trend, Forte’s are going down. Last year Forte averaged almost 22 touches per game, this year…just 18. The Bears are obviously moving more towards a passing offense as Jay Cutler has reunited with Brandon Marshall for some wonderful things…all at the expensive of Matt Forte’s production. While up big in this past weekend’s game against Tennessee, Cutler continued to throw the ball to Marshall, not run the clock out with Forte. Forte still finished with a big game, but it’s time to sell him now before his tough schedule against some great run defenses (Houston, San Francisco, Minnesota X 2, and Seattle).
WRs (Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Dwayne Bowe)
Marry – Eric Decker
While you may think Decker is more suited for the Cheat side of this column, he’s been quietly been producing all year. While he has a TD in each of the last 5 games and a total of 7 during those 5 games, he has also had a TD or 100+ yards in 6 of 8 games this year. He is the most targeted receiver on the Broncos and has more Red Zone targets (15) then all other Broncos WRs combined (11)! While many may argue that they want Demaryius Thomas over Decker, give me Decker!
Cheat – Randall Cobb
If you read my article last week, you read about how Randall Cobb is putting up eerily similar numbers to Victor Cruz last year (http://bitly.com/W3pBcf). Randall Cobb has been phenomenal while Greg Jennings has been out! In the last 5 games he has 386 total yards and 6 TDs! Over these 5 games he’s averaging 14 fantasy points per game. While the last couple weeks have seen his yards drop off he has been more than making up for it with the TDs. I’d continue to start Cobb until we see the TDs go away, but the decreasing yards does have me concerned.
Dump – Dwayne Bowe
I’ll admit, I was big on Bowe coming into the year. He is almost always a lock for 1,100 yards and 7-9 TDs. I’ll take that all day long in the 5-6 round of most drafts. This year, the king of garbage started off strong with a couple of big games, but with the issues at QB for the Chiefs, things do not look good. Did you know Bowe has only scored a TD in 3 out of his last 19 games! Yikes! He’s still getting the targets and is still getting ok yards, but it’s time to look for another WR before the Brady Quinn experiment comes back. Sell him while you still can!
Thanks for reading and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @MarcusKatkin and send me your start/sit and trade questions!
Eli Manning, Should You Be Worried
Eli Manning had another bad performance this Sunday, one that has to have his owners inching very close to the panic button. Eli only managed 3 fantasy points throwing for 125 yards, no touchdowns an
d one interception. This marks the third time this season Eli was held below 200 yards passing and two weeks in a row without a touchdown. To make matters worse Eli has had one interception in each of the past two weeks. If you’re in a league that doesn’t penalize for interceptions, lucky you, for the rest of us it means Eli has been held below 7 fantasy points two weeks in a row.
During the draft Eli was not a sexy name like Matt Ryan or Cam Newton but he was supposed to be a lock for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Eli has had some challenges this year with Nicks missing three games and being limited in two others but overall the weapons are the same as last year and I’d argue Bennett is an upgrade over Ballard at tight end. Lets compare Eli’s stats through the first nine games of last year vs. the first nine games of this year.
2011 – 2,688 yards, 17 touchdowns and 8 interceptions
2012 – 2,426 yards, 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions
The yardage totals aren’t off that much from last year but the big drop off is the five fewer touchdowns. Last year Eli had 5 games for the whole season where he totaled less than 2 touchdowns. Through nine games in 2012, Eli already has 6 of these games. One knock on Victor Cruz in the off season was how many of his touchdowns (five), came on blown coverages or short passes that he took to the house. Perhaps the lack of this repeating in the 2012 season is adding to Eli’s woes.
So, all this begs a bigger question, based on the first nine weeks, where is Eli projected to finish and how does it compare to last season, lets take a look:
2011 – 4,780 yards, 30 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
2012 – 4,300 yards, 21 touchdowns, 16 interceptions
Ultimately Eli ended the 2011 regular season almost spot on to the stats above adding about 150 yards receiving and 1 less touchdown but the projection was very accurate. If projections hold steady this season, Eli’s in for 8 fewer touchdowns and almost 600 fewer passing yards than his 2011 performance. That’s roughly two and half games worth of production.
Eli does have his bye coming in week 11 so perhaps he and the Giants will turn things around but his schedule says different. Manning plays four of his remaining seven games on the road. Adding to the challenge is the fact that four of his next seven games are against top 15 pass defenses, three in the top 12. He does have two sweetheart matchups against the Redskins and Saints but they could be too little too late for fantasy owners.
As I said, Eli has the same elite weapons as last year so the chance is there for him to turn things around but I’m making other plans. You’d be surprised how many teams still have RGIII and a top tier QB or Roethlisberger and a top five signal caller. Target one of these owners especially RGIII with Washington’s bye coming in week 10, perhaps the owner will need help at another position where you are deep and can afford the trade.
Best of Luck in turning your season around, give me a follow on twitter @tmcdannell and hit me up with any fantasy football questions, I’m always open for a good discussion.
AFC Ouick Outs & Team Mad Men- I need YOU for help!
Wherever and however you are view this today thank you for making PigSkin Boss part of your Sunday. Let’s hit the AFC South quickly and then we will get to the new Mad Men team on yahoo sports. From
now on I will stream the AFC South’s top tier which basically includes Arian Foster, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson and my man crush Andrew Luck. Ok the last part was a joke but man is he good. If I liken myself to Colin Cowherd than Luck is my Brady, those who watch or listen to The Herd know about Colin’s man crush.
Quick Outs Start/Sit:
1. Sit- Chris Johnson- if you can the Bears rank number 1 against the run. Only expect flex scoring of 7 points.
2. Start- Cecil Shorts- If he is on the wire, why don’t you have him? Mike Thomas is gone. Blackmon never showed up. And Robinson is coming back. All signs point to this guy getting the rock. Playing Detroit 7th against the pass 16th against the run but they haven’t looked as well as the ranks suggest.
3. Sit-Brown/Ballard- A timeshare and Miami plays good defense ranked 2nd against the run (Take that Hard Knocks hatters), but 25th against the pass ( ? ). Upside is on Ballard if you have to play one of them.
4. Start-Rashad Jennings- Lions are 16th against the run and Gabbert will dump the ball to Jennings on passing downs. Makes him a solid flex play this week.
On to team Mad Men, you can view my team from my boss page.
I’ll note this week’s additions:
• Isaac Redman- Gets the start this week and I needed a #2 RB option.
• Cecil Shorts- Snagged this gem for the flex play shoring up the spot.
• Dwayne Allen- Vernon Davis is on the bye and Coby Fleener will be out a few weeks. Allen was second to Wayne in targets last week and I like the match up against the Dolphins.
• Denver Defense- Playing the Bengals, I like the upside for the Broncos.
• Justin Tucker Baltimore Kicker- At Cleveland and I am counting the Browns play hard making the Ravens kick field goals.
The team is 2-6, but the good news is four teams are 3-5 making a playoff spot possible. Also four other teams are 4-4 which means if Mad Men can get rolling we can climb quickly. I will leave you with this note on a possible trade I am proposing it will also be on the polls at PigSkin Boss.
Percy Harvin for Fred Jackson and Eric Decker or Miles Austin
Thank you for making this part of your Sunday! You can always hear more from me on twitter @IntoTheGray. Visit the PigSkin Boss facebook page and like us. I hope all of you win this week, unless you are playing me.
brown and ballard
Colts RB, Donald Brown, will be the backup for RB, Vick Ballard, for at least week 9 if not the rest of the season.
Brown has been injured for the ast 3 weeks and Ballard has done a decent
job in his place as starter. Also, brown is questionable to play this week because of an injured knee. The Colts are all pass now. they are having trouble with Brown as the RB.
Finally, Brown went out of the game with the same injury as he had the first time so he is more injury prone than Ballard. Look for Ballard to start more games in the future because there is a great chance that he might start all the rest of the season instead of Brown. and Brown will be RB2.
High Fives and Head Slaps--Week 9
Each week, I will be finding one player not expected to be in the top-5 at these fantasy positions: QB, RB, WR, TE, D/ST, that will put up top-5 numbers. I’ll also list one player at each position th
at is ranked in the top-5, but will put up numbers outside of the weekly top-5. I use www.fantasypros.com’s consensus weekly rankings. These rankings are a very valuable tool, and I highly recommend using them. Here are Week 9’s HIGH-FIVES and HEAD SLAPS:
HIGH FIVES:
Quarterback--Eli Manning (Giants vs. Steelers). Ranked as the #10 consensus QB, look for an inspired effort from the Giants, coupled with the Steelers shaky road defense on a day when they’ll travel and play just hours later. Eli cracks the top-5.
Running Back--Doug Martin (Buccaneers at Raiders). Martin put up huge numbers last week, and I see him finishing higher than his current #9 rank. Against a Raiders defense ranked #18 in the league, expect another 100-yard rushing day, a TD (or two) and 50+ receiving yards. Pencil him in to the top-5.
Wide Receiver--Hakeem Nicks (Giants vs. Steelers). See Manning, Eli (above). Ranked #22 in WR rankings this week, I see BOTH Cruz and Nicks sharing a spot in the top-5. A bold prediction, to be sure.
Tight End--Greg Olsen (Panthers at Redskins). The Redskins defense is bad. The Panthers offense has been bad. Last year, Cam Newton started the year relying heavily on the TE position and Steve Smith. Expect him to revert back to what was successful, and hit Olsen against this Swiss cheese defense. Ranked #7, look for not one, but TWO TDs from Olsen, propelling him to a top-3 ranking after it’s all said and done.
Defense/Special Teams--Denver Broncos (at Bengals). As mentioned above, the Broncos DST is playing better of late, and if they can limit A.J. Green’s production, the Bengals will have a long day ahead. Look for the #12 ranked Broncos to make their way into the top-5.
HEAD SLAPS:
Quarterback--Matthew Stafford (Lions at Jaguars). Although I feel this will be the week that Calvin Johnson gets on the proverbial schneid, I don’t see Stafford getting enough fantasy points to be considered a top-5 QB. He is ranked #5, and I see him sliding down to the #9 to #11 range, making him a low-end QB1.
Running Back--Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks vs. Vikings). In a very low-scoring, tight defensive-led game, I don’t see anyone in the Vikings/Seahawks game entering the top-5. Since Lynch is listed as the #5 consensus RB, I see him being the one sliding out of the top-5. Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Forte should all be safe bets.
Wide Receiver--A.J. Green (Bengals vs Broncos). The Broncos defense held the Saints to 2 TDs last week. Andy Dalton is no Drew Brees, and his favorite target is Green. If they Broncos could handle all of the Saints offensive options last week, they can certainly focus on Green in this match-up, and keep him out of the top #5. He is ranked #3 this week--too high.
Tight End--Tony Gonzalez (Falcons vs. Cowboys). Although I see a solid game from Gonzo, his #2 TE ranking this week is too high. Expect him to fall out of the top-5. Don’t bench him, though.
Defense/Special Teams--Green Bay Packers (vs. Cardinals). No, I don’t expect the Cards to win the game. I don’t expect it to be close, but garbage time passing yardage and some late meaningless scores could put the Packers out of the top-5, down from their #2 ranking.
--Ryan Dickey (@ffbninja)
Cecil Shorts
Jaguars WR, Cecil Shorts will remain the tean's starting WR1 even though WR, Laurent Robinson is ready to play.
Shorts is playing so well that the Jags can't take him off the field. Over t
he last 2 weeks, the second-year man out of Mount Union has totaled 12 catches for 195 yards and a touchdown. Shorts is a legit playmaker on a team that desperatly needs one and is a legit WR4 with an upside in fantasy cycles. Robinson or WR3, Justin Blackman will get some reps in his spot now that Mike Thomas has gome.
Week 9 rankings (updated on Friday)
QB
1. P.Manning @CIN
2. R.Griffin III vs. CAR
3. A.Rodgers vs. ARI
4. M.Stafford @JAC
5. D.Brees vs. PHI
6. M.Vick vs. NO
7. C.Newton @WAS
8. A
.Luck vs. MIA
9. B.Roethlisberger @NYG
10. E.Manning vs. PIT
11. T.Romo @ATL
12. M.Ryan vs. DAL
13. J.Freeman @OAK
14. C.Palmer vs. TB
15. M.Schaub vs. BUF
16. J.Cutler @TEN
17. A.Dalton vs. DEN
18. B.Weeden vs. BAL
19. R.Wilson vs. MIN
20. R.Fitzpatrick vs. HOU
21. J.Flacco @CLE
RB
1. A.Foster vs. BUF
2. L.McCoy vs. NO
3. R.Rice @CLE
4. A.Peterson @SEA
5. T.Richardson vs. BAL
6. M.Forte @TEN
7. D.Martin vs. OAK
8. M.Lynch vs. MIN
9. A.Morris vs. CAR
10. R.Bush @IND
11. W.McGahee @CIN
12. D.McFadden vs. TB
13. J.Stewart @WAS
14. M.Turner vs. DAL
15. M.LeShoure @JAC
16. A.Bradshaw vs. PIT
17. R.Jennings vs. DET
18. P.Thomas vs. PHI
19. B.Green-Ellis vs. DEN
20. F.Jackson @HOU
21. C.Johnson vs. CHI
22. D.Thomas @IND
23. I.Redman @NYG
24. L. Stephens-Howling @GB
25. D.Brown vs. MIA
26. J.Bell @JAC
27. F.Jones @ATL
28. C.J. Spiller @HOU
29. A.Green vs. ARI
30. J.Rodgers vs. DAL
31. V.Ballard @MIA
33. M.Bush @TEN
33. A.Brown vs. PIT
34. J.Forsett vs. BUF
35. R.Hillman @CIN
36. L.Blount @OAK
37. M.Ingram vs .PHI
38. J.Starks vs. ARI
39. C.Rainey @NYG
40. M.Goodson vs. TB
WR
1. B.Marshall @TEN
2. R.Wayne vs. MIA
3. A.J. Green vs. DEN
4. V.Cruz vs. PIT
5. C.Johnson @JAC
6. D.Thomas @CIN
7. P.Harvin @SEA
8. J.Jones vs. DAL
9. M.Wallace @NYG
10. M.Colston vs. PHI
11. R.White vs. DAL
12. A.Johnson vs. BUF
13. E.Decker @CIN
14. S.Smith @WAS
15. D.Moore vs. TB
16. V.Jackson @OAK
17. R.Cobb vs. ARI
18. L.Fitzgerald @GB
19. J.Maclin @NO
20. J.Nelson vs. ARI
21. H.Nicks vs. PIT
22. M.Austin @ATL
23. D.Jackson @NO
24. D.Bryant @ATL
25. L.Moore vs. PHI
26. A.Brown @NYG
27. M.Williams @OAK
28. S.Johnson @HOU
29. .Young @JAC
30. S.Rice vs. MIN
31. T.Smith vs. CLE
32. .Jones vs. ARI
33. J.Gordon @BAL
34. C.Shorts vs. DET
35. D.Heyward-Bey vs. TB
36. A.Boldin vs. CLE
37. B.Hartline @IND
38. S.Moss vs. CAR
39. A.Roberts @GB
40. D.Bess @IND
41. D.Avery vs. MIA
42. K.Britt vs. CHI
43. R.Broyles @JAC
44. J.Blackmon vs. DET
45. G.Little @BAL
46. N.Washington vs. CHI
47. D.Hester @TEN
48. L.Hankerson vs. CAR
49. D.Henderson vs. PHI
50. K.Wright vs. CHI
TE
1. J.Witten vs. ATL
2. T.Gonzalez @DAL
3. J.Graham vs. PHI
4. H.Miller @NYG
5. O.Daniels vs. BUF
6. G.Olsen @WAS
7. B.Celek @NO
8. B.Pettigrew @JAC
9. M.Bennet vs. PIT
10. J.Gresham vs. DEN
11. B.Mayers vs. TB
12. D.Clark @OAK
13. J.Finley vs. ARI
14. K.Rudolph @SEA
15. J.Dreessen @CIN
16. S.Chandler @HOU
D/St
1. Green Bay vs. ARI
2. Chicago @TEN
3. Houston vs. BUF
4. Seattle vs. MIN
5. Detroit @JAC
6. Denver @CIN
7. Atlanta vs. DAL
8. Tampa Bay @OAK
9. Miami vs. IND
10. Minnesota @SEA
11. NY Giants vs. PIT
12. Dallas @ATL
13. Baltimore @CLE
14. Tennesee vs. CHI
15. Indianapolis vs. MIA
16. Pittsburgh @NYG
Kickers
1. G.Hartley vs. PHI
2. M.Crosby vs. ARI
3. S.Graham vs. BUF
4. M.Prater @CIN
5. R.Gould @TEN
6. J.Hanson @JAC
7. A.Henery @NO
8. L.Tynes vs. PIT
9. C.Barth vs. OAK
10. M.Bryant vs. DAL
11. J.Tucker @CLE
12. K.Forbath vs. CAR
13. P.Dawson vs. BAL
14. S.Suisham @NYG
15. S.Janikovski vs. TB
16. D.Bailey @ATL
Week 9 rankings (updated on Friday)
QB
1. P.Manning @CIN
2. R.Griffin III vs. CAR
3. A.Rodgers vs. ARI
4. M.Stafford @JAC
5. D.Brees vs. PHI
6. M.Vick vs. NO
7. C.Newton @WAS
8. A
.Luck vs. MIA
9. B.Roethlisberger @NYG
10. E.Manning vs. PIT
11. T.Romo @ATL
12. M.Ryan vs. DAL
13. J.Freeman @OAK
14. C.Palmer vs. TB
15. M.Schaub vs. BUF
16. J.Cutler @TEN
17. A.Dalton vs. DEN
18. B.Weeden vs. BAL
19. R.Wilson vs. MIN
20. R.Fitzpatrick vs. HOU
21. J.Flacco @CLE
RB
1. A.Foster vs. BUF
2. L.McCoy vs. NO
3. R.Rice @CLE
4. A.Peterson @SEA
5. T.Richardson vs. BAL
6. M.Forte @TEN
7. D.Martin vs. OAK
8. M.Lynch vs. MIN
9. A.Morris vs. CAR
10. R.Bush @IND
11. W.McGahee @CIN
12. D.McFadden vs. TB
13. J.Stewart @WAS
14. M.Turner vs. DAL
15. M.LeShoure @JAC
16. A.Bradshaw vs. PIT
17. R.Jennings vs. DET
18. P.Thomas vs. PHI
19. B.Green-Ellis vs. DEN
20. F.Jackson @HOU
21. C.Johnson vs. CHI
22. D.Thomas @IND
23. I.Redman @NYG
24. L. Stephens-Howling @GB
25. D.Brown vs. MIA
26. J.Bell @JAC
27. F.Jones @ATL
28. C.J. Spiller @HOU
29. A.Green vs. ARI
30. J.Rodgers vs. DAL
31. V.Ballard @MIA
33. M.Bush @TEN
33. A.Brown vs. PIT
34. J.Forsett vs. BUF
35. R.Hillman @CIN
36. L.Blount @OAK
37. M.Ingram vs .PHI
38. J.Starks vs. ARI
39. C.Rainey @NYG
40. M.Goodson vs. TB
WR
1. B.Marshall @TEN
2. R.Wayne vs. MIA
3. A.J. Green vs. DEN
4. V.Cruz vs. PIT
5. C.Johnson @JAC
6. D.Thomas @CIN
7. P.Harvin @SEA
8. J.Jones vs. DAL
9. M.Wallace @NYG
10. M.Colston vs. PHI
11. R.White vs. DAL
12. A.Johnson vs. BUF
13. E.Decker @CIN
14. S.Smith @WAS
15. D.Moore vs. TB
16. V.Jackson @OAK
17. R.Cobb vs. ARI
18. L.Fitzgerald @GB
19. J.Maclin @NO
20. J.Nelson vs. ARI
21. H.Nicks vs. PIT
22. M.Austin @ATL
23. D.Jackson @NO
24. D.Bryant @ATL
25. L.Moore vs. PHI
26. A.Brown @NYG
27. M.Williams @OAK
28. S.Johnson @HOU
29. .Young @JAC
30. S.Rice vs. MIN
31. T.Smith vs. CLE
32. .Jones vs. ARI
33. J.Gordon @BAL
34. C.Shorts vs. DET
35. D.Heyward-Bey vs. TB
36. A.Boldin vs. CLE
37. B.Hartline @IND
38. S.Moss vs. CAR
39. A.Roberts @GB
40. D.Bess @IND
41. D.Avery vs. MIA
42. K.Britt vs. CHI
43. R.Broyles @JAC
44. J.Blackmon vs. DET
45. G.Little @BAL
46. N.Washington vs. CHI
47. D.Hester @TEN
48. L.Hankerson vs. CAR
49. D.Henderson vs. PHI
50. K.Wright vs. CHI
TE
1. J.Witten vs. ATL
2. T.Gonzalez @DAL
3. J.Graham vs. PHI
4. H.Miller @NYG
5. O.Daniels vs. BUF
6. G.Olsen @WAS
7. B.Celek @NO
8. B.Pettigrew @JAC
9. M.Bennet vs. PIT
10. J.Gresham vs. DEN
11. B.Mayers vs. TB
12. D.Clark @OAK
13. J.Finley vs. ARI
14. K.Rudolph @SEA
15. J.Dreessen @CIN
16. S.Chandler @HOU
D/St
1. Green Bay vs. ARI
2. Chicago @TEN
3. Houston vs. BUF
4. Seattle vs. MIN
5. Detroit @JAC
6. Denver @CIN
7. Atlanta vs. DAL
8. Tampa Bay @OAK
9. Miami vs. IND
10. Minnesota @SEA
11. NY Giants vs. PIT
12. Dallas @ATL
13. Baltimore @CLE
14. Tennesee vs. CHI
15. Indianapolis vs. MIA
16. Pittsburgh @NYG
Kickers
1. G.Hartley vs. PHI
2. M.Crosby vs. ARI
3. S.Graham vs. BUF
4. M.Prater @CIN
5. R.Gould @TEN
6. J.Hanson @JAC
7. A.Henery @NO
8. L.Tynes vs. PIT
9. C.Barth vs. OAK
10. M.Bryant vs. DAL
11. J.Tucker @CLE
12. K.Forbath vs. CAR
13. P.Dawson vs. BAL
14. S.Suisham @NYG
15. S.Janikovski vs. TB
16. D.Bailey @ATL
Darren Sproles
Saints RB, Darren Sproles, has a fractured hand injury and could be out up to 8 weeks. RB Tavares Cadet will handle return duties while Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram will be at running back with Thoma
s starting and Ingram backing him up. There was no timable for Sprols' return at manager, Joe Vitt's press confrence, but fantasy owners should be prepared for a multi week absence.
Kevin Ogletree
Kevon Ogletree (hamstring) returned to Cowboys practice Friday, getting in a limited session.
He's officially questianable for week 9. We doubt Ogletree will suit up for Sunday Night Footba
ll againsed the Falcons, leaving Dwayne Harris for WR 3 duties. Even if Ogletree does play, he will be off the fantasy radar.
Kenny Britt and Nate Washington
Kenny Britt and Nate Washington (foot) are both listed as probable for week 9 againsed the Bears.
Niether player missed a single rep this week. Both players are acceptable WR3s for week 9.
but Matt Hasselback could have trouble moving the ball through the air againsed the Bears, elite secondary and pass rush.
My week 9 rankings
Week 9 rankings: Bye: St. Louis, New England, NY Jets, San Francisco
QB:
P.Manning @CIN
R.Griffin III vs. CAR
A.Rodgers vs. ARI
M.S
tafford @JAC
D.Brees vs. PHI
M.Vick vs. NO
C.Newton @WAS
B.Roethlisberger @NYG
A.Luck vs. MIA
E.Manning vs. PIT
T.Romo @ATL
M.Ryan vs. DAL
J.Freeman @OAK
J.Flacco @CLE
C.Palmer vs. TB
A.Dalton vs. DEN
J.Cutler @TEN
R.Fitzpatrick vs. HOU
B.Weeden vs. BAL
M.Schaub vs. BUF
R.Wilson vs. MIN
RB
A.Foster vs. BUF
L.McCoy vs. NO
R.Rice @CLE
A.Peterson @SEA
D.Martin vs. OAK
M.Forte @TEN
T.Richardson vs. BAL
M.Lynch vs. MIN
A.Morris vs. CAR
J.Charles @SD
R.Bush @IND
W.McGahee @CIN
R.Matthews vs. KC
D.McFadden vs. TB
J.Dwyer @NYG
J.Stewart @WAS
D.Sproles @PHI
M.Turner vs. DAL
M.LeShoure @JAC
A.Bradshaw vs. PIT
R.Jennings vs. DET
B.Green-Ellis vs. DEN
D.Murray @ATL
F.Jackson @HOU
C.Johnson vs. CHI
L. Stephens-Howling @GB
D.Brown vs. MIA
J.Bell @JAC
P.Thomas @PHI
C.J. Spiller @HOU
D.Thomas @IND
A.Green vs. ARI
J.Rodgers vs. DAL
M.Bush @TEN
A.Brown vs. PIT
P.Tanner @ATL
J.Forsett vs. BUF
R.Mendenhall @NYG
L.Blount @OAK
R.Brown vs. KC
WR
B.Marshall @TEN
A.J. Green vs. DEN
R.Wayne vs. MIA
V.Cruz vs. PIT
C.Johnson @JAC
D.Thomas @CIN
P.Harvin @SEA
J.Jones vs. DAL
M.Wallace @NYG
M.Colston vs. PHI
R.White vs. DAL
A.Johnson vs. BUF
E.Decker @CIN
S.Smith @WAS
D.Moore vs. TB
V.Jackson @OAK
R.Cobb vs. ARI
J.Nelson vs. ARI
L.Fitzgerald @GB
H.Nicks vs. PIT
M.Austin @ATL
J.Maclin @NO
D.Jackson @NO
D.Bryant @ATL
L.Moore vs. PHI
D.Bowe @SD
A.Brown @NYG
M.Williams @OAK
S.Johnson @HOU
T.Young @JAC
S.Rice vs. MIN
T.Smith vs. CLE
J.Jones vs. ARI
J.Gordon @BAL
C.Shorts vs. DET
A.Boldin vs. CLE
D.Heyward-Bey vs. TB
M.Floyd vs. KC
B.Hartline @IND
S.Moss vs. CAR
A.Roberts @GB
D.Bess @IND
D.Avery vs. MIA
K.Britt vs. CHI
R.Broyles @JAC
J.Blackmon vs. DET
G.Little @BAL
N.Washington vs. CHI
D.Hester @TEN
L.Hankerson vs. CAR
TE
J.Witten vs. ATL
T.Gonzalez @DAL
J.Graham vs. PHI
H.Miller @NYG
A.Gates vs. KC
M.Bennet vs. PIT
O.Daniels vs. BUF
B.Celek @NO
G.Olsen @WAS
B.Pettigrew @JAC
J.Gresham vs. DEN
K.Rudolph @SEA
D.Clark @OAK
J.Dreessen @CIN
S.Chandler @HOU
J.Finley vs. ARI
D/St
Green Bay vs. ARI
Chicago @TEN
Houston vs. BUF
Seattle vs. MIN
San Diego vs. KC
Detroit @JAC
Denver @CIN
Atlanta vs. DAL
Tampa Bay @OAK
Minnesota @SEA
NY Giants vs. PIT
Miami vs. IND
Dallas @ATL
Baltimore @CLE
Tennesee vs. CHI
Indianapolis vs. MIA
Kickers
G.Hartley vs. PHI
R.Gould @TEN
J.Hanson @JAC
N.Novak vs. KC
A.Henery @NO
M.Prater @CIN
L.Tynes vs. PIT
C.Barth vs. OAK
J.Tucker @CLE
M.Crosby vs. ARI
K.Forbath vs. CAR
P.Dawson vs. BAL
S.Suisham @NYG
S.Janikovski vs. TB
M.Bryant vs. DAL
D.Bailey @ATL
I will update this tomorrow (J.Nelson, J.Dwyer and others injuries)
6 Reasons You’ll Win Your Fantasy Football League
My fantasy football season is over. I’ve traded away all of my upside and I have more bench points than the rest of my league combined. I honestly have a better chance of dating Pilar Lastra than I
do of winning a championship this year.
But what else is new?
Every year it seems like the same group of guys makes the playoffs. They aren’t necessarily more skillful or talented than I am - I mean I’m the one writing about fantasy football for cryin’ out loud!
So I guess it all boils down to luck...Right?
Wrong!
If I was actually being honest with myself I’d realize that my odds of winning would improve immensely if I played more like you.
I may not have a shot at a title this season, but I’m willing to bet there are at least 6 Reasons You’ll Win Your Fantasy Football League.
Unlike me...
1. You prepare thoroughly - It all started this offseason. You were a mock draft machine. You made your own ranking sheets and dominated your draft by adopting the Late Round Quarterback strategy. (http://lateroundqb.com/about/)
Unfortunately for the rest of your league, you always do your homework.
2. You show genuine interest in your team - You’re enthusiastic every time you talk about fantasy football. You may have started the season 0-3, but you don’t dwell on the past. You keep your roster updated and you work the waiver wire no matter what.
3. You process information quickly - You not only have access to the best fantasy analysis available, you also process information quickly and act decisively.
4. You’re tactful - You’re assertive, not overly aggressive nor too passive. You also have a few tricks up your sleeve when it comes to making trades and working the waiver wire. You always operate from a position of strength.
5. You’re confident and poised - You control your emotions. You realize injuries are unavoidable and losing streaks are inevitable. You never panic because you always account for poor decisions and downside risk.
Learn more about The Margin of Safety at FantasyDouche.com - http://goo.gl/r7UyK
6. You evaluate yourself objectively - You’re brutally realistic. You never let luck’s short-term effects delude your perception of your own abilities. You know how to depersonalize conflict and you never blame your opponent’s mistakes for your failures.
Still think you can't win your fantasy football league?
You don't have to possess all of the qualities I mentioned above to be successful. Just remember that "the biggest difference between winners and losers is that losers do what makes them comfortable, but winners do whatever gets the best long-term results". - Alan N. Schoonmaker, PH.D. (Poker Winners Are Different)
Improve your long-term results at www.GoProFantasySports.com You can also follow me on Twitter @GoProFS24.
Thanks for reading!
NFC South: Sit or Start
With just six weeks left in the regular season of fantasy football, it's most likely that most of you are in crunch-time mode on your fantasy teams for a high playoff seed. As a huge follower of the
NFC South despite my Carolina Panthers sitting in last place in the NFC, here are some players that should be on your starting roster this week and others who you should highly consider sitting on your bench.
Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Josh Freeman: Start all but Freeman. Despite Matty Ice facing the 3rd ranked pass defense, there are too many weapons in Atlanta to not have success each week. Plus the fact that Michael Turner has been grounded this season, look for the Falcons to exploit the Cowboys and roll to an 8-0 start. Cam Newton's struggles have been well documented this season, whether it's his fault or not the criticism will not stop until he has a huge game. That game is this Sunday against the 32nd ranked pass defense of the Washington Redskins. The Redskins are allowing 314.3 yards through the air, and with virtually no running game for the Panthers this is Cam's game to shine in 2012. The Cam vs. RG3 battle is going to be fun to watch. Drew Brees has a tough task going up against Nnamdi Asomugha and company on Monday Night Football. Despite being the 14th ranked pass defense, Brees has too many weapons and the Eagles as a whole are in total disarray. Look for Brees to put up Brees-like numbers, 300+ yards with at least 2 TD's in New Orleans. If you own Josh Freeman I applaud you for keeping him on your roster. Freeman faces the 20th ranked pass defense this Sunday in Oakland. Yes he had a good game against the Vikings, but he has yet to put up back-to-back solid performances the last two seasons. I'd be hesitant to start Freeman this week, especially now that the Bucs offensive line took a huge blow this week.
Doug Martin, Darren Sproles, Jonathan Stewart, , DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner: Sit everyone except for Turner and Sproles. Doug Martin just saw Carl Nicks go out for the remainder of the season, will that have a season long effect? I personally think it will, if you have better options sit Martin this week. If you drafted Sproles in a PPR league you must be ecstatic with him on your roster. I know I am, and there is no way I'm sitting him at any point this season. He'll get his touches and he'll get his TD on MNF. If you have any Carolina RB, sit them. I love Stewart and Williams but Carolina has no running game this season. I don't personally think Turner will have a great game against the Cowboys, but I do think he'll get touches in the redzone. I wouldn't expect a lot of yards, but I do expect a TD.
Julio Jones, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams, Marques Colston: It seems that Roddy White and Julio Jones take turns having big weeks for Atlanta. Julio had a big week in Philly, so I expect Roddy to dominate Morris Claiborne on primetime. It's hard to sit them both, but if you have Roddy you'll be licking your chops this Sunday. Steve Smith will finally find the endzone this week! He won't be able to change the diaper or pounce on the goal post padding, but expect an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the first of two TD's on Sunday for Smitty. I don't really know what to think of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams this week in Oakland. I don't think the Bucs will have a solid run game, so naturally you'd think I'd say start them both. I really think the Bucs offense will struggle on the west coast, I'd have a hard time starting these two guys. I know that Colston will most likely be facing Asomugha this week, but Nnamdi isn't the guy who was feared in Oakland anymore. Yes, Colston came back down to earth last week in Denver but he's still Brees' favorite target and will get his receptions and yards this week.
Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez: I'd start everyone but Clark this week. As I stated numerous times already, I just don't see the Bucs having any success in Oakland. Olsen hasn't had the success most had thought he'd have this season, but Washington is horrid against the pass. Look for Olsen to have a big game along with Steve Smith. Jimmy Graham and Tony G, how do you not start them? Two of the best in the TE class, you know they'll get their touches. If you got them, you better start them. If you don't, I'll hunt you down and give my best Basic Training TI impersonation.
So there are my NFC South predictions for week 9. I haven't done one of these in awhile but if I'm not mistaken, my last predictions were pretty close. Obviously I'm not a coach whipping up the game-plan for Sunday, but I do have a sixth sense about who is going to have a successful Sunday. Good luck to everyone this week, start talking some smack to your opponent!
You can follow me on Twitter, @JasonSaulter and follow my show page @SFinHB.
Week 9 Rankings, Which Matchups to Exploit, Which to Avoid
Week 9 is filled with some of the best matchups of the year for key studs, see Foster, Arian while others might have a tougher go of things, see CJ?k. First lets quickly review last weeks exploits an
d avoids. Manning took advantage facing the worst pass DST throwing for 305yds & 3 TDs. Roethlisberger 222yds-3TDs and Freeman 262yds-3TDs also put up good numbers in favorable matchups. Brady lit up 304yds-4TDs the Rams 12th ranked DST and Stafford torched the Seahawks 3rd ranked DST for 352yds-3TDs. On the other hands, Rivers struggled 154yds-0TDs facing the Browns 29th worst DST and Weeden was putrid putting up 129yds-0TDs. This game did have bad weather but Brady usually throws for 350+ and 3TDs in bad weather.
McGahee 155yds-2TDs, CJ?k 117yds-0TDs and Forte 94yds-1TD all used their good matchups to put up solid fantasy numbers for owners. Dywer 115yds-0TDs and Lynch 106yds-1TD bucked the trend and put up good numbers facing the 10th and 5th ranked DSTs. Doug Martin destroyed the 4th ranked Vikings for 214yds-2TDs in a magnificent Thursday night display of power and agility. McFadden 137yds-TDs disappointed by not finding the endzone and Jamaal Charles 10yds-0TDs was the worst with only 8 touches facing the 21st ranked Raiders DST. Morris 59yds-0TDs struggled vs. the Steelers 12th ranked DST while Leshoure 55yds-0TDs & LSH 38yds-0TDs did the same facing the 3rd and 2nd ranked DSTs in the Seahawks and 49ers respectively.
Both Denver wide outs Demaryius Thomas 137yds-1TD and Eric Decker 47yds-2TDs excelled in their matchup vs. the 31st worst Saints DST. Percy Harvin 90yds-1TD also shined on Thursday night facing a nice matchup in the Bucs 29th ranked DST vs. WRs. Titus Young 100yds-2TDs and Crabtree 72yds-2TDs proved a tough matchup won’t stop them when the faced the 3rd and 9th ranked DSTs respectively. Wallace 62yds-0TDs and Antonio Brown 38yds-0TDs couldn’t capitalize facing the worst DST vs. WRs in the Redskins. Britt 34yds-0TDs and Kerley43yds-0TDs weren’t able to take advantage of their matchups facing the 28th and 23rd worst DSTs vs. WRs. Roddy White 38yds-0TDs and Julio Jones 123yds-1TD continued their trend of one player shining while the other struggles vs. the 13th ranked Eagles DST (the ATL pair has not scored double digit points in the same game this year). Megatron 46yds-0TDs continued his struggles vs. the 3rd ranked Seahawks while DeSean 59yds-0TDs and Maclin 33yds-0TDs did little vs. the 5th ranked Falcons DST.
Heath 46yds-1TD and Graham 63yds-1TD did well facing the 31st and 29th worst DSTs vs. the TE. Witten 167yds-0TDs was a PPR monster with 18 receptions in a tough matchup vs. the 4th ranked Giants. Gronkowski 146yds-2TDs continues to be matchup proof facing the Rams 7th best DST vs. TEs. Davis 34yds-0TDs, Finely 24yds-0TDs, and Dreesen 0yds-0TDs fell on hard times facing the 2nd, 3rd and 5th best DST vs. the tight end position.
So lets see what week 9 has in store for us…
Quarterbacks
Much has been made about Vicks struggles and if he can’t get it done vs. the Saints worst DST vs. QBs, he’ll be on the pine next week while Foles gets his shot to lead the birds. Schaub has a great matchup vs. the horrible Bills but they could run this whole game and Matt might throw less than 20 times. I still like him to connect with Daniels for a TD but Andre’s poor season will probably continue as they play with a lead. Newton should get things going vs. the Redskins that allow 317 yards a game to QBs and 2.3 TDs a game. Freeman and Manning should continue their rise as top12 QBs. Freeman faces the Raiders that give 257yds/gm and 12 TDs through 7 games. Manning is red and gets the Bengals that have only surrendered 9 TDs through 7 games but look for Manning to eclipse 250yds with 2 TDs.
Brees & RG3 face the 12th and 11th best DSTs vs. QBs but both should easily top 17-20 fantasy points, Brees to Graham and RG3 with his legs. Eli could struggle vs. the Steelers that shut down RG3 last week; they only allow 192yds/gm and a low 6.0 YPA. Matt Ryan faces the 4th ranked Cowboys that only give 201yds/gm and just 7 TDs through 7 games. Rodgers faces the 3rd ranked Cardinals that allow 213yds/gm, if Nelson is not back, Rodgers could be held in check again. Lastly Romo gets the Falcons that have 10 INTs through 7 games. Romo has been philanthropic lately with all his picks, the Falcons should add to that interception total.
32 - Saints vs. Eagles ---> Vick
31 - Bills vs. Texans ---> Schaub (+)
30 - Titans vs. Bears ---> Cutler
29 - Redskins vs. Panthers ---> Newton (+)
28 - Vikings vs. Seahawks ---> Wilson
27 - Chiefs vs. Chargers ---> Rivers
25 - Browns vs. Ravens ---> Flacco
24 - Raiders vs. Buccaneers ---> Freeman (+)
23 - Chargers vs. Chiefs ---> Quinn
22 - Colts vs. Dolphins ---> Tannehill
20 - Bengals vs. Broncos ---> Manning (+)
19 - Buccaneers vs. Raiders ---> Palmer
18 - Jaguars vs. Lions ---> Stafford (+)
17 - Giants vs. Steelers ---> Roethlisberger
16 - Dolphins vs. Colts ---> Luck
15 - Packers vs. Cardinals ---> Kolb
14 - Lions vs. Jaguars ---> Gabbert
13 - Broncos vs. Bengals ---> Dalton
12 - Eagles vs. Saints ---> Brees
11 - Panthers vs. Redskins ---> RGIII
10 - Falcons vs. Cowboys ---> Romo (-)
9 - Steelers vs. Giants ---> Eli
8 - Texans vs. Bills ---> Fitzpatrick
7 - Seahawks vs. Vikings ---> Ponder (--)
5 - Ravens vs. Browns ---> Weeden (-)
4 - Cowboys vs. Falcons ---> Ryan
3 - Cardinals vs. Packers ---> Rodgers
1 - Bears vs. Titans ---> Locker (-)
Running Backs
ESPN’s headline says it best, “Now That’s Not Fair”. Fantasy footballs number one player, Arian Foster, is coming off a bye to face the worst DST in the Buffalo Bills. With Tate on the mend, Foster could see extra carries and should top 150 yards with 2 scores. If Tate is inactive, don’t be surprised to see Forsett get some garbage time yardage and a score. This just in, McCoy needs to touch the ball to be successful, the Eagles are 10-1 when he gets 20+ touches, it will happen this week. Forte should fair well as Bush is seeing fewer carries and the Titans give an average of 24.3 points a week to RBs. Richardson is apparently healthy running strong and hard last week. That should continue this week vs. the Ravens that give up 156 yards and 1.1 TDs a game to RBs. Mathews could light up Thursday night vs. the Chiefs that allow 169 yards a game on a 4.7 YPA. Look for McGahee to continue his hot streak vs. the Bengals that give up 22.3 points a game to RBs. Dough Martin faces the Raiders that only give 143 yards a game but Dougie Fresh has 10 days of rest, don’t let the loss of Carl Nicks scare you, Martin will still get it done.
JStew could struggle vs. the 12th ranked Redskins that only allow 106 yards a game. Lynch faces the Vikings that give up 16.5 points per game to RBs on average but were exposed by Martin last week. Bradshaw is not 100% healthy and it should show vs. the Steelers that bottled up a hot Morris and only allow 93 yards a game. Jennings fills in for MJD again this time vs. the Lions who have only surrendered 3 TDs through 7 games. Peterson has tough sledding against the Seahawks that only give up 12.4 points per week to RBs on a 3.4 YPA. Lastly CJ?k faces the Bears #1 ranked DST vs. RBs. The bears give up 98 yards a game to running backs and this is where CJ has struggled as of late. If you haven’t sold high yet, I’d do it before this game, I’ll be surprised if Johnson tops 75 yards or scores.
32 - Bills vs. Texans ---> Foster (++)
31 - Saints vs. Eagles ---> McCoy (++)
30 - Titans vs. Bears ---> Forte (+)
29 - Jaguars vs. Lions ---> Leshoure
28 - Ravens vs. Browns ---> Richardson (+)
27 - Chiefs vs. Chargers ---> Mathews
26 - Colts vs. Dolphins ---> Bush, Thomas
25 - Bengals vs. Broncos ---> McGahee (+)
24 - Panthers vs. Redskins ---> Morris
23 - Falcons vs. Cowboys ---> Jones
21 - Raiders vs. Buccaneers ---> Martin (+)
20 - Browns vs. Ravens ---> Rice
18 - Broncos vs. Bengals ---> BJGE
17 - Packers vs. Cardinals ---> LSH
16 - Chargers vs. Chiefs ---> Charles
15 - Buccaneers vs. Raiders ---> McFadden
14 - Cardinals vs. Packers ---> Green
13 - Cowboys vs. Falcons ---> Turner
12 - Redskins vs. Panthers ---> Stewart
11 - Vikings vs. Seahawks ---> Lynch
10 - Eagles vs. Saints ---> Sproles, Thomas
9 - Steelers vs. Giants ---> Bradshaw
8 - Giants vs. Steelers ---> Dwyer
7 - Lions vs. Jaguars ---> Jennings
6 - Dolphins vs. Colts ---> Ballard, Brown
4 - Texans vs. Bills ---> FJax, Spiller
3 - Seahawks vs. Vikings ---> Peterson (-)
1 - Bears vs. Titans ---> CJ1k (--)
Wide Receivers
Maclin and Jackson have a great matchup vs. the Saints that give up 214 yards a game and 32.5 points per week to WRs. Denarius Moore is 4th in WR points scored the last 3 weeks and gets a nice matchup vs. the 30th ranked Bucs pass DST. Andre Johnson looks like sweet matchup in Bills that give up 27.1 points per game to WRs but Johnson only averages 8.1 points per game, if the Texans excel on the ground, which I expect, there might not be much left for Johnson. Hartline was hot in PPR formats for a couple weeks but is quickly sliding back to mediocrity. He’s 22nd in targets on the year but 97th in scoring over the last 3 weeks. Wallace and Brown get good matchup vs. Giants that give up 16.7 YPA, look for Wallace to get deep. Brown is 14th in targets on the season but only has 1 TD. Wayne should continue to excel, he’s 1st in targets and 7th in points for the year, not bad for a 33-year-old receiver. Detroit might actually benefit from losing Burleson. Stafford got back to form last week and one or two of the 3 wide outs should excel vs. the Jags.
Nelson, Cobb and Jones face a tough Cardinals team that only gives 21.6 points a week to WRs. If Nelson is out again, Cobb and Jones could struggle as neither is a true #1 WR. VJax and Mike Williams face the Raiders 11th best DST vs. WRs but over the last 3 weeks, VJax is #1 in WR scoring while Williams is 7th, they should be fine. Harvin faces the 10th ranked Seahawks but he’s 4th in targets and 5th in WR scoring over the last 3 weeks, they find any way to get the ball into his hands (FYI Andy Reid, you might want to watch some Vikings game tape and use McCoy the same way). Nicks and Cruz face the Steelers that only allow 142 yards a game, this could be a low scoring affair. AJ Green faces off against the Broncos that give 19.2 points per game to WRs (as in the whole teams WRs) but Green averages 15.2 points a game himself. Roddy and Julio square of vs. the tough Cowboys defense that has only surrendered 4 TDs to WRs over 7 games. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker face the Bengals who have also only given up 4 TDs through 7 games. Peyton’s been too hot, DT or Decker will score in what should be a shoot out. Dez and his long (touch the out of bounds line) fingers and Austin matchup vs. the Falcons that only allow 140 yards a game to WRs.
32 - Saints vs. Eagles ---> Jackson, Maclin (+)
31 - Redskins vs. Panthers ---> Smith, Lafell
30 - Buccaneers vs. Raiders ---> Moore (+)
29 - Bills vs. Texans ---> Johnson
28 - Browns vs. Ravens ---> Smith, Boldin
26 - Colts vs. Dolphins ---> Hartline, Bess
25 - Giants vs. Steelers ---> Wallace, Brown
24 - Chargers vs. Chiefs ---> Bowe
23 - Dolphins vs. Colts ---> Wayne, Avery (+)
22 - Packers vs. Cardinals ---> Fitzgerald, Roberts
21 - Chiefs vs. Chargers ---> Floyd, Meachem
20 - Jaguars vs. Lions ---> Johnson, Young, Broyles (+)
19 - Titans vs. Bears ---> Marshall, Hester
18 - Eagles vs. Saints ---> Colston, Moore (+)
17 - Lions vs. Jaguars ---> Blackmon, Shorts
16 - Ravens vs. Browns ---> Little, Gordon
15 - Texans vs. Bills ---> Johnson
14 - Cardinals vs. Packers ---> Nelson, Cobb, Jones
13 - Bears vs. Titans ---> Britt, Washington
11 - Raiders vs. Buccaneers ---> Jackson, Williams
10 - Seahawks vs. Vikings ---> Harvin
9 - Steelers vs. Giants ---> Nicks, Cruz (-)
8 - Broncos vs. Bengals ---> AJ Green, Hawkins
7 - Cowboys vs. Falcons ---> White, Jones (-)
6 - Bengals vs. Broncos ---> Thomas, Decker
5 - Panthers vs. Redskins ---> Moss, Morgan
4 - Vikings vs. Seahawks ---> Tate, Rice (-)
3 - Falcons vs. Cowboys ---> Bryant, Austin
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen faces the Redskins that allow 72 yards a game and 7 TDs through 8 games. Gresham get the Broncos that only allow 59 yards a game but 6 TDs through 7 games. Dreesen should not have to block as much as last week, hopefully he can improve on that ugly goose egg he put up. Chandler could have some garbage time but don’t expect a big day as the Bills play catch-up. Rudolph should continue to struggle as Ponder’s play slides and the Hawks have only allowed 2 TDs through 8 games. Heath Miller and Witten should be fine facing middle of the road defenses. The Chiefs only allow 38 yards a game and could bottle up Gates. Finely’s terrible 2012 season should continue vs. the Cardinals that only allow 33 yards a game to TEs.
32 - Titans vs. Bears ---> Davis
31 - Redskins vs. Panthers ---> Olsen
30 - Broncos vs. Bengals ---> Gresham (+)
27 - Bengals vs. Broncos ---> Dreesen
25 - Lions vs. Jaguars ---> Lewis
24 - Vikings vs. Seahawks ---> Miller
23 - Raiders vs. Buccaneers ---> Clark
22 - Texans vs. Bills ---> Chandler
21 - Panthers vs. Redskins ---> Paulsen
20 - Ravens vs. Browns ---> Watson
19 - Seahawks vs. Vikings ---> Rudolph
18 - Giants vs. Steelers ---> Miller (+)
17 - Dolphins vs. Colts ---> Fleener
16 - Bears vs. Titans ---> Cook
15 - Falcons vs. Cowboys ---> Witten (+)
14 - Packers vs. Cardinals ---> King
13 - Bills vs. Texans ---> Daniels (+)
12 - Chiefs vs. Chargers ---> Gates
11 - Steelers vs. Giants ---> Bennett
10 - Cowboys vs. Falcons ---> Gonzalez
9 - Buccaneers vs. Raiders ---> Myers
8 - Chargers vs. Chiefs ---> Moeaki
7 - Saints vs. Eagles ---> Celek
5 - Eagles vs. Saints ---> Graham (-)
4 - Browns vs. Ravens ---> Pitta
3 - Cardinals vs. Packers ---> Finley (-)
2 - Jaguars vs. Lions ---> Pettigrew
1 - Colts vs. Dolphins ---> Fasano
Good luck in week 9, its time to make that push for the fantasy playoffs! Follow me on twitter @tmcdannell and hit me up with any questions, I’m always up for some fantasy discussions.
Week 9 Bind
iMy team is under producing for me thus far. I am 3-5 in a very competitive 12 Team STD League. This week I have Brady and Keller on bye. For QB my options are limited because everyone has a back up Q
B. My options on the waiver wire are: Ponder vs Sea, Wilson vs Min, Weeden vs Bal, and Gabbert vs Det. I have Finley as my starting TE this week and don't like it at all, my waiver options at TE are also very limited: Chandler, Pitta and Dwayne Allen. Any suggestions as to what I should do?ons on current fantasy football topics
Week 9 DST/TE Recommended Plays/Sits
Brandon Meyers Oak TE-If you're looking for a nice option at TE this week, look no further than the Oakland option. He's producing plenty of catches and yards as of late, and he should see the red zon
e sooner than later. He seems to be developing solid chemistry with Carson Palmer and I expect him to finish the season as a top 10 TE option.
Arizona DST-They are who we thought they were. I don't think anyone expected the Cardinals to beat the 49ers on Monday Night Football. I also don't think anyone thought they'd make Alex Smith look like Steve Young. The Cardinals defenders were producing this season up to this point, but their matchup this week against Green Bay makes them a must sit in my mind. If other options exist, take them.
Detroit DST-Really like the matchup this week for the Lions defense. They're going against a struggling Jacksonville offense and have had a bit of a resurgence in the last couple weeks. I see at least a couple sacks and 1-2 turnovers. The Jags should not score more than 17 this week.
Greg Olson-Olson has been fairly consistent this season. He's arguably Cam Newton's favorite go-to not named Steve Smith and he's got a fair matchup this week against the Redskins. If you've got one of the NE TE's on bye this week or need a pickup to guarantee some solid production, Olson is your guy. I can see 5-7 ccatches for 70-85 yards.
Results: High Fives and Head Slaps--Week 8
My second “High Fives and Head Slaps” article had much better results than my first. My goal is to pick 5 players outside of the projected top-5 that will put up big fantasy numbers, and 5 players th
at are supposed to be in the top-5 but drop out. One of the things I can’t stand is the lack of accountability in fantasy football sports writing, so I’m going to own up to my predictions every week. I use the standard fantasy points results from www.fftoday.com. I recommend using this site as it has many features critical to managing a fantasy football team or two (or ten). Here are the results from Week 8:
HIGH-FIVES:
Quarterback: Tony Romo. I tweeted during the game that Romo was a horrible pick for High-Five but he kept throwing, and throwing, and throwing. Sometimes the Giants caught it, sometimes the Cowboys did. His huge yard total (437) off-set his 4 picks. Only 1 TD, though. Ranked second in points.
Running Back: Stevan Ridley. Ranked # 14 before the week, Ridley didn’t put up big enough numbers (15-127-1) to crack the top-5, but got the consolation prize of being ranked #6. Still a good week, and hopefully was a difference-maker in fantasy lineups.
Wide Receiver: Julio Jones. Somehow, he was ranked #11 before the week, but put up top-3 numbers. Had a huge day. I’m glad to have him in two of my leagues.
Tight End: Heath Miller. Miller did not end the week as the #1 ranked TE, like I anticipated. In fact, he put up HALF the stats I envisioned for him. Still, he ended up with the fourth-best fantasy point total, up from his projected #7 slot.
Defense/Special Teams: Detroit Lions. My lone dud in the High-Five rankings. They were listed as the 13th-best option. I thought they could be top-5-worthy at home, and ended 20th. Like milk, it was a bad choice.
***Overall: Much, much, much better than last week.Although Heath Miller didn’t go #1 like I thought, I nailed the Julio Jones pick. Lions DST was my only disappointment.
HEAD SLAPS:
Quarterback: Tom Brady. All Brady did was completely destroy the Rams, and kept his foot on the pedal of the offense for three and a half quarters. A bad pick for Head Slaps, because he ended up with the 3rd best QB weekend, up from projected #5.
Running Back: Chris Johnson. CJ2K is officially back to being relevant. He has 90+ yards rushing in four of his last five games. I picked him to drop out of the top-5, and he did (#11 after being ranked #4) but I won’t bet against him again for a while.
Wide Receiver: Victor Cruz. By far my best pick of the week. Victor Cruz was the #4 consensus WR before the week started. When it was all said and done, he put up 2 catches for 22 yards, making him the 66th best WR in fantasy. Ouch. I’d be happier about this, except for the fact that I started him in one league.
Tight End: Aaron Hernandez--Did Not Play.
Defense/Special Teams: Seattle Seahawks. They were ranked #5, and did slip down to # 10. I thought the Lions and Seahawks would “flip flop” positions, but that wasn’t the case.
***Overall: I did much better this week in the Head Slaps as well. Victor Cruz stunk up the joint. So, two weeks into “High-Fives and Head Slaps” and I think I have it down now.
--Ryan Dickey (@ffbninja)
RB Waiver Wire: Week 9
Every week I write this I always feel as if I'm writing to single guys who just found out their love interest has just become single, and now is the time to run and make an attempt to sweep the dream
woman off their feet. I can just see it, you look to see who I suggest and the moment your eyes see it you bring up the tab for your fantasy team and snatch up the player. It kind of makes me feel like a pretty girl since the fantasy player has no idea what you're doing, and I thank you for that. Enough funny business, let's get right down to the RB's to look at adding for week 9.
1. Donald Brown/IND: Did no one notice that he was coming back in week eight after missing two weeks? That's all right, I didn't either. Despite the Colts giving Vick Ballard the starting job last week, Brown finished with 14 carries for 80 yards, two more carries than Ballard. Brown is poised to get his starting job back, and despite a possible split scenario with Ballard, Brown is too good and too explosive to not be on someone's roster.
2. Rashad Jennings/JAC: With MJD still out with a foot injury, Jennings has proven that he can handle the increased workload at a productive level. Eight points against a tough Packers run defense in standard leagues with 17 carries for 59. The next two weeks for the Jaguars are against Detroit and Indianapolis at home, two teams that aren't known for their great run defense.
3. Jonathan Dwyer/PIT: 34 carries for 229 nine yards the last two weeks as a starter with back-to-back 100+ yard efforts. Fun fact, Dwyer is the first Steelers RB to record consecutive 100+ yard games in a single season since Willie Parker back in 2009. Not too shabby for a third-string RB. With Mendenhall and Redman still battling health issues, Dwyer is the main focus in the running game.
4. Larod Stephens-Howling/ARI: I have to admit a mistake, when Wells and Williams went down for the Cardinals I said go after Powell. For those of you who actually took my advice, I apologize. However, LSH hasn't been that spectacular either with the exception of a week 7 shocker against Minnesota. Against the 49ers, 8 carries for 6 yards. That was what I expected from Stephens-Howling, however he has proven me wrong in the past. The Cardinals face the Packers this week before going on their bye, LSH is worth a look in PPR leagues.
5. Alex Green/GB: The Packers running game hasn't been pretty this season, actually it hasn't been pretty for about four years now. Despite Green not getting into the endzone, he has been consistently inconsistent since taking over in week six. 144 yards on 64 carries. Yikes! However, he is the only RB the Packers are utilizing. Hope he can find the endzone in week nine if you're desperate.
If you need a spot to fill with Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Shonn Greene, and Steven Ridley all on byes this week the above options are what you need to look at this week. Don't worry folks, only three more weeks of byes then we can all go back to happiness and less hair-pulling.
You can follow me on Twitter, @JasonSaulter. You can also listen to my weekly internet talk show, SportsFans In HeadBands (@SFinHB) every Monday night at 8:00 p.m. EST and "Like" our showpage on Facebook.
Jets Fans Might Want Tim Tebow, But You Shouldn’t
Week 8 marked another terrible outing for New York Jets QB Mark Sanchez. His yardage total was respectable at 283 and he had one TD though he also had one INT. But Sanchez was inefficient, really in
efficient. He completed 28 passes on 54 attempts good for just under a 52% completion rate. Sanchez had a QBR of 12.1 and a rating of 65.6. It’s worth noting Miami’s backup QB, Matt Moore, who filled in for an injured Ryan Tannehill notched a 67.6 QBR and 96.6 QB rating. Through the first 8 games of 2012 Sanchez has only 10 TDs and he has 8 INTs. His completion percentage on the year is only 52.9% so yesterday really was an average day for Sanchez.
This would explain the chorus of “Boo’s” raining down in MetLife Stadium yesterday. Some players have come to Sanchez’s defense such as Dustin Keller who says Jets fans should back their QB, not boo him but this sort of play is not going to lead the Jets to the post season. It just so happens there is another QB on the team, one that that same crowd at MetLife stadium would really like to see. After the crowd booed Sanchez yesterday they quickly followed up with chants of “Tim Tebow!” A change very well may be close since the Jets season, currently sitting at 3-5, is quickly slipping away and they need to do something to salvage any chance at playing in January. So, the Jets fans want to see Tim Tebow in their starting line-up, should you want the same for your fantasy team?
No, and I’ll explain why. The answer is actually much simpler than it seems and it comes down to three little things, Willis McGahee, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. The Jets do not possess any skill players close to the talent level of these three gentlemen that Tim Tebow worked with last year. With every game Peyton Manning plays, it’s becoming more and more evident the Broncos have a potent offense and all they needed was a good QB to run the show and get the ball into the hands of their playmakers. That’s what Tebow did last year except he only managed to do it in the last 3 to 4 minutes of each game. Tebow throws the long ball with great precision and excelled at this last year with long tosses to Thomas and Decker. However, the Jets do not have the same supporting cast to take pressure off of Tebow.
Shone Greene is a plodding back, not one as shifty and powerful as McGahee. To excel in the zone-read scheme a running back has to be versatile, able to read defenses and hit the correct hole. McGahee is a strong running back who can make players miss or run over them. Greene can certainly run folks over, but he’s not making many guys miss. Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill are young unpolished receivers and it shows in their play. Kerley has eclipsed 75 yards receiving in only two of eight games this season while Hill has done it only once. Adding to Tebow’s uphill climb is the Jets schedule. In their next four games the Jets play AT Seattle, AT the Rams, home vs. Patriots then home vs. the Cardinals. That’s 3 of 4 matchups vs. teams with top 12 passing defenses, with the Seahawks and Cardinals ranking 3rd best and 2nd best respectively.
The saving grace for Tebow, pardon the pun, are his legs. After he took over in week 6 of the 2011 season he averaged over 55 yards a game rushing, that’s 5.5 points in standard leagues. He also rushed for 5 TDs over that 11 game span. The reason he was able to achieve these rushing totals is because teams has to respect Thomas and Decker. Last year we didn’t realize just how good these guys where because Tebow was only throwing the ball 21 times a game but when he did throw, it was deep downfield. The Jets lost their downfield threat earlier this year in Santonio Holmes. For me, all these factors combine to say Tim Tebow will not have another miracle season like he did last year.
If you are looking to be sneaky and pick up the next big QB in the game, look to the other side of the country. Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco could replace Alex Smith at some point this season. Smith has been a game manager but that’s it, he’s not a play maker. Kaepernick is like Tim Tebow only he’s a more accurate passer and much faster runner. I’m not saying he’s worth a pick up right now, but if you just want to stash a guy that could be the next big thing, think Kaepernick, not Tebow.
Good luck finishing up week 8 and feel free to hit me up on twitter @tmcdannell
Is Randall Cobb this Year’s Victor Cruz?
Randall Cobb. Few of us outside of Green Bay have heard his name prior to this season. Now in his second season, Cobb was your typical WR4 on the Packers last year posting a stat line of 25 receptions
for 375 yards and 1 touchdown. This year, he’s on everyone’s radar.
Victor Cruz broke on to the scene last year after filling in for an injured Steve Smith. He posted amazing numbers in his rookie year finishing with 82 catches for 1,536 yards and 9 TDs. Truly a breakthrough year for the undrafted free agent rookie receiver.
Cobb, just like Cruz, is the recipient of more playing time through injury to one of the starting WRs. Greg Jennings is going to be out at least another 3 weeks due to his surgery and has only played in 3 games so far this year. And if Jennings injury lingers longer, and if Jordy Nelson continues to miss games with his hamstring injury, we could see more and more of Cobb as their top WR.
Let’s look at the numbers…
Cruz (2011) Cobb (2012)
Receptions 34 42
Targets 51 50
Totals Yards 591 530
TDs 4 4
Only time will tell if Cobb will have the kind of year that Cruz had last year, but so far both are looking to have very similar scenarios and stats.
What to do with Calvin Johnson…Buy Low, or Sell NOW
So you’re a Calvin Johnson owner. More than likely, you spent your first round pick in order to get him. You were all in on him after his incredible season last year. The multiple touchdown games and
200+ yard receiving games had you mesmerized.
Cut to the end of week 8…you’re sick to your stomach. He only has 1 TD all year. For the first time in his career he didn’t even have a target in the first half of the game! Unless you were able to have some of your later round picks break loose you are probably 3-5…or worse…
So now what do you do with Megatron? Do you stick with him and ride it out knowing that his elite talent will turn things around? Or, do you dump him and get what you can for him?
By the Numbers…
In Megatron’s historic 2011 campaign through 7 games he had 679 receiving yards and 10 TDs. You knew when you drafted him that he would regress a little bit from his 2011 season. 10 TDs through 7 games could not be expected again. Well, through 7 games this year he has 638 receiving yards and 1 TD. Pretty close receiving numbers (679 vs. 638). If we look deeper and look at targets and receptions you’ll see that he has the same number of receptions through 7 games in 2012 as he did in 2011 (41). And, he actually has more targets this year (75) than he did through 7 games in 2011 (67). He’s still getting the work and the yards, but the TDs have fallen off.
This week’s game was very discouraging for Johnson owners. No targets until the second half and his second straight 3 catch game for less than 50 yards. Meanwhile, other Lions receivers went off! Titus Young had 9 receptions for 100 yards and 2 TDs. Rookie Ryan Broyles chipped in with 3 receptions for 37 yards and a TD. Even Brandon Pettigrew returned to form and caught 7 passes for 74 yards.
It should come as no surprise that defenses are focusing on Calvin this year after the season he had last year. In fact, Seattle’s secondary is one of the best in the league!
The Good News…
Matthew Stafford is a throwing more passes this year than ever! He’s currently throwing an average of 44.5 pass attempts per game! He is on pace for 715 pass attempts for this year! The NFL record is 691 held by Drew Bledsoe back in 1994! Stafford will continue to throw and Johnson will always be Stafford’s first read.
The Schedule. The last two weeks have been killers for Johnson. But he played against two of the toughest secondaries in the league having played against Seattle and Chicago. He has also faced the 49ers, a very tough Eagles secondary and St. Louis where Courtland Finnegan was on him all day!
The upcoming schedule looks a little better. He has a game next week against the Jaguars, two games against the Packers which are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs, and a 28th ranked Colts pass defense. Only twice through week 15 do they play a pass defense that is in the top 12 in the league.
Despite the good upcoming schedule, pay attention to when your particular fantasy playoffs are as Megatron will face Patrick Peterson and Cardinals in week 15, an Atlanta defense that is 5th against the pass in week 16 and Chicago week 17.
What to do…
Chances are if you own Megatron you are going to weather the storm with him and ride it out. However, if you have a losing record now is the time to begin shopping him in order to turn your season around. Pump up his yardage totals and targets/receptions to potential trade candidates. He still has huge name value so you should still be able to get 90 cents on the dollar for him. At 3-5 or worse you need to make moves to improve your team immediately and turn things around. He is just the guy to get you a stud RB and good WR in return. Think along the lines of a Doug Martin and Eric Decker deal. Shop him around to see what the market is but don’t sell for anything less than 80-90 cents on the dollar.
If you have a winning record, you have the time to watch the Lions turn things around and start getting that offense clicking and getting him the TDs that makes him an elite receiver. Sit back and enjoy the ride. The yards, targets and receptions are there and the TDs will come!
Quick Thoughts on AFC South
Wherever and however you are reading this thank you making PigSkinBoss part of your Sunday. As mentioned no article today, but i did n't want to leave you hanging entirely. Here are some quick thought
s for this week for plug and play's
Titans: Jamie Harper- vulture's td's if you need a flex, he could give you easy points.
Colts: Colby Fleener- Titans 31st rank pass defense.
Texans: We know who to play here.
Jaguars: Rashad Jennings- MJD Down, keep Jennings because this injury will linger.
More advice follow me @IntoTheGray and get to our poll section on PigSkinBoss. Good luck this week and thank you for making us part of your day!
Week 8 Matchups, Which to Exploit, Which to Avoid
This weeks charts are a little different than last week. Instead of putting everything in paragraph form, I’ve made notes next to every player’s matchup so you can determine if the matchup is favorab
le or one you should avoid. The charts below read as follows: Defense Rank vs. Team Studs, Opponent, Stats on Matchup.
The rankings go from best matchup to worst matchup, they are not ranked in order of who I think is best to who I think is worst for the week. Looking at the QBs, Peyton Manning has the best matchup as the Saints give up the most points to QBs. Conversely, Cam Newton has the worst matchup vs the Bears that give up the fewest points to QBs.
QUARTERBACKS
32 - Manning vs Saints worst pass DST allowing 320yds/gm, QBs avg 20.8pts I expect more from Manning
31 - Luck vs Titans 2nd worst DST vs QBs. They've allowed 16 TDs thru 7 gms, Luck top 7 QB week 8
29 - Rivers vs Browns beatable DST, they give 20.1pts/gm to QBs but Chargers have no WRs
28 - Bradford vs Patriots 28th ranked pass DST, they allow 300yds/gm, Rams WRs on the rise
27 - Roethlisberger vs Redskins 27th ranked pass DST. The give up 330yds & 2+ TDs/gm to QBs
26 - Palmer vs Chiefs that get beat deep, they give 8.9 YPA to QBs & allowed 13TDs thru 6 gms
25 - Weeden vs Chargers w/ better run DST than pass. CLE passing more w RB injs & San Diego gives 2.3 TDs/gm to QBs
24 - Quinn vs Raiders that have 11/3 TD/INT ratio, Quinn might get some balls to Bowe
23 - Freeman vs Vikings good run DST, they surrender 241yds/gm thru air but only 8TDs thru 7 gms, no 400yd game here
22 - Locker vs Colts stout DST that only give 223yds/gm but have allowed 12 TDs thru 6 gms
21 - Ponder vs Bucs a nice bounce back gm. TB gives up 329yds/gm on 8.5 YPA
20 - Sanchez vs generous Dolphins DST that allow 303yds/gm but only 7 TDs thru 7 gms
19 - Rodgers vs Jags 19th ranked pass DST. They only give up 15.4pts/gm to QBs but Rodgers on fire now
17 - Cutler vs beatable Panthers DST, they give 260yds/gm & Cam cud give short field to Cutler & Marshall
16 - Gabbert vs Packers middle of the road DST, they allow 16.5pts/gm to QBs and Jags should be playing from behind
15 - Wilson vs Lions decent pass DST that only allows 14.5pts/gm to QBs, expect more running than passing in this one
14 - Romo vs Giants beatable DST, they allow 273yds/gm & 10 TDs thru 7gms on 8.7 YPA, if protected, Romo cud produce
13 - Brees vs Broncos DST that surrenders 6.7 YPA but 11 TDs thru 6 gms, expect shootout
12 - Brady vs Rams 12th best DST vs pass, they allow paltry 6.9 YPA & only 7 TDs thru 7 gms
11 - RGIII vs Steelers stout DST. They give up 195yds/gm but 10TDs thru 6gms, RG3 still top 5
9 - Vick vs Falcons 9th best DST vs pass, they've only given up 1 TD a gm in 2012
8 - Eli vs Cowboys tough DST vs pass. Eli had 337yds last week, Cowboys only allow 203yds/gm
7 - Ryan vs Eagles 7th best DST vs QBs. They give up 6.2 YPA but Ryan & WRs too much, should be nice day
6 - Tannehill vs Jets tough 6th ranked DST that only gives 13.5pts/gm to QBs on paltry 6.6 YPA
4 - Kolb vs 49ers will be uphill battle. 49ers only allow 183yds/gm to QBs and 6 TDs thru 7 gms
3 - Stafford vs Seahawks 3rd best DST vs QBs. They've given up 5 TDs thru 6 gms & only 11.9pts/gm to QBs
2 - Smith vs Cardinals 2nd ranked pass DST that only give up 11.8pts/gm to QBs and 6 TDs thru 7 gms
1 - Newton vs Bears #1 DST vs QBs that just shut down Megatron & Stafford. Be happy if Cam gets double digits
RUNNING BACKS
31 - McGahee vs Saints 31st worst DST vs run, they give 193yds/gm on 4.9 YPA & 27.3pts/gm to RBs
30 - Green vs Jags porous DST vs RBs, they surrender 4.5 YPA & 25.6pts/gm to RBs
29 - CJ1k vs Colts 29th worst DST vs RBs, they allow 5.0 YPA & 153yds/gm, CJ's value should continue to rise
28 - Ballard vs Titans DST that gives 176yds/gm but only 7 TDs thru 7 gms
27 - McFadden vs Chiefs 27th ranked DST. They allow 4.9 YPA, DMC's is 3.1, looks like bounce back game
25 - Forte vs Panthers 25th worst DST vs run, they allow 184yds/gm but only 4 TDs thru 6 games
23 - Bush vs beatable Jets DST that allows 1 TD/gm & 21.5pts/gm to opposing RBs
22 - McCoy vs Falcons that can be beat on ground. They surrender 167yds/gm on 4.9 YPA
21 - Charles vs Raiders better than avg DST, the give 146yds/gm but only 3.7 YPA. JC all KC has
20 - Mathews vs dream matchup in Browns that give 168yds/gm on 4.8 YPA, expect great game
19 - Jennings vs Packers that surrendered 5 TDs thru 7 gms & give 16.8pts/gm to RBs
18 - Sproles, Thomas vs Broncos bend don't break DST vs run, they give 134yds/gm & only 4 TDs thru 6 gms
17 - Gore vs stout Cards DST that’s allowed 4 TDs thru 7 gms & only 129yds/gm to RBs
16 - Bradshaw vs tough DST that only gives 3.8 YPA and 113yds/gm, could be low scoring gm
15 - Peterson vs Bucs that stop run better than pass, TB only gives 108yds/gm & 5 TDs thru 6gms
14 - Hardesty vs Chargers has chance to help owners w T.Rich on sideline. SD gives 16.4pts/gm to RBs
13 - Ridley vs Rams hard DST that allow 113yds/gm & 5 TDs thru 7gms but Ridley usage shaky lately
12 - Morris vs Steelers strong DST but Morris running hard. Pit gives 97yds/gm but Morris will get his
11 - Jones vs Giants that have only given 2 TDs thru 7gms to RBs, don't expect big day
10 - Dwyer vs Redskins #10 ranked DST vs run, they give 100yds/gm but 6 TDs thru 7gms to RBs
9 - Greene vs tough Miami DST that only gives 13.8pts/gm to RBs, expect Greene to return to sub-par
8 - Turner vs Eagles 8th ranked DST that've only allowed 2 TDs thru 6gms to RBs
6 - Jackson, Richardson vs Pats 6th ranked DST that’ve allowed only 2 TDs thru 7 gms to RBs, RBBC in effect, look elsewhere
5 - Lynch vs Lions proved he can produce in tough matchups (19-103 vs SF), expect similar stats vs 5th ranked cats
4 - Martin vs Vikings is on upswing running quick but MIN 4th vs RBs giving 12.9pts/gm
3 - Leshoure vs Seahawks stout DST only giving 12.4pts/gm to RBs PPR note 17 RECs in 4 gms
2 - Powell, LSH vs 49ers 2nd ranked DST that’s given 1 TD thru 7 gms, sit this duo if you can
1 - Stewart vs Bears #1 DST only giving 92yds/gm & 1 TD thru 6gms. Should be as ugly as CHI vs DET last week
WIDE RECEIVERS
32 - Wallace, Brown vs worst DST vs WRs in Skins who give 243yds/gm on 15.1 YPA, Wallace deep? Yes
31 - Thomas, Decker vs Saints 31st worst DST that give 31.7pts/gm to WRs on 217yds/gm & 10 TDs thru 7gms
30 - Floyd, Meachem vs Browns w/ Hayden back couldn’t shut down CIN & AJ.Green but just stopped Wayne & Luck last week
29 - Harvin vs Bucs that give 240yds & 29pts/gm to WRs. Harvin 6th in targets w 67 thru 6gms
28 - Britt, Washington vs Colts 28th worst DST has surrendered 11 TDs thru 6gms. Locker back cud be spark
26 - Gibson, Givens vs Pats 26th ranked DST that’s given 11 TDs thru 7gms & 183yds/gm
25 - Little, Gordon vs Chargers that give 166yds/gm to WRs. Gordon 22 tgts & 4 TDs last 3 games
24 - Bryant, Austin vs Giants DST that gives 186yds/gm & 10 TDs thru 7 gms, its Dez' turn
23 - Kerley vs Dolphins generous DST that give 188yds/gm to WRs. Kerley 26 tgts & 15 recs last 3 gms
22 - Blackmon, Thomas vs Packers that surrender 23.8pts/gm to WRs. Hope for shoot out, probably just blow out by GB
21 - Wayne, Avery vs Titans DST that give 156yds & 1.1 TDs/gm to WRs. Wayne 2nd in tgts w 81
20 - Moore vs Chiefs that give 16.5 YPA but only 8 TDs thru 6 gms. Moore scored 2 weeks in a row
19 - Nelson, Cobb, Jones vs Jags should continue domination. Nelson 243yds & 4TDs while Cobb 191 & TDs last 2 weeks
18 - Tate, Rice vs Lions that just saw Marshall go for 81yds & TD, dif talent but opportunity there
17 - Bowe vs Raiders that allow 174yds/gm but w Quinn @ QB, Bowes had 85yds in 2gms
14 - Colston, Moore vs Broncos that only give 157yds/gm & 5 TDs thru 6gms but Brees otherworldly, look for high scoring game
13 - White, Jones vs Eagles both fresh off bye, DST gives 21pts/gm to WRs but they haven't seen this caliber talent
12 - Welker, Lloyd vs Rams in 3rd straight tough matchup. DST gives 163yds/gm but Welker should be fine
11 - Smith, Lafell vs Bears 11th ranked DST vs WRs, 4 TDs allowed thru 6gms, look elsewhere for flex this week
10 - Moss, Morgan vs Steelers 10th ranked DST, they allow 141yds/gm but RG3 makes things happen
9 - Crabtree, Manningham vs Cards tough DST, they've only surrendered 4 TDs thru 7 gms
8 - Nicks, Cruz vs Cowboys stout DST, they allow 17.9pts/gm to WRs but Cruz #1 in tgts w 81, bring chips, there will b salsa
7 - Marshall, Hester vs Panthers 7th DST vs WRs. They allow 139yds/gm to WRs but Marshall/Cutler hitting stride
5 - Jackson, Maclin vs Falcons 5th ranked DST vs WRs could struggle though Maclin stepped up last week. ATL gives 140yds/gm & 4 TDs thru 6 gms
4 - Jackson, Williams vs Vikings 4th best DST vs WRs, they've only allowed 3 TDs thru 7gms but Jackson playing elite
3 - Johnson, Young, Broyles vs Seahawks 3rd best DST who allow 17.5pts/gm to WRs
2 - Fitzgerald, Roberts vs 49ers 2nd ranked DST vs WRs giving only 2 TDs in 2012 & a paltry 11 YPA
1 - Hartline, Bess vs Jets #1 ranked DST vs WRs who give 131yds/gm & 3 TDs thru 7gms
TIGHT ENDS
32 - Titans vs. Colts ---> Fleener (+)
31 - Redskins vs. Steelers ---> Miller (+)
30 - Jets vs. Dolphins ---> Fasano
29 - Broncos vs. Saints ---> Graham
28 - Patriots vs. Rams ---> Kendricks
26 - Vikings vs. Buccaneers ---> Clark
25 - Raiders vs. Chiefs ---> Moeaki
23 - Lions vs. Seahawks ---> Miller
22 - Panthers vs. Bears ---> Davis
20 - Packers vs. Jaguars ---> Lewis
19 - Falcons vs. Eagles ---> Celek
18 - Bears vs. Panthers ---> Olsen
17 - Dolphins vs. Jets ---> Keller
16 - Seahawks vs. Lions ---> Pettigrew
15 - Cowboys vs. Giants ---> Bennett
14 - Buccaneers vs. Vikings ---> Rudolph
13 - Chiefs vs. Raiders ---> Myers
12 - Steelers vs. Redskins ---> Cooley (-)
11 - Chargers vs. Browns ---> Watson
9 - Eagles vs. Falcons ---> Gonzalez
8 - Browns vs. Chargers ---> Gates
7 - Rams vs. Patriots ---> Gronkowski, Hernandez
6 - 49ers vs. Cardinals ---> King
5 - Saints vs. Broncos ---> Dreesen
4 - Giants vs. Cowboys ---> Witten
3 - Jaguars vs. Packers ---> Finley
2 - Cardinals vs. 49ers ---> Davis (-)
1 - Colts vs. Titans ---> Cook (-)
Back to normal next week Bosses, any questions or comments, leave them below or hit me up on twitter @tmcdannell. Good luck in week 8!
Is Cam Newton a Buy Low Candidate, Yes, Yes He Is
Cam Newton is having a terrible year right? It seems every week we see that close up shot of Cam on the sideline with a towel over his head clearly dejected at how the game has played out. He’s seem
ed distant and aloof in recent press conferences so one has to wonder if his performance this year is based on Cam’s mental health, or if this is an overall team problem.
Let me begin by saying I got the idea for this article after listening to this weeks “Fantasy Underground” podcast by Christopher Harris and Field Yates of ESPN. If you don’t listen on a weekly basis, you should be. It comes out once a week and doesn’t touch on every player, just a selected 7-10 players but they go deeper than the box score and provide very insightful analysis, ok commercial over.
Through week 7 Cam is ranked 13th in total fantasy points for QBs, not what you paid for in a late 2nd round early 3rd round pick. However, Cam is 9th place in average points per week meaning he’s still a top ten guy. Let’s dig deeper and see how the stats play out. In his first 6 games of 2012 Cam stats look like the following:
Passing
1,387 yards, 5 TDs, 6 INTs
Rushing
273 yards, 3 TDs
That calculates to a weekly average of:
Passing
231 yards, 0.8 TDs, 1 INT
Rushing
46 yards, 0.5 TDs
Cam is playing terrible, disappointing owners that are expecting him to be putting up numbers similar to what RG3 is doing in Washington and let’s make that comparison real quick. Both are elite talents at the QB position with big arms, fast legs, they are both accurate passers and neither has a stellar receiving corps. I’d argue Cam has the better lot with Steve Smith as a clear #1 while the best the Redskins can muster is Hankerson and an aging Moss.
With Cam playing this bad, how could he possibly be a buy low candidate? Let’s look at where these bad stats have him projected to be by the end the season. I mean, things couldn’t possibly get worse right? If we take his per game average and extrapolate that for a full 16 game season, this is what we end up with:
Passing
3,699 yards, 13 TDs, 16 INTs
Rushing
728 yards, 8 TDs
These stats would be good enough to rank Cam Newton 8th in fantasy points at the QB position. This means with Cam playing as terrible has he can play, with more picks than TDs he’s still on pace to be a top 10 QB. I have to think things are going to turn around for Cam as his schedule gets much better in the second half of the season.
While Newton faces the vaunted Chicago defense in week 8, after that he gets Washington, Denver, Tampa, Philly, KC, Atlanta, San Diego then Oakland. Only Chicago and the Eagles look like tough matchups and even with Philly, you never know which team is going to show up so that game could easily be a shoot-out. Five of those games are against teams ranked 21st or worst against QB’s. Those 5 teams allow an average of 289 yards and 2 TD’s a game for 19.4 points per week to QB’s.
Don’t make any moves for Cam this week as his value should hit rock bottom after the Bears game. I would however look to get a deal done before his next game where he plays the Redskins that rank 27th vs QB’s allowing 330 yards and 2.1 TD’s a game. If you're an ailing Stafford or Romo owner and think things will turn around for Cam, it's the perfect time to make a move.
What are your opinions? Will Cam turn it around or is this one of the worst sophomore slumps we’ve seen in recent history? Hit me up on twitter @tmcdannell and let me know.
Best of luck in week 8
TRANSACTION SATISFACTION: 2 SAVVY FANTASY FOOTBALL MOVES
You don’t have to lie, cheat, or collude to win your fantasy football league.
When it comes to working the waiver wire and negotiating trades, winners adapt to the game by processing inform
ation quickly and acting decisively. They usually have a few tricks up their sleeve too.
Here are two of the more savvy moves fantasy football owners can use to maximize the value of their weekly player transactions.
The Odd-Man-Out Maneuver
Anytime you’re trading away more players than you’re receiving your opponent will obviously have to drop enough players to level out his roster.
Fantasy owners on the shorter side of the deal should always know who their opponent intends on dropping.
While the answer may seem obvious, you never know what your opponent’s motives truly are. Asking about the Odd-Man-Out can have a significant impact on the overall success of your fantasy football trades.
Here’s how:
1. You may want the Odd-Man-Out for yourself. If your opponent plans on dropping someone, chances are they will have no problem sending them your way. Some leagues will show you who your opponent plans on releasing. If not, you need to ask.
2. You can prevent another opponent from easily filling a void in their lineup. Making this move allows you to control when the Odd-Man-Out goes on / comes off waivers.
3. You can use the Odd-Man-Out as leverage in another trade. Just because you and the current owner don’t need a player doesn’t mean he isn’t useful to someone else in your league. Use your peripherals.
4. You can have the owner you’re negotiating with drop their current Odd-Man-Out and pick up another free agent you’ve been targeting. Your trading partner will then combine the new player along with the player(s) you’ve previously negotiated for in the final trade package. This allows you to get the free agent you want as part of the deal rather than potentially losing out on him during your league’s trade review process.
Leverage The Leg
Kickers are kickers. That’s why we waited until the last round to draft one. It’s also why we’ve never carry more than one at any point during the season (including bye weeks).
Whenever your kicker is going to be on a bye, or you’re comfortable dropping the one you’ve got, I recommend releasing your current kicker so that you can use the extra roster space as a temporary spot for waiver claims and free agent acquisitions.
You can use this move as part of a simple blocking strategy (like the one discussed above) where your goal is to prevent your opponents from easily solving their injury and bye week problems through waiver claims and free agency.
Again, just because you don’t need an available player doesn’t mean he isn’t useful to another owner in your league.
You’re better off in the long run holding on to your backups and placing waiver claims on players with TD scoring upside instead of holding on to a kicker.
If you aren’t able to make a trade, carry the ‘non-kicker’ on your roster as long as possible, then make your move for a fresh leg.
Don’t worry about losing out on what you perceive to be the best available option at kicker that week. I’m willing to bet that the kickers you pass up don’t average any more than 2 points per game more than the one you ultimately end up with.
Kickers are kickers. Leverage the leg!
Need more fantasy football advice?
Hit me up in the comments section below and check out www.GoProFantasySports.com
You can also follow me on Twitter @GoProFS24
High Fives and Head Slaps--Week 8
Each week, I will be finding one player not expected to be in the top-5 at these fantasy positions: QB, RB, WR, TE, D/ST, that will put up top-5 numbers. I’ll also list one player at each position th
at is ranked in the top-5, but will put up numbers outside of the weekly top-5. I use www.fantasypros.com’s consensus weekly rankings. These rankings are a very valuable tool, and I highly recommend using them. Here are Week 8’s HIGH-FIVES and HEAD SLAPS:
HIGH FIVES:
Quarterback--Tony Romo (Cowboys vs. Giants). Romo is ranked #11 for QBs this week. The Giants defense is ranked 21st vs. the pass this year. In Week 1, Romo put up 307 yards passing with 3 TDs and 1 INT at New York. This game will probably be one of the most exciting games of the weekend, and you can expect Romo to put up similar numbers, propelling him into the top-5.
Running Back--Stevan Ridley (Patriots at Rams). Ridley has gone over 100 yards three times in the Patriots first seven games. New England could very well blow the Rams out of the building on Sunday, and the main beneficiary will be Ridley. Involved heavily in the offense, Ridley should top 100 yards and find the end zone at least once. For a guy ranked at the number 14 spot, I’d be glad to pencil Ridley into my lineup.
Wide Receiver--Julio Jones (Falcons at Eagles). After the bye week, I’ll take Julio, who was a pre-season top-5 WR pick to do better than his #11 ranking this week. In fact, I predict a top-3 performance. Going against a team that fired their defensive coordinator after last week’s loss can’t hurt, right?
Tight End--Heath Miller (Steelers vs. Redskins). Heath Miller gets targeted on average 7 times per game, and catches an average of 5 passes each week. He has already scored 5 TDs. This week, he is going against the worst pass defense in the league, and is ranked #7 for TEs. I say he should be ranked #1. Yes, higher than the “4 Gs” (Gronkowski, Graham, Gonzalez, and Gates). Look for 80+ yards and 2 TDs. a great play this week.
Defense/Special Teams--Detroit Lions (vs. Seahawks). The Lions played better than expected at Chicago on Monday night, and if the offense wouldn’t have lost the game by turning the ball over too many times in the red-zone, the story would have been the play of their defense. Playing better at home, and facing a Seahawks team that also plays better at their home, look for the Lions to surpass their #13 ranking, sliding into the top-5.
HEAD SLAPS:
Quarterback--Tom Brady (Patriots at Rams). Ranked #5 for QBs, I see the Patriots getting out to a large lead, and having the opposite of “garbage time”--just trying to run out the clock. Brady may have a big first half, but when the Patriots take the foot off the pedal, Brady will drop out of the top-5 in QB performance this week.
Running Back--Chris Johnson (Titans vs. Colts). Look, I was as surprised to see Johnson go off against the Bills as the next guy, but I’m not buying that he has finally “gotten it” and is returning to his former dominant self. He is ranked as the consensus #4 RB. If he has a big game against the Colts, then maybe my tune will change, but I don’t back “CJ2K” as a top-5 performer. Yet.
Wide Receiver--Victor Cruz (Giants at Cowboys). Cruz, ranked #4 in the consensus rankings, is the only receiver in the top-5 going against a solid defense against the pass. The others (Marshall, D. Thomas, Harvin, and J. Nelson) all go against softer defenses. Of the five, I see Cruz still having a decent game against the Cowboys, but not top-5 worthy.
Tight End--Aaron Hernandez (Patriots at Rams). I’m going against Hernandez again this week. He’s listed as the #5 option at TE. While I own Hernandez in two leagues, and will start him in one of them, I see others (especially Heath Miller) having a better weekend than Hernandez. Five catches for 45+ yards and 0 TDs is what I expect.
Defense/Special Teams--Seattle Seahawks (at Detroit). I see these two teams “swapping out” in the rankings this week. If Detroit can reverse their turnover problem, and somehow get Calvin Johnson the ball, they should be able to win this game at home, and take the Seahawks DST down from the #5 ranked defense/special teams unit to the middle of the pack.
--Ryan Dickey (@ffbninja)
Week 8 DST/TE Strategy Plays
Dustin Keller-Widely available, Keller is starting to flash signs of the greatness he provided fantasy owners with a few years back. He has always had chemistry with Mark Sanchez, so I'd look at him i
f you're needing a bye week fill-in or have roster space as a buy low option.
Miami DST-Despite the fair amount of success from the Jets offense this season, they still are higly prone to turnovers and silly mistakes. The Dolphins have played consistent defense all year and look to continue that off a bye week. Pick them up and start with fair confidence that they'll be servicable.
Jacob Tamme-A dissapointing year to be sure for Tamme, who many owners were hoping would find the chemistry he had with Peyton Manning a few years ago. He's going against New Orleans this week, however, a team that always manages to find itself in shootouts. I'd expect Tamme to see plenty of targets and provide surprising fantasy numbers this week.
Lions DST-The Lions are already in a season-deciding point of their season. Hard to imagine coming off their impressive breakthrough campaign in 2011, but the Lions aregoing into week 8 at a dissapointing 2-4 record. They are going to need to pick up a W this week and I think both their offense and defense get back on track this week. Seattle has not shown the ability to put up huge numbers against anyone, and I expect that trend to continue. Look for multiple turnovers and less than 20 points allowed by Detroit.
Christmas Morning with Rashad Jennings
I love fantasy football; I mean I really love fantasy football. I play in six leagues from family and neighborhood leagues to an expert’s vs fans league with Rotowire. This past Sunday saw one of fa
ntasy footballs biggest stars, Maurice Jones-Drew, go down with an undisclosed foot injury. MJD was ruled out of week 8’s matchup early Monday, which was not a good sign that this injury will be short lived. This presented an opportunity seldom seen in fantasy football. A chance to get an impact player mid-season that you know will see the ball 15+ times a game and is already ranked inside most experts top 15 for week 8.
MJD averaged just over 20 touches with the Jaguars so his back up Rashad Jennings has extreme value right away as few players in the NFL get this much work. Jennings has fared well in the past when he filled in for MJD averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Jennings has RB1 size too at 6’ 1” 228lbs so he can handle the full workload of an every down back.
Adding to Jennings value is how many other starting RBs that have been either fighting injury (Murray, Fred Jackson, Spiller, Richardson) or disappointing (McFadden, Forte, McCoy). All this combines to several owners in your league wanting and needing a player of Rashad Jennings value.
Last night had the feel of Christmas Eve as I put in my bids for Jennings. I am 3-4 in a couple leagues where I was hit with the same injuries and disappointments above. For me this meant I had to make an impact move, do everything I could to land a dynamic player and make my run at the playoffs. As much as I like to plan ahead for defenses and players with great matchups during the play offs, you first have to make the playoffs.
Last week Felix Jones was the hot pick up when Murray went down and in two leagues an owner bid almost 50% of his FAAB budget so I figured the bidding for Jennings would be just as fierce if not worse. As I put in my bids, I couldn’t help but think, this could be the defining moment that turned the season from playing for my money back in 5th place vs making a run at the super bowl and some big winnings. I must have revised each bid 2 or 3 times as I reviewed all my competitors and what they needed. Ultimately I bid roughly 2/3rds of my FAAB budget thinking that should be enough.
Going to bed was hard, like telling a kid on Christmas Eve that’s just seen a ton of presents under the tree to just fall asleep, you’ll see what Santa brought you in the morning. I’m on the east coast so waivers process at roughly 3-4am, needless to say as soon as I woke up I ran to my iPad and checked each league. It had the same feeling as running down stairs and ripping open those presents.
Ultimately I got Jennings in 4 of 6 leagues, all of which have FAAB waivers. The other two use rolling waivers and I didn’t have a high enough priority to get Jennings. What about you guys? Did you bid on Jennings? Did you get him?
Good luck week 8 and hit me up on twitter @tmcdannell
Week 8 Waiver Wire RB update
We're seeing an unusual amount of injuries to key RB's in fantasy football this season and I personally have been a victim of two of those players, DeMarco Murray and MJD. So this is a crucial week f
or me personally and the next four weeks in general for fantasy owners as that's how many bye weeks are left to deal with. So here we go with this week's edition of RB's to pick up, and just for fun I'll throw in some guys to possibly trade for if the situation is right for your team.
RB's to add for week 8:
1. Felix Jones/DAL. Not the game I expected him to have against a porous Carolina run D, but is still a great option with Murray on the bench for America's Team. Just 7 points in standard leagues last week but you cannot doubt he won't be able to find the endzone during Murray's absence. Despite Phillip Tanner taking away carries, Jones is the go-to-guy in the backfield for now.
2. Montario Hardesty/CLE: Yeah, you may think I'm crazy for this guy at #2 and maybe I should have my head checked after I hit the "post" button. Hardesty has 22 carries over the last two weeks with a TD in week 6. The Browns made it clear that Trent Richardson will not miss time but you have to assume they'll lighten his workload until completely healthy, which may not happen until after their week 10 bye week. With the possibility of double-digit touches, it's hard to say there is no chance he won't find the endzone.
3. Daryl Richardson/STL: I've had this guy's name on radar for a few weeks now and for some reason no one is believing me on this. Richardson is available in 88.6% of ESPN leagues and has had 19 carries for 112 yards the last two weeks. This is the Rams transition period from Jackson to Richardson, his workload will be solid the remainder of the season barring any health setbacks.
4. Jonathan Dwyer/PIT: Dwyer was finally given the opportunity to take the blunt of the workload for the Steelers last Sunday night and didn't disappoint. 17 carries for 122 yards against a mediocre Bengals run D is very solid for a third string RB. With Mendenhall still iffy at best with his health and Isaac Redman still nursing an ankle injury, don't be surprised if the Steelers lean heavily once again on Dwyer this week against the banged up Redskins.
5. Danny Woodhead/NE: Yes, Woodhead is a wild-card when coming to fantasy due to the team he plays for. Regardless of that, he's accumulated 17 carries for 89 yards the past three weeks in a loaded backfield that includes Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen. Brady loves Woodhead and he's a great security blanket on dump-offs. He's a great fill-in especially in PPR leagues due to his ability to carry, catch, and return for the Patriots.
So there it is, five guys worth looking at if you need to fill some holes this week with guys like Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, and The Law Firm on byes. Other players to consider adding are Rashad Jennings, Phillip Tanner, and Alex Green.
Possible trade pieces to consider if you have these players are LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw and Ahmad Bradshaw. Sell the names high if you need other pieces to strengthen your teams down the stretch. McCoy and Bradshaw are products of offenses that throw often and Charles is on a team that will get behind early and throw the ball to give themselves a fighting chance. Just a suggestion!
If you'd like to read or hear more from me you can follow me on Twitter, @JasonSaulter and @SFinHB. You can also hear my weekly internet show every Monday night at 8:00 p.m. EST on www.clnsradio.com, SportsFans In HeadBands.
Results: High Fives and Head Slaps--Week 7
My first “High Fives and Head Slaps” article got off to a very inauspicious start to say the least. My goal is to pick 5 players outside of the projected top-5 that will put up big fantasy numbers, a
nd 5 players that are supposed to be in the top-5 but drop out. One of the things I can’t stand is the lack of accountability in fantasy football sports writing, so I’m going to own up to my predictions every week. I use the standard fantasy points results from www.fftoday.com. I recommend using this site as it has many features critical to managing a fantasy football team or two (or ten). Here are the results from Week 7:
HIGH-FIVES:
Quarterback: Jay Cutler--I thought Cutler would easily go over 325 yards passing against the Lions, and throw for 3 TDs. He didn’t even do HALF of that. Putting up only 150 yards in the air with 1 TD pass was not the great “bye week replacement” that I thought he would be. I’m glad he got “Suh-plexed”. He finished 19th in standard fantasy scoring. A far cry from top-5.
Running Back: C.J. Spiller--Even with sharing snaps with Fred Jackson, I thought Spiller could gash the Titans defense. He had a very pedestrian game, finishing with 70 yards on 12 carries with no touchdowns. He did catch 6 passes, but only accumulated 32 yards. Good enough for 18th overall for running backs. Meh.
Wide Receiver: Kenny Britt--One week, I’ll stop thinking he will go big. That’ll be the week he does. Four catches for 30 yards. He was the 60th-ranked WR. A huge dud. Thanks, Ken.
Tight End: Jermaine Gresham--The good news is nothing. He caught three passes for 19 yards. The 23rd-ranked TE. Hope you didn’t start him. My bad.
Defense/Special Teams: N.Y. Giants--FINALLY! I picked a squad that would TIE for 5th place in standard fantasy scoring. But it was a bittersweet prediction: they scored just 7 points in that format. I also predicted them to out-score the Vikings DST.
***Overall: putrid picking on my part for the High Fives. I can only do better this week.
HEAD SLAPS:
Quarterback: Robert Griffin III--Well, RGIII is something else. After watching Cam Newton re-write the rookie quarterback record books last year, I figured there’d be NO WAY that Griffin III could be as dominant. I was wrong. He’s MUCH better. He ended up 20-for-28 passing, for 258 yards, 2 TDs, a pick, and had 89 yards rushing on 9 carries. Good enough for third in standard scoring, RGIII was a beast.
Running Back: Maurice Jones-Drew--My best pick of the weekend, because he got hurt after two carries, gaining 6 yards. He was the 61st-ranked RB on the board. See, I TOLD YOU!
Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson--I also nailed this prediction. Johnson was targeted often, but managed just 3 catches for 34 yards. This is how you beat the Lions. Bracket CJ, and the rest is history. Calvin was the 52nd-ranked WR. Two good picks in a row for me!
Tight End: Aaron Hernandez--As I predicted, Aaron Hernandez did in fact slip out of the top-5, all the way down to 10th. He did catch 5 passes, for 54 yards, but was a consensus top-5 pick. Another correct call for me makes three in a row!
Defense/Special Teams: Vikings--All the Vikings did was have the BEST FANTASY WEEK for DSTs. I suggested taking the Giants over the Vikings. I was wrong. The Vikings top-ranked DST put up 15 points in standard leagues. The streak is over for me.
***Overall: I did much better with the Head Slaps. Hopefully this week I can put them both together. But at least I’m not afraid to admit my mistakes. Has to be worth SOMETHING, right?
What to do With Maurice Jones-Drew
Yesterday afternoon there were just two games that kicked off at 4:25 EST, the New England Patriots hosting the New York Jets and the Oakland Raiders hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland's own
MJD. On just his second carry of the afternoon, Maurice Jones-Drew suffered a foot injury that landed him on the sideline and crutches for the rest of the game. The extent of the injury is currently unknown but fantasy owners need to take action right away and fear for the worst. Backup Rashad Jennings (22% owned Yahoo) finished the game taking 21 carries for 44 yards and a TD while adding 7 catches out of the backfield for 58 more yards. He is probably the 1st guy you should look to add just because he is one of the few "starting" RBs left on waivers.
The Arizona Cardinals figured out how to rush the football yesterday against the Minnesota Vikings and it was all LaRod Stephens-Howling (15%) who took 20 carries for 104 yards and a TD while catching 4 passes for 45 yards. It was William Powell (40%) who got 13 carries last week and took them 70 yards against the Bills, but he was limited to just 4 carries this week. Be careful when adding either guy!
Alex Green (55%) of the Green Bay Packers is another starting RB option that is likely available but his upside is very limited.
Obviously at this point in the fantasy season, there are few running backs available on waivers, but owners will have a few stashed on their benches. With another 4 teams on BYE weeks, owners will be without C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ray Rice and Arian Foster in Week 8. Maybe you can work a deal for one of the Buffalo backs or the law firm himself, while on their BYE weeks! If these owners won't move them, look for other trades as well.
It is important to remember that YOU CAN NOT REPLACE MAURICE JONES-DREW!
http://www.wetalkfantasysports.com/
Quick Outs AFC South:
Wherever and however you are reading this on your football Sunday, thank you for making it part of your day. Great match ups this week for the AFC South Fantasy Locks going against teams with pitiful
defenses. I am still high on Andrew Luck, and why not? Great match up, great mind and just a great guy think a man crush is coming out. Anyway we may see the reemergence of CJ2K in Buffalo according to @jwyattsports winds are high so the run game will be crucial. The California sun might be what MJD’s offense needs to find the end zone and remind us why he is considered a top ten fantasy running back.
For last minute line up questions shot it to me on twitter @intothegray. Thank you for making this part of your day and good luck this week in fantasy!
3 Fantasy Locks:
Arian Foster- Always, Always a must start. Facing 28th run defense Baltimore without Ray Lewis.
Reggie Wayne- Believe it folks this guy is a solid WR start him if you got him, facing Cleveland’s stellar 31st Pass defense.
Chris Johnson- Holy Shnikes! I put him here. Great match up this weekend against Buffalo with its terrifying 32nd ranked run defense.
3 Quick Gets for Bye-Weeks
Kendall Wright- Underrated and catching passes, he is facing the 23rd ranked pass defense.
Andrew Luck- 31st pass defense this week and he makes good decision’s roll with him id he is on the wire.
Coby Fleener- Mentioned 3 times now the Browns 31st best pass defense him or Dwayne Allen could snag a TD pass.
3 Fantasy Mentions
Kenny Britt- Does not look like himself, but managed a TD catch and is a red zone target. Risk/Reward play- if you need a flex or WR2 roll with him with caution. Facing the Bills 23rd ranked Pass Defense
Andre Johnson- 2 touchdowns in 6 games. Ouch! Only one +100 game week one, you still have to play him…? If you have a more consistent option move him to flex. Facing 25th ranked Pass Defense w/o Ray Lewis and top CB Lardarius Webb.
Maurice Jones-Drew- I love this guy, but he is a RB2 call it like it is. The Jaguars are a bad team with project QB. Playing on the Road in Oakland with the 11th ranked run defense and 19th Pass Defense. An OK match up on paper but a long trip…play him with RB2 expectations.
Week 7 List, Start-Sit Advice-Stats for all QBs, RBs, WRs
QUARTERBACKS
Hasselbeck vs Bills 32nd ranked pass D, they allow 271yds & 2.2 TDs/gm
Fitzpatrick vs Titans pourus pass D who allow 299yds/gm & 13 TDs vs 4 INTs thru 6gms
r />Luck vs Browns giving up over 300yds & 2.5 TDs a game to oppsing QBs, bounce back game
Eli vs Redskins is dream matchup, Skins give 330yds/gm & over 2TDs to QBs
Freeman vs Saints who r giving 300yds/gm but only 9 TDs thru 5 gms
Roethlisberger vs Bengals that surrender 250yds/gm and only 8 TDs thru 6 gms, hope for shootout
Weeden vs Colts that only give up 215 yds/gm but 10 TDs thru 5 gms
Palmer vs Jags stingy pass DST that allow 260yds/gm but only 6 TDs thru 6 games
Cutler vs Lions avg DST giving 15 points per game to opposing QBs, expect Marshall & Cutler to stay hot then milk lead
Romo vs Panthers DST that are susceptible to big play, they allow 7.7yds/attempt vs QBs
Dalton vs Steelers stingy DST, they allow less than 215yds/gm and under 6.6yds/attempt to QBs
Flacco vs Texans TALL DST, likely playing from behind, Watt may knock down several passes but Texans do give 2TDs/gm to QBs
RGIII vs Giants #12 DST against QBs, they give 275yds/gm, look for shootout, RGIII will be fine but might have TO's
Brees vs Bucs bend don't break DST, they allow 320yds/gm but only 4 TDs thru 5 gms, expect that # to go up
Rodgers vs Rams & their heavy pass rush, DST gives under 230yds/gm and only 4 TDs thru 6 gms, look for more dink/dunk
Newton vs #7th ranked Cowboys DST who allow less than 199yds/gm, expect Cams struggles to continue
Brady vs div rival Jets & their #5 DST vs QBs. They allow 216yds/gm & 6 TDs thru 5 gms. Mite see mor Ridley v porous run D
Schaub vs decimated Ravens DST, Lewis & Webb on IR, Suggs Q, this shud be 1 sided but Foster may be beneficiary
Ponder vs Cards #2 DST against QBs allowing only 5 TDs thru 6 games & a paltry 6.7 YPA
Stafford vs Bears #1 DST against QBs. They've allowed 4 TDs & have 13 Ints thru 5 gms. Stafford shud continue 2012 struggles
RUNNINGBACKS
Martin vs Saints 32nd ranked DST against RBs, they allow 204yds/gm & 29 pts/gm to opposing DSTs. Martin is solid RB2
Richardson vs Colts DST that gives 170yds/gm and 1.5 TDs gm plus a 5.2 YPA. Richardson low end #1 this week
McFadden vs Jags horrible DST, they allow 27.8 pts/gm to RBs via 182yds/gm. Look for RunDMC to get back on track
Johnson vs Bills 29th worst run DST has all the signs of him earning back the CJ2k name. Bills allow 5.1 YPA and 170yds/gm
Jones vs Panthers DST is as juicy as they come. Cats allow 197yds/gm and 24.5pts/gm to RBs
Jackson, Spiller vs Titans DST should prove fruitful for both. Spiller more xplosive vs DST allowing 168yds/gm
Dwyer vs Bengals underrated run DST that only allows 144yds/gm. Expect a shared backfield, flex at best here
Foster vs Ravens is as tasty a matchup as u can ask for. Lewis on IR & Suggs not expected to play, Foster in for HUGE day
Ridley vs Jets shud get his grove back. Boldin out & Jets allow 153yds/gm @ 4.4 YPA & 7 TDs in 2012, Ridley solid RB2
Jones-Drew vs Raiders 22nd ranked run DST that allows 21.4pts/gm to RBs, rest of season MJD's value will rise, buy now
Ballard vs Colts DST that gives up 171yds/gm on 5.0 YPA but Browns only surrendered 3 TDs in6 gms
Jackson, Richardson vs Packers DST that only allow 123yds/gm & 4 TDs thru 6 gms. Rich will see ball mor playing from behind
Williams, Stewart vs Cowboys stout DST looks like tough sledding. Look else where but JStew is better play, esp in PPR
Green vs Rams staunch DST, they allow 116yds/gm & a total of 16.6pts/gm to RBs. W/ lead GB shud run mor, Green decent flex
Green-Ellis vs Steelers 14th ranked DST vs run who allow 101yds/gm and only 3 TDs on ground thru 5 gms
Peterson vs Cards that give up 4.1 YPA and only 3 TDs thru 6 gms. Peterson shud find paydirt this week at home
Morris vs tough Giants DST that have only allowed 2 TDs thru 6 gms to RBs. O/U is 49.5 so possibility will b ther for points
Sproles, Thomas vs Bucs 11th ranked run DST that only allows 3.2 YPA and 107 yds/gm, Sproles still a must start in PPR
Bradshaw vs overrated Redskins run DST, they allow 99yds/gm and 13.9pts to RBs but only b/c so easy to throw on secondary
Rice vs Texans 7th best run D giving up only 12.3pts/gm to RBs. BAL playing from behind cud mean lots of dumps to Rice #PPR
Forte vs overated Lions DST that allow 95 yds/gm on 3.4 YPA. Expect Bears to have lead & use ball control in 2nd half
Greene vs Pats 5th best DST & have allowed only 1 TD to RBs in '12. Jets playing catchup means more McKnight. Greene RB3
Leshoure vs stout Bears DST that give 88yds/gm, 1 TD in '12 on 3.5 YPA, Leshoure flex this week
Powell vs Vikings #2 ranked run DST allowing only 93yds/gm, 2 TD's in '12 and 2.9 YPA, look elsewhere if you can
WIDE RECEIVERS
Nicks, Cruz vs Redskins 32nd worst DST that allow 15.2YPA & 33.8pts per game to WRs, expect good things
Wayne, Avery vs Browns generous DST, they surrender 215yds & 2 TDs/gm to WRs, Avery solid Flex this week
Jackson, Williams vs Saints 30th ranked DST vs pass allowing 14.9 YPA and 29.8pts/gm to WRs
Britt, Washington vs Bills 28th ranked DST that've allowed 11 TDs thru 6 gms @ 14.9 YPA & 28.2pts/gm to WRs
Colston, Henderson, Moore vs Bucs DST that allow 224yds/gm but only 3 TDs thru 5gms to WRs
Little, Gordon vs Colts DST that surrender 27.2pts/gm but only 13.3 YPA, not expecting Gordon deep this week
Moss, Morgan vs Giants 24th ranked DST vs pass allowing 190yds & 27pts/gm to WRs
Gibson, Givens vs Packers that allowed 6 TDs thru 6 gms to WRs, don't expect big things
Marshall, Hester vs Lions that have only allowed 3 TDs thru 5 gms & surrender only 164yds/gm
Moore vs Jags 18th ranked DST that allow 22.4 pts/gm to WRs. Moore will increase that
Smith, Boldin vs Texans DST that give up 153yds/gm & 7 TDs thru 6gms. Smith shud excel in junk time
Johnson vs Titans DST that only allow 161yds/gm & 5 TDs thru 6 gms
Johnson vs Ravens that r walking wounded. Texans shud run all over birds, Johnson might not get his
AJ Green, Hawkins vs 12th ranked Steelers DST who allow 151yds and 13 YPA per game, Green solid but Hawkins might struggle
Harvin vs Cardinals stingy DST allowing 3 TDs to WRs thru 6gms. Harvin so involved it won't matter, still a WR1
Johnson, Burleson vs Bears #10 DST vs pass allowing 12 YPA & 160yds/gm. Count on trash time for Megatron
Bryant, Austin vs Panthers #8 DST vs pass allowing 140yds/gm. Dez nursing injury, might be Austins turn
Smith, Lafell vs 5th ranked Cowboys DST who only allow 130yds/gm. Don't expect long ball to Smith
Wallace, Brown vs Bengals stout DST that give up 144yds/gm & 4 TDs thru 6 gms. No run game means Big Ben will lean on WRs
Fitzgerald, Roberts vs #3 ranked Vikings DST with a staunch 10.7 YPA & 2 TDs thru 6 gms. Temper expectations
Nelson, Jennings, Cobb vs Rams tough pass rush & 2nd ranked DST. Only 2 TDs allowed thru 6gms. Rodgers will change that
Welker, Lloyd vs Jets #1 pass DST allowing 138yds/gm & 3 TDs thru 6gms. Won't matter, Welker will get his, Lloyd will struggle
Good luck week 7 and look for me on twitter @tmcdannell
High Fives and Head Slaps--Week 7
Each week, I will be finding one player not expected to be in the top-5 at these fantasy positions: QB, RB, WR, TE, D/ST, that will put up top-5 numbers. I’ll also list one player at each position th
at is ranked in the top-5, but will put up numbers outside of the weekly top-5. I use www.fantasypros.com’s consensus weekly rankings. These rankings are a very valuable tool, and I highly recommend using them. Without further ado, (or any ado for that matter, here are Week 7’s HIGH-FIVES and HEAD SLAPS:
HIGH FIVES:
Quarterback--Jay Cutler (Bears vs. Lions, MNF). Cutler should have one of his best statistical nights of the season against this Lions secondary. The Lions defense started out bad, and injuries have made it worse. Look for Cutler (who is a great bye-week replacement this week) to light up the Lions, to a tune of 325 yards, 3+ TDs.
Running Back--C.J. Spiller (Bills vs Titans). Even though Spiller will share carries with Fred Jackson, the matchup of Spiller vs the front-7 of the Titans leads me to believe C.J. can break off some long runs. I see a 100+ yard game from Spiller with 2 TDs.
Wide Receiver--Kenny Britt (Titans at Bills). It’s going to happen. I thought last week would be Britt’s 2012 coming out party, but maybe I was a week early. I see the Bills winning this game handily, and Britt getting 10+ targets, topping 100 yards, and scoring at least one TD.
Tight End--Jermaine Gresham (Bengals vs Steelers, Sunday night). The Steelers defense is bad. The Bengals defense isn’t good. This game has all the feel of a shoot-out, and Gresham is poised to sneak into the top-5 with a solid game. Gresham is tied with Owen Daniels for 6th in targets of tight ends playing this week (Graham out, T. Gonzalez, Celek, and Tamme on byes).
Defense/Special Teams--Giants (vs. Redskins). Although they have played better on the road than at home this year, I see a solid effort from the Giants in a division game at Met Life Stadium. With the poor aftertaste of the Week 1 loss to the Cowboys, look for the Giants to ratchet it up a notch against RGIII and his weak support staff.
HEAD SLAPS:
Quarterback--Robert Griffin III (Redskins at Giants)--See above. I don’t like what RGIII has around him, talent-wise. I see the Giants winning the game on both sides of the ball.
Running Back--Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars at Raiders)--This was the toughest pick, because the “top-5” consisted of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, MJD, and Adrian Peterson. Of the 5, I’m picking Jones-Drew to be the one dropping out of the top-5, with C.J. Spiller supplanting him.
Wide Receiver--Calvin Johnson (Lions at Bears, MNF). Teams have figured out how to beat the Lions. The Lions have ZERO run game, and double-teaming Johnson is the easiest way to beat the Lions offense, because they have to pass, and the o-line doesn’t pass protect for long. Johnson will get some catches, and MAYBE a TD, but his overall numbers drop him out of the top-5.
Tight End--Aaron Hernandez (Patriots vs Jets). Hernandez is listed as the #4 tight end in www.fantasypros.com’s consensus weekly rankings. Although he is now one week removed from missing multiple games, the explosiveness is not there yet. Look for Hernandez to have a mediocre game. His time is coming, but it’s not this week.
Defense/Special Teams--Vikings (vs. Cardinals). Another tough call with the Bears, 49ers (Thursday night), Packers, and Patriots the other teams in the top-5. I’m not predicting the Vikings to get gashed by the Cardinals as much as I feel the Giants will end up with more standard fantasy points than the Vikings. If for some reason you have the Vikings AND Giants on your fantasy roster--start the Giants.
--Ryan Dickey (@ffbninja)
Week 7 Tight End and DST Options
The ups and downs this season with respect to tight ends have been a source of confustion for many owners. Between injuries (Graham,Hernandez,Gronk,) unexpected production (Gonzo, Daniels,Miller) and
breakthroughs (Rudolph,Olsen,Gresham) getting consistency out of a tight end might be a pipe dream this season. Week 7 offers up some decent plays if you're plugging in on a bye week like many of us are.
Defensively, there appears to be the elite (Niners,Bears,Packers) and then everyone else. As an owner of Baltimore's defense I've begun looking elsewhere after they have lost much of their talent due to injuries. Depending on what's available in you're league, plug and play might be the way to traverse your way through the tough bye weeks.
Scott Chandler-Readily available in many leagues, he's going up against a Tennesse Titans defense that apparently has decided to allow the TE position to do as they please. Pick him up and expect 5-7 snags and a TD.
Green Bay-DST -After going down to Houston with a chip on their shoulder, Green Bay seems to have found the motivation needed to produce solidly week in and week out. I expect them go go to St. Louis and allow fewer than 17 points and create trouble all day long for Sam Bradford and his dangerously thin receiving corps.
Martellus Bennett-Washington has given up the second most points to opposing Tight Ends and Bennett has had a few down weeks. He'll see a revival in week 7 with at least 5 catches and a touchdown. Pick him up if you're plugging in.
New England DST-After losing a heartbreaking in Seattle, Tom Brady and Bellechik will be back at Foxborough witha chip on their shoulder. The Jets always come to play, but I see Sanchez and co. turning over early and often. If the NE D is out there, they will serve as a nice option for pickup this week. Expect fewer than 21 pts allowed and at least two turnovers.
Week 7 Rankings, Which Matchups to Exploit, Which to Avoid
Last week we looked at all the skill position players and how they matched up against the defenses they were facing. Did they have a favorable matchup facing the worst passing defense in the Redskins
or where they facing the best run defense in the San Francisco 49ers. Before diving into week 7’s rankings, lets see what we learned from week 6.
In the passing game, Ponder, Wilson and Dalton had the top three favorable matchups and each delivered. While none matched the likes of Rodgers and Griffin, each topped 19 points in standard scoring, pretty good considering the crowd. The bottom ranked signal callers were Eli, Tannehill and Brady. Brady did not disappoint putting up 19 points but Eli was very pedestrian with only 193 yards and 1 TD. Flacco and Romo were also near the bottom each turning in subpar performances of 13 and 16 points respectively.
Running backs were a debacle in week 6 with several injuries that marred the rankings. Powell and Ballard grabbed the top two spots and did not do much with their matchups. Turner, Richardson and Mendenhall rounded out the top 5 with the latter two getting injured and Turner having his worst outing with only 33 yards on 11 carries. Greene had a career day with 3 TD's and 161 yards, so run to the market now and SELL, SELL, SELL! The harder matchups saw Bradshaw vs. the 49ers and Morris vs. the Vikings. Bradshaw showed the 200 yard performance of week 5 was no fluke and was the first back to eclipse 100 yards rushing vs. the 49ers in San Fran’s last 44 games. Morris was held to 47 yards rushing but added a score to have a decent day. Ridley was pulled early in the game but got back into action once Boldin got injured. He ended the day with only 34 yards rushing. McCoy faced the 4th ranked defense against the run in the Lions and only mustered 22 yards rushing but added 26 yards receiving and a TD catch to salvage a ‘flex score’ type of day.
The wide outs did about as expected with AJ Green lighting up the Joe Hayden led Browns for 135 yards and 2 TDs. Harvin continued his PPR success with 11 grabs for 133 yards while Bowe struggled with only 21 yards on 3 balls from Brady Quinn. Fitz faced the 25th worst pass defense in the Bills and took advantage to the tune of 6 for 93 and a score. Cruz had the toughest matchup and while he scored, he was held to 11 points. Nelson and Cobb had the 2nd toughest matchup facing the Texans but both excelled. Nelson went off for 121 on 9 grabs adding 3 touchdowns. He would have had 4 if the turf monster hadn’t tripped him up. Cobb didn’t score but continues his PPR onslaught with 7 snags for 102 yards. Denarius Moore exceeded expectations vs. the Falcons with 5 balls for 104 and a score.
So, in the end what did this experiment teach us? What did we learn from analyzing the matchups? In most cases, we saw that talent can out weigh a tough matchup but even the best players can be curbed by bad matchups (Cruz, Ridley, Eli). In fantasy football there’s a very controversial saying, ‘don’t bench your studs’. I’m about 85% in agreement with that statement. Look there are players you should NEVER bench, like Foster, White, Rice and Brady to name a few. The difficult part is when you get to those players ranked 10-20th at their position as their success is often dictated by good matchups.
Ok, enough looking back, lets look forward to the week 7 rankings. I’ve added TE’s this week so we’ll dig a little deeper into everyone’s line up. Week 7 has 6 count’em 6 teams on bye so some big names will be missing from the lists below.
The charts below read as follows: Defense Rank vs. Position (QB, RB, WR, TE) Team Name, Opponent, Team Studs, Matchups to watch.
Defenses with a rank of 32 are the worst and giving up the most points to the position. Defenses with 1 are the best and giving up the fewest points to the position.
The field generals…
32 - Bills vs. Titans ---> Hasselbeck
31 - Titans vs. Bills ---> Fitzpatrick
30 - Patriots vs. Jets ---> Sanchez, Tebow
29 - Browns vs. Colts ---> Luck (+)
28 - Redskins vs. Giants ---> Eli (+)
27 - Saints vs. Buccaneers ---> Freeman
26 - Raiders vs. Jaguars ---> Gabbert
25 - Chiefs -- BYE WEEK
24 - Vikings vs. Cardinals ---> Kolb
23 - Chargers -- BYE WEEK
22 - Bengals vs. Steelers ---> Roethlisberger
21 - Colts vs. Browns ---> Weeden
20 - Dolphins -- BYE WEEK
19 - Packers vs. Rams ---> Bradford
18 - Jaguars vs. Raiders ---> Palmer
17 - Lions vs. Bears ---> Cutler
16 - Panthers vs. Cowboys ---> Romo
15 - Steelers vs. Bengals ---> Dalton
14 - Broncos -- BYE WEEK
13 - Texans vs. Ravens ---> Flacco
12 - Giants vs. Redskins ---> RGIII
11 - Buccaneers vs. Saints ---> Brees
10 - Falcons -- BYE WEEK
9 - Eagles -- BYE WEEK
8 - Rams vs. Packers ---> Rodgers
7 - Cowboys vs. Panthers ---> Newton (-)
6 - 49ers vs. Seahawks ---> Wilson (-)
5 - Jets vs. Patriots ---> Brady
4 - Ravens vs. Texans ---> Schaub
3 - Seahawks vs. 49ers ---> Smith (-)
2 - Cardinals vs. Vikings ---> Ponder
1 - Bears vs. Lions ---> Stafford (-)
Week 7 is pretty ugly at the QB spot with all the best matchups going to the lower level QB's. Andrew Luck draws the 29th ranked Browns and coming into week 6, Luck was ranked 3rd in QB scoring to look for him to get back to putting up points. Eli grabs the 28th ranked Redskins secondary so while we did see some salsa dancing in San Fran, there could be a full on salsa clinic in New York this weekend. Roethlisberger had a posh matchup last weekend but he only put up 17 points. This week he grabs the middle of the road Bengals 22nd ranked defense. Hope that Dalton and AJ Green get out in front and Big Ben is in catch-up mode. Stafford grabs the #1 ranked Bears defense that has a 4/13 TD/INT ratio and Matthew has not been playing great lately averaging 298 yards and less than 1 TD a game. Brady has his second straight tough matchup facing his division rival Jets and their 5th ranked DST. I expect the Pats will unleash some revenge this week so don’t worry about Brady. You’re playing Rodgers, period. Lastly is Cam who draws the Cowboys #7 ranked secondary that have allowed fewer than 200 yards passing and just over 1 TD a game. Cam’s struggles may continue this week.
Next up, Running Backs…
32 - Saints vs. Buccaneers ---> Martin (++)
31 - Colts vs. Browns ---> Richardson (inj), Hardesty
30 - Jaguars vs. Raiders ---> McFadden (++)
29 - Bills vs. Titans ---> Johnson (+)
28 - Panthers vs. Cowboys ---> Jones
27 - Chiefs -- BYE WEEK
26 - Titans vs. Bills ---> Jackson, Spiller (+)
25 - Bengals vs. Steelers ---> Mendenhall
24 - Ravens vs. Texans ---> Foster (++)
23 - Jets vs. Patriots ---> Ridley
22 - Raiders vs. Jaguars ---> Jones-Drew
21 - Falcons -- BYE WEEK
20 - Browns vs. Colts ---> Ballard
19 - Broncos -- BYE WEEK
18 - Packers vs. Rams ---> Jackson, Richardson
17 - Cowboys vs. Panthers ---> Williams, Stewart
16 - Rams vs. Packers ---> Green
15 - Chargers -- BYE WEEK
14 - Steelers vs. Bengals ---> Green-Ellis
13 - Cardinals vs. Vikings ---> Peterson
12 - Giants vs. Redskins ---> Morris
11 - Buccaneers vs. Saints ---> Sproles, Thomas
10 - Dolphins -- BYE WEEK
9 - Eagles -- BYE WEEK
8 - Redskins vs. Giants ---> Bradshaw
7 - Texans vs. Ravens ---> Rice
6 - Lions vs. Bears ---> Forte
5 - Patriots vs. Jets ---> Greene
4 - Bears vs. Lions ---> Leshoure
3 - 49ers vs. Seahawks ---> Lynch
2 - Vikings vs. Cardinals ---> Powell
1 - Seahawks vs. 49ers ---> Gore
Doug Martin should shine this week facing the Saints 32nd ranked run defense that allows 200 yards and 1.4 TD’s to running backs. Richardson might miss this week with a rib injury, if he can’t go, Hardesty has a nice matchup vs. the Colts. McFadden needs to get things going vs. the Jags 30th ranked D. Jacksonville allows more than 180 yards and 1.6 TDs to RB's. Chris Johnson looks to continue his climb back to fantasy relevance vs. the 29th ranked Bills. It will be hard to keep CJ?k on the bench with this matchup. Felix Jones taking over for an injured Demarco Murray could have a huge day vs. the 28th ranked Panthers that allow just under 200 yards a game to RB's. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller have a nice matchup vs. the Titans with Spiller being the more explosive back lately. Foster faces a decimated Ravens defense this week and could easily see 150 yards and 2 scores.
Gore draws a tough sledding vs. the Seahawks #1 D while Marshawn Lynch gets the #3 ranked 49ers who were embarrassed last week. Temper expectations for both backs. Leshoure and Greene both face staunch defenses that have allowed only 1 TD this season. Forte, Rice and Bradshaw draw tough matchups statistically but Rice is the only true hard game. Everyone throws on the Lions and Redskins inflating their defensive rank vs. the run. Rice faces the Texans that have not allowed a rushing TD this season and Baltimore stands to be playing from behind which could limit Rice’s carries.
Week 7 Wide outs…
32 - Redskins vs. Giants ---> Nicks, Cruz
31 - Browns vs. Colts ---> Wayne, Avery
30 - Saints vs. Buccaneers ---> Jackson, Williams
29 - Patriots vs. Jets ---> Kerley
28 - Bills vs. Titans ---> Britt, Washington
27 - Chargers -- BYE WEEK
26 - Buccaneers vs. Saints ---> Colston, Henderson, Moore
25 - Colts vs. Browns ---> Little, Gordon
24 - Giants vs. Redskins ---> Garcon, Moss, Morgan
23 - Dolphins -- BYE WEEK
22 - Raiders vs. Jaguars ---> Blackmon, Thomas
21 - Packers vs. Rams ---> Gibson, Givens
20 - Lions vs. Bears ---> Marshall, Hester, Jeffery
19 - Chiefs -- BYE WEEK
18 - Jaguars vs. Raiders ---> Moore
17 - Texans vs. Ravens ---> Smith, Boldin
16 - Titans vs. Bills ---> Johnson
15 - Ravens vs. Texans ---> Johnson
14 - Broncos -- BYE WEEK
13 - Eagles -- BYE WEEK
12 - Steelers vs. Bengals ---> AJ Green, Hawkins
11 - Cardinals vs. Vikings ---> Harvin
10 - Bears vs. Lions ---> Johnson, Burleson
9 - Seahawks vs. 49ers ---> Crabtree, Manningham
8 - Panthers vs. Cowboys ---> Bryant, Austin
7 - Falcons -- BYE WEEK
6 - 49ers vs. Seahawks ---> Tate, Rice
5 - Cowboys vs. Panthers ---> Smith, Lafell
4 - Bengals vs. Steelers ---> Wallace, Brown
3 - Vikings vs. Cardinals ---> Fitzgerald, Roberts
2 - Rams vs. Packers ---> Nelson, Jennings (inj), Cobb
1 - Jets vs. Patriots ---> Welker, Llyod
As I stated earlier, Cruz should post monster numbers vs. the Redskins paltry defense that allows 250 yards and 1.5 TDs a game to wide outs. Wayne should get back to big numbers vs. the Browns while the new Tampa duo of Jackson and Williams should do damage while trying to keep up with the Saints. Kenny Britt should continue his return vs. the 28th ranked Bills that allow almost 2 TDs a game to the WR position. Welker and Nelson draw tough defenses this week both allowing fewer than 145 yards a game to WR's. Fitzgerald and the Pitt twins don’t get it any easier each facing the 3rd and 4th ranked defenses against WR’s respectively. Look for Steve Smith and Lafell to struggle vs. the Cowboys that have allowed only 3 TDs through 5 games to wide outs.
Last but not least, Tight Ends…
32 - Titans vs. Bills ---> Chandler
31 - Redskins vs. Giants ---> Bennett
30 - Broncos -- BYE WEEK
29 - Patriots vs. Jets ---> Keller
28 - Bengals vs. Steelers ---> Miller
27 - Lions vs. Bears ---> Davis
26 - Raiders vs. Jaguars ---> Lewis
25 - Vikings vs. Cardinals ---> King
24 - Jets vs. Patriots ---> Gronkowski, Hernandez
23 - Texans vs. Ravens ---> Pitta, Dickson
22 - Packers vs. Rams ---> Kendricks
21 - Panthers vs. Cowboys ---> Witten
20 - Bears vs. Lions ---> Pettigrew
19 - Steelers vs. Bengals ---> Gresham
18 - Cowboys vs. Panthers ---> Olsen
17 - Falcons -- BYE WEEK
16 - Dolphins -- BYE WEEK
15 - Seahawks vs. 49ers ---> Davis
14 - Bills vs. Titans ---> Cook
13 - Chiefs -- BYE WEEK
12 - Chargers -- BYE WEEK
11 - Buccaneers vs. Saints ---> Graham
10 - Ravens vs. Texans ---> Daniels
9 - Browns vs. Colts ---> Fleener
8 - 49ers vs. Seahawks ---> Miller
7 - Rams vs. Packers ---> Finley
6 - Eagles -- BYE WEEK
5 - Cardinals vs. Vikings ---> Rudolph
4 - Jaguars vs. Raiders ---> Myers
3 - Giants vs. Redskins ---> Davis
2 - Saints vs. Buccaneers ---> Clark
1 - Colts vs. Browns ---> Watson
Chandler has been very TD dependent but the Titans allow better than 1.3 TDs a game to TE’s. Martellus Bennett should bounce back vs. the Redskins that allow 75 yards and almost 1 TD a game to TE’s. Heath Miller should continue his great season vs. the 28th ranked Bengals that allow 60+ yards/game to TE’s. Fred Davis draws the Giants #3 ranked D that allow fewer than 50 yards and 0 TD’s to TE’s. Kyle Rudolph might slow down vs. the Cards 5th ranked DST who allow a measly 32 yards per game receiving to TE’s.
Good luck in week 7 and feel free to hit me up on twitter @tmcdannell with any fantasy football questions.
5 Tight Ends We Wish We'd Never Drafted
Can you believe six weeks of the NFL season have already passed us by? Time sure flies when you're getting your butt kicked in fantasy football.
It seems like it was only yesterday that we
started discussing who we’d draft in the PigskinBoss iDraft War Room.
Looking back I’m feeling pretty good about most of my preseason prognostications. I laid a couple turds, but so does everyone else who writes about fantasy sports.
The same can be said about the advice I gave in “This, That, and 5 Other Things I Learned About Week 5”.
Last week I promised you Heath Miller would score a touchdown against the Titans. I was wrong.
However, six catches for 67 yards wasn’t the worst performance from a tight end last week.
That award should go to one of these guys:
5 Tight Ends We Wish We'd Never Drafted
Brent Celek (PHI) - If you’re an Eagles fan, you can blame Philadelphia’s loss to Detroit last week on Michael Vick. If you started Vick at quarterback and lost your fantasy football matchup, you should blame Brent Celek.
Celek dropped an 8 yard touchdown pass in the 3rd quarter and had another called back for offensive pass interference. Celek was targeted 8 times and finished with the day with just 4 catches and 33 yards.
We drafted Celek a little earlier than we should have this year because we were told the Eagles planned on using the 6th year TE more as a receiver and less as a blocker. Clearly that plan is failing.
The Eagles are on a bye this week. This is the perfect opportunity to break it off without anyone’s feelings getting hurt.
Jermichael Finley (GB) - Speaking of feelings getting hurt. Apparently things aren’t going so well for Jermichael Finley in Green Bay. He’s feeling a little left out after not being included in any of Aaron Rodgers’s 6 TD passes against the Texans on Sunday night.
According to an article from Brad Briggs of NFPOST.com, Finley feels his relationship with Rodgers is lacking chemistry.
“I need the quarterback on my side, and I need to catch the ball when he throws it to me. So it takes two things to get that going, the chemistry. I feel we need to get that going."
Those of us that drafted Finely “need” to start looking for another tight end. Based on what I’ve read, the problem between Rodgers and Finley has more to do with repeated drops than the periodic table.
Rob Gronkowski (NE) - Six catches for 61 yards would have been acceptable from any tight end not named Rob Gronkowski last week. Heading into Week 6 we were already second guessing ourselves for this second round pick.
To make matters worse, it looks like the return of Aaron Hernandez is going to impact Gronkowski more than it will Wes Welker. That doesn’t mean we should look to unload Gronk anytime soon.
For now, we’ll have to temper our expectations and remember to adjust our draft strategy next year.
Realistically we should expect 600 yards and 6 more TDs from Gronk by the end of Week 16 vs. the 900 / 9 he’d need to finish with in order to match his pre-season projections.
Again, that doesn’t mean the upside isn’t there. If I didn’t already own Rob Gronkowski, I would definitely be polishing up my sales skills.
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) - We were patient. We passed on Gronkowski, Finley, and Celek. We thought we got a steal when we selected Brandon Pettigrew with our third to last pick. We even stuck with him through the Lions’ bye week. Boy were we wrong.
Pettigrew only has 1 TD catch through five games this season. According to Yahoo! Sports “he played only 38 of the team's 78 offensive snaps, by far his most limited work of the season. He was the player most often removed when they went to the three-tackle package.”
When you take away opportunities for Pettirgrew to get deep, you take away the upside his fantasy owners need to keep him in their starting lineups. Better luck next year in the late round TE lottery.
Any TE not named Tony Gonzalez (ATL), Owen Daniels (HOU) or Kyle Rudolph (MIN) - Your numbers hit this year if you drafted one of these three tight ends, especially if you picked them up after the likes of Vernon Davis (SF) and Antonio Gates (SD). Hopefully you were able to capitalize on solid WR and RB options in the rounds that your opponents drafted the "elite" tight ends.
So far all three late round tight ends have more fantasy points per game than Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.
With the exception of their bye weeks, you should have no hesitation starting any of these three red zone scoring threats for the remainder of the season.
Over to you...
You can share your thoughts with me on Twitter @GoProFS24 or in the comments section below.
Thanks for reading!
Week 7 RB Help
Don't you just love bye weeks? Especially when big name RB's like LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Michael Turner will all be sitting out week 7? It is unfortunate, however there are a few guys who
could be your saving grace this week as we approach the halfway point in the fantasy football regular season.
RB's to add: Felix Jones, Alex Green, Daryl Richardson, Isaac Redman, and William Powell.
Felix Jones will now become the featured back in Dallas as DeMarco Murray is out with an injury, with Jones facing a banged up Carolina D in week 7 expect monster numbers from fresh legs. Alex Green had steady numbers against a solid Texans D
despite having James Starks breathing down his neck. Expect Green to take the workload and get plenty of work between the 20's for Green Bay. Daryl Richardson is slowing starting to be "the man" in the St. Louis backfield as the Rams let the aging Jackson take less reps in the last year of him being a St. Louis Ram. Despite going up against a tough Green Bay run D, it's hard to count out Richardson's production in week 7. With Mendenhall not quite at 100% and Jonathan Dwyer still battling injuries, Redman has yet another opportunity to show he can be a solid option in the Steelers backfield this Sunday night against a mediocre Cincinnati run D. With Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams on IR and LSH banged up, Powell put up 70 yards against the Bills D on Sunday. He will once again be the featured man this week going up against the Minnesota Vikings.
So there it is folks, if you're hurting at RB this week just as I am in two standard leagues then these are the guys you need.
I just want to throw out a quick prediction as well since this guy is sitting on a lot of people's bench. Ben Tate is going to have a 2 TD game this week against Baltimore. Foster has been carrying a huge load for the Texans this season, eventually that workload will take its toll. Now that Baltimore is obliterated on defense, Ben Tate will take advantage of that. If you have Tate, you better start him!
Help!!!
i know this isnt an article but if i dont do this trade the other guy will make a trade with someone else and i cant post a poll till monday or tuesday... my eli and graham for d thomas and turner...
my other qb and te is matt ryan and heath miller... my other rbs are rice charles and spiller wrs are green a brown and floyd and rice and spiller both have the same bye week
Quick Outs AFC South
3 Fantasy Muffs
• Andre Johnson- Injury slowing him and a potent run game, might what to look else where.
• Kenny Britt*- Had a TD but the guy has to start playing to his ability.
•
Ben Tate- Only one good game so far, but if you have Foster you need him on the bench.
3 Fantasy Locks
• Andrew Luck- This guy is for real. With bye weeks in play he is a great fill in or even a match up play.
• Arian Foster- unless he gets hurt he will never leave the Locks.
• Reggie Wayne- Luck’s guy and had 211yards last week.
3 Fantasy Bye Week
• Kevin Walters- Tied Andre Johnson last week for targets could be a flex option in deep formats.
• Matt Hasselbeck*- The 37-year-old played good on Thursday night.
• T.Y. Hilton- Proving to be a solid TE in FF
* Played Thursday
Thank you for making PigSkinBoss.com part of your day. We appreciate you using us to help achieve fantasy football greatness. If you would like to hear more from me check out chrisgrayarea.blogspot.com or follow me on twitter @IntoTheGray for all your fantasy questions. Thank you and Good Luck This Week!
Five Sly Starts In Week 6
Five Sly Starts consists of players who are only being started in 25% or lower of fantasy leagues for the current week. These are guys who flying under the radar with favorable matchups but can play a
role in helping you pick up the W. How you manage your lineup during bye weeks and in the case of injuries is crucial to any owners success over the course of the season. Hopefully this list helps to make some critical decisions when options are slim.
Week 6 bye weeks: Carolina, Chicago, Jacksonville, New Orleans
-Brandon Weeden, CLE, vs CIN (own%/start% in ESPN Leagues: 3.3/5.3)- Weeden’s best game of the year came in Week 2 against this same Cincinnati Bengals’ defense where he threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns while not turning the ball over once. As ugly as the Browns have been this year, the 28 year old rookie has actually played rather well. Taking away his first start against a tough Eagles defense in Week 1, Weeden has since averaged 292.5 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception per game. That’s nothing to sneeze at considering the circumstances. Besides the rookie already torching them once, the Bengals defense isn’t very good in general as they rank 12th-worst against fantasy quarterbacks. If you’re in a tough spot this week and play in a deeper league, you should certainly give Weeden a look.
-LaRod Stephens-Howling/William Powell, ARI, vs BUF (own%/start% in ESPN Leagues: 8.3/20.6, 0.4/2.2)- The way I see this situation playing out is LSH will initially get the nod and should do plenty of productive things against a Bills defense that has surrendered 200+ rushing yards two weeks in a row. However, I think Powell will assume the starting role over the long term going forward as he seems to be better built to be a three-down back. All that said, I feel like both will be productive Sunday as there is plenty to go around when facing the Bills. The Patriots had two 100 yard rushers against this defense in Week 4, and the Niners had both backs go over 80 yards last week. If the Cardinals pound the rock, there’s no reason it shouldn’t happen for a third time.
-Brandon Gibson, STL, vs MIA- (own%/start% in ESPN Leagues: 10.9/21.5)- With Amendola going down in last week’s Thursday night game, Gibson takes over the No. 1 role in St. Louie. The Dolphins are one of the league’s best at stopping the run and should pose as a wall to the St. Louis’s run game. This means Bradford and company are going to have to put the ball in the air to keep the chains moving. It’s a hell of a brew when you consider that the ‘Phins are fifth-worst against fantasy wide receivers this year. Don’t shy away from starting Gibson this week.
-Zach Miller, SEA, vs NE (own%/start% in ESPN Leagues: 0.4/1.0)- Zach Miller hasn’t really done anything worth mentioning so far through this 2012 campaign. His best game was last week where he caught three passes for 59 yards. However, this week I expect the Seattle tight end to cash in his best game of the season as he plays a pass defense that is third-worst and have allowed five touchdowns in the past three games to fantasy tight ends. New England ranks ninth against the run this year so Wilson is going to have to complete passes throughout this game if Seattle plans on having a chance to win it. If you’re a Graham owner, Miller could fill in that spot in your lineup quite nicely this week.
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST, vs KC (own%/start% in ESPN Leagues: 02.8/4.9)- Tampa’s defensive unit has had two productive weeks, and two awful weeks. The one thing they have done well this year, is stop the run and with two weeks to prepare, their hope is to at least contain JC Superstar. Whether that can be done will remain to be seen. Brady Quinn will be tasked with taking advantage of the soft Bucs secondary but how much faith do you really have in that? The Chiefs offense has given up the 4th most points to fantasy defenses. If you’re about the stream theme, look no further than the Buccaneers D/ST in Week 6.
Feel free to comment, bosses! You can also follow me on twitter @FFgridiron
Reaction to Thursday Night's Game
One of the things I dislike about fantasy sports writers is that you’ll get an article that says “start this guy”, or “sit this guy”, and when the games are all said and done there’s no accountability
. I go into writing my articles knowing that I’m going to be right on some things, and some things won’t work out the way I had anticipated. That’s fantasy football. But what I will NOT do, is hide and simply move on to the next week without admitting where I was wrong (and maybe gloating a bit about when I was right). So, here it goes for the Thursday night game in which the Titans beat the Steelers:
QUARTERBACKS:
I expected Roethlisberger to put up 300+ yards and surpass Terry Bradshaw as the all-time Steelers leader in passing yards. I expected more than the lone TD pass to Mike Wallace for 82 yards, but if you started Big Ben, a 24-for-40 performance with 363 yards a TD and 1 INT isn’t too bad.
I didn’t think Matt Hasselbeck was a solid start for two reasons: a.) he shouldn’t be rostered in most leagues, and b.) he was playing against what I thought would be a decent, but not spectacular Pittsburgh defense. You could do better than starting Hasselbeck. If you did, you got a 25-for-44 performance, 290 yards, and a TD and 1 INT. Not too bad.
RUNNING BACKS:
I expected about 20 touches from Rashard Mendenhall. He had seven. Six carries for 6 yards, and one catch for 11 yards before leaving the game with an Achilles injury. You can’t anticipate injury on a per-game basis, so who knows if the prediction was on track or not?
I expected this to be Isaac Redman’s “final week of major importance” in the Steeler offense. I did NOT expect him to catch four passes for 105 yards. I’d like to read an article that did. He had 72 yards receiving in all of 2010 and 78 yards in all of 2011. We’ll label this as a serious outlier.
I was wrong about Chris Johnson. I labeled him as a “sit”, but he could have been used as a decent flex play. Nineteen carries for 91 yards and four catches for 23 yards is a decent night. He still scored no touchdowns. His longest run of the night still wasn’t longer than Ben Roethlisberger’s longest run (CJ-13 yds. vs Big Ben 14 yds.) but it’ll do.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
Mike Wallace pretty much had the stat-line I expected from him. Although he only caught two passes on 4 targets, a 94 yards receiving night with one 82-yard TD catch is what you’d expect from a WR1.
Antonio Brown only caught 4 of his 10 targets for a measly 20 yards. In fact, he only “caught” three of the passes. One of the four he got credit for actually hit the ground, and wasn’t reviewed. If you started Brown--sorry.
Emmanuel Sanders had four catches for 43 yards on 6 targets.
Then there’s Kenny Britt. I expected him to have his first “complete game” of the season--putting it all together for four quarters. While I was right that he’d be covered by Ike Taylor, I was wrong about Britt. He put up good numbers (4 catches, 62 yards, 1 TD) but had 11 targets and dropped a ton of passes. He could have had a breakout game, but failed miserably. I’d take the stats from a fantasy perspective, but his game was disappointing.
I stated that if you had to choose between Nate Washington and Kendall Wright, that the rookie was the choice. The stats back that up: Washington 3/57/0 vs Wright 6/71/0.
TIGHT ENDS:
Heath Miller had a Heath Miller night. Six catches for 67 yards on 9 targets. No touchdown this week though.
Jared Cook was only targeted four times all game, and caught all four for 54 yards. No touchdown either.
KICKERS:
I don’t predict the kickers on a game-by-game basis, because it’s a crap-shoot. Shaun Suisham had a very good game, but was asked to kick a field goal out of his range. He finished 3-for-4 in field goals with a long of 52 yards, and was 2/2 for extra points.
Rob Bironas was a perfect 4-for-4 with a long of 47 yards and was 2/2 for extra points.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS:
The Steelers defense is in trouble. It plays very poorly on the road, and has multiple injury problems. The days of penciling the Steelers DST in your lineup on an every week basis is over. Only start this squad at home, and only against “very plus” match-ups.
The Titans defense is still not desirable in fantasy football.
GAME RECAP: The Titans did more to win the game than the Steelers did. The Titans aren’t as bad as many would think, but the Steelers are MUCH WORSE than their overall perception. It’ll be a long year for the Steeler Nation. Next up is a road trip against a division rival.
--Ryan Dickey (@ffbninja)
Giants vs 49ers Preview & Prediction
This is a big time rematch between the two NFC Championship game participants from a year ago. As a matter of a fact the Niners and Giants clashed against each other twice last season. The 49ers def
ense was able to stop Eli Manning from one of his miraculous 4th quarter comebacks in a regular season victory for the Niners . Then as we all remember the slug fest in San Francisco during the NFC title game where the 49ers special teams fumbled the game over to the visiting and eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants.
This is now the 3rd time in a calendar year that the Giants have to travel across country to play the 49ers in San Francisco. The Giants have been a much better road team than home recently so I don't factor the flight and hotel room as a relevant intangible in this particular contest. The Giants have been impressive this year despite a number of key injuries that always seem to plague this organization. Eli is at the top of his game again, which includes him throwing a few picks. That's something Giants fans have had to learn to live with. Victor Cruz is clearly no fluke from his pro bowl season a year ago and seems headed back again in 2012.
The defense however has had a very difficult time getting to the quarterback as apparently their "NASCAR" package has a flat tire. The Niners do a pretty good job of protecting the elusive Alex Smith so the Giants secondary will have to be on their game. Because let's face it, Smith is no longer a game manager, he's a game winner! I stand by what I've always said, that he can't consistently throw an accurate deep ball which is why I questioned the Randy Moss signing. But Smith doesn't need to throw deep. The Niners have the best short game in the league. By that I mean they throw quick timely routes and run the ball down your throat. Last week against the Bills, and I know it's the Bills, but San Fran still had over 300 yards passing and rushing. No not combined folks, over 300 yards a piece. The 49ers have quickly become one of the more balanced teams on offense.
We all know their defense is what got the Niners to where they are and if possible have even improved from last years record breaking season. In the past 2 games they've allowed only 3 points. Wow! They tackle better than any team in the NFL and are always where they're supposed to be to put themselves in the best position to make a play. They are a well disciplined, well oiled machine. The 49ers are very stingy at the line of scrimmage and punish any running back who dares challenge them. But the Giants will have to try and keep the Niners defense honest and at least attempt to run the ball. In order for New York to win this game it will have to be on the arm of Eli.
Eli Manning is now regarded as a top level, elite quarterback and he deserves it. He's clutch, he's smart, he's got a great arm and he doesn't get nervous. Or at least doesn't appear to be. He's an excellent QB and Victor Cruz is a fantastic wide receiver. That will be the match up to watch when the Niners stick Carlos Rogers who also made the pro bowl, on the Salsa dancing, Chunky soup eating, touchdown machine. Whoever wins that battle may have their team win the game. If the Niners are smart they'll play some cover 2 defense against Cruz and try to eliminate his quick route running ability.
Now we need a winner! The Niners will be able to run the ball which will open up play action to Crabtree and Davis. San Fran should be able to move the ball consistently against the Giants underachieving defense. The Giants will most likely not be able to run the ball from under center so they will substitute the ground game with a few screen passes and occasional draw plays from shot gun. In the end I think the Niners are still a bit mad about last season and will take their frustrations out on the visiting G-Men. I just think the 49ers defense is too tough and their offense can all of a sudden score points. The Niners get their revenge this Sunday.
Voting?
should i go off the votes beside the boss ratings or on the players
Week 6 Rankings, Which Matchups to Exploit, Which to Avoid
Week 6 sees 4 teams on bye, Carolina, Chicago, Jacksonville and New Orleans, but what about everyone else? How do your RB matchups look this week? What rank rush defense are they facing? What about
your quarterback, is he facing a stingy secondary that allows less than 200 yards passing or one that leaks like a sieve and gives up over 320 yards a game? Lets look at each position and see which matchups you can exploit in week 6.
The charts below read as follows Defense Rank vs Position (QB, RB, WR) Team Name, Opponent, Team Studs, Matchups to watch.
Defenses with a rank of 28 are the worst and are giving up the most points to the position. Defenses with 1 are the best and giving up the fewest points to the position.
First, lets look at the QB’s and who has a favorable matchup vs a tough one.
28 Redskins vs Vikings ---> Ponder
27 Patriots vs Seahawks ---> Wilson
26 Browns vs Bengals ---> Dalton (++)
25 Bills vs Cardinals ---> Kolb
24 Titans vs Pittsburgh ---> Roethlisberger (++)
23 Raiders vs Falcons ---> Ryan (++)
22 Chargers vs Broncos ---> Peyton Manning (+)
21 Packers vs Texans ---> Schaub (+)
20 Buccaneers vs Chiefs ---> Quinn
19 Colts vs Jets ---> Sanchez, Tebow
18 Dolphins vs Rams ---> Bradford
17 Giants vs 49ers ---> Smith
16 Chiefs vs Buccaneers ---> Freeman
15 Broncos vs Chargers ---> Rivers
14 Steelers vs Titans ---> Hasselbeck
13 Bengals vs Browns ---> Weeden
12 Vikings vs Redskins ---> RGIII
11 Lions vs Eagles ---> Vick
10 Cardinals vs Bills ---> Fitzpatrick
9 Texans vs Packers ---> Rodgers (-)
8 Jets vs Colts ---> Luck
7 Falcons vs Raiders ---> Palmer
6 Eagles vs Lions ---> Stafford (-)
5 Ravens vs Cowboys ---> Romo (-)
4 Cowboys vs Ravens ---> Flacco (-)
3 49ers vs Giants ---> Eli (-2)
2 Rams vs Dolphins ---> Tannehill
1 Seahawks vs Patriots ---> Brady (-2)
It should be no surprise that the Redskins have the worst ranked defense against QBs, Ponder is no more than a bye week fill but you can’t beat his matchup. Andy Dalton gets the 26th worst defense playing the Browns who give up an average of 21 points to QBs. Roethlisberger and Ryan get the number 24 and 23 worst defenses so expect nice numbers this week. On the flip side, Stafford, Romo and Flacco get the 6th, 5th and 4th best defenses this week, temper expectations. Eli and Brady have the toughest sledding this week. Eli plays the 49ers 3rd best defense against the QB and Brady draws Seattle’s number 1 ranked defense against the QB position. While you’re not benching these guys, don’t expect much.
Next up, the backbone of every fantasy team, the running backs.
28 Bills vs Cardinals ---> Powell
27 Jets vs Colts ---> Ballard
26 Raiders vs Falcons ---> Turner (++)
25 Bengals vs Browns ---> Richarson (++)
24 Titans vs Pittsburgh ---> Mendenhall (+)
23 Colts vs Jets ---> Greene
22 Chiefs vs Buccaneers ---> Martin (+)
21 Falcons vs Raiders ---> McFadden (+)
20 Browns vs Bengals ---> Green-Ellis
19 Ravens vs Cowboys ---> Murray (+)
18 Rams vs Dolphins ---> Bush
17 Broncos vs Chargers ---> Mathews (+)
16 Chargers vs Broncos ---> McGahee
15 Giants vs 49ers ---> Gore
14 Cowboys vs Ravens ---> Rice
13 Packers vs Texans ---> Foster
12 Steelers vs Titans ---> Johnson
11 Buccaneers vs Chiefs ---> Charles
10 Eagles vs Lions ---> LeShoure (-)
9 Redskins vs Vikings ---> Peterson (-)
8 Patriots vs Seahawks ---> Lynch (-)
7 Texans vs Packers ---> Green
6 Dolphins vs Rams ---> Jackson
5 Cardinals vs Bills ---> Jackson, Spiller
4 Lions vs Eagles ---> McCoy (-)
3 Seahawks vs Patriots ---> Ridley (-2)
2 Vikings vs Redskins ---> Morris (-2)
1 49ers vs Giants ---> Bradshaw (-2)
Powell and Ballard, two popular waiver pickups this week have the best matchups facing the 28th and 27th worst ranked defense against running backs. Turner gets the Raiders 26th worst defense allowing a combined 183 yards rushing/receiving to running backs. Richardson and Mendenhall have great matchups as well facing the Bengals and Titans respectively, each defense gives up 23 points to opposing running backs. Some lynchpin studs get tough matchups this week starting with Peterson and Lynch who face the Redskins and Patriots defenses. Both give up less than 14 points to opposing running backs. I think McCoy can exploit his matchup despite the Lions ranking high against the run but Ridley and Morris are a different story. Ridley faces the Seahawks while Morris draws the Vikings, both defenses are allowing less than 10 points to running backs and the Vikings have not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Don’t expect a repeat of Bradshaw’s 200-yard rushing performance from last week. He faces the 49ers number 1 ranked defense who has not allowed a rushing TD through 5 games and allows fewer than 60 yards rushing per game.
On to the wide outs where we’ll see some similarities to the defense vs QB ranks…
28 Redskins vs Vikings ---> Harvin (++)
27 Browns vs Bengals ---> AJ Green (++)
26 Buccaneers vs Chiefs ---> Bowe (++)
25 Bills vs Cardinals ---> Fitzgerald, Roberts
24 Colts vs Jets ---> Kerley
23 Giants vs 49ers ---> Crabtree
22 Patriots vs Seahawks ---> Tate
21 Chargers vs Broncos ---> Thomas, Decker (+)
20 Dolphins vs Rams ---> Gibson, Quick
19 Raiders vs Falcons ---> White, Jones (+)
18 Packers vs Texans ---> Johnson
17 Cardinals vs Bills ---> Johnson
16 Broncos vs Chargers ---> Floyd, Meachem
15 Titans vs Pittsburgh ---> Wallace, Brown
14 Ravens vs Cowboys ---> Bryant, Austin
13 Eagles vs Lions ---> Johnson, Young, Burleson
12 Steelers vs Titans ---> Britt, Washington
11 Chiefs vs Buccaneers ---> Jackson, Williams
10 Vikings vs Redskins ---> Garcon
9 Lions vs Eagles ---> Jackson, Maclin
8 Bengals vs Browns ---> Little, Cribbs
7 Seahawks vs Patriots ---> Welker, Llyod (-)
6 Rams vs Dolphins ---> Hartline
5 Jets vs Colts ---> Wayne, Avery (-)
4 Cowboys vs Ravens ---> Smith, Boldin (-)
3 Falcons vs Raiders ---> Moore
2 Texans vs Packers ---> Nelson, Jones, Cobb (-)
1 49ers vs Giants ---> Cruz, Hixon (-2)
Harvin, AJ Green and Bowe draw the worst defenses against wide receivers each allowing over 240 yards and 33 points to opposing wide outs. Expect big games out of each of these guys with Bowe being the possible exception as he has a new QB in Brady Quinn and most of his scoring has come during junk time. Thomas and Decker draw the middle of the road Chargers defense ranked 21st that have allowed 8 TDs through 5 games. Welker and Lloyd get the Seahawks 7th ranked defense against wide outs. Through 5 games Seattle’s defense has only surrendered 3 TD’s through the air. Wayne may come back to earth facing the Jets while Smith and Boldin will see tough sledding again facing the Cowboys secondary. Nelson, Jones and Cobb face the Texans second ranked defense but expect a fair amount of scoring in this matchup so I’d still have high hopes here. Lastly Cruz and Hixon face the 49ers number one ranked defense that has only surrendered 1 receiving TD to wide outs through 5 games. I don’t think we’ll see too much salsa dancing this week in San Francisco.
Enjoy fantasy bosses, I hope this helps make some line up decisions easier. Follow me on twitter @tmcdannell and best of luck in week 6!
Steelers vs Titans from a Fantasy Perspective
Steelers vs Titans from a Fantasy Perspective
Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night in Tennessee as the Titans host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Four teams have bye weeks in Week 6
- The Bears, Saints, Panthers, and Jaguars.
Here’s a look at players from both teams in the Thursday night game’s match-up from a fantasy perspective:
QUARTERBACKS:
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)--Big Ben needs 300 yards to surpass Terry Bradshaw as the all-time Steelers leader in passing yards. The Titans defense is porous, (ranked 29th overall, 25th vs the pass, averaging 279.6
yds/gm) and the Steelers can throw and catch the ball. Although he may not have been a top-10 drafted QB, Roethlisberger should be a starter for most fantasy teams, and an excellent bye-week replacement for Drew Brees or Cam Newton owners. Look for him to top 300 yards, with 3 passing TDs.
Matt Hasselbeck (TEN)--If you have Matt Hasselbeck as your starting fantasy quarterback, you must have a.) serious bye-week issues, or b.) you are very bad at fantasy football. Hasselbeck will start again,
with Jake Locker out. In his two starts this year, Hasselbeck is 49-79 for 436 yards, 3TDs and 3INTs. You can do much better here.
RUNNING BACKS:
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)--Mendenhall made his 2012 debut against the Eagles, putting up 101 total yards and a TD. With a short week (Mendenhall was limited in practice Tuesday) look for the
Steelers to continue to use a running back-by-committee for one more week before featuring Mendenhall next week in an important division game at Cincinnati. Look for about 20 touches. Start him if you have Matt Forte on a bye week.
Isacc Redman (PIT)--Redman should see his final week of major importance in the Steelers offense this week (barring further injury to Mendenhall). He should only be used if you have injury or bye week issues. Look for him to split
carries this week, and then become strictly a handcuff.
Chris Johnson (TEN)--The man formerly known as CJ2K has no touchdowns on the season. Two Chicago Bears defensive players (Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs) each have two. In his last 21 games, Johnson is averaging 3.75 yards per carry and has scored 4 TDs. The line is not blocking and he is not running. Unless you have absolutely no other options, Johnson is a “sit”, even against a Steelers defense missing Polamalu and
Woodley.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
Mike Wallace (PIT)--Mike Wallace was blanketed by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie last week against the Eagles, and had only two catches for 17 yards on 8 targets. He bobbled a possible big-gainer and a potential TD pass. This week, he is slated to be a top producing fantasy WR. Look for “60 Minutes” to
eclipse the 100 yard mark, and score at least one long TD pass.
Antonio Brown (PIT)--Leading the team with 10 targets last week and for the season, Brown is a must-start every week. He had 7 catches for 86 yards last week, and can be expected to match or surpass those numbers in a “plus” match-up against the Titans.
Emmanuel Sanders (PIT)--Sanders should only be started by teams that have injury or bye-week issues, namely for Brandon Marshall or Marques Colston owners.
Kenny Britt (TEN)--Kenny Britt may finally have his first
“complete game” against the Steelers, but may be matched up with Ike Taylor. With the absence of Polamalu and Woodley, and Harrison not being at 100%, and the Steelers possibly putting up a high score total, Kenny Britt may have a big game, especially in “garbage time”. He and Hasselbeck have a history together. Start Britt confidently as a WR3.
Nate Washington (TEN) and
Kendall Wright (TEN)--Only start these guys if you have serious injury or bye week issues. Wright leads the team in targets, and is the prefered receiver of the two.
TIGHT ENDS:
Heath Miller (PIT)--No tight end has more TDs than Heath Miller this year (4 in 4 games, tied with 4 others who have played 5 games). Miller isn’t targeted as much as other tight ends in the league, but is third overall for the Steelers. He is a decent start against the Titans. Look for 40 to 50 yards and a TD.
Jared Cook (TEN)--Cook is a shaky start against the Steelers, although there is potential for him to get “garbage time” fantasy points like he
did last week at Minnesota. Cook has held off the stat sheet for three quarters, then put up 5 catches for 37 yards and a 10-yard TD in the fourth when Tennessee was down 23. You can do better than Cook.
KICKERS:
Shaun Suisham (PIT) and
Rob Bironas (TEN)--If you are reading this, you have too much time on your hands. Fantasy kickers are, and always will be, a crap-shoot on a week-to-week basis.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS:
Steelers--As mentioned, the Steelers defense will have some holes with Polamalu and Woodley out, and Harrison not 100%. In two road games this year, the Steelers have not “closed out” a game and have given up 30+ points. With a short week, injuries, and a poor road history, the Steelers are NOT a strong fantasy play. You could do better.
Titans--You do not have the Titans as a fantasy defense/special teams. If you do, pick up
the Dolphins, or Rams. And get a fantasy basketball magazine. Try that instead.
GAME PREDICTION: STEELERS 31-Titans 14
--Ryan Dickey (@ffbninja)
Top 10 "All Player" Ranking for week 6
1. Arian Foster | RB | Houston Texans-Foster is showing why he was the number one pick in most leagues. What helps him top this list is not only the play of the Texans line and his play, but a minor i
njury to Ben Tate. He matches up nicely against a Packers defense that has had trouble against premier runners dating back to last year.
2. Percy Harvin | WR| Minnesota Vikings-I love this match-up this week. Harvin is a threat to score in multiple way and faces the defense that has giving the most passing yards to receivers all year in the Redskins. Harvin should have an easy 20 point game in even non-point per reception leagues. Harvin has been a top 3 fantasy receiver since mid-last year and has kept up his play so far this year.
3. Ben Roethlisberger | QB | Pittsburgh Steelers-This is a matchup I love on Thursday night. The Titans have allowed the most points in the league at 32 points per game. They don’t have anyone that can stay with Mike Wallace or Antonio Brown, who should both have nice games, but I see Roethlisberger as the big beneficiary of it all with over 300 passing yards and 3+ touchdowns this week.
4. DeMarco Murray | RB | Dallas Cowboys-The cowboys are coming off a bye week and Murray has yet to get going effectively in the ground game, minus the huge run he had against the New York Giants week one. The Ravens defense isn’t what it used to be, as you saw Jamaal Charles tear the defense up for 140+ yards last week. Murray should topple the 100 yard mark on the ground and is an effective receiver in the passing game which makes him a big time favorite for me this week.
5. Matt Ryan |QB | Atlanta Falcons-Ryan has been a top 5 fantasy quarterback all year and he’ll stay in there with another good performance against the Raiders. The Raiders secondary is questionable at best, as Peyton Manning tore through them before the bye week. Ryan got back in sync with Julio Jones the past week and I think both have a big week as they easily handle the Raiders.
6. Frank Gore | RB | San Francisco 49ers-Gore has continued to be an immediate fantasy starter on a weekly basis but I think he finds himself as a big time contributor against the Giants. They let Trent Richardson run wild against them, but the Browns defense wasn't the caliber of the 49ers. San Francisco relies heavily on the run and will lean on Gore who should come up big on Sunday.
7. Peyton Manning | QB | Denver Broncos-Manning has been on an absolute tear the last three games passing for over 300 yards in 2 touchdowns in each game. He comes up against the Chargers who just allowed Brees to get his first win of the season. The Chargers corners just won’t be able to compete with the Broncos receiving corps, so I expect another 300 yard 3+ touchdown game from Manning who leads his Broncos into the lead for the AFC West crown.
8. Julio Jones | WR | Atlanta Falcons-Just like I said earlier, I don’t see any way that the Raiders slow down the Falcons offense, and in particular Julio. He went absent for three weeks but reconnected with Ryan last week for 10 catches. I think he’ll be back to his monster numbers this week and will make fantasy owners very happy with 100+ yards and a multiple touchdown game.
9. Trent Richardson | RB | Cleveland Browns- Richardson looked great last year but the defense couldn't slow down the Giants which forced them to get away from him on the ground. With Haden back at corner, the Browns defense should step up to play the state rival Bengals. I think Richardson has the best game of his young professional career and leads the Browns to their first victory of the season.
10. Mike Wallace | WR | Pittsburgh Steelers-If someone is going to benefit from Roethlisberger’s big week this week I think it’s going to be Wallace. By this week the two should be back on track to put up big numbers and I see a big game from Wallace. He has too much speed for the Titans defense and will get them on multiple big plays this week as the Steelers take care of business on Thursday night.
Week 6-Tight End & Defense Plug & Plays/Options
Jermichael Finley-It seems for about two years, people in the fantasy football world have been awaiting the realization of Finley's potential as a consistent fantasy producer. That day still has not c
ome. Finley is a product of a spread-the-wealth Packer offense, but also deserves his share of the blame for not living up to expectations. Until further notice, Finley is no longer a top 5 option. Let's see some consistency before we put him in our weekly top 5 rankings. If you have another strong option such as a Rudolph, Heather MIller or even an Owen Daniels, I'd seriously consider the highly inconsistent Finley.
Play-Sit or Start in deeper leagues
Brandon Pettigrew-Speaking of unrealized potential, I'm betting this is the week we finally see a breakthrough game from the Detroit on-again off-again tight end. He's seeing plenty of targets, and everyone is aware of the shortcomings of the Lion offense this season to date. I think this is the week we wee a Pettigrew breakout game with 75-90 receiving yards and a TD.
Play-Start
Seattle (DEF) Despite what we've seen so far from an impressive Seattle defenive unit, I'd sit them this week against a clicking New England offense. They may intercept a ball or force a fumble at home, but I don't see them stopping Brady from a points allowed stand point. Play-Bench
Miami(DEF) The St. Louis Ram's offense has looked downright awful on the road this season, and Miami is in need of a big win at home here. I expect them to force 2-3 turnovers and allow less than 20 points scored. If they're available on your wire to for a plug and play, snatch them up this week for some solid production.
Play-Add/Start
This, That, and 5 Other Things I Learned from Week 5
I’m lazy. In fact I love doing nothing so much that I’ll work as hard as possible to get a job done as quickly as I can. Some people say I’m a master of efficiency. Others would tell you I'm simply
too lazy to fail.
One of the things that has improved my productivity over the years is writing lists. I find lists help me do a better job of tracking my goals, accomplishing tasks, and writing fantasy football articles.
It seems to be working for Matthew Berry. - http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=TMR120816
Apparently Matthew isn’t as lazy as I am. Either that or he gets paid way more per word than I do. In any event I’m sticking to 5 lists of 5. I’m keeping it short and sweet. I’m aiming quality over quantity my friends.
5 different Tight Ends have caught touchdown passes vs. the Titans this year:
1. Aaron Hernandez (Week 1) - 59 yards & 1 TD
2. Rob Gronkowski (Week 1) - 60 yards & 1 TD
3. Dante Rosario (Week 2) - 48 yards & 3 TD
4. Owen Daniels (Week 4) - 72 yards & 1 TD
5. Kyle Rudolph (Week 5) - 23 yards & 1 TD
The Titans have given up the most points to opposing tight ends this year. They’ve allowed 41 catches, 420 receiving yards, and 7 TDs in 5 games.
The Steelers play the Titans on Thursday night and all signs point towards Pittsburgh’s TE Heath Miller having a huge fantasy day. Miller (58.5% ESPN, 70% Yahoo) is one of the best bye week options for Jimmy Graham owners. He has averaged 42.5 ypg and has 4 TDs in 4 games. It’s Miller time!
My Shortlist for the Victor Cruz - WR Zombie of the Year Award
Every year some no name wide receiver goes undrafted in our fantasy leagues and then emerges as a one of the elite pass catchers in the game. Last year it was Victor Cruz. In 2010 it was Brandon Lloyd and back in 2009 we saw Miles Austin rise from the fantasy dead.
Here’s my current running order for this season’s WR Zombie of the Year:
1. James Jones (GB) - You may think that his production is solely a function of Greg Jennings’s absence, but Jones is the real deal. He has been targeted 30 times this season, catching 20 passes for 237 yards. Five of Aaron Rodgers’s 11 touchdown passes have gone to Jones this year. No other Packer has more than one (Ben Chodos - BleacherReport.com).
2. Randall Cobb (GB) - Green Bay is trying its best to mimic what the Vikings are doing with Percy Harvin. Through 5 games Cobb has 22 catches, 244 yards receiving, and 1 TD. He also returned a punt for a touchdown and has 48 yards rushing. I expect the Packers to target him more often going forward because Aaron Rodgers has a passer rating of 158.3 when he throws Cobb’s way. (ProFootballFocus.com)
3. Brian Hartline (MIA) - I’m not buying all of the hype just yet, but you can’t argue with his numbers. Seven of his 29 receptions have been for 20+ yards and he leads the league in receiving yards (514). I just need to see more consistency and a few more touchdowns before he takes this year’s title.
4. Andrew Hawkins (CIN) - It must be nice having A.J. Green around to distract opposing defensive backs. It doesn’t hurt having Andy Dalton throwing you the ball either. Hawkins has 20 receptions, 294 yards, and 2 TD from 32 targets this season. I expect him to make a name for himself against the Browns this week. Hawkins had 56 receiving yards and a touchdown when Cincinnati played Cleveland back in Week 2.
5. Josh Gordon (CLE) - Speaking of Cleveland. You don’t have to play for a good team to win WR Zombie of the Year. You don’t even have to have a good QB throwing you the ball. What helps is making the most of the opportunities you receive and Josh Morgan knows all about that. Last week against the Giants, the Browns’ supplemental draft choice out of Baylor caught two balls for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Keep your eye on Gordon. He looks hungry.
5 QB’s with Week 7 Byes:
1. Matt Ryan - Atlanta
2. Peyton Manning - Denver
3. Philip Rivers - Sand Diego
4. Michael Vick - Philadelphia
5. Ryan Tannehill - Miami
I know Kansas City has a bye week too, but who’s worried about replacing Matt Cassel (Oh yeah, the Chiefs).
Pat yourself on the back if you selected Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning in this year’s draft. I’m guessing most of you have a playoff spot well within your reach.
If Philip Rivers or Michael Vick was your first choice at quarterback, I’m hoping you’ve already established a contingency plan.
Ryan Tannehill enters the discussion because he’s on a bye during Week 7 too.
Why am I mentioning all of this a week in advance?
Because you may be competing with as many as four other fantasy owners for a bye week fill in and there aren’t many favorable match-ups to choose from.
My recommendation is to acquire Colts rookie Andrew Luck. Sure he may sound like some weird cross between Napoleon Dynamite and Andre the Giant, but the kid can throw the ball. Last I checked you don’t get fantasy points for Subway sandwich endorsements.
Indianapolis plays the Browns Week 7 and Cleveland is giving up the 6th most points to opposing quarterback this season. Through 5 games the Browns have allowed an average of 299.8 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game.
Andrew Luck has attempted 45+ passes in 3 of his first four NFL games. If he is still available in your league (75% ESPN, 81% Yahoo), look to pick him up before the start of the Week 6.
Timing is Everything - 5 Players that You’ll Pay Too Much For:
1. Payton Manning - Remember when you passed him up on draft day because of that whole neck thing? Well after putting up 345 yards and 3 TDs against the Patriots last week, there’s no way you’re upgrading your QB without paying a premium.
2. Frank Gore - 471 total yards and 4 TDs is worthy of a first round draft selection. Too bad most of us passed him by in the first 3 or 4 rounds of our drafts. Unless you’re looking to acquire Kendall Hunter, you likely won’t be trading for a 49ers RB anytime soon.
3. Ryan Mathews - If you didn’t make your move when Mathews was injured earlier this year or after he “lost” his starting role following Week 4 you missed the boat. The dust from Jackie Battle has settled. 139 total yards and a touchdown should be enough to have Ryan Mathews’s name listed at #1 on the Chargers’ depth chart heading into Week 6.
4. Wes Welker - You have a slim chance at landing Welker in a non-PPR league, but I wouldn’t make a deal before Aaron Hernandez returns from his ankle injury. Until then fantasy owners will have to forget trading for the guy we all thought was on his way out of the Patriots organization just a few weeks ago.
5. Marques Colston - His first three games of the 2012 season were less than desirable for his fantasy owners (10 catches, 160 total yards, 0 TD). In his last two games Colston has nearly doubled these figures (18 catches, 284 yards, 4 TD). You could have easily pried Colston out of the hands of his owner two weeks ago, now your likely paying a price similar to what you’d pay for Roddy White or Brandon Marshall.
On the flip side, the Saints are on a bye this week. If you can package Colston with another RB3/WR3 and land either one of these guys I’d make the trade.
5 Buy-Low Trade Candidates:
1. DeMarco Murray ran the ball 20 times for 131 yards in the 2012 NFL season opener against the Giants. Since that game Murray has only gained 106 yards on 41 carries. Murray was supposed to be a Top 10 RB this season. Unfortunately he has many touchdowns as he does 20+ yards rushes this year. One.
Reason: “He’s faced four top-12 defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. That includes two of the top four.” - @StatManJ (BleacherReport.com)
Place a feeler bet out there. If you don’t feel like you’re getting a good price, wait another week. The Cowboys play the Ravens this Sunday. After that I expect the DeMarco Murray market to begin its recovery.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off of a stinker against the Bears last week and the Jaguars are on a bye this week. If MJD’s current owner is lacking depth at RB, nows a good time to test the market. “Five of the next seven defenses on MJD's schedule currently rank in the bottom-half of the league against the run.” - Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Fantasy Sports)
3. Chances are Brandon Lloyd’s fantasy owners are growing impatient. He only has 28 receptions, 321 yards, and 1 touchdown this year. Good news: the only Patriot with more targets than Lloyd (45) is Wes Welker (52).
You may be able to scare Brandon Lloyd’s current fantasy owner into selling-low with a tough matchup against the Seahawks coming up this week. They may not know that in two games against Seattle a year ago, when Lloyd was with St. Louis, he caught 10 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown.
4. Jeremy Maclin appears to be healthy. @ThePigskinGuy points out “that Maclin is the Eagles’ best overall receiver. He’s better than DeSean Jackson at running routes in the middle of the field, so he’ll see more targets most weeks, especially with Michael Vick not having time to throw behind Philadelphia’s porous offensive line.” - Thomas Casale (FantasySharks.com)
With games against Detroit, New Orleans, Washington, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Cincinnati coming up, you better make your move while this Eagle is still flying under the radar.
5. If I still trust Maclin, I must still believe in his quarterback. I’ll admit Michael Vick has been nothing short of awful for his fantasy owners this year, but you saw the schedule the Eagles have coming up. The upside is definitely there, but we’ve all seen what the downside risk looks like.
If I already had a decent option at QB, I wouldn’t mind making a low-ball offer to acquire Vick as my backup. Just remember that he’s part of the Week 7 QB bye crew that I mentioned earlier.
Thanks for reading and good luck in Week 6!
If you looking for more ways to improve your game, you can follow me on Twitter @GoProFS24 or stop by my blog www.goprofantasysports.com - "7 Reasons Why I Still Suck at Fantasy Football" and "What Can Standing Ovations Teach Us About Fantasy Sports?" were recently featured on www.fantasyrundown.com
Top 10 Things to Take from Week 5
Each week, I will discuss the Top 10 things to take from the week that was. The good, the bad, and the ugly will all be featured just to help you as a fantasy owner succeed.
1. Alex Smith
is the real deal.
For the past few weeks, the San Francisco offense has come alive. They were the first franchise to ever throw and run for over 300 yards in a game. A guy who was once thought of as being a guy who could not start for an NFL team is quickly turning into a guy that should start on your fantasy team.
2. The injury bug bites hard this week.
Through the first four weeks of the NFL there really hasn't been many major injuries. Of course Beanie Wells is out until November and Hakeem Nicks seems to be a week to week deal, but other than that, nothing too serious. Week five was a different story; two starting running backs (Cedric Benson and Ryan Williams) both got bad news, Benson out at least eight weeks and Williams done for the season. Bernard Scott, Brian Cushing, Danny Amendola, and Javon Ringer are all either out or more than likely out for the rest of the season.
3. Rashard Mendenhall is back.
Speaking of injuries, one guy returned from one with a bang in Week 5. Mendenhall rushed for 81 yards on just 14 carries and a touchdown. That couldn't have gone any better as his touches were kept at a minimum with maximum results. Feel free to start Mendenhall from here on out and kudos to the owners who had the foresight to draft him or pick him up before this breakout performance.
4. Reggie Wayne still has some left in the tank.
Coming into the season, Wayne was a Top-15 WR, but nobody could have really expected him to do what he is doing this year. It has a lot to do with his chemistry with rookie QB Andrew Luck. They have developed a great relationship rather quickly. Another thing is the Colts using Wayne not only on the outside, but also in the slot and all over the field allowing him to find the open spot in the defense.
5. Tebow Time could be coming soon
Mark Sanchez struggled once again in a Jets loss and at home. He heard boos throughout the second half, which put pressure not only on Sanchez, but also on Head Coach Rex Ryan. To be fair, Sanchez did show some positives and made some good throws, so it's not all on him. The lack of a run game in New York also contributes to the mediocre offense for the Jets. If this season is lost, look for Tebow to see more and more snaps.
6. Drew Brees is as consistent as they come.
Brees broke the longtime record of Johnny Unitas of most consecutive games with a touchdown pass. I have people downplaying the fact that the record is not that big of a deal, but if you take into consideration that five teams in the NFL didn't even find the end zone this week, it makes it a bit more of an impressive feat. Also, as a fantasy owner it's good to know that your QB is good enough for at least one touchdown throw week in and week out..
7. Atlanta might have the most potent offense in the NFL.
Matt Ryan is coming into his own and with all of the weapons he has at his disposal makes this a fun team to watch. The one drawback is it seems between Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, only two can have great games at a time. Jones and Gonzalez had solid games this past week, but the week before it was Gonzo and White. It is hard to project which guys will break out so all are worth starting every week.
8. Chris Johnson is no longer a must start.
I might be a week or two late on this, but last week's performance gave CJ2K's owners a little bit of hope. So, I imagine they started him again this week in hopes of him churning out another 100 yd game. What did he do? 24 yards on 15 carries with a fumble. That is not something owners want to worry about happening, especially since they have many other decisions to make every week. If one can find another owner to bite on Johnson's potential, go for it, if not just hold onto him in case he finally does live up to the hype.
9. The Bears and 49ers Defenses are head and shoulders better than anybody else.
The 49ers don't give up rushing yards or rushing TDs. The Bears turn turnovers into immediate points. Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman both have two touchdowns, and they are on defense. Every week they provide points and handle their business, making them by far, the two most valuable defenses in fantasy football.
10. Mike Shanahan might actually start the same Running Back all season.
One of the most frustrating people in fantasy football is Mike Shanahan, and he doesn't ever step on the field. That is because he has a tendency to just start whatever running back he feels like each week. On draft day, people either stay away from a Shanahan back, or try to guess who the starter is going to be. Alfred Morris has silenced all of that talk by putting up solid number every week. Expect him to continue to get the bulk in Washington
Arizona Cardinals Ryan Williams Season is Over
This week proved to end yet another players season, this time it was running back Ryan Williams (57% owned Yahoo) of the Arizona Cardinals. This just a short while after they placed Beanie Wells on th
e IR, but can return in November be it Week 12 or Week 13. Williams will require shoulder surgery to repair the AC Joint. The Cardinals ran the ball extremely well in the preseason using all of their backs but have struggled to gain yards on the ground after 5 games. They are the only team not gaining 3 yards per carry.
La'Rod Stephens-Howling (2%) and William Powell (2%) should split carries in the backfield, but Powell suffered a head injury and possible concussion last week so he might not be available this week. If so, Alfonso Smith (0%) should get in the mix in the backfield.
Avoid Jackie Battle (60%) and Andre Brown (64%) who will be listed on the top 25 RB list as Battle is giving way to Ryan Mathews and Andre Brown is injured and Ahmad Bradshaw proved healthy and capable of carrying the ball 30 times.
Alex Green (7%) of the Green Bay Packers will be the most popular waiver wire move this week as fellow RB Cedric Benson (82%) was also injured and is ruled out of next weeks contest against the Houston Texans. DO NOT GO THERE EITHER! Even if Benson missing Week 7 they are facing a surprisingly tough St. Louis Rams defense that week.
Brandon Bolden (38%) of the New England Patriots followed his his 100+ yard debut with a 3.9 YPC taking 14 rushes for 54 yards. It is clear that the Patriots are sticking with the ground game but they have a matchup against a tough Seattle Seahawks defense and is not the WORST play on a rough BYE week.
Look for Rashard Mendenhall (78%) and Donald Brown (70%) you might get lucky and be in a league where no one added either back. Mendenhall against the Titans is a dream matchup and Brown against the Jets is not terrible. Otherwise you are better off making a trade!
Next week the Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars all have BYE weeks so there will be A TON of roster moves made and you should take advantage!
Let us know how you replace Ryan Williams and/or Cedric Benson!
RB's: Start, Bench, Trade, Add, and Drop
RB's to start: 1. Ahmad Bradshaw, 2. Ryan Mathews, 3. Rashard Mendenhall, 4. Donald Brown, and 5. Brandon Bolden. Obviously Ahmad Bradshaw had a big game against the Browns rushing for 200 yards wit
h one TD. There was a lot of doubt after his return from injury on how productive he would be, especially if he split carries with Andre Brown. Brown is a non-factor and Bradshaw if the featured RB once again in the Giants backfield. Ryan Matthews' health issues are always a concern, but finally he had the game that owners are looking for. Twelve carries for eighty yards with a score, and six catches for fifty-nine yards. Barring any health setbacks, Matthews is a no-brainer to start every week. Mendenhall's first game of 2012 was impressive against a good defense in the Philadelphia Eagles. Fourteen carries for eighty-one yards with a TD and two catches for twenty yards. He is the difference maker for the Steelers offense, and will be featured plenty over the next twelve games. Donald Brown has had a pretty good season, but still isn't being started on a weekly basis (I have sat him every week). Seventeen carries for eighty-four yards with a two-point conversion is equal to the type of consistent season he's had. A solid RB2 and Flex option for any lineup. The Patriots are hit or miss when it comes to the running game, but Bolden has to be considered at the Flex position week-to-week. One hundred ninety-one yards on thirty carries the last two weeks, a solid option if Ridley isn't performing for the Patriots.
RB's to Drop: 1. Andre Brown, 2. Jonathan Stewart, 3. Kevin Smith, 4. Daniel Thomas, 5. DeAngelo Williams. Since going off against the Panthers in week three, Brown has five carries for fourteen yards in the two weeks since. With Bradshaw back, bye-bye Brown. The Panthers running game is not living up to expectations and Stewart has had health issues. One-hundred and seven yards on twenty-five carries for the season is not enough production, even for a desperate bye week fill-in. With the exception of the 2011 season, Smith's health concerns are back for the Lions and his fantasy owners. Despite twenty points in week one, Smith isn't worth the gamble even when he returns to the field. Reggie Bush is back, and Lamar Miller will soon emerge as the second best RB in Miami and Thomas has been too hit or miss since week 1 last season. DeAngelo Williams will not be productive with Cam Newton and the Panther O-line struggling. Don't expect the running game to get any better, and leave a featured RB on the waiver wire list.
RB's to trade: 1. DeAngelo Williams, Steven Ridley, Shonn Greene, Darren McFadden, Steven Jackson. Before dropping DeAngelo, see if you can package him with a WR or QB to get a more solid option at RB. If no one bites, that's when you drop. Steven Ridley has been very good this year, but we all know the Patriots love to pass. His stock is real high right now, if you're not sure about starting him weekly, look for a desperate buyer. Just like all the elements of the Jets offense, Greene is a non-factor. You may not get much, but he's not doing much good wasting bench space. Darren McFadden is a dynamic player, but you can't be dynamic with a poor offensive line. Owners will buy the name rather than the production, sell high while you can. The Rams are letting Jackson go at the end of the season and would like to use him more as a third-down RB. With Daryl Richardson looking to take the reigns in St. Louis, Jackson's production will be down significantly.
RB's to Bench: 1. DeMarco Murray, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Cedric Benson. Murray is a product of having a horrible O-line that can't block for him, leaving him with minimal value. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are both products of being on a bad team with a bad QB, temper expectations with any Bills player for the year. Green-Ellis was over-valued to start the season, and now it's being proven. Cedric Benson isn't the RB that could relieve pressure off Aaron Rodgers and the Packer pass attack. With the lack of carries, fumbles are also a huge concern.
RB's to Add: 1. Brandon Bolden, Jackie Battle, Pierre Thomas, David Wilson, Jacquizz Rodgers. Bolden has been solid for two consecutive weeks and has great big-play potential. Jackie Battle's touches will slowly decrease, but grab him if he's still available in case Mathew's injury woes continue. The Saints are still looking to run, when it does finally happen Pierre Thomas will be the RB to break it open. David Wilson is great for PPR leagues due to the PR/KR value. Jacquizz Rodgers doesn't get the ball a lot, but his versatility and speed can easily find him the endzone when he does get his hands on the ball.
10 Observations About Your Studs You Need Know Through Week 5
Julio Jones and Roddy White are the best wide receiver tandem in the game, period. They might also be the most frustrating to own from week to week. Today the Redskins rolled coverage toward White w
ho saw double teams or a deep safety most of the day. As a result Jones was the beneficiary with 10 grabs for 94 yards and a score while White hauled in 4 for 68 yards. Last week these stats were flipped with White hauling in 8 for 169 and two scores while Jones only had 1 catch for 30 yards. I think Whites floor is higher due to his long history with Ryan but don’t be surprised to see these two players swap stats from week to week.
Percy Harvin is a bigger threat to Adrian Peterson’s value than you might have thought. Peterson rushed 17 times for 88 yards today averaging 5.2 yards per tote. However when the Vikings got deep in the red zone, they didn’t look to pound the ball in with AP they way the used too, instead they looked toward Harvin. In the first quarter the Vikings had 1st and goal on the 4-yard line. They lined up Harvin, not Peterson, in the backfield and he took it in for the score, a TD that would have been AP’s in seasons past. A similar scenario unfolded in the 3rd quarter when Harvin took a 10 yard pass from Ponder, made 2 defenders miss, and ran in for a score. While the Vikings wouldn’t usually look to Peterson on 3rd and 5, the fact that Harvin’s ability is rising and he is able to convert means there might be fewer opportunities for Peterson in the future.
Demaryius Thomas has clearly won the number 1 spot in Denver and Decker is a distant number 2. Thomas had 9 grabs for 188 yards while Decker only had 4 for 21 today vs. New England. Decker was able to haul in a back shoulder TD late in the 3rd quarter when New England was well in control 31 to 7, but its clear DT is the Denver wide out to own. In PPR formats Decker and Thomas are closer but I’d still rather own Thomas. When the game is not out of hand, Manning looks to Thomas. When they get in the red zone, Peyton looks all over the place with TDs going to Joel Dressen and Stokley. Look for Thomas’ TD count to increase as his value rises through the season.
Steven Ridley could be the 2010 version of Arian Foster if Belicheck gave him the chance. Through 5 games he has 490 yards rushing on 102 attempts for a 4.8-yard average. He also has 4 touchdowns, but he could have so many more. This week Shane Vereen and Tom Brady both logged 1-yard TD runs, instead of Ridley. Last week Brandon Bolden took one in from the 7 yard line while week 3 saw Danny Woodhead and Bolden each take one in from inside the 3-yard line. If all that production went to Ridley he’d have 9 TD’s and over 500 yards rushing on the season, easily grabbing fantasy’s top scorer for 2012. Keep expectations high and as long as Ridley doesn’t start fumbling, his production looks like it might actually go up.
Staying in New England, Wes Welker is just fine, for now. Week 5 saw Welker haul in his highest reception total of the year logging 13 catches for 104 yards and a score. His receptions have steadily increased from week one hitting, 3, 5, 8, 9 then 13. However, Aaron Hernandez has been out since week 2 and when he returns, Welker should see his production reduced. Hernandez practiced last week doing individual drills and was expected to miss the Denver game however he might be back for next week’s game against Seattle. In PPR formats, Welker might fall from a number 2 to a flex, but in standard scoring you might look at selling high before Hernandez comes back and cuts into his production.
Michael Vick is no longer an every week starter. Week 5 saw Vick continue to struggle with his ball control issues. He fumbled two more times, one coming on the 2 yard line as he was attempting a run in for a score, an eight point swing in most leagues. Through 5 weeks Vick has 6 interceptions and 5 fumbles lost. Vicks legs used to bail him out of average fantasy passing days but the rushing yards are down and the turnovers are up. Coming into this week he was the 16th ranked QB in standard scoring behind such notables as Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco. Its very likely you have one of these other signal callers on your roster and you should review each week and play the better match up.
Jordy Nelson is not the same without Greg Jennings in the game. Week 5 saw yet another sub par performance from Nelson in what looked like a good matchup vs. the Colts. In a game where Rodgers threw 3 TDs and 243 yards, Nelson only snagged two balls for 29 yards. Through 5 weeks Nelson has only eclipsed 65 yards receiving twice and has only 1 TD on the season. Last year he took many teams by surprise but this year teams are rolling coverage his direction especially when Jennings has been injured or out and Nelson has not been up to the task. I’m bullish on Nelson long term as Green Bay started very slow this year but if Rodgers starts getting hot and Nelson’s stats don’t improve, he moves from a WR2 to a WR3 and is not a guaranteed every week start.
Maurice Jones-Drew is going to struggle a lot this year. In week 5 Jacksonville fell behind to Chicago early and that all but removed the run from their game plan. Through 5 weeks MJD has eclipsed 13 carries only twice and amassed more than 75 yards rushing only twice. Receiving yards are down for MJD as well as he only has 88 yards through 5 games on 14 receptions. Blain Gabbert is not helping by throwing for less than 160 yards a game so defenses can easily key in on the run when MJD does get his chances. Jacksonville’s schedule is not going to get any easier playing @ Oakland, @ Green Bay, home Detroit, home Indy and @ Houston. The Jags will probably be playing from behind in most of these games and that has not been good for MJD this year, adjust accordingly.
Its official, AJ Green is matchup proof. Green grabbed 9 balls for 65 yards in week 5 and hauled in his 4th TD on the year. The score came on a short corner route where Green made an easy over the shoulder catch. That makes 4 consecutive games of Green and Dalton connecting for a TD. While The Bengals first 5 opponents haven’t been great against the pass, their upcoming schedule looks just as juicy. If Joe Haden returns next week against the Browns, that could be the toughest matchup in the next 6 as the Bengals face @ Browns, home Steelers, home Broncos, home Giants, @ The Chiefs then home Oakland. All of these are good matchups for Green and his production should continue to stay high. If you can get him in a trade, now’s the time.
ACL tears just aren’t what the used to be, and that’s a great thing. Jamaal Charles tore his ACL last year in week 2 and shows absolutely no signs of being out of football for a year. Against Baltimore in week 5 Charles eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage for the 3rd time this season and bested 160 yards for the second time. Through 5 games he has 551 yards rushing and 118 yards receiving with 3 total touchdowns. Charles is an official, “set it and forget it” player and we’re all happy to see that after last year. Rashard Mendenhall was back for the first time since January 2012 and showed no ill effects from his ACL tear. He rushed for 81 yards and a score while adding 2 receptions for 20 yards. Mendenhall never had the same elite level talent that Charles poses but it seems clear rehabbing an ACL tear is not what is used to be. Pittsburgh next three matchups are @ Tennessee, @ Bengals and home to Washington. All of these three can be run on and after what Mendenhall showed this week, he’s back as an RB2 barring any set backs.
Follow me on twitter @tmcdannell and good luck finishing up this weeks matchups, hopefully you’re not facing Foster Monday night!
AFC South Quick Outs for Week 5
3 Fantasy Muffs
• Andre Johnson- Still a must start, but showing some wear on the tires.
• Matt Hasselbeck- in a relief effort he made fans call for Rusty Smith
• MJD- Price you pay f
or being the only real weapon.
3 Fantasy Locks
• Chuck Pagano- Thoughts and prayers to his family in his battle with Cancer.
• Arian Foster- unless he gets hurt he will never leave the Locks.
• Reggie Wayne- Luck’s guy and he gets a lot of looks.
3 Fantasy Look-Outs
• Chris Johnson- Over 100yrds rushing! Do it again CJ against the Vikings.
• Nate Washington- proving to be the top target for Titans QB’s
• Owen Daniels- Proving to be a solid TE in FF
3 Fade Aways
• Kenny Britt- He is the Hakeem Nicks of the Titans. He gets hurt getting out of bed.
• CJ64 -Chris Johnson on two spots but is still in the doghouse until we see consistency.
• Jake Locker- According to news here in Nashville it’s a good possibility the Titans will shut him down for the season.
Headline
Share your knowledge and opinions on current fantasy football topicsEach week in 1st and 10, I empty out the drawer of my fantasy mind, with 10 thoughts to consider as your season progresses.
/>I can't believe we have already turned the quarter pole of the fantasy football season.
At FFChamps.com, one of our 10 Commandments and strongest draft, waiver pickup, and trade strategies is to target the next great offense or, at this point in the season, simply aim for players from great offenses.
Atlanta is firing on all cylinders, with strong play from Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Michael Turner, and Tony Gonzalez.
The Patriots seem to be where we expect them but from a fantasy football perspective, I would keep an eye on two key points -- 1) the emergence of their running game, and the effect it could have on the usually gaudy stat lines of Brady, Gronk, and Welker.
Despite this week's dynamic duo all-star performance of Ridley and Bolden, the uncertainty around who will get the rock, especially inside the five yard line, is a bit disconcerting and 2) the hip injury to Gronk is worth watching closely, as with no Gronk, I still like this offense but with tempered expectations -- we saw what a hobbled Gronk meant in Indy last February.
I also see Green Bay emerging, and New Orleans still a fantasy offense to target, especially Drew Brees. For more on the offenses we love, visit www.ffchamps.com.
The Eagles are a fantasy football enigma. I know that I do not trust Mike Vick, in fantasy football or in general. I drafted Shady McCoy in the 1st round of one of my leagues. In one of the early season’s most painful moments, Shady's failure to score from the 1 yard line while being given the ball on three consecutive downs, costing me my game this week.
McCoy is in that moment of time here where he is both trade bait and trade prey. I am still trying to decide which path to take, keep him or move him. He still has immense upside, as shown in the second half of Monday night’s game vs. the New York Football Giants.
I am targeting C.J. Spiller. I just traded Dez Bryant for him in one league. Here is the deal. Dez will have one monster, and several "decent, point per reception" games. He will not win you your trophy. In seven if his last 11 games dating back to last season, Spiller is a game changer in fantasy football. I will always bet on a guy who can carry me all the way to the Championship.
On the other hand, The Bills’ schedule the next five weeks includes the 49ers, Cardinals, and Texans. I would look to trade Ryan Fitzpatrick now while his stats still appear impressive before he takes on those dominant defenses and that fierce Buffalo winter.
If you can improve your starting lineup with Fitzpatrick, by trading to a team in need of a quarterback due to injury, or a bye week, this is the time to move Fitzpatrick.
One thing that we really like to do is avoid headaches. This week’s “Headache of the Week” is Chris Johnson. Just when he seems to be permanently on our Sit 'Em list, he has a 100+ yard game. Now What? Do you need to have week to week angst over which CJ2K will show up?
If you can sell another player in your league that he finished stronger last season, has 1st round upside, and is back in gear based on Week 4, make a move but ONLY if it significantly improves your starting lineup. Tennessee is a bad offense with an injured quarterback. I do not believe C.J. will perform consistently. But, he still has the potential to single-handedly win you a couple of weeks so do not give him away.
What should we all make of Jamaal Charles? He certainly looks explosive and is showing no signs of his injury. The Chiefs are a concern, as they seem to fall behind often and fast, which leads to a lot of garbage time, deceiving TD’s for Dwayne Bowe and at times, less carries for Charles.
However, Peyton Hillis is injured and has not done much and Sir Charles is, at the end of the day, a focal point to the Chiefs' offense. The Chiefs are poorly coached and Cassel is overrated (when not in a Bill Belichek coaching system) but they are not as bad offensively as they started and play in a defensively softer division. I am buying Jamaal Charles and cautiously optimistic about Bowe, this season’s garbage time go-to WR.
FFChamps.com’s Commandment No. 1 of 10 is, “know thy scoring system”. As you plot your championship path, you must understand your scoring system. For example, one of my leagues places a huge value on big games.
A running back or wide receiver doesn’t get any points until he amasses 70 yards running (or receiving but not combined), and TD’s, especially, longer TD’s are well rewarded. In this system, I am really targeting Steelers, as Big Ben, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Heath Miller have the ability to connect deep each and every game.
One of these long TD’s can swing a week. Two other things to like about the Steelers are 1) Rashard Mendenhall is returning this week. If he remains healthy, he will become a nice running back to have as the season progresses and 2) Heath Miller is delivering the goods and Big Ben has made it clear, he wants to get his buddy and long-time tight end to the Pro Bowl, and the four TDs in four games is certainly on. I expect the Steelers to be a stellar fantasy offense most weeks.
I know I keep harping on Atlanta bur right now, Roddy White is set up to have his monstrous year yet. While Julio Jones was the higher choice in all drafts, Roddy is the beneficiary of having Julio double covered on the other side of the field. Other WR’s benefiting from being opposite a Stud WR are James Jones for Green Bay, Mike Williams in Tampa, Andre Roberts in Arizona, and Lance Moore in New Orleans.
Each week I list five players I am worried about; last week these were Donald Brown, Peyton Hillis, Eric Decker, Ryan Mathews, and the Saints' backfield. Decker looked much more involved (although still see Stokely taking targets from him) so I am taking him off this list, and while I still believe Ryan Mathews could emerge strong, he hasn’t yet and until he is healthy, he remains in observation.
This week's five players are Ryan Fitzpatrick (over entire season), Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks (will he ever be healthy, he is not getting on the field and he has strong fill-ins in Barden and Hixon), DeMarco Murray (getting killed by a porous Dallas offensive line, and, thus, need to worry about a fickle owner who likes to order lineup changes from his cell phone), and Mike Vick, who is dragging down other Eagles offensively yet will remain the starter as long as the Eagles keep winning games.
Each week I list five players I’d love to have. Last week these were Tony Gonzalez, Andrew Luck, Vernon Davis, David Akers, and Adrien Peterson. I stand behind all of these guys heading into Week 5.
This week's five players are Michael Turner, who is benefiting from Atlanta’s powerhouse passing game; Larry Fitzgerald, who will see less double coverage if Andre Roberts keeps up his torrid TD pace of four in four weeks; James Jones, who after a few years of being one of fantasy football’s most hit or miss players, is suddenly seeing targets and TD’s with Greg Jennings out (and is on some waiver wires still); Trent Richardson, who is showing signs of living up to the hype; and Greg Olsen, who is warming up and getting hot and is Cam Newton’s much needed safety valve.
Tweet us your questions @ffchamps or Visit www.ffchamps.com for around the clock rankings, strategy, and one on one advice, all the way through your Fantasy Football Championship. FFChamps.com: Extraordinary Results for Fantasy Football Dominance.
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Danny Amendola Breaks Collarbone - Out 4-6 Weeks
brought to you by: http://www.wetalkfantasysports.com/
After losing quality RBs in the early weeks of the football season, the injury focus has now shifted to the WR position. The New York
Jets lost former Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes for the season with a LisFranc injury and last night during Thursday Night Football the St. Louis Rams lost Danny Amendola to a broken collarbone.
FOR STARTERS STAY AWAY FROM ALL JETS RECEIVERS! With the way Mark Sanchez has played lately, the fact that Tm Tebow will be the starter soon and no running game, the Jets have ZERO players worth owning!
Start with Kendall Wright (32% owned Yahoo) of the Tennessee Titans. I know the Titans are a wreck but they are also one of the leagues worst defenses leaving the offense to play catch up quite often and forcing them to throw the ball more often than they would like.
Prefer a team with a more solid QB? How about Randall Cobb (63%) and / or James Jones (60%) of the Green Bay Packers. Both of them will disappoint quite often but they both have a ton of upside with the way Greg Jennings groin is treating him this season.
The Arizona Cardinals Andre Roberts (59%) is worth a look but just remember that he plays in a tough defensive division and still has another game against both the Seahawks and Rams and 2 more with the 49ers (1 is week 17 though). Make sure you play matchups with him as the Rams proved last night that a team with a good defensive line will disrupt any offensive plan the Cardinals had.
Ever wanted a 5'7 wide receiver on your team? Well you should! Andrew Hawkins (51%) of the Cincinnati Bengals is averaging 16.5 yards per reception but is a much better NON PPR guy.
Streaming WRs each week based on matchups and injury reports is not the worst idea either, for now. Look at the Giants this week without Hakeem Nicks (again!) and Domenic Hixon (40%) and Ramses Barden (14%) are extermely valuable against a weak Browns defense.
Don’t Take It Personal, But It’s Time to Get Defensive
Four weeks are in the books and the waiver wire is starting to get thin. Considering this weeks top picks ups are Brian Hartline and Greg Zuerlein I’m thinking you can do a little bit better. Some of
you took your defense early to land a top billed San Francisco, Houston or Philadelphia squad. While the first two are happy, those with the birds are looking for other options. Baltimore has paid off as a top pick and Chicago just won several people their games Monday night on the heels of a 5 pick 2 TD game.
However, many of you that took the Cowboys, Jets or Pittsburgh are looking for a replacement. With Revis out, the Jets are pedestrian at best and have a very hot/cold schedule ahead facing Houston, Indianapolis, New England then Miami. I like the Indianapolis and Miami games as Ryan can scheme to trick the rookie passers but Houston and New England should torch this unit.
As soon as we all thought the Cowboys were going to get things going, Romo stepped in and completed 5 passes, to the bears, and put their defense in short field situations all night. Now look at their upcoming games, at Balitmore, at Carolina and home Giants. They could easily lose all three and get blown out 2, I’m staying away.
Pittsburgh’s coming off a bye so they will be rested however their upcoming schedule is tough with teams that can put up points in Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Washington. Vick has been handing out turn overs like they’re Halloween candy but all three of these teams have potent offenses and I see three high scoring affairs which will not bode well for their defensive scoring.
That’s why I’m taking this week to load up on defenses to start playing the more favorable matchup week to week. I’m looking for squads that have at least one of a couple things going for them. Either favorable matchups against young inexperienced signal callers or games where they should be out in front protecting a lead and can get some junk turn overs and possibly a pick 6.
The following defenses are available in most leagues and should seriously be looked at adding for the foreseeable future:
New England Patriots (67% owned) – I’m stashing this unit as they play Denver this week in what shapes up to be a shootout but look at their next slate of games; at Seattle, home Jets, at St. Louis, home Buffalo, home Indianapolis, at Jets and at Miami. None of these offenses scare me except Buffalo but we just saw what the Pats can do when they get out in front picking off Fitzpatrick 4 times. As the weather turns colder, this unit gets better; look for more takeaways coming and a nice ride from the DST.
Minnesota Vikings (13% owned) – This just in, the Vikings are good against the run. They are also playing inspired ball behind Christian Ponders growing game management skills. They just got Jerome Simpson from suspension so look for this team to be playing with a lead over the next 4 to 5 games. Their upcoming schedule is: home Tennessee, at Washington, home Arizona, home Tampa Bay and at Seattle. We just saw the Vikings shut down the high flying Detroit Lions so the only team that worries me is Washington and RGIII. Otherwise who’s scared of Hasselbeck, Kolb, Freeman and Wilson? Not me, I’m grabbing the Vikings and playing them this week against Hasselbeck hoping for several turn overs as the veteran gets back into rhythm.
Cincinnati Bengals (27% owned) – This is a bye week fill or a match up play but their next two games look favorable. Week 5 the Bengals are at home vs Tannehill and a banged up Miami Dolphins. Yes, Hartline just set the world on fire with 253 yards receiving but Tannehill has 6 picks on the season already and Bush is still battling leg injuries. If this game were in Miami I’d feel differently but look for the usual hook up of Dalton to AJ Green to put this unit out in front allowing them to work for turn overs while they protect a lead. Week 6 Cincinnati goes to Cleveland to beat up on Brandon Weeden and the Browns. Greg Little has hands of stone so any offense the Browns can muster will be through a rising Trent Richardson. While he did put up 145 total yards and 2 scores in week 2, I think he comes back to earth and the Bengals keep this one closer. Look for a higher scoring game, like in week 2, but with plenty of chances for turn overs.
If you’re looking for a longer term squad keep an eye on the Denver Broncos (23% owned). They have a horrible matchup this week against New England then several tough games but starting week 12 they play at Kansas City, home Tampa Bay and at Oakland. Peyton Manning will be operating on all 10 cylinders by this time and Thomas, Decker and McGahee should be lighting up the score board. This should provide Denver the opportunity to sick Dumervil and Miller on the QB while Champ continues shutting down the number one WR. Again, I’m not adding these guys now but if they get back to last season’s form, you could ride this DST right into the playoffs.
Follow me on twitter @tmcdannell and best of luck in week 5!
Jackie Battle named starter again
michael fabiano just tweet that battle is the starter again this week. Is he a better start over mathews? or a starter at all
Fantasy Football Redzone: 20 Observations From Week 4
Hard to believe, but we’re already a quarter of the way through the 2012 NFL season. So far, the we’re into October and the Saints have yet to post a win, the Lions are one hail mary pass away from a
lso being 0-4, the Cardinals (!) , Texans and the Falcons are the only undefeated teams left in the league, Brian Hartline has more receiving yards than AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, and Victor Cruz, 6th round rookie RB Alfred Morris is a top 5 RB in rushing yardage, and anyone who had the Week 5-Week 7 window for Tim Tebow becoming the Jets starting QB is probably going to win the pool. It’s been a wild and crazy first few weeks, and here are some of the interesting and fantasy relevant observations from Week 4 action in particular.
1. Flacco Fixates – It sure seems like when Flacco zeros in on a the hot hand receiver, he goes back to that well again and again. For instance, at the half in against the Browns, Anquan Boldin had all of one catch for six yards on two targets. But then the Browns started covering Torrey Smith closer, and Flacco zeroed in on Boldin, completing pass after pass to him. Boldin’s final line: 9 – 131.
2. Pits for Pitta – So when Flacco fixates, somebody has to lose out… this week, it was Dennis Pitta. Pitta was one of the most heavily targeted players through 3 weeks regardless of postion, but in Week 4 he had two targets and no catches. So before anointing Pitta the next big TE phenom, remember there will be weeks like this where he’s not a big part of the game plan. The silver lining: fellow TE Ed Dickson didn’t even get targeted once, so it wasn’t like Pitta lost out to another tight end.
3. Brandon Bolden = Week 5 Waiver Wire Darling. While Stevan Ridley had most of the carries (22) and also have a very nice game (106 yards, 2 TDs), Bolden stole the running game show with a 148 total yards and a touchdown of his own. It wasn’t like Bolden got all his work in the 4th quarter running out the clock either; Bolden got his first carry in the first quarter, and it went for 12 yards. If you have room on your roster and you’re a Ridley owner, might a well stash Bolden as insurance; the undrafted rookie looks very much like Ridley’s handcuff going forward. If you’re not a Ridley owner, I wouldn’t add Bolden except as a speculative pick on a very deep roster… no sense in getting Belichicked if you don’t have to. Speaking of Belichick…
4. No one keeps the throttle down like Bill Belichick. Now this is what you call playing to the final whistle. Already up 42-28 with just over four minutes left in the fourth quarter, Belichick keeps Tom Brady in there slinging the ball, tossing a touchdown pass to Brandon Lloyd to make it 49-28. Everyone was asking what was wrong with Tom Brady; well, now you know… he just hadn’t played the Bills yet. Up next for Brady and the Patriots; a date with old rival Peyton Manning in what should be the best game for fantasy football purposes in Week 5. If you have Broncos or Patriots, get them in your lineup for this one!
5. The Lions look lost. Seriously, this team has far too much talent to be muddling through games the way they have been. If it wasn’t for a lucky hail mary at the end of last week’s game against the Titans, the Lions would be staring 0-4 right in the face. Matthew Stafford has looked just plain off this year; his completion percentage is up (almost 69%), but that’s because the Lions have gone from a great vertical passing team to a dink and dunk style of offense. You of course have to keep starting Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford, but at this point I’d strongly consider not starting anyone else on that team until they find the “downfield passing” portion of their playbooks again.
6. Just when you thought it was safe to write off Chris Johnson. CJ2K finally decided it was time to get off the mat and roll up a respectable amount of yardage in a game. And of course, it was against the #1 defense in the league, the Houston Texans, which meant if there was any week that you decided to finally wean yourself off of Johnson it would be this week. Of course, earlier this week the Texans’ defensive coordinator Wade Phillips hinted that his defense considers the Titans a passing team and was going to play accordingly; so if you don’t stack up to stop Johnson, he proved he still has the ability to rip you for it.
7. Go get Jerome Simpson while you still can. Simpson came off of his three game suspension, and on a day where Christian Ponder only threw for 111 yards, Simpson still caught 4 catches for 50 yards on 7 targets. This after not playing for a month. Simpson is the deep threat the Vikings have lacked, he has the ability to blow the top off the coverage and that will only serve to help Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson. With the Titans weak against the pass, this is probably the last time you’ll be able to get Simpson without everyone beating feet to the waiver wire.
8. The Chiefs don’t show up until the second half. So far, the Chiefs have played in 4 games, and they’ve been behind in each of those games at the half; in fact, they’ve been outscored 78-29 in the first half in each of their four contests. Which takes us to observation #8:
9. Dwayne Bowe = 2012 Garbage Time King. Let’s face it; Matt Cassel is terrible, as he has only 5 TDs against 7 INTs so far this year, and a good number of his turnovers happen in the first half to put the Chiefs in a hole. But at least he’s terrible in the general direction of Bowe, who racked up another 12 targets (that makes 49 on the year, an average of over 12 per game) and a late 4th quarter TD when the game was already decided. Bowe has 3 TDs on the year, and all 3 have come late in the 4th when the score was just academic. Luckily for us fantasy leaguers, it doesn’t matter when Bowe scores his touchdowns, they all count the same toward fantasy victory.
10. Antonio Gates just doesn’t look the same. It sure is looking like age and injury has started to really catch up with Gates. He doesn’t exhibit the same burst off the line he used to, he doesn’t regularly beat linebackers and safeties; so much so that Rivers doesn’t even target him like he used to. Gates only has 18 targets through 3 games played. In fact, on a per game basis, Gates is in the company of such TE luminaries as Kellen Davis, Dwayne Allen, Tom Crabtree, and Craig Stevens. If you can sell Gates on his name value for a Brent Celek, Brandon Pettigrew, or Owen Daniels, I say go for it.
11. Marshawn Lynch is the only thing going for the Seahawks offense. So far, Lynch has had no less than 97 total yards in a game, and he’s scored twice. He’s on pace for over 1900 total yards and 8 TDs, which would almost assuredly land him in the top 3 for his position. In fact, a quarter of the way through the season and Lynch is the leading rusher in the league with 423 yards. It’s not like he’s done it with one monster outlier game either; he’s been very consistent. This with a rookie QB that isn’t threatening anyone right now… if Russell Wilson gets better, Lynch could stand to see even bigger running lanes to go Beast Mode through
.
12. Time to jettison your Jets. One thing that was apparent with the pasting the Jets suffered at the hands of the 49ers in Week 4, and that is fantasy owners are probably best served to just cut bait on any Jets they might be holding on to. Mark Sanchez was absolutely horrendous, overthrowing receivers left and right. Shonn Greene looks like he’s running in mud on top of quicksand encased in quick-drying cement. The Jets couldn’t put anything together that even threatened the 49ers with the possibility of a field goal, let alone a real sustained scoring drive. Not only that, but Santonio Holmes went down with a leg injury that looked pretty bad; so things aren’t getting better any time soon.
13. Brian Hartline is the NFL’s leading receiver through 4 weeks. Now, it helps that in Week 4 he had an absolutely ridiculous 12-253 and 1 TD stat line, and even if you take away his 80 yard TD, his stats were still absolutely Wes Welker-esque. The most impressive part about it is he posted that on the road against a Cardinals secondary that has been playing great football thus far. It’s apparent that Hartline has the trust of rookie signal caller Ryan Tannehill, and as Tannehill matures and gets more comfortable, Hartline looks to be the primary beneficiary. Give WR2/WR3 consideration to Hartline in Week 5, as the Dolphins visit a Bengals team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in receiving defense.
14. Chargers WRs aren’t helping Philip Rivers. A lot of people wonder why Rivers hasn’t been able to put the 300 and 3 stat lines his owners have become accustomed to over the years. Malcom Floyd is his leading receiver so far, and still he only has 15 receptions on 26 targets on the year. That puts him at a pace of only 60 catches on the year, and his 250 yards is a pace of 1000 even. Those are lead WR stats that aren’t conducive to another 4000 yard campaign for Rivers. Help is on the horizon though; Vincent Brown will be eligible to return after Week 8, so he may be worth stashing on your roster if you have space, especially in keeper leagues. Brown has the look of a young player that can take over the lead dog position in the WR corps for the Chargers, which Rivers desperately needs.
15. So much for last week’s waiver wire darling, Ramses Barden. A lot of fantasy owners used their waiver pick this week on Barden after his 9-138 performance in Week 3 against the Panthers. Unfortunately, Domenik Hixon returned to the lineup and took his spot back as the #3 WR and Hakeem Nicks understudy, going over 100 yards receiving. Hixon’s speed and leaping ability is more akin to Nicks, which is why the Giants prefer him over Barden. Not only does Hixon do a better Nicks impersonation, Barden likely didn’t endear himself to Tom Coughlin by committing an obvious offensive pass interference penalty on the last drive against the Eagles, which ultimately pushed them a little too far out of kicker Lawrence Tynes’ range, costing the Giants the game. After that gaffe, don’t expect Barden to get back on the field much again unless both Nicks and HIxon are injured.
16. And that’s why you drafted Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski so high. Graham turned in a respectable 7-76, while Gronkowski finally went nuts with a 5-105 and a TD game. How’d the other top 10 2012 stat producers at the tight end position do? Tony Gonzalez (5-51) wasn’t bad, but Vernon Davis (2-28), Dennis Pitta (0-0), Kyle Rudolph (2-8), Jared Cook (3-36), and Martellus Bennett (1-2) are all top 10 guys that did literally squat for fantasy lineups. Graham and Gronk are still the class of this position with Gonzo not far behind; the rest are very useable, but are all subject to having these kinds of days once in a while.
17. Greg Jennings’ groin looks like a lingering problem. Jennings was barely able to get on the field against the Seattle Seahawks, and his pedestrian 6-35 stat line showed that he wasn’t 100% healthy. This week he did make his one catch count (a 9 yard TD), but he couldn’t go the rest of the way once he aggravated his groin injury. These types of injuries do not go away without rest, so if Jennings continues to insist on gutting games out, his stat lines are going to suffer. Until he proves healthy, I’d shelve him and make sure you pick up the subject of #18:
18. James Jones can replace Jennings. Jones has caught 5 passes in each of the past two weeks, each for at least 55 yards, and Week 4 saw him score twice. Jones is starting to develop a better rapport with Aaron Rodgers now that he’s getting a lot more reps with Jennings hobbled. The more Jennings sits out, the more Jones is going to get comfortable and the more productive he’ll get. If you’re the owner of big time WRs on bye this week like Calvin Johnson, Miles Austin/Dez Bryant, or Vincent Jackson and don’t have a lot of good bench options, I’d go pick up James Jones if he’s available and give him a start against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5.
19. Ryan Mathews fumbling problems are costing him reps. To be fair, Mathews only fumbled once so far this year, but it was inside the 10 yard line where the Chargers were about to score in the 2nd quarter to take a 7-6 lead. Instead, the Falcons recovered the ball, marched down the field and made it 13-0; a score from which the Chargers never recovered. So in Week 4, what happened? That’s right, unsung Jackie Battle got the start. While Battle was out-produced in the game by Mathews (39 rushing yards vs. 61 rushing yards), it’s obvious the coaching staff was trying to make a point to Mathews; they have more faith in Battle’s ball control skills, even if he isn’t as talented a back. For now, this situation is muddied beyond usefulness until Mathews proves that he can hold on to the ball and reasserts himself as the undisputed #1 back for the Chargers.
20. Peyton Manning is finding his groove. We knew it was probably going to take a few weeks for Manning to be comfortable; after all, he’s playing on a new team, a new offense, and playing for the first time in about a year and a half. So, you have to excuse some early season rust. But now, Manning seems to be finally finding his groove, and his velocity seems just fine. He fired a couple of hard throws on a rope to Eric Decker and to Demariyus Thomas in Week 4 against the Raiders, showing that he still has it. Manning totaled almost 340 yards and 3 scores, and outside of the 3 INT debacle against the Falcons in Week 2, Manning is averaging over 300 yards and over 2 TD and 0 INTs per game. With shootouts looming with the Patriots and Chargers next, feel free to start Manning without hesitation.
Tight Ends and Defenses-Week 5 Options and Plays
Tony Gonzalez-If you're lucky enough to have drafted (stolen) the current no. 1 TE option in fantasy football. the ageless wonder Tony Gonzalez you've got a decition to make.You can take the practical
route and ride out the season, hoping he remains as hot as he has started off the first quarter of the year. Personally, I'd shop Tony. Julio Jones has shown he gains momentum and targets as the year goes on and I see this affecting much of Tony's production. I'd sell high on Tony if you can get solid value in trade.Recommended play-Sell High.
Minnesota Vikings Defense/Special Teams-After shutting down the typically powerful Detroit Lion's offense at home in week 4, I'm buying the Minnesota defense as for real. They have availability in many lagues and have a nice matchup this week going against Tennessee, who's starting backup QB Matt Hasselbeck. Look for 1-2 turnovers and less than 3 TD's allowed. Recommended play- Plug and Play add.
Fred Davis-Washington TE-Fred has not yet hit paydirt, but he's seeing plenty of targets and has a nice YPG average. He's an excellent buy low or trade low option if you can find the right deal. He's going against the Falcons in wk. 5 who have shown some weaknesses going against the TE position. Recommended Play-Buy/Trade for low
Chicago Defense-After taking on some of the more powerful offenses, the Chicago Bears defense is simply at the top or near the top of fantasy football right now. They're forcing turnovers, sacking QB's and even scoring touchdowns. They're going up against a one-dimensional Jacksonville offense this week and I have them allowing less than 20 points and forcing 2-3 turnovers. Recommended play-Start with confidence.
There's No Free Lunch In Fantasy Football
If you’ve ever taken a course in economics you probably remember hearing “there is no such thing as a free lunch.”
There are over 27 million fantasy football owners who understand this less
on all too well. We’ve all lost money, sacrificed time, and given up other benefits that economists would consider opportunity costs.
Like the principles of economics, fantasy football can be described as “the basic relationship between scarcity and choice.” Whether it's making better draft selections or optimizing your starting lineup, owners that make better choices win more leagues.
One of the best ways fantasy football owners can improve their decision-making process is by joining a diverse network like PigskinBoss.com where they can build upon existing ideas and solutions. Helping fantasy owners gain new perspectives on old problems means they are more likely to make more informed choices.
Here’s how...
The availability of perspectives determines how complex a problem really is. Rather than relying on a single source for information, PigskinBoss.com provides fantasy football owners with a wide variety of perspectives (set of solutions) for each question in the Polls section.
More importantly the site provides a forum for sharing heuristics - the methods we use for solving problems. Whether it’s sharing articles from leading sports sites or writing your own, our News section is a collaborative hub for all fantasy football information.
This recombination of ideas stimulates innovation and follows the No Free Lunch Theorem to a T.
Wolpert and Macready’s NFL Theorem essentially says that “unless you know something about the problem being solved, no algorithm or heuristic performs better than any other.” - Professor Scott E. Page (https://www.coursera.org/course/modelthinking)
No one knows exactly how well a player will perform on a given week; it’s impossible to arrive at the best solution 100% of the time. A more diverse set of heuristics allows fantasy football owners to find more perspectives and ultimately arrive at better decisions.
Thanks to the team at PigskinBoss.com you now have access to a next generation community dedicated solely to connect people who face the same decisions each week. Every man for himself no longer exists.
See what led to me trade for Chris Johnson & Hakeem Nicks last week in "7 Reasons Why I Still Suck at Fantasy Football" at http://goprofantasysports.com
Thanks for Reading!
Sleeper Predictions Under-Performance
As reiterated on my podcast last Monday on SportsFans In HeadBands I predicted RB Ryan Williams and WR Brandon LaFell to be the breakout sleepers for the 2012 fantasy football season. Evan Singer agr
eed with me with Williams', however I didn't hear a word about LaFell. Actually, a lot of people predicted Ryan Williams to break out, and most felt Brandon LaFell would do the same thing. After all, third year receivers such as LaFell traditionally break out and Beanie Wells can't stay healthy long enough to not give back-ups a chance to hit the field. So is it time to hit the panic button on both these players?
First let's start with my most knowledgeable subject, the Carolina Panthers. LaFell has been targeted 21 times through four weeks, catching 10 of those targets for 182 yards and one touchdown. I know these aren't the kind of numbers you want to see for a guy that is sitting on your bench, but don't give up hope yet. Obviously Cam Newton looks to WR Steve Smith and TE Greg Olsen more for the passing game, but defenses are quick to pick up on that trend. LaFell will get more targets and will get more opportunities to find the endzone. Now that the heart of the bye weeks is coming into effect, LaFell is still a solid WR2 and Flex option for both standard and PPR leagues. Keep this in mind as well, Cam had the same trend last year, and LaFell had descent numbers toward the second half of the season.
Arizona is obviously the surprise team in the NFL as they are 4-0 to start the young season. As most predicted, Beanie Wells is injured and the Cardinals even went as far as to put Wells on IR, making him eligible to return after Thanksgiving. In week 3, Williams had 83 yards on 13 carries versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Last week however, 26 yards on 13 carries against the number one overall run defense of the Miami Dolphins. Williams goes up against the 26th overall run defense in the St. Louis Rams this coming Thursday, meaning this should be his true breakout game of his career. Seeing as how St. Louis has the 11th ranked pass defense, expect HC Ken Wisenhunt to rely more on Williams' legs rather than the inconsistent arm of Kevin Kolb.
It's hard not to assume that once Williams' has one big game, the nerves will break and will be a consistent threat every week for the Cardinals. Same for Brandon LaFell. He is a streaky receiver, but thrives under pressure and is a valuable asset for the Carolina passing game. Point is, don't lose faith in these players. It's hard not to panic when it comes to weekly matchups in fantasy, but resist the urge to hit the drop buttons on both these players. At some point during the season, you'll thank me.
AFC South Fantasy Update
3 Fantasy Muffs
• Kenny Britt- Still a must start, was not able to get much against Jacksonville.
• Justin Blackmon-What happened to the guy from Oklahoma State? He hasn’t been what most ex
pected.
• Titans RB’s- No run game and they play the Texans this week.
3 Fantasy Locks
• Arian Foster- No Kidding even with the knee he played like the #1 FF Back that he is
• MJD- Is he back? He came out strong in week 3, look for the same against the Bengals.
• Matt Schaub- So many weapons, all he needs to do is not turn the ball over
3 Fantasy Look-Outs
• Ben Tate- Expect to see more action against a weak Titans defense.
• Nate Washington- proving to be the top target for Locker.
• Jake Locker- Offense ran through him and he proved he could handle the workload.
3 Fade Aways
• Owen Daniels- Not putting up great numbers but not all is fault with a great run game.
• CJ64 -Chris Johnson averaging a prolific 1.4ypc and a grand total of 45 yards.
• Jared Cook- Gets nicked up a little too much but has shown some big play potential.
National Fiasco League: Whose Affected in Fantasy?
We all know of the drama the first three weeks of the season has brought with the replacement referees. I suppose the only good thing coming out of this whole thing is that fans are more worried abou
t their actual team rather than their fantasy football status. However, that's why you all visit this website and read our articles so let's focus on which fantasy spots are being affected by these referees.
QB play has been a little suspect due to the physicality down the field these referees are allowing. If you have Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, you're scratching your head and throwing expletives toward your television and computer screen. Two players who you may have thought would be approaching the 10 TD mark, aren't even halfway there through three games. Temper your expectations with your QB's, not only are you suffering but so are your opponents.
RB's are the cream of the crop with the presence of the replacement referees. They don't have to worry about Illegal Contact or Pass Interference (unless they're running a wheel route). If you've ever talked to me for more than five minutes about fantasy football you know how much I dislike putting a WR in the Flex position, this is an opportune time to fill a third RB into that Flex spot over a WR. RB's have consistently put up plenty more points than any WR so far this season, until the regular refs get back on the field, RB is the way to go.
That of course brings us to WR's and TE's. These two positions are getting drilled due to bad calls. With the exception of one breakout game from most of the big-name WR's, no one has really put up back-to-back big games. The endzone is hard to come by with these referees, once again giving me the chance to advice you to not put a WR or TE in the Flex position. PI calls in the endzone will result in TD's for your RB's, not your WR's. With TE's, what you're going to get is what you're going to get. Be happy with anywhere between 50-90 yards. If you own Gronk, Finley, and Jimmy Graham expect to be happy most every week since their offenses look to pass way more than run, especially in the endzone. If you have anyone else, temper your TD expectations.
Defenses are drastically affected by the poor refereeing. Think about this before you judge me, how often do you see Baltimore give up over 350 yards of total offense and give up 30 points? It's very rare, and the biggest reason for them allowing 30 points is due to the lack of physicality they can get away with. I know getting a big name defense is popular (just not before the 8th round) but if you broke the cardinal rule of using a 4-7 round pick on a D, you have to live with your mistake.
Just like you have to hold your rage with the NFL during their huge mess, hold your rage with your fantasy teams. Always remember this, you may have a bad week due to the horrible officiating, but you may be on the up-side the very next week due to the same thing happening to your opponent.
Leshoure a must start?
Jw what ur guys thoughts are
Is Pitta a must start at TE?
I think he might be. He gets a lot of targets and a lot of targets in the redzone. IMO he is Flacos #2
CJ Spiller and Reggie Bush Inured
After losing Ryan Mathews in the preseason, Fred Jackson in Week 1 and Matt Forte in Week 2, the NFL and Fantasy Football players world wide lost another two running backs in Week 3!
Duri
ng the Miami Dolphins / New York Jets game, Reggie Bush (97% owned Yahoo), who had been avg 6.1 yards per carry, took a helmet to the knee that has sidelined Bush in 2007 (PCL) and 2008 (MCL) and didn't return. Bush is going to miss at least 3 weeks and could potentially be held out of action until after their Week 7 Bye. Daniel Thomas (12 %) and rookie Lamar Miller (3%) is in line for carries and a 50/50 split is likely to happen until one back earns more carries.
In the Bufallo Bills / Cleveland Browns game, C.J. Spiller (96%) was driven into the ground and landed on his left shoulder. POSITIVE news out of Bills camp says that it is just a shoulder sprain. He is set to undergo an MRI today where more good news is expected. Tashard Choice (9%) finished the game and took 20 carries for 91 yards. Just remember that Fred Jackson could return as early as next week, and if not the week after so Choice will be a tough guy to add for just a game.
Hard to imagine that two 3rd string RBs will have tons of fantasy value in Week 4 of the Fantasy Football season, but Andre Brown (65%) of the New York Giants and Tashard Choice are solid options this week.
Mikel Leshoure (56%) made his NFL debut last week going for 100 yards and a score. The Detroit Lions offense puts up plenty of points, its just their defense can't stop anyone!
It looks like the Pittsburgh Steelers have abandoned the run game until Rashad Mendenhall (64%) returns so it is probably time to stop playing Isaac Redman (48%) and Jonathan Dywer (22%).
AFC South Update from Week 2
3 Fantasy Muffs
• Andre Johnson- Still a must start, was not able to get much against Jacksonville.
• Jake Locker- What happened to the guy from last season that avoided the bad decisions?<
br />• WR in Jax- This team is still BAD
3 Fantasy Locks
• Arian Foster- No Kidding even with the knee he played like the #1 FF Back that he is
• Reggie Wayne- Proving to be an elite WR, number one target for Luck.
• Matt Schaub- So many weapons, all he needs to do is not turn the ball over
3 Fantasy Look-Outs
• Andrew Luck- Great week 2(even though it was the Vikings) might be a sign of things to come.
• Kenny Britt- Expect to see the player we saw last year moving forward.
• Donald Brown- Good start so far this season; Jax can stop the pass not so well on the run.
3 Fade Aways
• MJD- Last year he seemed to lose a step. Would like to see him have a good game before taking him out of a fade away.
• CJ64 -Chris Johnson questioning his team, not leading by example, this guy is going down fast.
• Any AFC South TE outside of Owen Daniels
5 things that impact your team and you can't control them.
Certainly, different scenarios beyond your players' performance level can impact your fantasy football players. And all of it, much like your player's performance level, are out of your control. Here'
s the things that leave you on a high-speed ride with no steering wheel. 1. Game situation. If one team is leading big, that means they could pull key starters to assure they don't get injured, cutting into playing time of your stars you might be counting on. And if your player is on a team getting blown out, you might get some "garbage time" stats as they go for broke trying to catch up. Be aware of possible blowout match-ups and which side your player is on. 2. NFL replacement officials. That's right, a blown whistles at inopportune and incorrect times can take away stats. A pass interference call may move the team down the field, but it doesn't get your guy passing or receiving yards. You can only hope the penalties get you closer to the red zone for scoring opportunities, or the missed or overturned calls don't take away points from you. There's nothing you can do but hope in this situation. 3. Weather conditions. Hasn't been a factor yet, but snow, rain and wind will certainly come into play later in the year. Potentially turning a passing game into a running game, or vice verse a. Dome games offer the only reliable prediction of field conditions. Keep an eye on weather conditions when setting lineups. 4. Injuries and mistakes. Andre Brown produced great for the Giants in Bradshaw's absence. Just think if David Wilson hadn't of fumbled and earned his way into Coach Tom Coughlin's doghouse in Week 1, who would have benefited the most from Bradshaw's injury? Mistakes can haunt you for weeks. Injuries can frustrate you, not only to your own guys, but think about how losing a key left tackle, receiving partner or a blocking fullback might affect your player. 5. Your own indecisiveness. You drafted a solid team. Great, that's only step one. Step two means making the right lineup calls. RGIII does no good on your bench and Danny Amendola can't help you even though he had double-digit catches and two touchdowns, if you cut him the week before because you were inpatient or thought someone else would do better.
NFC South: Start and Sit
So far we've seen plenty of points being put on the board from all the NFC South teams with the exception of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game in week 1. Carolina has scored 45 points, Tampa Bay with 50, a
nd Atlanta and New Orleans each with 67. Not many people doubted the QB's in the division would put up big numbers, it was the rest of the position players that were in question. Let's take a look at who should be in your starting roster for week 3.
Carolina: After an ugly running game with the absence of Jonathon Stewart in week 1, the Panthers offense showed they heavily rely on having the three-headed monster attack to balance the offense and win games. The question is always who to start, Stewart or Williams. Stewart is still nursing an ankle injury suffered during the preseason and was held out of practice on Tuesday, though I expect he will see plenty of action against the New York Giants. If you have either of these players, start them both. The upside is always great for both players, and the Giants have allowed an average of 111.0 YPC through two weeks. The Giants secondary has allowed 259.0 Opposing Passing Yards so far, good for 22nd. They are depleted in the secondary, meaning Cam Newton, Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell are must starts this week.
Tampa Bay: Doug Martin would be making a case for ROTY honors had it not be for RG3 putting up monster passing and rushing numbers so far this season. Josh Freeman seems to be redeeming himself after a disappointing 2011 season, but do you start him against the Dallas Cowboys? The Buccaneers are only averaging 178.0 Passing Yards per game, 29th in the league. Dallas has only allowed 160.0 Opposing Passing Yards, third in the league. If there are better options on your bench, Freeman is a definite sit this week. As of Doug Martin, he's a must start. Dallas is allowing 132.0 Rush YPG through two weeks and that should be the main focus for the Bucs heading into JerryLand.
New Orleans: Yes it's been disappointing seeing the Saints struggle as badly as they have this season. Despite four interceptions from Drew Brees, you can't blame the offense. Not only has Brees put up back-to-back 300 yard games, but the running game with Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas has stepped up significantly if you compare them to 2011. Expect the Saints to erase the goose egg in their win column against a disappointing Kansas City Chiefs defense that has allowed 235.0 Pass YPG and 142.5 Opposing Rushing Yards. Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore, and Mark Ingram are all must starts. Pierre Thomas is going to give up carries to Ingram inside the goal line, he is a desperate fill-in if you have injuries.
Atlanta: If you're a Dirty Bird fan you must be flying on Cloud 9, and you have every reason to be. Matt Ryan is having the season of his life through two weeks, Tony Gonzalez is playing like he's 26 and not 36, and Julio Jones and Roddy White have had individual monster games. They make the hike to the west coast to face the San Diego Chargers in a matchup of two 2-0 teams. If you own Michael Turner or Jacquizz Rogers you must sit them against this stingy defense. The Chargers have only allowed 41.5 Opposing YPC this season, they've faced Darren McFadden and CJ2K in those two games. The pass defense has been solid as well, giving up 225.0 Opposing Passing Yards to teams that have been throwing heavily in the second half due to deficits. Seeing as we've seen Julio Jones have a big game in week 1 and was a no-show in week 2, expect a bounce back in week 3. Roddy is hard to sit, so don't do it. Tony Gonzalez may take a step back in this game, however with no running attack look for Tony-G to get some looks in the redzone and goal-line situations.
So there you have it, with the exception of a few position players the NFC South is a must start for this coming week. Good luck to everyone this week!
You can follow me individually on Twitter, @JasonSaulter and follow my show page, @SFinHB. Be sure to also "Like" us on Facebook, www.facebook.com/SportsFansInHeadBands.com.
Attention D/ST Streamers:
This week I want to share an article by C.D. Carter from TheFakeFootball.com
"Dreaming of Streaming: Week 3 Edition" is perfect for fantasy owners looking to acquire a new defense through f
ree agency.
Here's the link:
http://thefakefootball.com/dreaming-of-streaming-week-3-edition/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheFakeFootball+%28The+Fake+Football%29
If you aren't thrilled with any of C.D.'s recommendations, take a look at Buffalo this week.
The team that I started Week 1 decided to finally show up against KC last week (5 sacks, 2 FUM, 1 INT, & a Punt Return for a TD).
The Bills head to Cleveland this week. Despite a few signs of hope from Trent Richardson, the Browns have given up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing defenses in Yahoo! standard scoring leagues and the consensus is that the Browns offense still stinks. ESPN's Week 3 Projections have the Bills D/ST ranked 2nd behind Indianapolis. Ouch.
Let me know which D/ST you plan on streaming this week in the comments section below.
Thanks for reading & good luck in Week 3!
Headline
Share your knowledge and opinions on current fantasy football topics
Which RBs to pick up? Help
Bradshaw got hurt and out of which 2 back ups should i pick up. also steven jackson got hurt so which 2 back ups do i pick up
Please vote
Will u guys please go and vote on my latest trade offer... i really dont know what to do
Oh Reggie
I drafted Reggie Bush this with a theory. Bush was going to be the only player on the Miami offense that actually deserved to be in the NFL. Everyone knew that, including defenses. So the prevailing w
isdom was that he would likely be contained on a week to week basis. What we have seen, however, indicates otherwise. Let's ignore his week 2 explosion as an anomaly and instead look at how many touches he's getting. In week 1, he got 14 rushes and 6 targets for a total of 20 touches. Week 2, he got 26 rushes and 4 targets for a total of 30 touches.
Clearly, Reggie is getting used in this offense. Everyone on the field knows that he is the only viable threat on that offense, but he has still had two startable fantasy weeks. Why? Athleticism. In the past, Reggie Bush has always been a risky start because he just didn't have consistency. Sure, on any given play have he could be brilliant and take it to the house. But how often was that going to happen in a pass-heavy saints offense that didn't even consider Bush a workhorse back? Now, however, we see Bush getting enough touches to make the chances of him doing something amazing increase. Sure, week 2 isn't going to happen every week, but we will be seeing a lot more razzle dazzle out of Reggie this season.
Aaron Hernandez out 6 Weeks
Not only did the New England Patriots lose a shoe-in of a game to the Arizona Cardinals, but they lost TE Aaron Hernandez to a possible high ankle sprain. It appears Hernandez will miss at least the
next 6 week. Being owned in 99% of Yahoo leagues, there is going to be a ton of TE waiver wire action going on this week. Normally I would start by telling you who to go pick up, but this time I'm going to start by telling you to avoid Dante Rosario (2%) of the San Diego Chargers. He did catch 3 touchdowns this week but Antonio Gates was a last minute scratch and SHOULD be able to return next week. However, if you own Gates and want to handcuff him and have bench space, go get Rosario!
Back to Hernandez, if you lost him go hunt for Brent Celek (75%) as he has been targeted 19 times over the first two weeks by Mike Vick. Catching 12 of those 19 targets is also a positive sign that he and Vick are in sync. With DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin dealing with health issues on what seems to be a weekly basis, Celek might be the lone staple in the Eagles passing attack.
Owen Daniels might also be available at just 69% owned but I just fear he doesn't have the big day ability, yet is a very safe option.
Next up is Dennis Pitta (29%) of the Baltimore Ravens. I am not in love with Pitta by any means, but he has been the most targeted TE in the early going (tied with Jimmy Graham) and seems to be the centerpiece of the Ravens offense for some reason.
If none of those guys are available, you should look towards the young guys like Kyle Rudolph (35%) Coby Fleener (52%) and Jared Cook (62%) and just hope that they can put up some numbers. As deep as TE really is, Jason Witten hurt the waiver wire before the season even began!
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Let the Chris Johnson Doubt Begin
I admit, I was one of the biggest CJ2K advocates coming into this season. I debated for over a month whether or not I'd take Brady or Chris Johnson at pick #5 (if the big 3 RBs and Rodgers were taken)
. I went with CJ and felt good about it. I've always loved taking players who have had great success in the past and are coming off of bad years. Everyone knows, the big contract, the hold out, there's no way Chris Johnson could repeat 2011 in 2012 right?
Well, we're two weeks in, and as a CJ supporter, I'm starting to look at unloading him asap before he loses all of his value. In the first two weeks, he has less than 25 yards rushing. I'm pretty sure if you let me suit up, I can carve out 13 yards a game.
So you're probably thinking, come on man, it's been two weeks. I hear ya, and as a huge supporter of CJ, I kind of want to wait it out too. But here are the things I don't like:
1. Play Calling
The play calling has been awful these first two weeks. If you look back at Cj's 2K year, he was being used in all aspects of the offense. Screen passes, dump offs, putting him in motion out wide - GETTING HIM INTO OPEN SPACE. So far this year, they're giving up on CJ and not getting him involved enough in the open field.
2. Coming From Behind
Now I understand that when you're coming from behind, the RB isn't going to get as much action. Jake Locker looked good in the pre season, but so far in the regular season, he looks as scared and frantic as I do when I get forced to go to haunted houses around Halloween. The Titans should realize that they do not have a lot to work with on offense. They have young talent with Locker, Wright, Britt, Washington and Damian Williams, but they need to get CJ more involved in the passing game if they have any shot at winning games.
3. Jake Locker
Like I said above, he looked great in the pre season. He'll definitely improve as the year goes on, but he isn't providing any type of threat to defenses - which means stacked boxes.
Overall, I'd like to stay patient and hope CJ picks it up. But less than 25 yards in two contests is just too alarming. I'm going to try and salvage CJ's trade value before it plummets as soon as possible.
Discuss with your comments below. I'd love to hear from other CJ owners and potential buyers.
Matt Forte Suffers High Ankle Sprain
Here we are again. Last week it was Fred Jackson of the Bills and this week, just one game into this week, we have lost another potential RB1 in Matt Forte. The High Ankle Sprain, which diagnosis co
uld change for both better or worse, is looking to keep Forte out around 4 weeks. If that is the case he will miss games against the St. Louis Rams, Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars, then have the bye week to prepare for his return against the Detroit Lions. While the Bears are looking to find positive test results, Matt Forte owners should be looking towards next week and how they plan on replacing him in their lineups.
It goes without saying that you start by looking to see if Michael Bush (78%) is currently on the waiver wire or not. If he is you have found your answer, however, with Jackson's injury last week he was a popular addition to many rosters. The Arizona Cardinals hold a nice long term solution to fill your RB position with Ryan Williams who is currently just 47% owned for some reason. With "starter" Beanie Wells bothered by a hamstring injury, Williams is due to see an increase in workload against a new and improved Patriots defense, but he is worth the risk!
The Pittsburgh Steelers also offer two decent options in Jonathan Dwyer (28%) and Isaac Redman (55%). It is hard to judge which back will get more carries but C.J. Spiller tore up the Jets defense last week so either back could put up DECENT numbers.
After searching for Williams, Dwyer and Redman, look for Pierre Thomas of the New Orleans Saints. Currently just 48% owned in Yahoo leagues and is always a solid option, even though the Saints have multiple weapons on offense.
We will keep you updated with the latest news on Forte but we want to hear how you plan on fixing your roster! Leave all questions, thoughts and concerns in the comment section!
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AFC South Quick Hits after Week 1
3 Fantasy Muffs
• Chris Johnson- Still not what he once was to fantasy two years ago
• Andrew Luck- 3 INTs in week 1 didn’t expect Manning numbers but he can do better.
• Anyone in Jax
- This team is B A D
3 Fantasy Locks
• Arian Foster- No Kidding even with the knee he played like the #1 FF Back that he is
• Andre Johnson- Still a top WR and it helps to have Arian Foster
• Matt Schaub- So many weapons, all he needs to do is not turn the ball over
3 Fantasy Look-Outs
• Blaine Gabbert- Great week 1 (even though it was the Vikings) might be a sign of things to come.
• Kenny Britt- expecting 15-20 snaps but we should get to see how healthy he is
• Donald Brown- Good start in week one, might end up being a solid RB2 this season
3 Fade Aways
• MJD- Last year he seemed to lose a step. He didn’t look very good last week
• CJ64 -Chris Johnson total projected rushing yards at this point 64 yards.
• Any AFC South TE outside of Owen Daniels
Are You Underestimating New England’s Defense?
The only thing I hate listening to more than someone who isn’t from New England abusing the use of “Wicked Retahded”, is hearing people talk about how good the Patriots are at turning washed up vetera
ns into draft picks.
As a Miami Dolphins supporter, it’s insanely frustrating to watch other NFL franchises hand New England’s upper management the tools they need to replenish their roster year after year, but I guess that’s what Miami did when they traded Wes Welker to their division rivals back in 2007.
Well thanks to trades involving the Bengals, Broncos, Raiders, and Packers, the Patriots were able to stock up on 6 defensive players in the 2012 Draft, including DT Chandler Jones (Syracuse) and LB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) in the first round.
New England now has the 8th youngest team in the NFL and a defense that looks considerably better than the unit that ranked 31st in total defense each of the last two seasons.
Sure the Patriots played the Titans Week 1, but you can’t tell me you expected them hold Chris Johnson to just 4 yards on 11 carries. I’ll be the first to admit the so-called the threat of “CJ2K” was one of the reasons I ignored the Pats D and offered up “8 Reasons Why You Should Be Starting Minnesota’s Defense” last week.
I may be clueless when it comes to predicting Chris Johnson’s fantasy future; but I do know that the Patriots D/ST is available in over 65% of ESPN leagues and, based on what I saw last week, you should be starting them at home against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend.
No matter what format you're playing in, here’s why you shouldn’t underestimate the potential of New England’s defense in Week 2:
Arizona will likely be without starting QB John Skelton this week. He may miss up to a month with a low-ankle sprain, paving the way for Kevin Kolb to justify the cost of his 6-year, $65 million contract.
Apparently Arizona Head Coach Ken Wisenhunt isn’t sold because he hasn’t ruled out the possibility of starting Skelton on Sunday. Either way the QB situation in Arizona worth exploiting this week.
In 2011 the Cardinals had a combined QB rating of 73.90 and only threw 21 TD passes.
Despite finishing the season ranked second to last in total defense, the New England Patriots intercepted 23 passes in 2011 (2nd overall).
If Arizona falls behind early in the game, they will be forced to use an all out passing attack that will create more opportunities for sacks and turnovers.
Last year the Cardinals allowed the 2nd most sacks in the NFL (54).
Last week the Arizona turned the ball over twice against Seattle (1 FUM, 1 INT) and allowed one sack.
The Patriots recorded 2 sacks and forced two turnovers against the Titans (1 INT & the Hightower TD / fumble recovery).
For what it’s worth the Patriots have won 15 of their last 17 home openers (10-0 at Gillette Stadium). They have also won their last 5 games against the Cardinals.
Thanks for reading & good luck this week!
Travis Rowe is a First Year Boss and also writes about the mental aspects of fantasy sports at GoProFantasySports.com
Be sure to check out http://www.squidoo.com/fantasy-sports-strategy and follow him on Twitter @GoProFS24
How did you replace Fred Jackson?
Please note this article was written on Monday!
Fred Jackson Out at least 3 Weeks
Not only did the Buffalo Bills get beat ever so badly by their division rival, the New York Jets, but
they lost BOTH Fred Jackson (98 % owned Yahoo) and David Nelson who is done for the season (8%). Fred Jackson, who also missed the last 6 weeks of last season will miss at least the next 3 weeks after taking a shot to the knees from hard hitting LaRon Landry. It looked like a season ending injury while watching it live and you can take a look at it here.
With so many owners relying on Fred Jackson to be their RB1 this season, there is going to be a ton of Waiver Wire and trade action in your league this week. If you are involved in any transaction revolving around this remember, YOU HAVE THE UPPER HAND, unless of course you are the one who lost Fred Jackson. If that is the case, do not expect people to feel bad for you or make a trade that does not strongly benefit them. You are going to have to be bold in your offer if you want to trade for a running back.
Start with C.J. Spiller (70%) who rushed for 169 yards and had two BIG time runs, one that went for a TD, against the Jets defense.
Redskins rookie Alfred Morris (28%) is a RB in Mike Shannahan's offense, but he is most likely the best available RB in your league. However, he is the most popular player being claimed off waivers!
Dexter McCluster (13%) is the next guy to put a claim in on as he caught 6 passes for 82 yards against the Falcons and was targeted a team high 10 times! McCluster also has the rare RB, WR position eligibility.
If you are in a 10 man league, or a league that is not as competitive, look to add Michael Bush (72%) who scored twice for the Bears or Steven Ridley (80%) of the Patriots, who rushed for 125 yards and scored a TD against the Titans. Also owners in any other league format should look for Ridley, but it is highly unlikely he is available.
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Panic mode for Welker Owners?
Should you be worried about Welker's Production this year?
After a 3-catch 14-yard performance in his team’s opener, many Welker owners are nervous about what his role will be this year. W
ill he become a player that is only used on rotation, will he see less targets as the Pats move toward a TE centered offence? Will this become a more balanced offensive team after the emergence of Ridley? The answer to all of these are… I don’t know…. Nobody knows…. Belichick is the bane of many fantasy owners. He changes game plans and roles of players as often as I change my socks.
That being said; Welker owners should not freak out just yet, this is the first game of the season and we need to ride this out for a few more games before we sell “Ole Faithful” down the river. While Welker was not available for 1/3 of the offensive snaps on Sunday, he was there for 19 of the 23 redzone snaps the Pats had. Those 4 snaps were inside the 5 yard line and receivers seldom are in those situations. Welker is also working with a new partner in Edelman and needs to get into a rhythm with him in order to let Brady be Brady. The Pats also took control of this game early and never needed to push the gas, why push your aging stars if it is not needed? The Pats only passed the ball 31 times, compared to last year when they eclipsed 35 pass attempts in 17 of 19 games.
The Pats also have a pair of monster TEs that still garner a huge portion of Brady’s attention. Teams are slowly figuring out how to guard against these SUPER TIGHT ENDS, but for the most part they still are able to run Rickshaw on the field. Once the Pats play a team with a solid LB core, and the TEs are bottled up, expect Welker to see more looks. Gronk and Hernandez are the pistons that drive this offense, but Welker is the oil that keeps everything from grinding to a halt. Don’t put Welker on the blocks just yet, and if you see him there grab him on the cheap from an owner with no faith!!
In other fantasy news, Sanchez might be worth a second look. Perhaps he and Tebow can co-exist! The Raiders looked awful, as they should have, there were three players on that team that were signed on Thursday PM to fill in for injured starters. McFadden need to get Ford, Moore and Heyward-Bey back to take some of the pressure off of his fragile body. I still think the Raiders and Palmer will be A-OK. Kevin Smith looked like the player many projected him to be several years ago. If they can win with Smith after Stafford’s performance on Sunday, he is a must start player every week. Finally a shout-out to my beloved Broncos and a solid win over the Steelers! No clear cut favorite between Thomas, Decker and Tamme but After that 71 yard catch and run……. I have my thoughts on the subject. Thanks and good luck this week!
Please follow my twitter @aspenaidan or email me with any questions or comments awynn@fancandy.com
www.fancandy.com
Too many options in Carolina?
It's the question that always comes up when teams seem to "load up" with offensive players. It looked as if Cam Newton wanted to spread the ball out to everyone on the field, though WR Steve Smith di
d get the upper hand in targets and receptions. If you drafted guys like Greg Olsen, Brandon LaFell, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart are you in panic mode already?
Have no fear, it's only been one week. Greg Schiano and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers used a great Wrap and Roll Technique to keep Cam Newton and the offensive line in check. It's something that the Panthers hadn't seen and don't anticipate seeing again until the Bucs visit BofA Stadium. There is hope for all the players mentioned above as the season progresses. The Saints defense is not good, the Giants secondary is shotty at best, and the Falcons are not stout on defense. These three teams are who the Panthers will face over the next three weeks.
There may not be much concern with the passing game, but judging from DeAngelo's poor performance running the ball, there may be reason for concern. When Jonathan Stewart returns, expect him to take the heavier load once completely healthy over the near 30 year old Williams. Cam Newton and Steve Smith will prove why they are legitimate high-value fantasy picks, especially this week going against the New Orleans Saints at home.
Keep Cam Newton, Steve Smith and Greg Olsen as your starters, but be cautious of what you do with DeAngelo Williams the next few weeks. His value will depend on whether Jonathan Stewart suits up on game day, until we see that it's hard not to at least consider Williams as a RB2.
Monday Night Football!
If you are like most then you probably will be watching in your bedroom/basement alone and want to connect with the outside world! Well ESPN Primetime Payoff has allowed us to do this now! Join our
group during tonights games and place prop bets with house money!
Get in the action now:
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8 Reasons You Should Be Starting Minnesota's Defense
If you’re like me, you waited until your second to last pick to draft a defense. It’s not that we see no value in acquiring top-rated defenses, we just know timing is everything. While our opponents
were drafting the 49ers’ D in the middle rounds, we were grabbing our 4th and 5th running backs.
We are D/ST Streamers.
As Streamers, we are fully prepared to put in the effort it takes to work the waiver wire. After all there are dozens of match-ups against the Dolphins, Browns, Rams, and Colts to exploit this year!
Supposing you weren’t able to land the Texans, Eagles, Lions, or Bears for Week 1, here are 8 reasons you should be starting Minnesota’s Defense at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
1. The Vikings were tied for first in sacks (50) last year.
2. They were also tied for 2nd in forced fumbles (20). They recovered 15.
3. The Vikings only gave up an average of 107 yards on the ground last season.
4. The Vikings only allowed a RB to top 89.5 rushing yards in Minnesota twice last season.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew may only see 8-10 touches.
6. Minnesota allowed just 3.9 YPC last year, sixth-best in the NFL.
7. The Jags were the league’s worst passing offense last season, averaging only 136.2 passing yards per game.
8. Percy Harvin will be a factor in Minnesota’s return game. The Vikings’ D/ST has added value in leagues that award points for return TD’s.
Be sure to post any last minute sit/start questions in our Polls section. Our Bosses will be working around the clock to help you make more informed decisions. You can also shoot me a question on Twitter @GoProFS24.
Thanks for reading & good luck this week!
Is Ogletree worth it?
Hello fellow fantasy pugilists,
Ok now that we have our first stellar performance of the year by a relatively unranked player, we will see people drop proven players to pick these guys up. I am
of course talking about Kevin Ogletree and his standout performance in week one vs. a Fantasy top 10 Giants D. The third year wideout laid down some solid numbers with 8 for 144 and 2 TDs. A great performance by any standards. Now comes the question; should I pick up Mr. Ogletree? That really depends on what you have going on.
Quick answer: no. The chances that he becomes the number one or two receiver over Austin or Bryant are slim to none. Theses are two of the premiere receivers in the game today. Injuries and off field problems have plagued the Cowboys receiving core the past few years, but this year looks to be different. Strict rules in place and a new training staff in Dallas will hopefully keep Austin and Bryant on the field and scoring your team TDs. DeMarco Murray also came alive in the second half of the game to allow Romo downfield looks and in turn opened the door for Ogletree who was the third checkdown option for his QB. This third option is almost always going to be Bryant or when healthy, Jason Whitten, this leaves little to no room for Ogletree to put up solid fantasy numbers in anything but a 14 man league. So yes Ogletree is a very trendy pick right now, but do go out and drop a solid number one or two player for a one week wonder. Look at the long haul, you may have a player who won’t put up a TD till week three or four, but by playoff time he will have 10 TDs and close to 1000 yards and be much more important to your squad in the long run.
Long Answer: maybe. If you have room on your roster and only need him as a bye week Band-Aid, sure go ahead and grab him. But be careful on who you drop to pick him up. Do you have a second kicker? If yes, then grab Ogletree and let him sit on the bench. In several of my leagues I have seen players going bananas over this guy. Dropping Sidney Rice (clear number one in Seattle), Jonathan Stewart (number 2 in a two back system in Carolina), Jacoby Ford (number 2 receiver in Oakland) and Burleson (number 2 in Detroit) are the moves I have seen to grab this guy. In the long run any of these guys should put up better and more constiant numbers over the whole year. Now Ogletree could have a monster breakout season and become the clear cut number one and favorite target of Mr. Romo, but are you willing to gamble your season on that? I’m not.
P.S. on a side note…. Perhaps you should look at grabbing the Saint D, now that they have all of the guns back!! Welcome back guys!
Who should i start?
Im in a 6 man league for 10 bucks lol. who do i start at wr pick 2?
greg jennings brandon marshall aj green vincent jackson dez bryant and miles austin
WR's: Where Is The Value?
We all have our favorites WR's that we love to draft every fantasy football season. Where is the best value for the upcoming 2012 season though, I can assure you that it's not in the first two rounds
. Don't get me wrong, I love Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, but the WR's are so deep this year that it's not necessary to draft a WR in the first two rounds.
I understand the value of a top-tier WR, but if you take a deep look at this year's WR class, why waste a pick on a big name guy? There are plenty of names in this year's class that you should highly consider that you can draft after the second round.
Surprisingly, Steelers WR Antonio Brown has been over-looked. What is the reason? I honestly can't tell you. I can tell you this however, he has become Big Ben's favorite target and is the most deadly receiver on the Steelers roster. Yes, Mike Wallace may be a bigger name, but Brown will do what Wallace will not and cannot do. He will run across the middle and split defenders to create an open zone. Despite the Steelers objective to go back to the "ground and pound" philosophy, don't overlook Antonio Brown.
Where is the love for Greg Jennings, Steve Smith, Steve Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, and Marques Colston? These players ADP has dropped significantly since last year and there is no reason why. Each of these players are a featured WR on their teams but somehow, someway they've been overlooked. I can understand an injury concern, I can even understand a lack of commitment due to a contract dispute. However, you can't underestimate their fantasy value. Don't look at these players thinking whose on the other side of the ball, each of these players play a pivotal part in their team's offense and have absolutely earned a huge fantasy value.
Let's not forget third year receivers, the year where WR's historically break out to have huge seasons. Demaryius Thomas, Brandon LaFell, and Arrelious Benn are all under-valued for this upcoming season. Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, and Josh Freeman are all capable to hit these three players and they will all be significant as far as fantasy is concerned. Not only do these three have wide-outs to take attention away from them week in and week out, but all three have the skills to make big plays when the ball comes their way. Third year WR's may be the most over-looked aspect while considering a fantasy draft. As previously stated, third year WR's historically have great seasons, there is no reason to think otherwise this year with these players.
What does the Pre-Season mean>?
Last Sunday I watched the Broncos 1st team offense dismantle the 49ers 1st team defense. I know it’s pre-season and people say it does not matter. But it does matter, it matters to the players tryin
g to secure a starting spot, the players trying to secure a long term contract for the future and to the players trying to make the team and fulfill their dream of playing in the NFL. That being said, my point is that the 1st quarter of the game when both teams sent out their best on both sides of the ball for the last time in the pre-season, Denver looked great and the 49ers look average.
What does that mean? Is the 49ers D no longer a lock for a top three D in fantasy terms? No way, the 49ers are still going to be awesome and look like the Ravens of 2000 in terms of point production. They should still be a 6/7th round pick in a 12 man league and 7/8th round in a 10 man league. Remember once a D comes off the board the next several ranked Ds follow shortly. If you miss out on the 49ers, Texans, Steelers, Eagles and Ravens my advice is to wait until later rounds and get a ball hawking D that will force a ton of turnovers but also could quite possibly give up a ton of points. The Lions, Packers, Pats, Giants and Bears all fit in that category.
The problems the 49ers had with the Broncos might have been pre-season jitters with some new personnel in place or it could have been that Broncos O has finally started to gel and that was a glimpse of what we can expect this year. I believe it’s the latter; the Broncos will be back and will put up a ton of points. With Manning completing passes to 11 different receivers (and backs) this pre-season it shows that he is not afraid to spread the ball around. He has however shown that he does like to target certain people when he gets into the red zone. Decker and Tamme are going to be the beneficiaries of these TD (I hope there are many!!) tosses. Manning had looked shaky at times in the 1st two games; tossing several picks and zero TD passes. Two of the picks however were results of tipped passes and one was the result of a great defensive play by a savvy DB. The third game Manning looked like a machine marching the boys down the field with a great mix of running, passing and play action plays. He went 10-12 for 122 and 2TD 0 Picks. Solid numbers against a number 1 D no matter how you slice it.
The Broncos might not be an offensive juggernaut like the Lions, Pats, Packers, Falcons or Saints, but they will put up some numbers and make anyone who takes a Broncos player happy with the Value you get from them. Manning is a 5/6th round pick, Decker, Thomas, Tamme are all 6/7th round picks. If any of these guys are floating around after the 7th round, steal them, grand theft points!! McGahee should be thought of as no better than a back-up RB in any standard scorning league.
One last word of advice, don’t ever take a kicker until you’re last round.
Can Russell Wilson Win OROY?
I wouldn't be surprised if Russell Wilson wins Offensive Rookie of the Year. He has the best team of the rookie QBs and plays in such a weak division. Wilson will be a VERY POPULAR addition to teams
in the early weeks.
2012-13 Fantasy Football: A Fantasy Draft BREAKDOWN
I have now drafted my 3rd Fantasy Football Team of the 2012 season, in a Live Online draft; 1QB 2RB 3WR 1T 1W/T flex. I ended up with the 7th overall pick in a 12-Team Standard Scoring and Settings L
eague.
Away We Go!
Picks 1-6 – Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson.
My Pick #7 – WR Calvin Johnson: With the #7 pick I had hoped that Chris Johnson would fall to me, so I could draft a former 2000 yard rusher looking to bounce back from a mediocre season; I would have loved to start off my team with one of the most electric RBs in recent memory. Unfortunately CJ was taken with the #6 overall pick, leaving me to go with a new strategy. I was debating over Maurice Jones-Drew and Calvin Johnson; I am not a big fan of going WR in the first round and was seriously thinking of grabbing MJD, but the length of this hold out finally has me a little concerned; instead I go with Megatron. I do not expect another 1600 yards with 16 TDs, but I so expect a minimum of 1300 yards and double digit TDs this year, totals hard to come by for modern RBs as well.
Picks 8-17 – Maurice Jones-Drew, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Darren McFadden, Larry Fitzgerald, Trent Richardson, Jimmy Graham, Matt Forte, Rob Gronkowski, Cam Newton.
My Pick #18 – QB Matthew Stafford: Going into the draft my strategy was to grab an RB in the first round and them draft a QB in the second round, targeting Cam Newton and Matt Stafford. Despite the fact I ended up with Megatron instead of an RB, my draft outlook didn’t change much. Cam Newton was just drafted along with the pair of elite TEs, so to me drafting Stafford here was a no brainer. In his first full season Stafford went for 5000+ yards, something I think he can do again this year. He has the best WR in the league in Calvin and another up and coming talent in Titus Young, who the team is raving about in training camp. Johnson and Stafford should act as a great backbone to my fantasy team.
Picks 19-30 – Jamaal Charles, Julio Jones, Adrian Peterson, Roddy White, A.J. Green, Marshawn Lynch, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Demarco Murray, Brandon Marshall, Steven Jackson, Darren Sproles.
My Pick #31 – RB Fred Jackson: RB can be the trickiest position, as it is easily the shallowest of all the positions. I am hoping for a top-3 pick in every draft I do so that I can lock up Foster, Rice or McCoy. Coming into round 3 without a RB, I knew I needed to grab one here or risk being very weak at the position. Jackson was a stud last year before going out with a leg injury, as he was averaging 5.5 yards per carry and on pace for a career season. Jackson is going to be the RB you don’t jump out of your seat to grab, but will be a great player come the season. I see Jackson as a MUCH better choice than those who would have been left for me in the next round.
Picks 32-41 – Andre Johnson, Doug Martin, Michael Turner, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks.
My Pick #42 – WR Jeremy Maclin: At this point in the draft I find it is often WR stacked. Example: I was one pick away from grabbing Hakeem Nicks as my WR2 in 4th round! I missed Nicks unfortunately but ended up with another WR I think can make a run for a top-10 finish at the position. I am expected a much better overall performance from Michael Vick the year and think Maclin will be along for that ride as his favorite target. I am hoping for Maclin to grab double-digit TDs while ended up anywhere between 1000-1200 yards.
Picks 43-54 – Marques Coltson, Brandon Lloyd, Miles Austin, Michael Vick, Reggie Bush, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Kenny Britt, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Johnson.
My Pick #55 – TE Aaron Hernandez: I still needed an RB2 at this point, but was again not impressed by the options available. Frank Gore was a little tempting but I feel as though time and durability are catching up to him and the 49’ers have other RBs than can start using more and more. Hernandez I view as a top-5 TE and should help me win the TE matchup most weeks. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Gronkowski saw a bit of a statistical regression while Hernandez improves a bit.
Picks 56-67 – Frank Gore, Antonio Brown, Vernon Davis, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Fred Davis, Eric Decker, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Jermichael Finley.
Pick #66 – RB Isaac Redman: There are a few questions about Isaac Redman, namely will he play the full season, or will he be replaced by Mendenhall come week 10 or something like that. At the time I wasn’t really worried about that, I just needed a good RB2 and saw Redman as my best bet. He should be a 3-down RB for the Steelers until Mendenhall can come back, and the Steelers have some question in their passing game as well (No Wallace at the moment). I expect Redman to be a solid RB2 for at least the first half of the season.
Picks 67-78 - Pierre Garcon, C.J. Spiller, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis, Roy Helu, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Beanie Wells, Jason Witten, Torrey Smith, Robert Griffin III, Reggie Wayne.
My Pick #79 – WR Reggie Wayne: I have been targeting Reggie Wayne more and more in drafts since seeing Luck in training camp in his first pre-season action. During the offseason Wayne had been relegated to the status of backup WR, often being drafted as a WR4 or WR5 in almost all mock drafts I had done. But now that people have seen Andrew Luck play a bit, and look very good doing it, expectations for Wayne are also going up. I have always considered Wayne a WR3 for this year, and think he will be a great one at that. I am expecting much better stats than he had last year with Painter and Orlovsky.
Picks 80-89 – Robert Meachem, Willis McGahee, Stevan Ridley, Peyton Hillis, Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice, Denarius Moore, Jahvid Best, Greg Little, Santonio Holmes.
My Pick #90 – WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: I have been targeting Heyward-Bey in just about every draft I do; as long as I can grab Bey as a backup, I won’t be passing him up. In the final 5 weeks of the 2011 season, with Carson Palmer as his QB, Bey grabbed 3 of his total 4 TDs on the season, and had 2 of his 3 100-yard games. With Carson Palmer under the helm for an entire season, Heyward-Bey has a chance to be inside the top-20 at his position. I can easily see myself starting Heyward-Bey over Reggie Wayne depending on the matchup.
Picks 91-102 – Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Ingram, DeAngelo Williams, Malcolm Floyd, Michael Crabtree, Justin Blackmon, San Francisco D/ST, David Wilson, Jacob Tamme, Pittsburgh D/ST, Kevin Smith, Ben Tate.
My Pick #103 – RB Mikel LeShoure: The bad news is that LeShoure is going to miss the first two games of the season due to suspension, but the good news is that he is apparently looking and feeling good after last seasons Achilles injury. My main reason for drafting Mikel is that I don’t see Jahvid Best becoming the Lions starting RB this season and Kevin Smith is good, but not great while also being a huge injury risk each game. I am hoping that by mid-season, when Isaac Redman’s starting RB job may be in question, LeShoure will have emerged as The Lions go to back.
Picks 104-113 – Baltimore D/ST, Nate Washington, Anquan Boldin, Donald Brown, Chicago, Mason Crosby, Houston D/ST, Brandon Pettigrew, Philadelphia D/ST, Sebastian Janikowski.
My Pick #114 – QB Carson Palmer: I was very happy to grab Stafford as my QB in the second round, but my memory is good enough to remember that he is also a bit of an injury risk; 2011 was his first full season in his first 3 years in the league. Palmer had his struggles last year throwing quite a few picks in his first few games back, but was able to improve as the season went on. If Stafford does end up missing time again this season I am hoping Palmer will emerge as a valuable fill in. He does have a talented young and fast WR corps in Bey, Moore and Ford.
Picks 115-126 – Kyle Rudolph, Austin Collie, David Akers, Lance Moore, Jermaine Gresham, Stephen Gostkowski, Michael Bush, Toby Gerhart, Green Bay D/ST, Mike Williams, Tony Gonzalez, Randall Cobb.
My Pick #127 – WR Titus Young: Young is the #3 WR in Detroit behind Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson and is entering his sophomore season in the league. He has the privilege of playing across from Johnson, meaning he the coverage rarely shifts his direction, he was able to take advantage of this in his rookie year to the tune of 606 yards and 6 TDs. This year he will be battling Burleson for the WR2 spot for the Lions and I would not be surprised if he was able to earn the role early on in the season. Burleson has openly spoken about how he is willing to, and enjoying teaching Young the facets of the game.
Picks 128-137 – Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Williams, Jaquizz Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Santana Moss, Andrew Luck, New York Jets D/ST, Danny Amendola, James Starks.
My Pick #138 – D/ST New York Giants: I usually draft a D/ST with my second to last pick of the draft, but wasn’t very impressed with the available backups on my draft board, and felt very confident in my current backups ability to have an impact. I took a look at the D/STs available and grabbed the Giants off the board. The Giants were a sack machine last year with 48 total sacks, but struggled in keeping the score down. I am expecting more of the same in the sack category with Pierre-Paul, Tuck and Umenyiora terrorizing opposing QBs again this year, and am hoping they can keep the scoring totals down a bit more.
Picks 139-150 – Isaiah Pead, Jared Cook, Ronnie Hillman, Dan Bailey, Randy Moss, Tim Hightower, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Felix Jones, Andy Dalton, Evan Royster, Kendall Wright
My Pick #151 – WR Alshon Jeffery: I drafted Jeffery on a flier, hoping that he will end up being a favorite redzone target of Cutler, and maybe even surpass a few of the other guys on the depth chart, such as Hester, Knox and Bennett.
Picks 152-161 – Owen Daniels, Cedric Benson, LaGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen, Brent Celek, Michael Floyd, Mike Goodson, Sam Bradford, Vincent Brown, Laurent Robinson.
My Pick #162 – WR Doug Baldwin: Another WR entering his second year in the league, Baldwin had a very good rookie season catching 51 passes for 788 yards and 4 TDs. I expect Matt Flynn to be the Seahawk’s weeks one starter and to be a better passer than Jackson or Whitehurst ever were. With an improvement at QB and another season of growth, Baldwin could be a very serviceable WR3 or flex option eventually. I also don’t expect Sidney Rice to be capable of putting together a full season, which should help Baldwin become the WR1 for Seattle.
Picks 163-174 – Coby Fleener, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nate Burleson, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, Mari Manningham, Davone Bess, Buffalo D/ST, Rueben Randle, Dallas Clark, Denver D/ST, Brandon LaFell.
My Pick #175 – TE Martellus Bennett: I am very happy with Hernandez as my TE, but still needed someone for bye week and incase of injury, and noticed Martellus Bennett was still on the board. Bennett was grabbed by the Giants off the Cowboys this off-season in order to replace Jake Ballard, who was able to grab 600 yards and 4 TDs in his rookie season with the Giants and in only 14 games. I have ready a number of positive reviews of Bennett and his potential; he should be the Giants TE1 come the start of the season.
Picks #176-185 – Brian Quick, Alex Henery, Jon Baldwin, Alex Green, Mike Tolbert, Jacoby Ford, Jake Locker, Steve Smith (Rams), Rashad Jennings, Mark Sanchez.
My Pick #186 – WR Leonard Hankerson: In his 2rd career start, facing the Miami Dolphins, Hankerson had caught 8 passes for 106 yards when he went down for the rest of the season with a hip injury. Despite all the other names at WR now on the Redskins, Hankerson could just be the most physically talented of them all. This pick is me hoping that it just might be true.
Picks #187-198 – Seattle D/ST, Terrell Owens, Stephen Hill, James Jones, Robbie Gould, Kellen Winslow, Detroit D/ST, Robert Turbin, New England D/ST, Dan Carpenter, Kendall Hunter, Jason Hanson.
My Pick #199 – K Rob Bironas: Needed a kicker, Bironas has a monster leg; Drafted.
Picks 200-204 – Neil Rackers, Brian Hartline, Greg Zuerlein, Matt Bryant, Mike Nugent.
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My Final Roster: QB Matt Stafford, RB Fred Jackson, RB Isaac Redman, WR Calvin Johnson, WR Jeremy Maclin, WR Reggie Wayne, TE Aaron Hernandez, D/ST NY Giants, K Rob Bironas, BNCH Carson Palmer, BNCH Mikel LeShoure, BNCH Darrius Heyward-Bey, BNCH Titus Young, BNCH Leonard Hankerson, BNCH Martellus Bennett.
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Overall, I think I am pretty damn happy with my roster. My biggest question mark is at the RB2 spot, but I think Redman should be good enough until I an start plugging in LeShoure. I feel very safe at WR with Young and Hayward-Bey on my bench, so I will be hunting the next big thing at RB all season long. My season could also be riding on the health of Matt Stafford’s shoulder.
What do you think of my team? Where am I strongest, where am I weakest? Constructive criticism is always needed to get better!
Keep in touch with me on Twitter! @Blackie_Mike (koopafantasy)
Hands down Easiest Way to Collect Money for My League
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blog.crowdtilt.com/post/28413091919/fantasy-football-crowdtilt
Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?
“Is the juice worth the squeeze” Is a question many fantasy football owners subconsciously ask themselves before drafting a player, regardless of what round it is. For those of you unfamiliar with th
is phrase it’s common meaning is “does the reward outweigh the punishment”, and this year in particular we find ourselves with a number of the high profile running backs staring us square in the eyes daring us to take a leap of faith on them. In this write up I will showcase some of the top RB’s in the world of fantasy football who I believe will carry or let down many fantasy owners this season. I used MyFantasyLeague.com 12 team real ADP database to base my values.
Chris Johnson – Johnson let a lot of people down in 2011 , after holding out until the final week of the preseason he posted career lows in rushing yards (1047), yards per game (65.4), yards per carry(4.00) and also touchdowns (4). Now coming into 2012 he is considered by many to be a high risk pick…. Well I’m buying into him again in 2012. Why? Because the level of talent at the RB position is skewed with the RBBC approach many NFL teams are going to and Johnson still finds himself as the lead dog in Tennessee, so the opportunities will be there. And also unlike many other RB’s who are being drafted around him he’s never been plagued by injuries. Will he have another season like 2009? Probably not, that was a SPECIAL year but I think he could easily duplicate his 2010 season. With a current ADP of 9.3 I would have a hard time passing on him with the 4th pick of the draft.
Darren McFadden- McFadden has frustrated many fantasy owners throughout his time in the NFL. The guy has an immense amount of talent and could easily be a top RB in the league if he can stay off the injury report in which he hasn’t been able to do yet in his NFL career. I think McFadden exemplifies this write up’s title “Is the juice worth the squeeze”. If you look back at the first 6 games of the 2011 season when he was healthy he averaged an impressive 101 rushing yards, 5.4 ypc and 5 TD’s. Those stats alone show us McFadden has plenty of “juice” to offer fantasy owners. But the question remains, can he play a whole 16? Well I’m buying into McFadden one more time this season. With a current ADP of 12.3 and being the 5th RB off the board I find his upside to tempting not to pull the trigger on him. Depending on how your draft starts out I would start to consider RUN DMC as high as the 5th pick.
Maurice Jones-Drew- Jones-Drew was outstanding in 2011 and has been one of the most consistent RB’s in the NFL throughout his career. He led the league in rushing with an impressive 1606 yards in 2011, but what might have been more impressive is that he did that even though he was constantly facing 8 and 9 man fronts from defenses due to poor Jaguars passing attack. Coming into this season many fantasy owners were already throwing up red flags about MJD after he’s posted 3 straight 300 carry seasons and is coming off a career high 386 touches (rushes+ receptions) in 2011 but I was still on the MJD train. Well now we can add to that list of red flags, MJD is currently in the middle of a lengthy holdout and an end does not seem to be in sight as both agent & owner are both standing their ground. We’ve all seen in the past how missing training camps can affect a player’s performance and this holdout is starting to worry me. It pains me to say this but with his current ADP being 14.4 and him being the 7th RB off the board I would pass on MJD and let somebody else deal with this headache.
Ryan Mathews- Mathews was one of the hottest names coming into this fantasy football season after having an impressive second season in which he posted 1091 rushing yards and also added 50 receptions. His goal line vulture Mike Tolbert is gone and he was going to be the workhorse for the Chargers backfield. Many fantasy owners believed a HUGE season was in his horizon as was evident if you looked at his ADP at the time (6.3). Now after 1 carry in his first preseason game he finds himself with a broken clavicle and a plummeting ADP. He’s currently going off the board at 24.86 which puts him at the end of the 2nd to beginning of the 3rd round and is the 12th RB off the board. Before doing my research I had every intention to tell you to avoid Mathews but now his ADP intrigues me, I personally think if you get a player with Mathews talent at the end of the 2nd round even if he misses the first two weeks of the season it’s worth the risk. He has elite RB upside and could be the steal of the draft. I would consider taking him in the middle of the second round.
Adrian Peterson- No question Adrian Peterson has been nothing short of sensational since he entered the NFL in 2007. He only played in 12 games (really 10.5) in 2011 and still managed to rush for 973 yards and scored 13 TD’s. Now coming into 2012 he finds himself coming off major ACL/MCL surgery and way ahead of the normal recovery schedule. Reports are that he will be ready for week 1 of the NFL season, and I do think he will be (he’s an animal) but I would almost guarantee a limited amount of touches for much of the first half of the season. My reasoning for being lower on Peterson than Mathews is simple. Mathews did not incur an injury that will affect his explosiveness and ability to make cuts and AP did. I know there’s the argument that Wes Welker showed us a player can come back after such an injury and perform at a high level but again we’re talking apples and oranges with those two positions. Peterson’s ADP is 22.8 which puts him at the end of the 2nd round and he’s currently the 9th RB off the board. Personally I hope I’m back on the AP bandwagon next year but as for this year I’m staying away.
Ahmad Bradshaw- Bradshaw missed 4 games during the 2011 but if you look at his stat line (besides TD’s) it looks like he missed much more time. He averaged a career low 3.9ypc while and only rushing for 659 yards while dealing with knee and ankle problems. With Brandon Jacobs now gone many people believed the Giants backfield duties would rest solely on the shoulders of Bradshaw but the Giants went out and spent a 1st round pick on the talented David Wilson. With the Giants relying more heavily on the pass and the seemingly inevitable toe/knee/ankle injuries that are slowing him down as are evident by his 2011 ypc. I see his touches being limited this season. With a current ADP 38.65 and the 17th RB off the board I personally would pass on Bradshaw.
First legit draft of 2012 season
After doing about 10-15 mock drafts, I finally had the chance to draft a team for a real league yesterday. I was granted the 9th pick out of 12 total in a standard scoring league. The roster is QB/RB/
RB/WR/WR/RBorWR/TE/DEF/K. In the majority of my leagues that I have been in for the past 8-10 years, I've stuck to my "two stud RBs in first two rounds" method. It has gotten me to the playoffs every time. This time was different when I had Megatron (Calvin Johnson) fall into my lap at the 9 spot. Remembering how jaw dropping his weekly stats were, even compared to stud RBs, I couldn't pass on him. It was the first time I selected a WR in the first round since 2005 (I think) when Chad Johnson was the #1 rated WR. When the snake draft came back to me I knew I had to get that first RB no matter what. I read earlier that day that Marshawn Lynch's suspension process wouldn't be heard till after this season is finished so I knew a healthy, beastly and non-suspended Lynch would do me just fine. I was able to get Shonn Greene on my 3rd pick. He is someone who I felt was underrated. Reggie Bush last year blew minds when he topped 1k rushing yards. Guess what?! Greene know has that exact same OC. Jets are most definitely a run first offense now and Greene has zero competition to steal carries.
E Trade's Nigel Advise On How To Win
There are two dominant methods of selecting financial stocks, past performance and future expectations. Smart stock selection requires consideration of both the past and the future.
Drafti
ng the best roster of players in a Fantasy Football league requires the same balanced approach though most participants base their decisions exclusively on past performance.
The historical approach leaves many participants dismayed and confused as to how a group of former super stars, could collectively have their team performing so poorly.
The blast from the past fantasy draft, is likely to turn your dream team into the flops from the top.
If all it took to win in Fantasy Football was to draft last seasons, statistically best players, anyone could win, the game would be nothing more than a raffle.
To collect a winning roster you need players who are likely to be stars this season, and one way to increase your chances is to examine the schedules of each player you are considering.
Players on teams that are facing weak defenses, play in weak conferences is a player less likely to flop.
New England is playing in one the weakest divisions in football and has the easiest post championship schedule in history.
Houston on the other hand has a weak division but has one of the hardest schedules of the teams that made the playoffs from last season.
Two top quarterback picks based on schedule this season are Tom Brady and San Diego's Philip Rivers. Taking tight ends or receivers from these squads is also schedule smart.
This coming weekend the big draft parties will have stats geeks thinking they are smart by picking the best historical players.
You can beat them by picking the best players with the easiest schedules.
This weekend have a mutual fund mindset and remember the warning on every prospective, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Atlanta Falcons: Passing Attack
It's no surprise that the NFL is a passing league. The past few seasons however, we've thought of the Falcons offense primarily being focused around Michael Turner. Let's face it though, Turner is g
etting into the age where RB's start to become less effective and he's been over-worked hard since signing with Atlanta.
The Falcons will become the next team to throw the ball way more than they traditionally have in the past. Why wouldn't they though? They gave up a lot to draft Julio Jones in 2011, they still have Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez is still effective despite being 100 years old (he's 36, that's old for the NFL without being a QB). Expect Matt Ryan to exceed his passing yards from last season (4,177 yards) and look to throw more TD's in the red zone rather than handing the ball off to Turner.
Who will benefit more from Matt Ryan's constant pass attack? Obviously, your first answer would be Roddy White. However, I beg to differ. Julio Jones has more size, better speed, better hands, and in my opinion the better vertical leap. Look for Julio to exceed an 80 catch season for 1.200 yards and close to 10 TD's. I know that the stats will try to prove me wrong as the majority of WR's have their breakout season in their third season, not in this case though. Roddy will still get his catches (unless he drops them all) and Tony G will get his typical numbers, but this is Julio's year.
Absolutely without hesitation and without a doubt draft these players! I've had two drafts so far, I've been able to get Julio Jones and Roddy White in the third round in two seperate leagues. I even got Matty Ice in the 8th round in one league, 8th round! You don't need to draft a QB in the first round, in my opinion that's just absurd. Get your RB's and WR's in the first few rounds, then start looking at Matt Ryan starting in the 4th round (you may not get as lucky as I did).
Podcast 53- Quality Time Spent
Podcast 53- Quality Time Spent
The Asylum is back with a special Tuesday matinee. Tonight, we reveal our booms and busts, talk TO, and answer your tweets. Plus, we shout out to our 700th Tw
itter follower, @GridironExperts. Finally, we announce the winners of the free roll spots in @zbullsmoke's 20 team Toilet Bowl League. Don't miss it!
Dynamic Duos? Yes, But Which One of Them?
ShDynamic Duos? Yes, But Which One of Them?
By: Rick Briggs
The Asylum Fantasy Football Podcast
Asylumfantasyfootball.com
Wide receiving duos have been famous for a while now
. Let’s travel back a few years into the ‘70s. The question a lot of people asked then was Swann or Stallworth? Move into the 80’s and you had Duper or Clayton? Coming closer to modern times in the 90’s, there was for a short while Freeman or Sharpe (Sterling that is)?
Those were all good debate topics, but you as a fantasy owner have much more at stake than your opinion. You must draft the best players for your fantasy team to make a Super Bowl run. That is a daunting task in itself, but there are a lot of dynamic duos out there that you must pick from that have similar value. Which one of those guys should I take? Let’s look at some of the difficult decisions confronting the fantasy owner when trying to pick the best Wide Receiver from a Dynamic Duo.
Roddy White or Julio Jones: There’s a lot of buzz out there about Julio Jones, and rightly so. He has big play speed and led the Falcons in receiving yards in 6 games in 2011 and he missed 3 games due to injury. He also had a 17.8 YPC average in 2011. Roddy White again led the Falcons in receptions and receiving yards in 2011. He is Matt Ryan’s go to guy and is an elite wide receiver. He had 100 catches for 1,296 yards and 8 TDs. Now his stats were beaten badly by Megatron’s, but whose weren’t in 2011? White was 5th in receiving yards in the NFL. Even White has said that Jones is the big play guy now, but Roddy is still my receiver in Atlanta. The gap has closed dramatically in standard scoring and Jones is the guy in keeper leagues. In PPR, it is still White. Roddy’s still fairly young; he won’t turn 31 until November and has a lot of gas left in the tank. When the gap in receptions was around 40 in catches…White is still the guy Ryan leans on. They are dead even in ADP.
Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson: The question you have to ask yourself is: Can Nelson keep this up? Let’s not forget that Jennings missed 3 games due to injury and still had only 1 less reception than Nelson. Nelson put up 314 more receiving yards, and 15 TDs. Jennings in his own right put up 9 TDs in 3 less games. Jennings is more consistent and Nelson is tall and rangy. It is close here, and let’s not forget that Aaron Rodgers likes to spread it around. I say go with your gut and pick the one you want. I like Jennings, for the sole reason that I think he is more consistent in his numbers. However in terms of value, Jennings’ ADP is 2.12 while Nelson’s is 4.05……..which is the better value??? I think here it’s Nelson. Not much help? Maybe not in this one, but I am trying to get you to think about where you pick them as well as who you pick.
Miles Austin or Dez Bryant: Austin missed 6 games last year with a nagging hamstring and finished 4th on the Cowboys in receiving yards. TE Jason Witten led the team with 942 yards, leaving Bryant second with 928. Look at this two ways: 1. Bryant is entering his third year, the “Breakout” year, and should come into his own and lead the Cowboys. Or you can figure that 2. Bryant had his shot at being the leading receiver with Austin out, but was trusted less by Romo than Witten and Laurent Robinson, who had 11 TDs in 2011. This is not an easy call, but I really like Dez Bryant to come into his own…if he can keep his head on straight. Surprisingly to me, Austin’s ADP is 4.11 to Bryant’s 5.02, so although similar, I think Bryant is the way to go in any format. They are around the same size, but Bryant appears bigger and more physical on the field. If he can stay away from trouble with the law and have a good attitude, he should make fantasy owners happy this year.
Hakeem Nicks or Victor Cruz: Hakeem Nicks has not played a full season yet in his career. He is averaging 14 games per season, so if you don’t mind the 2 games lost and him being dinged up a lot; then forget the first sentence. Let’s look at last year. Nicks had 76 catches to Cruz’s 82. Cruz had 1,536 yards for an 18.7 YPC, while Nicks had 1,192 and a 15.7 YPC. 9TDs for Cruz and 7 for Nicks. These are all good numbers and that’s one reason Cruz’s ADP is 3.11 and Nicks is 4.02. They are WR1s through and through, and with Eli at the helm; plenty of opportunities will be coming their way. Can Cruz keep up with his year last year? Can Nicks actually play in 16 games? Let’s not forget his broken foot. I like Nicks a lot, but my gut keeps telling me to go for the gusto and take Cruz. I don’t think you will go wrong with either, if I’m in say the third round and both are there; I would take Cruz in any format.
Jeremy Maclin or DeSean Jackson: Both of these guys are young, talented receivers. I know DJax has that scary return threat and you should take that into consideration. I also want you to take into consideration his “Me First” attitude. He has no problem checking out of a game if he feels the need to pout. Maybe his new deal will appease him short term, I don’t trust anybody who puts his stats over his team’s success. More importantly, to compare the two in receiving percentage; that is the number of catches divided by the number of targets, Maclin’s career reception percentage is a full 10 points higher at 62.4% to 52.4%. With the difference in receptions a mere 11 between the leading receiver and the 4th leading receiver last year, it’s obvious Vick feeds his guys equally. No doubt both are full of upside; Jackson’s Yards per Reception have ranged from 15 to 22 in his career, Maclin’s are consistently around 14. Maclin’s ADP is 5.07 to Jackson’s 6.01. Will Jackson stay happy and keep his head in the game? I like Jackson’s flash, but I like Maclin’s attitude and consistency. If forced to choose in the 5th round; it’s Maclin.
So, there you have it. These decisions only scratch the surface of what you may face during a fantasy year, and Lord knows it isn’t a sure thing no matter what decision is made. I’ve tried to give you some things to think about and help you make a decision if confronted with one. I believe through some study, and analysis you can give your team a better than average shot of taking down the title.
are your knowledge and opinions on current fantasy football topics
The Ten Commandments of Fantasy Football
The Ten Commandments of Fantasy Football
By: Rick Fleeger
The Asylum Fantasy Football Podcast
Asylumfantasyfootball.com
The first rule of any social interaction is to never t
alk about religion or politics. So, I know it’s risky to talk about the Ten Commandments as they relate to fantasy football. Regardless of your beliefs, I think most reasonable people can agree that not killing, stealing, and cheating are pretty good rules to live by. With that in mind, here are the 10 commandments that all fantasy owners should live by. Print these off, take them to your draft, and tape them to your cubicle wall. Resist the temptation to stray from these basic rules to play by. Not a reader? These commandments were featured in Podcast 39- Don’t be that Guy at asylumfantasyfootball.com (posted 5/25/12).
I. Thou Shall Draft Running Backs Early and Often
I know the league has changed. With the advent or PPR leagues, I understand that fantasy football has changed. However, that does not change the importance of having a consistent stable of running backs. The days of 10 of the first 12 draft picks being running backs are gone…and for good reason. But, don’t be fooled into thinking you should fill your QB and WR positions first and ignore the RB position (don’t laugh, that theory is being floated out there). In a standard twelve team league, 12 QBs, 24 RBs, and 24 WRs will start each week. I can’t fault you for drafting Aaron Rogers early, but if you miss out on him, Brees, and Brady, there is a plenty of comparable value in slots 4-12. Looking at the WR position, by my rankings, there are at least 60 viable fantasy starters. Conversely, I can find only 25 RBs who can be considered viable starters. Therefore, once the top talent at QB and WR are gone, focusing on getting 3 of those RBs will put you at a serious competitive advantage.
II. Thou Shall Not Draft a Kicker or Defense Before the Final Two Rounds
I’m not going to spend a lot of time going over the Kicker position…wait until the last round and pick a kicker from a good offense….enough said. The Defense position is slightly more complicated. Invariably, defenses will start coming off of the board in the 6th and 7th rounds of your drafts. Top Defenses such as the Jets, Steelers, and Ravens were all taken early in many fantasy drafts in 2011. However, a look at last year’s statistics show teams such as Detroit and Seattle among the top 5 fantasy defenses. Moral of the story? Wait until Round 14 to draft your Defense and be willing to play matchups each week. Use your mid-round picks to load up on depth at the skill positions and to find that sleeper that will win you a championship.
III. Thou Shall not Auto Draft
To me, the best day of the fantasy season is draft day. I look forward to it like I used to look forward to Christmas. Auto drafting not only takes all of the fun out of the draft, it also removes all of the skill. Anyone can shuffle around names on a list. You need to be there to gauge the way your draft is going to make value picks. If you can’t be at the draft, call in or send someone you trust to draft for you.
IV. Thou Shall Not Overvalue Players from Your Favorite Team
We’ve all been in this situation. A player from our favorite team is available as our pick comes near. However, you have him ranked below five players that also remain on the board. You say to yourself, “I’m going to take him. It will make watching the games more fun”. Don’t fall into this trap. The only thing worse than leaving better value on the table is being forced to watch your mistake for 16 weeks. I know it’s difficult, but you have to separate team loyalty from your fantasy squad.
V. Thou Shall Not Speak Honestly of Targeted Players to Fellow Owners
I know it sounds strange to suggest that you lie in the context of the Ten Commandments, but we’ll give you a pass just this once. In all likelihood, you are drafting with friends or colleagues you speak to frequently. Simply put, if you’re targeting a player/sleeper, keep your mouth shut. To gain an advantage, don’t tip your hand.
VI. Thou Shall Rank Your Own Players and Draft Accordingly
Every league is different. With keepers and uncommon scoring systems, you can’t rely 100% on someone else’s rankings. While we do encourage you to use all resources available (especially asylumfantasyfootball.com), you must create rankings based on your individual scoring systems. More importantly, don’t be the guy drafting based upon the rankings in a magazine. That magazine was published in March. The rankings hold little value in August and September.
VII. Thou Shall Value Every Pick as if Your Season Depended on It
Here lies the biggest difference between winners and losers in fantasy football. Almost anyone who has watched fifteen minutes of NFL Network can draft the first 5 rounds. Championships are won in round 6-13. This is where you can target your sleepers and stock pile the depth you need to survive the long season. Don’t lose your focus or sobriety as the draft drags on and you’ll have plenty of time to celebrate in January.
VIII. Thou Shall Not Draft Players on IR
This commandment speaks for itself. Every year, a player or two with fantasy value suffer a season ending injury during the preseason. And, every year, somebody drafts them in your fantasy league. Don’t be that guy! Do your research and come to the draft prepared.
IX. Thou Shall Set Your Lineup Every Week
You owe it to yourself and your league to put your best possible lineup out there each week. It is imperative that you adjust for injuries and bye weeks every week. Also, it’s a duty of the commissioner to ensure that this is being done by all owners all of the time. If they are not, you must use your powers to ensure that the competitive integrity is maintained in your league.
X. Thou Shall Finish Thy Season
No matter how well we prepare, sometimes seasons don’t go our way. Injuries or bad luck can doom even the greatest expert’s season. It’s easy to give up on the season once you are eliminated from playoff contention. As stated in IV, you owe it to the other owners in your league to play to the end of the season. Don’t be the guy who allows someone to back into the playoffs because you stopped managing your team.
My 2012 NFL Predictions
As everyone knows, the New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The season after they defended their last championship in the 2008 season, the Giants won the NFC East with a record of 1
2–4 and also were the number one seed in the NFC. They would go on to lose to the Philadelphia Eagles 23-11 in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Giants that season were the NFC favorites to play in the Super Bowl, but they couldn’t repeat as champs. We will see if they can be repeat Super Bowl Champions for the first team in their team’s history.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots 14-2
The schedule is very favorable for the New England Patriots in 2012. Their two toughest opponents are the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. They also play the AFC South and NFC West this year. There’s no reason why this team can’t win 14 or 15 games.
2. New York Jets 9-7
A lot of questions surrounding this team. Most of the talk is with Tebow, but their defense will be the key for them being successful in 2012. Expect Mark Sanchez to have his best season as a pro.
3. Buffalo Bills
Got off to a great start early last year, but faded late. The play of Ryan Fitzpatrick will be a key, but so will that defense. Mario Williams will provide an upgrade, but I don’t think it’s enough to get to the playoffs in 2012.
4. Miami Dolphins
I really like Dolphins new head coach Joe Philblin. Dolphins drafted new QB in Ryan Tannehill, but I don’t expect him to see the field in 2012. Can Chad Johnson return to playing like the old Chad Johnson? A lot of questions with this team, but they are going in the right direction. Too soon to contend in the AFC East
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Ravens were a Lee Evans touchdown away from going to the Super Bowl last season. While their window is closing, they still are the team to beat in AFC North. Defense, led by Ray Lewis is a year older.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Steelers say they want to be a smash mouth football, but that will be hard to do without Rashard Mendenhall. He may miss the entire season with an ACL injury he suffored last season. Team has questions about Mike Wallace, James Harrison’s knee injury. A lot will be on the plate of Big Ben in 2012. I never count out the Steelers under Mike Tomlin and/Ben Roesthlisburger.
3. Cincinnati Bengals 8-8
The Bengals surprised everyone last season considering they had a young team. They didn’t a team with a winning record last season, but yet they got into the playoffs. If they want to return trip, they will have to. The schedule is a lot difficult being that they were a playoff team a year ago. Defense, which was ranked 7th in the NFL last season will have to be even better if they expect to contend in the AFC North.
4. Cleveland Browns 4-12
While the Browns drafted both a running back and a quarterback, they still have questions on offense. Defense did finish 10th in the league last year, so there’s your positive. Division is tough, so you can’t expect too much from this team in 2012
AFC South
1. Houston Texans 11-5
Team is loaded on offense as everyone knows. Defense shouldn’t skip a beat without Mario Williams. I expect the Texans to runaway with the South.
2. Tennesse Titans 8-8
Their quarterback position will be the key if they are a success for or not in 2012. If Hasselback starts, they have a outside chance of making the playoffs. If Locker starts, it is unlikely.
3. Indianapolis Colts 4-12
Out goes Peyton Manning, Bill Polian, in comes Andrew Luck and Ryan Grigson as General Manager. Times have changed in Indianapolis. This club now starts the process of rebuilding.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13
Very young team and not sure Blaine Gabbert is the answer at quarterback. They did draft Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State. This team could be the worst in the NFL in 2012.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
This team finished 7-9 and one game out of first place despite all of their injuries last season. Jamaal Charles is back from injury as well as Matt Cassel. Romeo Crennel takes over an ideal situation in Kansas City. This defense will carry them to a division title in 2012.
2. San Diego Chargers 10-6
Philip Rivers had a down seasons last year. I expect him to more like the Philip Rivers from 2009-2010 and not the one that threw 27 TDs and 20 INTs. Their defense, which looked suspect at times will have to improve. They were middle of the road last year. (16th in the NFL). I believe the Chargers will win the wildcard.
3, Denver Broncos 8-8
Most people believe the Broncos will win the AFC West, but I’m not one of those people. Peyton Manning will make a difference on the field, but he doesn’t have much help on that offense. The old Peyton Manning could carry a team, but can he still be expected to carry a team after the neck surgery. Brian Dawkins, the leader of the defense is retired, so it will be up to future hall of famer Champ Bailey and Von Miller to carry it.
4. Oakland Raiders 6-10
A lot of talent on offense. Carson Palmer will be better in year two with a full training camp under his belt. Having Darren McFadden back always helps a quarterback. McFadden is one of the keys for the Raiders ending their 9 year playoff drought. The other key and their biggest is the defense. The Raider defense is the main reason why they were sitting at home in January and not playing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round of the playoffs. Raiders haven’t done anything to improve the defense and until they do, they will be at the bottom of the division.
NFC East
1. New York Giants 10-6: Giants don’t have a lot of holes. Their running game and offensive line are questions. Giants did address the line in NFL draft. The Giants had the worse running attack in the NFL in the regular season. If they want to repeat, this cannot happen again. On defense, cornerback is their weak spot. Prince Amukamara is the guy the teams wants to fill the second corner spot opposite Corey Webster. The schedule is difficult especially late. I am still a believe of this team and I believe they will win the NFC East again
2. Dallas Cowboys 10-6: Wouldn’t shock or surprise me if the Cowboys won the NFC East. Their schedule is much more favorable than the New York Giants. Morris Claiborne, rookie from LSU, should help in their secondary immediately. Claiborne is my early season pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The two keys for the Cowboys is health, especially at the running back position and the play of Tony Romo. Romo had an outstanding season if you look at his numbers, he just throws interceptions at the wrong time. While everyone is picking the Eagles to bounce back this year, don’t sleep on the Cowboys. I have them making the playoffs.
3. Phildelphia Eagles 9-7: Some people have picked the Eagles as a dark-horse in the NFC, but I’m not one of those people. This team still has some question marks on that offensive line. While I do believe they can make the playoffs, I just can’t pick them to win the NFC East. Michael Vick has to stay 100% healthy if they have any shot.
4. Washington Redskins 6-10: I liked what the Redskins did this off-season (aside from the Kirk Cousins draft pick) Robert Griffin III his all the talent in the world to become a successful NFL quarterback. The Redskins also addressed their offensive line in the draft, which will help RGIII. This team has a good defense and that will also help you win games. Skins are going in the right directions.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers 13-3: While I don’t believe the Packers will only lose one regular season game like last year, I do believe this is the team to beat in the NFC. Packers addressed their defense in the draft by taking defensive players in their first six picks. Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy are players that could help the Packers immediately. The question mark for me is the running game Ryan Grant, who split carries with James Starks last season is gone. Can Starks carry most of the load in 2012? Packers are a passing team, so I expect Aaron Rodgers to have another MVP type season.
2. Chicago Bears 11-5: This is your dark-horse in the NFC. The Bears went out and finally add a big play wide receiver to their roster. Brandon Marshall will give Jay Cutler that go to guy that he can rely on. Bears also drafted Alshon Jeffery from South Carolina, who provide Cutler another big time target. The addition of Michael Bush will help take pressure off Matt Forte. This team if healthy could make a Super Bowl run. Remember, they went to the NFC Championship in 2010.
3. Detroit Lions 8-8: Lions fans finally had something to cheer about for the first time since 1999, a playoff berth. The bad news, they get a much tougher schedule. This team has had a number of off the field arrest in the off-season. I believe the Bears if they remain healthy, will be a better team than the Lions this season.
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-11: How will Adrian Peterson play after his ACL injury? Can Christian Ponder progress? Can their defense improved form being ranked 26th against the pass last season? A lot of questions with this team and not too many answers.
NFC South
1. Carolina Panthers 11-5: Cam Newton surprised people last year with his play and knowledge of the offense right away. In year two, I’m expecting much bigger things from Newton and this offense. Their headed rushing attack is always their staple of this team. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart I expect will have another big season. The Panther defense is the key. They lost a lot of games for them last season. They will have to improve from 24th against the run and 25th against the pass. I believe they will and that’s why I have the Panthers winning the NFC South.
2. Atlanta Falcons 9-7: This is a make or break season for quarterback Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith. They both have shown the ablity to help get the Falcons to the playoffs, but have unable to win a game. Falcons did get some offensive line help in the draft, so that may help Ryan. Their secondary has been a problem for years but the Falcons went out and traded for Asante Samuel. Some people believe he is past his prime. Others like myself at age 31, he still has some game left. He need to help that secondary if they want to make the playoffs this season.
2. New Orleans Saints 9-7 : The commissioner came down hard on the Saints in the off-season. No Sean Peyton for the entire season, No Jonathan Vilma for the entire season and their interim head coach Joe Vitt will sit out the first six games of the season. Can quarterback Drew Brees handle all the responsibilities with this team. I think they will have some struggles.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12: Let me just say, I loved the hire of Greg Schiano. I believe he will be a great NFL head coach and he won’t allow this team to quit like it did last season. Bucs are a young team and it will take them some time to improve.
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers 11-5: The 49ers and coach Jim Harbaugh shocked everyone last season by getting to the NFC Championship. Best thing going for the 49ers is they play in the worst division in football. They do play the Patriots, Packers, Lions and Giants, all playoff teams from a year ago. We will see if Alex Smith can do a repeat of what he did last season.
2. Seattle Seahawks 8-8: The Seahawks will be a much better team than people thing. It is always tough to go to the 12th man and win on the road. The big question is their quarterback situation. Will it be Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson or Russell Wilson?
3. Arizona Cardinals 5-11: This is Kevin Kolb’s job to lose. If he doesn’t produce this season, Cardinals will be looking for other options in 2013.
4. St. Louis Rams 4-12: Sam Bradford really has a lot to prove with not a lot of weapons around him. They still do have Steven Jackson, but they have a terrible run defense.
NFL MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Robert Griffin III
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Morris Claiborne
Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers
Super Bowl: Patriots vs Packers
Super Bowl Champions: New England Patriots
Mack Brown Goes Jerry Jones
When I walked into Aggie Outfitters, in College Station, TX, and saw a T-shirt that read, "Good Riddance" printed above a long horn cattle with it's horns sawn off, I must admit it gave me a lau
gh. The T-shirt bonanza of SEC emblems and decals reflected just how significant the move to the SEC has been for Texas A&M. The season tickets are sold out, parking permits for tailgating are almost gone. Coach Kevin Sumlin is walking with a Mike Tomlin like swagger, after having the best recruiting class in the schools recent histroy. The decision to refuse to be the little brother, declare independence from Austin and strike out on their own, has been a terrific decision for the Aggies. The support and enthusiasm is at an all time high. While I expected the A&M fanbase to get behind this decision, I did not expect the crazy reaction from former big brother Texas.
Oklahoma as the exception, UT is now in a conference of little brothers, playing in some of college footballs Motel 6 type venues. It appears that as the reality soaked in, panic overcame the athletic department.
It appears to me that someone demanded something be done to keep the big brother image in tact. Mac Brown tried a quarterback controversy telling the press both Ash and McCoy would compete, then Ash injured his hamstring. When that stunt fizzled Mack must have paniced himself. I am not sure if MacK Brown decided to call Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys, or if he even knows Jerry, but his next choice has Jerry written all over it.
The richest school int the country, with it's own television network, the one that finishes in the top three of recruiting classes every year, the great Texas has pulled the unthinkable. Yes, they recruited a player from Penn State. The one University that should not need to profit from the disaster of State College, PA, was Texas. The last program that should have wanted to be any where near the scandal, took the plunge this week and recruited a Penn State player supposedly from San Antonio. Texas in loan shark like action struck out and took a kicker, that's right a kicker. One might see a school that is under funded like LA Tech or UAB, trying to buy the property out of this sports foreclosure, but not Texas. This is the perverbial 1 percenter of major universities, with more money than all the Ivey League combined. With all of the power and might of Texas and in a state rich in High School teams, full of place kickers, why would they risk looking like a slime bag? One has to ask why?
There can only be one explanation, Mack Brown is feeling the heat from his mediocre record and the recruiting pool is leaking, now that the SEC is on his home state turf. I suggest Mack head to publicity stunt artist annonymous immediately, and begin a 12 step program for the terminally under noticed. What's next? Hiring Jerry Jones as a spokesman, threatening to kick OU's butt this year. This is worse than Romney's PR dept.
If this keeps up I am sure the good riddance shirts will be in short supply, and more little brothers will be searching for the exits.
Cam Newton: Sophomore Slump?
For the first time in quite some time the Carolina Panthers are making not only local headlines, but national headlines. Ryan Kalil certainly helped make that happen by taking out a full page ad in t
he Charlotte Observer guaranteeing a trip to the Super Bowl this season. However, the primary reason for the national exposure is Cam Newton.
Everyone is asking the question, will Cam Newton have a sophomore slump? My answer without any doubt, is no. The reason I believe this, Cam was able to participate in OTA's and has a full training camp to prepare for the upcoming season. We all saw what he did last season with limited time to prepare for the season, there is no reason to doubt that his numbers will only get better in 2012.
Rod Chudzinski has implemented some new looks for Cam Newton and the Panthers offense so they are not as predictable as they may have been in 2011. Though it seemed the Panthers didn't need help with play makers, they signed Mike Tolbert to create a three-headed monster in the backfield and recently traded for Louis Murphy from the Oakland Raiders. You do the math, Steve Smith, Brandon Lafell, David Gettis, Louis Murphy, Kealoha Pilares, Joe Adams, Greg Olsen, Gary Barnidge, Johnathon Stewart, and Mike Tolbert are all options to receive passes by Cam Newton this season.
So let's get down to the question that all fantasy football gurus want to know, when do I draft Cam Newton? My prediction is Cam's ADP will be in the fourth round, so draft him in the third round. Cam should be in the top ten as far as QB's are drafted in each league behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rivers, Ryan, E. Manning, Vick, and Schaub. These QB's I have being drafted ahead of Newton in order. If I were you, once I see Rivers taken off the board, that's the time to snag Cam.
As my first article for Pigskin Boss I want to wish everyone luck this season in their fantasy leagues. I am excited for everyone's questions, opinions, and criticism as the season progresses.
You can follow me on twitter, @JasonSaulter.
headline
Tom Brady having too many weapons really? His offensive line sucks and he has a midget for a running back. He's not exactly the young arm he used to be and frankly I see New England missing expectatio
ns as is the case when you loose a Superbowl. Yes they have an easy schedule but look for Brady to get injured this year, look for them to run out of gas from last year's long run.
Too Many Weapons on the Pats?
Does New England have too many weapons on offense to make anyone except Tom Brady a viable fantasy option? Does the addition of Brandon Lloyd and Visanthe Shiancoe help the fantasy worth of the
entire Patriots squad or make every player, save Brady, a non factor due to New England's tendency to spread the wealth?
There are two ways to look at this, the first is that: No it will make every player more deadly like it did in 2007 when they were throwing up an average of 33 points a game. When a team is scoring like this every player will get a taste of the pie. Both Welker and Moss had a banner year. The Pats used a running back by committee and while none were stellar, Maroney and Morris each had years worthy of a number two back.
Last year the Pats had a two headed monster lining up every play with Gronkowski and Hernandez both very capable of scoring points. This cut into Welkers production but not enough to make him a number 2 WR. This year we have the big three back and have added another big and fast TE and the ultimate playmaker in Lloyd. Lloyd who is familier with McDaniels and his playbook will be able to step in and make an immediate impact.
I am seeing the possibility that the Pats are going to spread the wealth and still be able to make fantasy owners happy. We might not see the stratosphere like numbers Moss put up but you should be happy with Welker, Lloyd, Hernandez and Gronk. Who knows, Belichick will probably decide to center the entire offense around Brandon Bolden and we are all S.O.L.
So in my sage advice, take some Patriots, but done expect the gianormous numbers we might have seen in the past. There are players on other teams that will put up better numbers on an individuel basis, but as a team the Pats will put up the most fantasy points around. Brady is the only truly safe bet on the Pats to put up solid numbers week in and week out.
Raiders are no Joke
As a diehard Broncos fan and season ticket holder, this statement is very hard for me to say. The Raiders are going to be fantasy gold this year. Carson Palmer has had a year and an entire offseason
to learn the playbook, players and system the Raiders are using. The death of Al Davis also means that the coaching staff will not be looking over their shoulders all year, a more relaxed coaching staff will do wonders for this franchise. A healthy Darren McFadden will force teams to pack the box to stop this beast and that will open up all sorts of options for Palmer. With speedsters Ford (14.7 YPC) and Moore (15.2 YPC) to spread the field expect heavy doses of DHB and Murphy over the middle. Palmer will be a steal in the draft in any round after the 6th. He might very well turn in the best performance of any QB in the AFC West (sorry Rivers and Manning, and Cassel you know you were never in the running). Expect Palmer's YPG to float right around 300 and 1-2 TD passes every game.
Mike Wallace Needs To Wake Up
If you were considering drafting Mike Wallace of the Pittsburgh Steelers, you may want to think again. The letter below will certainly demotivate his chances of putting up ponts this year.
>Dear Mike,
We had a nice paycheck here in Steeler land but when you did not show up we gave it to our other star receiver.
Steelers.
Where Do You Draft Foster and Richardson? My Thoughts on Yahoo's Top 10
When you start breaking down Yahoo's Top 10 Overall Fantasy Players you are essentially analyzing the Top 10 fantasy running backs for 2012. If these rankings were based on 6 points per Passing TD yo
u would see Tom Brady and Drew Brees crack the Top 10 and I would be campaigning for Aaron Rodgers to be ranked #1 overall.
Focusing on RB’s only, I have two issues with Yahoo’s Top 10.
Issue #1 - I am part of the uprising looking to dethrone Arian Foster.
Regardless of the value your league places on passing TD’s, you shouldn’t use the #1 overall pick to draft Arian Foster.
You might argue that the Texans use a rush first offense that features one of the best zone blocking schemes in the NFL. Well, I can’t argue with that. "Denver and Houston rushed the ball 546 times in 2011, about 10-percent more than any other team." Take Tebow (122 carries) out of the equation and Houston’s preference to run is unmatched. (Thanks David Gonos! - 1)
But here’s the catch. Arian Foster is not the best running back in the NFL and he may not even be the most talented back on his own team.
"Since 2002, only one running back (Jamaal Charles, 2010) broke a higher percentage of his rushing attempts for 10 yards or more than Foster’s backup Ben Tate did last season.
Tate was also more efficient inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. Foster was given 27 attempts in this range last season and he converted 11 times, eight of which were touchdowns, for a first-down rate of 40.7 percent. Ben Tate was given just eight attempts and converted five of them (including two touchdowns) for a 62.5 percent success rate." (Thanks Ken Daube! - 2)
How can the Houston coaching staff ignore these numbers? I agree with Ken Duabe’s opinion that at least 40% of the carries will go to Tate and thus you should expect a 10 to 20% decrease in Foster’s fantasy production.
I’m not arguing that Foster doesn't deserve to be a first round pick, but I do believe you’d be foolish to draft him and then wait any longer than the 8th or 9th Rounds to draft Tate in a 10 team league; you’re not going to get this type of upside with any other backup in the NFL and most the experts agree.
In ESPN’s 3rd Expert Mock Draft Eric Karabell selected Arian Foster with the #2 overall pick and then drafted Tate in the 6th round of 12 team league.
The downside to drafting Foster and handcuffing him with Tate this early is that you are typically going to miss out on better RB2 / FLEX options like BJGE, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Shonn Greene.
If you are an advocate of drafting an RB with your 1st pick, I will suggest Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy are better options. They have proven to be more durable than Arian Foster and they are both guaranteed to be their team’s primary ball carriers. Each back was handed the ball in over 60% of their team's rushing plays in 2012.
I am downgrading Foster’s fantasy value just slightly because of Tate’s potential to see an increase in touches and the high cost of handcuffing this dynamic duo. Also keep in mind that Houston lost half of its O-Line to free agency this offseason.
Issue #2 - I don’t draft Rookie RB’s in the 1st Round
I’m not questioning Trent Richardson’s talent, I just go by the numbers.
Christopher Harris, ESPN.com: “First, there’s the rookie factor. Is it impossible for a rookie RB to turn in a top-10 fantasy season? No: In the past 10 years, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton did it in ’08, Peterson did it in ’07, Maurice Jones-Drew did it in ’06 and Clinton Portis did it in ’02. But that’s it. Five guys in 10 years.”
When you look at Rookie RB ADP vs. Scoring Position "the first rookie running back drafted in Fantasy leagues has ended up as the top rookie running back at the end of the season just FOUR times in the last decade. That means Richardson has a 40-percent chance of being the highest-scoring rookie running back this season." (Thanks again David Gonos! - 3)
Like I said it’s just a numbers game. Well, that and he plays for the Cleveland Browns. With one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, the Rookie RB is going to see a high percentage of Eight-Man Fronts.
I have Richardson ranked just below Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, and Fred Jackson. I will however take my chances on Cleveland’s featured back ahead of Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, and Ahmad Bradshaw.
Thanks for reading!
Be sure you check out what our bosses think about these players in our iDraft War Room. You can follow me on Twitter @GoProFS24.
Quotes & Statistics are from the following sources:
1 - http://davidgonos.com/fantasy/football/taking-ray-rice-first-overall-over-arian-foster/
2 - http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k12_decisionstexansRB
3 - http://davidgonos.com/fantasy/football/2012-fantasy-rookie-rb-rankings/
Is Mike Wallace This Year's Vincent Jackson
Vincent Jackson was a fantasy draft disaster two seasons ago, when held out over a contract dispute. Mike Wallace brings the similar downsize risk to all those selecting him in early fantasy drafts th
is year. The more you read about Wallace and the Steelers, the more frightened you should be from picking him. Jackson in some ways has yet to recover from his hold out, and hopefully rebounds this year earning his 55 million and some fantasy points for those who choose him. If Wallace is not in camp come August,in this Pigskin Bosses mind he's a pass.
No sure fantasy studs on Broncos except for one.
The Broncos this year will put up lots of points and win lots of games, that being said there is only one true fantasy stud on that squad worth a pick in the 1st two rounds. If you are sitting on the
9+ pick in your draft and Manning is available..... Grab him!! The reason for there being only one stud on the Broncos is Manning is new to the team and has not yet found his favorite target. There in no number 1 RB, Moreno and McGahee are both good, but neither is great. Decker and Thomas are both solid, neither is great. One or maybe even both could emerge as a stud, but not until Manning findes his new Harrison, Wayne or Clark to funnel the ball to. Right now Manning will be trying to find that next "goto" guy but in the meantime it will be offense by committee, a la Patriots of 04/05. This means only Manning will be a sure thing fantasy stud on the Broncos for the 2012 season.
The dreaded "Team Defense" drop off
Most Fantasy Football Leagues require a "Team Defense" to be drafted and started. Depending on each leagues scoring system, there is typically a huge drop-off from the top three selections during the
draft.
One of the areas where I believe many fantasy owners will miss the boat during their draft prep is evaluating each Team Defense for both the Team Defense spot on their rosters, but also how the offensive players you are drafting will perform during the matchups with those same teams.
For Example: There were only three teams in the NFL that during the 2011 season did not surrender one "A-Gap" or directly "Up the Middle" rushing touchdown. The 49ers, Jets, and Redskins. SO this year when your prepping for your draft make sure to give Team "D" some LOVE
Gronk not top TE, not 1st rounder
Rob Gronkowski is a top 2 tight end, but a 1st rounder? Remember, his '11 success came with A. Hernandez out for awhile and the Pats are two-TE operation, not Gronk #1 and Hernandez his backup. He'll
still put up #s, but think Jimmy Graham may be better.
2012 Team Schedules
You might as well just give the Packers and Patriots a ticket to the playoffs. Their schedules are jokes.
